Shopify (SHOP) Fundamental Analysis and Fair Value Estimate
**1. Revenue and Growth:**
- **Q1 2024 Revenue**: Increased by 23% YoY to $1.9 billion.
- **Adjusted Growth**: 29% growth when adjusting for the sale of logistics businesses.
**2. Profitability:**
- **Gross Profit**: Grew by 33%, reaching $957 million.
- **Gross Margin**: Improved to 51.4% from 47.5% last year.
- **Net Loss**: $273 million or $0.21 per share, compared to a net income of $68 million last year.
**3. Cash Flow:**
- **Free Cash Flow**: $232 million in Q1 2024, up from $86 million last year.
- **Free Cash Flow Margin**: Doubled to 12% YoY.
**4. Balance Sheet:**
- **Cash and Marketable Securities**: $5.2 billion as of March 31, 2024.
- **Net Cash Position**: $4.3 billion after accounting for convertible notes.
**5. Market Position and Competition:**
- **GMV**: Grew by 23% to $60.9 billion in Q1 2024.
- **Merchant Solutions**: Driven by growth in GMV and Shopify Payments.
**6. Valuation Metrics:**
- **Price-to-Sales Ratio**: 14.1x vs. industry average of 16.9x.
- **Fair PS Ratio**: Estimated fair PS ratio is 10.1x, indicating potential overvaluation based on current metrics.
**7. Fair Value Estimates:**
- **Morningstar**: $68 per share.
- **Simply Wall St**: $58.61 per share.
- **Yahoo Finance**: Approximately $49.16 per share.
**Conclusion:**
- **Fair Value Range**: $50 to $68 per share.
- **Considerations**: Strong revenue growth, improving margins, and robust cash flow support the higher valuation, while economic cycle exposure and SMB customer risks may introduce volatility.
