AAL trade ideas
AAL - Algorithm HypothesisThis is my hypothesis to find the optimal entry point, based on algorithmic patters observed following this stock:
The optimal entry point is when all the following events occurs:
1) Price closed below the lower Bollinger band (20 day period)
2) The (support) is relatively close to the lower Bollinger band. In this case, lower Bollinger band is at 12.11 and (support) is found at 10.24
3) The 9 day moving average is above (or crossing soon) the 15 day moving average.
4) Therefore, the optimal entry point lies within the lower Bollinger band and (support). In this case the entry point should be anywhere between equal or greater than 10.24 and equal or less than 12.11. That gives us a total variance space of 1.87 dollars (which is not great because I believe the variance space should be less than a dollar, however we are getting close)
So, how do we deal with the variance risk? By following this amazing advice I got yesterday from user techserve2020 : enter your trade slowly, meaning you buy small amounts as you keep observing the stock. So for example, I want to purchase a total of 200 shares of AAL, so I will buy 50 first, observe what happens, buy another 50, keep observing and so on and so forth, as long as the price does not trade below the 10.24 already established and doesn't exceed the middle Bollinger band, which I believe is at around 14 dollars. I think this is really good advice because you are minimizing your risk, while still being able to enter the trade completely.
This is the equation to back up my theory:
if < ;
< ;
< <
Where, P = price, LB = lower Bollinger band price, S1 = (Support) and E = optimal entry price
Let me know what you guys think? And if there's a coder out here, can you help me turn this pseudocode into syntax code? I appreciate all comments and thoughts!
AAL second wave risk managingfeel free to pm me if you want me to private inform you about AAL signals .
AAL BUY (AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC)Hi there. Price is forming a continuation pattern to the upside. Wait for the price to complete the pattern and watch strong price action for buy.
$AAL - Drop and GoThis week I have been following American Airlines closely. My past self would’ve been absolutely horrified with what’s being going on in the airline industry, but now that my mindset has switched towards a technical approach, I couldn’t be any happier. The airline industry has both, the volatility and volume, desired to enter a trade. Here are some of my observations and conclusions:
1 - AAL heading towards its support level, which is set at 10.24 based on short term projections of 100 bars. This means the stock is ready to fall at least an extra 20% from its current price of 13.01.
2 - Resistance level is at 28 based on the same projections from above. Great room for growth within the next 6 weeks, however my exit target is set at 15$ because I am working on reducing my holding periods.
3 - For the last 3 months, AAL (and to be honest every other airline stock) has had massive price movements of over 40% which I like because even if you don’t get to ride the full wave, a 10% return per trade is also great.
What will I do?
Entry Target - 10.30
Stop loss - 9.00
Exit Target - 15.00
Given my portfolio size, I will be purchasing 200 shares. If my trade goes well, I am expecting a $940 from a 2,060 dollar investment. Even though 940 dollars is not much, my goal is to become really good at getting a consistent return percentage per trade.
If my trade goes badly, I am expecting to lose $260.
What events am I am waiting for?
-For the current price to close below the lower bollinger band 20 day period using the 1 hour candle stick chart .
-For the 9 day moving average to cross above the 15 day moving average using the 30 min candle stick chart.
Any thoughts? Is someone else trading this stock? If so, what is your plan and what’s your strategy and exit target? I appreciate any comments from experienced day traders than can help me learn some new things.
$AAL - Holding the line on the flag pattern. Today's market action and an adjustment to American's bond issuance was the primary driver for the continuation sell off in $AAL shares today.
I am still in for the next run and looking for either a reversal back above $13.50 or holding of the support zone at $11.20.
American Airlines - AALIt is still a firm HOLD.
But against the fundamental and following the technical analysis, the prices should go up if they will not brake the support level (dotted red line)
$AAL will open below the low, target is $13Two bear flags formed each of the last two day lowering $AAL
Targeting $13 on the next bear flag
Possible Bullish after JAC> JAC (Jump Across the Creek) Done
> Retest of resistance from breakout and turn to support level as expected
> Bullish trendlines
$AAL - Strong flag pattern set-up in American Airlines. I like the support zone here in $AAL for two reasons. They raised capital at a price of $13.50/share and obtained super favorable terms on bonds that won't be due for some time.
The volume today was over half the float. That is the third highest volume day in the last year and typically those can be followed by rapid rise type follow through.
Three of the biggest banks on WallStreet are running the $AAL offering and they are not likely to allow the stock to fall below the secondary offering price.
This gives American plenty of liquidity to navigate back to profitability as we exit Corona travel restrictions.
There was a really strong flag pattern in the daily on the stock. I expect it to create another post. Possibly as soon as tomorrow and think that move could be worth up to $3.24/share.
**This is all strictly based on my own opinion and analysis. Do your own research.
Long Long Long The price should go down to yellow line(13.54) or to (12.97) or to (10.34)
From these potential station the price may moving up to 19.50.
See you there
AAL - Short!Currently trading below $14 support, albeit slightly.
If there is a second wave and people stop traveling again, we could see airlines take a bit hit. Nothing you're unaware of.
We're banking on the uptick in the beginning of June was just a pull-back for our bigger downtrend.
A short was entered and we'll look to collect premiums at $12.
Passenger Traffic Are Recovering SteadilyEven as many international flight remains shutdown, many domestic flight are recovering especially in many countries who already recovered from corona-virus, such as China, India, Middle East and some Asian countries. Even in the USA, the domestic flight are recovering progressively. The data from flight radar shows that airline traffic are steadily increasing. However the stock price are beaten down badly and remain under valued recently. Many peoples are just focusing on FAANG stock that already been dangerously overvalued due to Fed money printing that concentrate on blue chip technological stock. In the long run, the airline stock are the one who has lot of upside potential.
www.flightradar24.com
American Airlines Group Buy! A total of 11 analyst ratings have been issued for the American Airlines share in the past twelve months. Of these, 5 were “Buy”, 1 “Hold” and 5 “Sell”. In summary, this results in a “hold” rating for the American Airlines share. On a short-term basis, based on the studies available last month, the share is considered a “hold”. During this period, 2 analysts rated the title as Buy, 0 as Hold and 1 as Sell. The ratings performed by the analysts resulted in an average price target of USD 19.09. The security thus has an upside potential of 15.77 percent, based on the last closing price (USD 16.49). A "Buy" recommendation is derived from this. The bottom line is that American Airlines receives a “hold” rating for this point of the analysis.
Note: Be careful concerning a secon coranavirus wave!
AAL Reversal AAL is currently in a downward trend, but I am thinking that there could be a reversal of the stock very soon. It seems like the recent down move could be to fill the two gaps from earlier in the month, so once that is done, the stock can move back up. There is a support level at 14.6 that has been retested several times: first on March 9th and during April, and now again in June. This combined with the recent news that Covid restrictions are being eased in a lot of states is positive news that could fuel a reversal in the stock price. The RSI indicator approaching 30 is another sign that AAL could see a bounce in the coming days.
I would love to hear feedback on my idea to improve future analysis and I am open to discussion about my idea or hear any constructive criticism.
Potential Bullish> Price closes to the cloud which means reversal
> Shortening of Volume when price going down
