Extrapolating previous cycle price action to predict the futureUsing the Indicator: 4-Year Cycles
Cycle Analysis:
Cycle 1 to Cycle 2 Changes:
ATH increased from $1,160 to $19,676 (16.96x increase)
Gain percentage dropped from 52,287.39% to 12,804.2%
Loss percentage slightly improved from 86.9% to 83.11%
Cycle 2 to Cycle 3 Changes:
ATH increased from $19,676 to $68,979 (3.51x increase)
Gain percentage dramatically dropped from 12,804.2% to 1,976.94%
Loss percentage improved from 83.11% to 75.93%
Projection for Cycle 4:
Based on the observed pattern of diminishing returns and the logarithmic nature of Bitcoin's growth:
Projected ATH: $242,000 to $275,000
(Calculated by applying the observed ATH increase factors)
Projected Gain: Approximately 800-1200%
(Continuing the trend of diminishing percentage gains)
Projected Loss: Around 70-75%
(Following the gradual improvement in loss mitigation)
Each cycle shows a pattern of:
Reduced percentage gains
Slightly improved loss recovery
Continued exponential growth in absolute ATH price
ATH Calculation:
Cycle 1 to Cycle 2 growth multiplier: $1,160 → $19,676 = 16.96x
Cycle 2 to Cycle 3 growth multiplier: $19,676 → $68,979 = 3.51x
Observed Growth Multiplier Trend:
Cycle 1 to 2: 16.96x
Cycle 2 to 3: 3.51x
Projection Approach:
Lower Bound Calculation:
Previous ATH: $68,979
Multiplier: 3.51 (conservative)
Lower target: $68,979 × 3.51 = $242,000
Upper Bound Calculation:
Previous ATH: $68,979
Multiplier: 4.0 (slightly more optimistic)
Upper target: $68,979 × 4.0 = $275,91
Gain Percentage Calculation:
Cycle 1: 52,287.39%
Cycle 2: 12,804.2%
Cycle 3: 1,976.94%
Observed Decline Pattern:
Cycle 1 to 2: ~75% reduction in gain percentage
Cycle 2 to 3: ~84% reduction in gain percentage
Projected Gain Range:
Lower bound: 600-800%
Upper bound: 1000-1200%
Loss Percentage Trend:
Cycle 1: 86.9%
Cycle 2: 83.11%
Cycle 3: 75.93%
Projected Loss: 70-75% (continuing the gradual improvement)
Methodology Notes:
Used geometric progression with decreasing multipliers
Considered logarithmic growth pattern
Accounted for diminishing returns observed in previous cycles
Disclaimer:
Ultimately, these projections are mathematical extrapolations based on historical data and should not be considered definitive predictions. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable. This projection is based on historical patterns and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult financial professionals before making investment decisions.
