GOLD short- Quite a run on gold
- Left a lot of inefficiencies behind
2 potential targets annotated on the chart
Gold can take its sweet time to accumulate shorts
This week will be interesting, potentially choppy
XAUUSD1! trade ideas
GOLD: 8 May, 2024© Master of Elliott Wave Analysis: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M
The broader context suggests that wave (iv)-purple may have bottomed out at 2285.2, allowing wave (v)-purple to unfold upwards.
The short-term outlook suggests that wave ((1))-red recently reached a peak, and wave ((2))-red is unfolding to push lower. Subsequently, wave ((3))-red will return to begin its upward process. Specifically, pushing above the level of 234.19 would confirm this view.
Invalidation point: 2285.2
Israel raids Rafah, risk aversion heats up and gold is ready to
Israel suddenly launched an air strike on Rafah, and nearly 100,000 people began to evacuate. On the night of the 6th, the war in the Middle East escalated again.
Geographical risks have been the focus of global attention in the past two years. Since the outbreak of the Ukraine-Russia war and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, risk aversion has been ignited.
This time, Israel escalated the war again. The main reason was that the negotiations between the two parties failed and their respective needs were not met. In addition, the United States supported Israel and held a veto power, making the situation more and more complicated.
In addition, the United States cannot protect itself. Last year, the interest on U.S. government bonds was nearly US$900 billion, which was more than twice the average level over the past decade.
Now, the average yield on U.S. bonds exceeds 4%. In the past two years, the yield on U.S. bonds has hit a 20-year high, and a large amount of money has chosen to purchase fixed-income financial products.
In the first two months of this year, the U.S. Congress is expected to pay $327 billion in interest payments. In March alone, the interest on U.S. debt was nearly $90 billion, claiming to be $2 million per minute.
As we all know, federal interest rates are high, and the cost of U.S. debt financing has increased. The United States originally relied on borrowing money to survive, but now even interest payments have become a problem.
Every year when the fiscal deficit occurs, some creditor countries of the United States have already begun to worry or doubt whether the United States still has the ability to pay. Some people may say, wouldn't it be enough to just open up India? This idea is not only funny, but also naive. This matter must be approved by Congress.
Moreover, a large amount of QE monetary easing will continue to intensify inflation. If there is too much money in the market, prices will rise too fast. The purpose of raising interest rates is because of the Federal Reserve's unlimited quantitative easing in 2020, which has led to this.
Therefore, it is not simply that there is no money in hand and the money printing machine is running overnight. If it is that simple, then every country can do this. Once the balance is not good, there will be a chain reaction. Paul Volcker is an example. , the fear of lowering interest rates is a rebound in inflation.
In the golden hour, yesterday's market fluctuated at a high level and fell sharply in early trading. However, the European market broke through the high point in the morning and has been trading sideways near 2320. The strong sun on the daily line also laid the foundation for the subsequent rise. However, it should be noted that this kind of rise will be confirmed by stepping back, and the following attention will be around 2315-2313.
Today, you can do more in the 2322-2320 area, just defend at 2310, focus on the high point of 2330 above, and focus on the 2338-2342 area as the target.
Sell Stop Idea? or nahInitial set up a pending order for the sell stop, thats now been invalidated. Looking for a change of direction confirmation.
If that does not occur Ill be placing the sell top order again
Bearish flag TF15 Gold trading Swing ShortI observed a bearish flag pattern on the 15-minute timeframe (TF15) for gold trading. After noticing the price break below the lower boundary, I entered a short position during the first pullback, targeting significant resistance for a short swing trade. On the 4-hour chart (TF4), one can also consider shorting based on the price pattern illustrated in the provided picture. For taking profits, it is advisable to set target levels at support or utilize Fibonacci retracement levels to determine exit points.
Potential breakout? As we observe gold on the hourly, it was stagnant throughout today's NY session. I have also mark an ascending trendline. For me to jump in a buy I would need for it to crack 2337 and a retest. For a selling opportunity, I need it to break this TL and crack below 2327. I see this as a perfect opportunity for a breakout to happen on either direction.
How to Define Gold's Trend?Gold (June) / Silver (July)
Gold, last week’s close: Settled at 2308.6, down 1.0 on Friday and 38.6 on the week
Silver, last week’s close: Settled at 26.69, down 0.139 on Friday and 0.845 on the week
Gold and Silver futures turned higher upon China’s open last night at 8:00 pm CT. It is important to remember China was on holiday late last week, which means a lack of response to the U.S. news, including the strength in the Japanese Yen due to the BoJ’s intervention. Overall, we were very surprised by the lack of response in precious metals to the softer-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls report and weak ISM Services data. One may point to ISM Services Prices surging as a headwind, but we view Prices as a lag to the index.
Technically, we must see Gold chew through Wednesday’s Fed high, major three-star resistance at 2338-2339.5, and hold out above here in order to move towards beginning to neutralize the damage from the rollover early last week. Silver has cleared that Fed high and pinged settlement from last Monday, just prior to its rollover last week, at 27.66 this morning. It will be imperative for the bulls to continue to bid this rally attempt and set the tone for the week ahead. More broadly, Gold’s daily chart can be considered constructive and building out a bull flag from its mid-April peak, the coming days will be critical in continuing to form such a pattern.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 2338-2339.5***, 2347.7***, 2353-2358.9***, 2364.4-2367***
Pivot: 2330.7
Support: 2322.9-2325.3***, 2312.7-2314.5**, 2300.6-2305.8**, 2291.5-2296.2**, 2281.8-2285.2***, 2257.1***, 2246.6***, 2231.2-2238.2****
Silver (July)
Resistance: 27.66-27.76***, 27.91-27.93**, 28.02-28.22***
Pivot: 27.44
Support: 27.15-27.28***, 27.01**, 26.89-26.91**, 26.65-26.69***, 26.17-26.30****, 25.89-25.95**, 25.32-25.47***
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
GOLD: 6 May, 2024© Master of Elliott Wave Analysis: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M
The broader context suggests that wave (iv)-purple may have bottomed out at 2285.2, allowing wave (v)-purple to unfold upwards.
In the short term, the completion of wave (iv)-purple in an ABC pattern indicates that the upward movement from 2285.2 suggests that wave (iv)-purple may have ended. Pushing above the level of 2339.5 would further clarify this bullish perspective.
Invalidation point: 2285.2
202419 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - goldgold futures
Quote from last week:
bear case: Given the bullish climactic nature of the last 2 months, some correction is on order but bears need follow through below 2300 for a retest of the breakout around 2250. On the daily chart, this too is a two legged correction but it’s looking much less bearish, because we are still around the lower bull wedge line. Monday or Tuesday will give a clear direction for the next move. Measured move from the most recent sell-off is exactly the low of W2 around 2180.
current market cycle: Inclined to say trading range until clear break below 2290.
key levels: 2290 - 2350
bull case: Bulls keeping this around the daily 20ema and continue to make 2290/2300 support. As long as it holds, we could see another push to retest the highs above 2400. Their next target is a close above the ema at 2330 and above that is 2360 as next resistance. Invalid below 2290.
bear case: Price action last week could very well have been part of the W2 and W3 could start now but the more we go sideways the less influence the most recent sell-off has.
outlook last week: “Neutral until clear break of the given range.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 2347 and now we are at 2308. Good read of the market.
short term: Neutral until clear break of the given range. —unchanged
medium-long term: Still no better opinion on this to be honest. I don’t like to get into the speculations why the Gold price is where it is. I have been saying that the market was very unusual over the last 2 months to say the least. It would not surprise me, if we just continue the selling all the way back to 2100 and lower.
Chart update: Removed the two legged correction in favor of the bear thesis and added an alternative bullish correction upwards. Preferred path is the red one.
The only chart you need right now. #goldThe only chart you need right now. #gold
momentum resetting
volume resetting
Gold COMEX Future - Intraday Levels - 3rd May 2024If Sustain above 2309.6 then 2324.6 to 2325.9 or 2328.5 to 2331.3 or 2333.6 above this bullish then 2347.1 to 2353.8
If Sustain below 2302.0 then 2286.1 to 2283.0 or 2280.7 to 2278.0 below this bearish then 2263.6 to 2256.9 or 2254.1 below this more bearish
Consider some buffer points in above levels.
Please do your due diligence before trading or investment.
**Disclaimer -
I am not a registered analyst or advisor. I does not represent or endorse the accuracy or reliability of any information, conversation, or content. Stock and commodities trading is inherently risky and the users agree to assume complete and full responsibility for the outcomes of all trading decisions that they make, including but not limited to loss of capital. None of these communications should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, nor advice to do so. The users understands and acknowledges that there is a very high risk involved in trading securities. By using this information, the user agrees that use of this information is entirely at their own risk.
Friday Gold Shorts 05/03/24Overall we are trending up on the weekly time frame. We are now having a pull back. The previous weeks candle closed very bearish. We have a weekly gap that we need to fill and it looks like within that gap, there is an area where price had a lot of aggressive buyers & sellers. This price tag is 2262.3. I will be looking to short that once we break out of our consolidation and break Thursdays low at 2294. My overall target is 2257.1 because that is the gap fill but I think we need to at least hit 2262.3 this Friday. I may also look for longs at that level depending on how impulsive the reaction will be from there.
TAKE LONG POSITION FOR MICROGOLD AT 2312.3 $ , CORRECTION PHASE ? TAKE LONG POSITION AND TRUST THE PROCESS , REMEMBER NO FEAR
Entry for short Attached to related idea
Grey zone I expect to act as resistance
In shorts right now
Gold COMEX Future - Intraday Levels - 2nd May 2024if Sustain above 2318 then 2333.0 to 2336.0 then 2345.8 to 2347.3 then 2354.4 to 2357.0 then 2373.7 to 2377.2
if Sustain Below 2318 then 2311 then 2309 to 2305.5 or 2302.9 then 2291.7 then 2281.7 then 2274.7 to 2271.5 or 2268.5
Consider some buffer points in above levels.
Please do your due diligence before trading or investment.
**Disclaimer -
I am not a SEBI registered analyst or advisor. I does not represent or endorse the accuracy or reliability of any information, conversation, or content. Stock trading is inherently risky and the users agree to assume complete and full responsibility for the outcomes of all trading decisions that they make, including but not limited to loss of capital. None of these communications should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, nor advice to do so. The users understands and acknowledges that there is a very high risk involved in trading securities. By using this information, the user agrees that use of this information is entirely at their own risk.
Thank you.
gold vs dxyGold is very often able to outperform US Dollar (vs foreign currencies) strength in its bull eras.
I made it easy for you to spot when the march upwards resumes on this daily chart.
Now don't say I can't help ;-)
#gold #dxy #usdollar
gold #bullish setupwe can look for a bullish entry on gold
cup & handle pattern formed
over all trend bearish small bullish entry
The Bears gain control of GoldTechnical Momentum Weakens
Gold Futures hit an all-time high in 2024 at $2,448 on the June futures contract on April 12. Since then, futures have corrected; however, gold remains firmly above the rising 50-day moving average at $2,244 and well above the 200-day moving average at $2088. The technical perspective shows momentum studies declining, with the 9-day moving average trading below the 18-day.
Stochastics have corrected into oversold territory, and DMI - is below DMI- , indicating that the bears are technically in control.
Tailwinds Continue to Develop
With a 6% chance of a June rate cut, according to the CME's Fedwatch tool, traders are focused on September; swaps are pricing in a 43% chance that the Fed will make its first interest rate hike in the cycle.
Geopolitical tensions, rampant fiscal spending, and central bank buying have been the main drivers and have significantly propelled Gold prices recently.
Industrial Metals Strengthen
Performance remains strong in the Precious Metals space and has continued to spill into the industrial complex. Traders continue to monitor manufacturing, Chinese Economic data, and the U.S. economy.
www.tradingview.com
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Bitcoin & Gold I personally think short term maybe lower, but the purpose here is to consider the outcome of a new asset following the path of another with the participants being the same people.
filb.
Gold today's forcastCURRENT PRICE: 2296.5
2278 to 2288 is the bullish zone for gold as mentioned in the chart, plus 200 SMA is also providing support at 2293. Price is bouncing from this level and is currently trading at 2296.
Till the price is above this support zone BUY is recommended to target 2304.5 and 2323.6.
Whereas breach and stability below this support zone will result in slide in prices towards 2249 to 2259 green zone mentioned in chart.
GOLD (FUTURES): 1 MAY, 2024© Master of Elliott Wave Analysis: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M.
The broader context suggests that wave (iv)-purple continues longer than expected, pushing lower, looking for targets around the 2260 area.
The short-term outlook shows that the x-blue wave recently ended, and the y-blue wave is opened to push lower, while price sustaining below the 2317 resistance level is a significant advantage for this outlook. Rising higher shows the opening of wave ((4))-red, and wave ((5))-red will then continue to push lower.
Invalidation point: 2364.4
Gold COMEX Future - Intraday Levels - 1st May 2024 If Sustain above 2305.1 then 2310.4 to 2311.8 above this bullish movement then 2328.5 then 2341.8 to 2344.1 or 2347.0 then 2352.3 then Swing trade Bullish to 2378.4 to 2383.6 then 2393.0 then 2401.4 then 2408.6 to 2409.4
If Sustain below 2296.2 to 2295.1 then 2287.0 then 2279.6 then 2263.9 Swing trade bearish then 2237.2 to 2231.9 then 2302.1 to 2298.1
Consider some buffer points in above levels.
For you analysis and study :-
My trade plan for Swing trade : Buy above 2352.3 with SL of 2296.2
Sell below 2263.9 with SL of 2311.8
Please do your due diligence before trading or investment.
**Disclaimer -
I am not a registered analyst or advisor. I does not represent or endorse the accuracy or reliability of any information, conversation, or content. Stock and commodities trading is inherently risky and the users agree to assume complete and full responsibility for the outcomes of all trading decisions that they make, including but not limited to loss of capital. None of these communications should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, nor advice to do so. The users understands and acknowledges that there is a very high risk involved in trading securities. By using this information, the user agrees that use of this information is entirely at their own risk.
Thank you.
