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BTC Surges on Signal of Trump's US Strategic ReserveWith market reactions trending very positive, COINBASE:BTCUSD saw a big surge today as investors were encouraged by Trump's signaled support for large investments in a US BTC Strategic Reserve fund to back up the Treasury Department and their indicators of a more supportive environment for crypto investors and holders in the United States of America. This comes as a welcome change for residents and businesses engaged with building the ever growing crypto economy which will empower free markets, free thinking, and free people. With over $200M USD positive BINANCE:BTCUSD inflows to Binance in the last 12hr, we can only guess what the total inflows look like right now on an hourly or even minute-by-minute basis across all exchanges worldwide. A large spike in trading volume during the day Sunday fueled traders excitement as many were attracted to the market over the weekend. Your reaction to this good news might depend on what kind of trader you are. Are you Microstrategy? Your stock just went up! Personal investors - "this is great! lets see more!". Well a lot of times people expect good and underestimate the downside. It is a great opportunity here to apply reverse psychology and short the market. This strategy is not right for everyone but there could definitely be opportunity for both long and short entry points when using the informative and actionable MACD Strategy indicator on your charting. Perhaps even learnings will come from this. Have a beautiful day, and remember Habibi, the desert tests your will, not your strength. messari.io
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by LawrenceOfCoinrabia
$BTC 4Hr Analyzing the CRYPTOCAP:BTC coin chart on the 4-hour timeframe: - **Symmetrical Triangle**: A well-structured symmetrical triangle is visible, with equal angles on both sides, indicating potential for an imminent breakout. The price is currently below the upper resistance line, suggesting a possible upward movement soon. A target around $113k has been discussed based on the pole of this pattern. - **Bullish Divergence**: There have been instances of bullish divergence with RSI on the 4-hour chart, particularly noted in May and July 2024, where the RSI was not confirming the price lows, suggesting underlying strength. - **Bearish Divergence**: Conversely, bearish divergences have also been observed, especially when the RSI was overbought, indicating potential short-term pullbacks or corrections. This was notably seen in November 2024, signaling a possible reset before further upward moves. - **Resistance and Support Levels**: - **Resistance**: Key resistance levels were noted around the psychological barrier of $100,000, with movements above this level suggesting strong bullish momentum. - **Support**: The price has found support at various levels, with significant attention being paid to where the 50 EMA and other moving averages lie, particularly after the price drops. - **Trendline Analysis**: The 4-hour chart often shows Bitcoin testing its trendlines, both as support and resistance. A bullish move is often confirmed when the price breaks and holds above these trendlines. - **Volume and Market Sentiment**: There's been discussion about distribution and HODL-ing behavior, with the Long/Short-Term Holder Supply Ratio dropping, suggesting less long-term holding and potentially more active trading or distribution. - **Price Targets**: Based on various analyses, especially around breakout scenarios from patterns like the symmetrical triangle, targets have been suggested around $113k, with some posts on X indicating this could be reached quickly in a lower timeframe setting. - **Current Sentiment**: The sentiment from X posts shows a mix of optimism for continued upward trends with cautions for potential corrections. The recent activity around $100,000 has sparked discussions on whether Bitcoin will continue its bullish run or face a significant correction. In summary, the 4-hour chart for CRYPTOCAP:BTC shows a battle between bullish and bearish forces, with technical patterns like symmetrical triangles indicating potential for significant price moves. The emphasis on divergences, especially with RSI, gives clues on momentum, while the community on X watches for breakouts from key levels to confirm trend directions. Always consider that crypto markets can be influenced by broader market sentiment, macroeconomic news, and regulatory changes, which can alter technical predictions.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by One1D_Trader
1
Navigating the Current Market Turbulence: A Crypto and Stock MarBitcoin is currently trading at approximately $102,200, reflecting a decrease of 2.36% over the last week. Despite a brief rally reaching highs of $108,367.38, the digital currency has faced selling pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 65, indicating that BTC might still be overbought, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) suggests bearish momentum could persist. Investors should be cautious as the market shows signs of volatility. For cryptocurrencies, monitoring RSI and MACD indicators can provide insights into potential buying opportunities.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by pBouDib
The Dangerous Fantasy That's Killing Your Trading CareerAre you still watching YouTube videos of traders showing off their luxury cars and million dollar properties? They make it look so easy to profit from the market. A few clicks here and there. Add some magical indicators. Suddenly you're making thousands of dollars a day. I fell for it hard. I was like you. I wanted something that could get me rich quick. The dream of leaving my 9-5 job to travel the world. I don’t want to worry about money again. Trading seemed like the perfect solution. This costs me $10,000 and five years of my life. The Seductive Lie of Quick Riches You've definitely seen those Instagram posts. Screenshots showing $5,000 profit from one trade, sports cars in the background, and the classic laptop-by-the-beach setup. They tell you they've discovered a "secret strategy" that wins 90% of the time. For just $99, they'll share it with you. It all sounded too good to be true. Right? Think about it. If someone really had a strategy that could turn $1,000 into $100,000 in a month, why would they sell it for $99? They could easily approach any hedge fund and make millions. But they don't. Instead, they're selling courses and signals to hopeful traders like you and me. They spend hours trying to market their products to you while they can just click a button and earn $10,000 in 30 minutes. My Expensive Journey to Reality When I started trading, I thought I'd be different. I was smart, hardworking, and determined. I studied technical analysis, learned about indicators, and even bought some "guaranteed" trading systems. My first few trades were winners. I turned $500 into $1,000 in just a week. I felt invincible. I do have a hand of midas. This was it. I found my holy grail! I could already picture myself quitting my job in a few months. I planned how much I could earn in a year and I could retire my parents.  I started taking bigger risks. Why make $100 per trade when I could make $1,000? Why risk 1% when I could risk 10%? After all, my strategy was "proven" to work. I have the holy grail on hand. I just needed to scale up faster to reach my destination. Then reality hit. Three months later, my account was blown. But I wasn't worried. I just needed to deposit more money and trade better. This cycle repeated until I had lost my entire savings. The Hidden Cost of the Get-Rich-Quick Mindset The real danger isn't just losing money. It's the mindset that trading is a shortcut to getting rich.  You begin to put on bigger risks because you want larger profits. You skip proper education, because you want results now. You ignore risk management, because your account size grows too slow. You chase losses, because you can't accept small setbacks. You jump from strategy to strategy, trying to look for the holy grail. I see traders doing exactly what I did. They risk 50% of their account on one trade, hoping to double their money quickly. When it works, they feel like geniuses. When it fails eventually, they lose everything. The Uncomfortable Truth About Trading Success Here's what successful traders won't show you on Instagram: Years of studying and practice before becoming profitable. Countless hours of backtesting and analyzing trades. Multiple blown accounts while learning. Small, consistent gains instead of massive wins. Strict risk management that seems "too conservative." The reality? Most successful traders make 2-5% per month consistently. That's it. No lamborghinis, no private jets, just steady, compound growth over time. Think about the math. If you start with $10,000 and make 3% per month consistently, you'll have $14,257 after one year. Not exactly Instagram-worthy, is it? But after five years of compounding, that becomes $43,891. After ten years? $192,577. The Real Path to Trading Success When I finally accepted that trading wasn't a get-rich-quick scheme, everything changed. I stopped looking for the holy grail and started focusing on the basics: Proper risk management, never risking more than 1% per trade. Consistent execution of one simple strategy. Patient position building as my account grew. Regular review and improvement of my process. The transformation wasn't exciting. No massive winning days. No Instagram-worthy screenshots. Just small, consistent profits that compound over time. What Real Trading Looks Like Let me share what my trading looks like now.  Here's the reality: I take 2-3 trades per week, not 20 trades per day. My average winning trade is 2R, not 100R. I spend more time managing risk than looking for entries. Most of my trading days are boring and uneventful. This approach isn't sexy. It won't make you rich by next month. But it works, consistently and reliably. Building a Sustainable Trading Career The secret to trading success isn't finding the perfect strategy or indicator. It’s never about the holy grail. It's about changing your mindset from getting rich quickly to building wealth slowly. This means that you need to do the following: Understand that trading is a business, not a lottery ticket.  Focusing on risk management before profit potential. The longer you stay in the game, the closer your results will converge to your expected value.  Building proper habits and routines.  Celebrating consistency over big wins. Let big winners come by executing the same trade over and over again. Thinking in terms of years, not days or weeks. You underestimate how much you can accomplish over a long period of time, The Choice Is Yours You're at a crossroads right now. You can continue chasing the fantasy of quick riches, jumping from strategy to strategy, hoping to find that magical solution that will make you rich overnight. Or you can accept that trading success comes from consistent execution, proper risk management, and time.  It's not exciting. But it works. I've walked both paths. The first one cost me $10,000 and years of frustration. The second one led me to managing six-figure funded accounts and to be consistent in my trading. The idea of getting rich quickly is appealing, but the reality of consistent profits is always better.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Keeleytwj
BTC top at 105 to 108k?I'm always looking for signs of a change in trend direction. A good indicator has always been; 1. A series of higher highs in the price-action, with 2. A corresponding series of lower highs on the RSI (for major trend changes or corrections I use the daily time-frame), 3. Ideally, three lower highs on RSI (sometimes you only get two), with the final RSI high FAILING to get above the 70 level of RSI (red circle). To me this signals - at a minimum - a correction is inbound. So, I would look for other indicators to determine if I think if it is a correction or a trend-change i.e. bear market. There is a plausible Elliot Wave count. Without getting too technical, I see the 105 to 108k as the end of the trend. Could be wrong, could be right. If I am right I should get a medal for accuracy. Happy trading.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by flyinkiwi10
2
Questions Halving Promotors Never Want to Answer Many people here are eager to explain the bets people should make based on the halving but they're never willing to answer the obvious questions about the hypothesis. Here's a collection of questions I must have asked here 100 times in replies to my posts that I've still not gotten an answer to: Why the indices correlation? When you run an analysis on SPX price moves and BTC price moves post halving, they have a coefficient of 0.85. This means all the statistical evidence points towards BTC moving in tandem with risk on/off cycles in equities. ----- Why do people ignore this correlation when it is as reliable (or more) than the halving? Why does the exact same moves in indices and BTC get treated totally differently? When has the halving thesis ever deviated from simple SPX correlation? If there are no deviations, why isn't it best to assume it's related to SPX tracking? ----- Why would the entire market know an event to move price higher was coming and then wait an exact number of days to take action on that? If you've been in the market any length of time you'll have surely heard the saying "Buy the rumour, sell the news". You may have also heard, "Markets prefer to travel than suddenly arrive". This has been a guiding principle of all markets for all time. Why is the halving a "Sell the known coming event, then ignore the news for x days and then buy the event after the fact? ----- Given all halving dates are already known, why isn't this priced in now? Why in the biggest FOMO market there is would there be this organised "Waiting period"? Why has game theory and market dynamics not led to front running? How do these supply/demand dynamics reflect anything about S/D known in markets? ----- What are the failure conditions of the halving bet? I have some of the dumbest convos on this. People insist I MUST BE LONG NOW to not miss out on the halving and then when I ask them what level price can not go under inside of the halving theory ... it gets real fuzzy. And when you dig into it, the answer generally ends up being "Up to 70% drawdown".... Okay - so trying a short here is fine inside of that, right? ----- Why are people making all knowing statements about exactly what should happen and unable to give the most basic risk control? What happens to people who listen to you if you're wrong? Do you have plans to let them know if the theory fails? If not, why are you not telling them the risk if wrong is 70% (Inside of accepted risk). And I suppose the idea is to just entirely ignore the limitless risk if the whole thesis is wrong? ----- When has the BTC halving idea ever overcome a SPX drop? I've been told various times in 2020 there was a deviation from the halving cycle because there was a swan event. Fair enough ... but then this means that the halving forecast will only be right if nothing broadly bearish happens, right? In any instances where we've had halving theory vrs indices bear move - following the indices has won. ----- Why is this not considered evidence against the thesis and for the correlation? Why are you not caveating your forecasts with this known risk? Is it far to say the BTC cycles thesis can easily fail if there's outside events? ----- These things simply do not make sense. They're elephants in the room. People act like the cycles thing is some sort of esoteric knowledge that only a select few know. That's nonsense. I have a kid cousin who can't tie his shoelaces yet but can tell you what the halving forecast is. He does not really understand everything he's saying. He's just repeating things he's heard ... but, that's kinda true for most of you to be honest. Because it takes about 5 mins to understand the halving thesis. Takes about another 1 min to come up with the obvious tests and objections and then maybe takes 10 mins to test those and highlight the flaws. There are some people who've spent literally hours and hours on my posts berating me about why I should be blindly following the halving and in all of this time they've not answered the questions I think should be thought of in the first minute. And I do ask them. Directly and repeatedly. They change the topic or go quiet. To be honest, most of the time they start to drop insults. It's wild, when you think about it. "I am heralding in the future of finance and here to tell you about this halving cycle which I know everything about and expect to be infallible". "Okay. Could you answer a few questions I have about this?" "LMAO. Have fun staying poor". === Think about how disconnected the way BTC bulls act is relative to what they proport to be a part of. Why are you not eager to answer these common sense questions?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by holeyprofit
3
Bitcoin: the $100K reached, what`s next?The long awaited $100K target came finally during the previous week. This is another significant milestone for BTC and the crypto market. Although BTC was struggling during the first half of the week to push the price toward the higher grounds, still, news regarding a new SEC leadership pushed the price above the $100K target for the first time in the history of BTC. News was released that Paul Atkins would lead the SEC under the Trump administration. As Atkins is a proponent of digital assets and the industry around it, the market reaction was positive. The RSI slowed down a bit, but it is still moving within the overbought territory, which is quite “normal” under current circumstances in which BTC is traded. The MA 50 continues to strongly diverge from MA200, without any indication that some change in trend might come anytime soon. The $100K target is reached, so the current question is, what is next for BTC?. It should not be any surprise if BTC decides to slow down a bit in the coming period. This assumption is not based on technical analysis, because BTC is currently moving in an uncharted territory, but on a simple demand-supply economics. As the end of year approaches, and holidays around it, it could be expected that the markets will slow down during the last two weeks of the year. Positive news in a post-election period drawed a significant portion of funds into BTC, and there is a lower probability that investors will make any kind of positioning during the last two weeks of December. In this sense, the expectation is that BTC might slow down, but any kind of significant drop in value should not be expected.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by XBTFX
Bitcoin: Signs Of A Cycle High.Bitcoin could be developing a Wave 5 of a broader 5th wave which would complete an even larger Wave 3 (see monthly chart). IF this is confirms, it implies that a much larger corrective cycle (Wave IV) has a greater chance of unfolding. This corrective cycle can see price retest 70K and STILL BE WITHIN a bullish configuration. Such a move can take 6 months to a year to play out. While wave counts do not promise a high degree of accuracy, they can be helpful to estimate the amount of RISK in the future. Based on this wave count, I can at least conclude that current levels are EXTREMELY unattractive when it comes to putting new money to work in terms of investing. Some signs that point to a potential cycle peak: possible double top formation near the 100K area. A large outside bar formation (see arrow). Countless video titles on Youtube that push becoming a "millionaire" (this is a sign of extreme sentiment). Scammers on the rise literally pumping and dumping meme coins on Youtube streams. Michael Saylor's face on countless thumbnails. While many of these signs are not technical, they illustrate the sentiment of the retail investor and it is usually at these times when the market is MOST vulnerable to turning. This process is NOTHING new, but it can be observed in new ways thanks to the social internet. The outside bar that went from the all time high of 104K back to 91K (most of that move occurred within an hour), is a sign that much of this move is on nothing but hot air in my opinion. Yes it recovered, but all it takes is some unexpected catalyst to see the move stick the next time. While the trend has yet to change, this activity highlights the high degree of risk that is present at current levels. While there is never a bad time to invest, price levels are not created equal when it comes to RISK. I will ALWAYS say this at highs: these are prices to reduce risk, take some profits, or invest SMALL. Price action at current levels is ideal for short term strategies like swing trades, day trades, etc. The price area to be waiting for when it comes to putting larger amounts of new money to work is between the 80K to 70K area which is where the cycle low can establish itself while still maintaining a bullish outlook. IF 70K is compromised (it can happen) that would negate the broader bullish structure and expectations should be adjusted at that time. This is NOT a forecast, just a potential scenario to be prepared for. There is no way to forecast the future with any degree of accuracy. All it takes is an unexpected catalyst and everything changes overnight. Markets are highly random, so the ONLY factor we can control is the RISK we take. Imagine buying this on the 100K breakout, only to see a test of 90K area to follow. Why wasn't ANYONE forecasting that little move? Learn to measure and respect risk because "reward" is nothing more than a byproduct of good risk management. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
18
HolderStat | BTC at a crossroads🌍 Bitcoin holds steady at $101,500, reflecting a market in flux. While Microsoft passed on BTC reserves, nations and corporations are exploring Bitcoin reserves, highlighting its financial relevance. 📉 Spot BTC ETF inflows have slowed since November, hinting at cautious sentiment. Broader crypto ETFs and U.S. policy shifts could ignite new institutional interest. 💡 Bitcoin dominance dipped, and while altcoins remain in the wings, a shift feels near. Wallets activity shows balance, with buys at $97,740 and sells near $98,510—traders remain divided. 🔥 With $1.5 billion in long liquidations and neutral funding rates, the market stands at a pivotal moment. Is this the calm before the next bull storm? _____________________ 📊 Want more useful analytics? Like and subscribe to stay up to date with the most relevant trading ideas! Always DYOR! 🔬
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by HolderStat
1