we need a breakout on trendline 1in the 4 hour chart I see we need a breakout from trend line 1 to take a new position on BTCUSD
BEARUSD trade ideas
Daily Analysis of Bitcoin – Issue 230The analyst believes that the price of { BTCUSD } will increase in the next 24 hours. This prediction is based on quantitative analysis of the price trend.
Please note that the specified take-profit level does not imply a prediction that the price will reach that point. In this framework of analysis and trading, unlike the stop-loss, which is mandatory, setting a take-profit level is optional. Whether the price reaches the take-profit level or not is of no significance, as the results are calculated based on the start and end times. The take-profit level merely indicates the potential maximum price fluctuation within that time frame.
BTCUSD | Trade ideaBTCUSD is trading weak ahead of the US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data, having hit a low of $55,282 and currently hovering around $55,958.
The number of large investors holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC has reached a one-month high of 16,120, indicating that whales are buying BTC at lower levels.
BTC ETFs have experienced an outflow of $211 million, marking the seventh consecutive day of withdrawals.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has dropped to 57% from 70% a week ago.
US Markets:
NASDAQ (negative correlation with BTC): Bearish but neutral for BTC, trading weak ahead of the NFP data. A close above 20,000 could push the index to 20,500.
Technical Analysis:
BTCUSD is trading below the short-term 34-EMA and 55-EMA, as well as the long-term 200-EMA on the 4-hour chart, indicating weakness.
On the daily chart, BTC remains below both short- and long-term moving averages, confirming minor weakness.
Support Levels:
Minor support at $54,000. A break below could push BTC to $53,000/$50,000/$46,000.
Bullish Scenario:
Primary supply zone: $57,000. A break above this level could confirm intraday bullish momentum with potential targets of $60,000/$61,800/$63,000/$65,000/$67,000/$70,000.
Secondary barrier: $70,000. A close above could target $75,000/$80,000.
A Deja Vu Moment? 31% Correction to Previous ATH $73KThere’s something about the charts that’s been bugging me lately—definitely leaning toward a bearish bias.
As much as I want to be bullish and for Alt Season to kick off, my focus on Bitcoin is mainly to gauge the pulse of the Altcoin market. But there’s something on the weekly charts that’s hard to ignore.
The Stochastic RSI has turned bearish, signaling a downward bias for Bitcoin’s immediate direction. This could play out as an overall correction that might take another week to play out.
Adding to this, back in November, Bitcoin’s price rejected off the 0.618 Fibonacci level on Bitcoin Dominance. This level marked the peak for Bitcoin dominance in the 2021 bull run. At that time, the stochastic RSI was overbought with a bearish crossover and dominance rejected off the 0.618 Fib level, leading to a 31% correction over two weeks before the market quickly rebounded.
Fast forward to today, we’re at a very similar juncture. Stochastic RSI is overbought and we have rejected off bitcoin dominances 0.618 fib level - Will we see a 31% Correction?
Well! If we were to see a 31% correction from the previous ATH, it aligns almost perfectly with the 0.618 Fib level—hard not to see this as more than just a coincidence.
On top of that, I suspect we’re currently in a Wave 4 correction. However, a pullback to the 0.236 Fib level feels almost too straightforward to me—perhaps too easy.
What do you think? Would love to hear your thoughts!
BTCUSD Revision 22 December 2024Hello Nation!
Let’s see what BTC did. We open today at 96537 area. It did made a huge gap breaking a Resistance level. The same Level became a Support. As multiple rejections can be seen. To me that a good hint for a buy entry. I marked out my m15 Box and that will be my point of interest for a buy entry.
With 30 Pips SL risk and 100 Pips TP. It will be a nice winner. I did took this entry but i secured at 94 Pips. My risk was smaller than 30pips as i make them precise on m1 or m5.
Price went up straight to a Daily SBR area. Once i spotted Price was breaking a support on the H1, this information is key to me. I marked the Support that broke and that same area is now Resistance. A point of interest which i will monitor.
Again, I drew out my m15 box after the identifying Support and Resistance in that area. Upon seeing multiple bearish reactions. I was confident price will be making a move down. I took a sell entry.
This time i targeted the H1 low which give me a bit more than 100 pips. I secured this entry at 138 Pips. Knowing that there was gap during market open. I could have attempted to target much lower. But i am happy with what i got. It was a very good day for me.
BTC is just bouncing off its supply and demand. As you know, I don’t make predictions on my post. I will only try to share what story that i see after the candles happen.
Thank you for Reading. Good Bye!
BTCUSD retrace down before next rallyBTCUSD retrace down before next rally
MUST TA again when 91k hit
BITCOIN RSI The chart of bitcoin Is giving a Clear WARNING signal . Best of Trades WAVETIMER BTW I AM LONG PUTS IN BITI as of today at 60.8
BTC/USD : First Short, Then LONG! (READ THE CAPTION)Analyzing the #Bitcoin chart in the 4-hour timeframe, we observe that the price is currently trading around $100K. If the price stabilizes below $100,380, we could expect further declines, with $97,800 as the first key level, followed by the potential start of the next bullish wave for Bitcoin. The second scenario involves a price surge above $101,500, which could increase demand and push the price to levels above $102,000. This analysis will be updated further.
Weekly Time Frame Analysis :
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
BTCUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (RAED CAPTION)hi traders! share you opinion about this chart in comment section
current price: 98020
after hitting highest of all time BTC has entered in sphere of retracement. all D1 candles of this week have established a bearish trend and market is trying to stabilize itself. currently market is working under parallel channel. if market rejects 98500 then its next move will be 94500.
key points:
resistance: 98500 and 99850
support zone: 94650 and 91500
demand zone: 94650
like, share and follow. thanks for your support
#btc #elliottwave short sell setup wave a 14Dec24This count is based on my assumptions so anything can happen not a trading or financial advice just for educational purposes only kindly do your own ta thanks trade with care good luck.
Non-stop growth to 150K without correctionsBe careful begun a non-stop growth to 150 thousand without any corrections.
My previous Bitcoin bear cycle prediction:
BTC - Pullback to 100k - Bullish divergenceAfter a sharp drop, it seems a head and shoulder pattern is forming. Seems there is bullish divergence on the MACD as well. Will we pull back to 100k tonight?
BTC/USD - daily chart divergence showed the wayThe divergence was strong with this one.
Both the RSI and MACD showed huge Divergence from the Price.
Divergence is a very good way to try and prevent your buy trade from being someone else’s exit liquidity at the top.
It'll be interesting to see if those Liquidity Voids below get filled up.
Divergence:
Liquidity Voids:
BTC 30% Correction After todays news BTC doesn't seem to be holding well .
With a visible bearish divergence on the RSI and a downward momentum on stochastic its most probable that BTC will return to 70K levels in near term
BTC - Weekend pump back to 105?To me this seems like a reversal pattern is forming and being verified. Bullish divergence and bullish continuation on MACD. BTC also broke the downtrend it has had the recent days, and inflation news on yesterdays friday indicates things aren't so bad after all.
Bitcoin technical analysis + trade planThe chart shows a clear falling wedge formation. This is a bullish reversal pattern that suggests a potential upward breakout.
Price is nearing the wedge's apex, indicating that a breakout might be imminent.
Key Support and Resistance Levels:
Support Levels:
$88,671.83 (near-term critical support)
$86,000.00 (strong psychological support)
Resistance Levels:
$95,497.11 (short-term resistance near breakout zone)
$108,329.96 (target resistance post-breakout)
Indicators:
VWMC Cipher B Divergences:
Bullish divergence appears on the indicator, aligning with the falling wedge's bullish potential.
RSI:
RSI is below 30, indicating oversold conditions, which often precede a rebound.
Money Flow Index (MFI):
MFI is oversold, suggesting incoming buying pressure.
Stochastic Oscillator:
Stochastic is in the oversold region (<20), showing high potential for a bullish reversal.
Market Sentiment:
Given the oversold indicators and bullish pattern, the market is primed for a potential upside movement. However, confirmation of the breakout is critical.
Trading Plan:
Entry Strategy:
Enter long near the wedge's lower boundary (~$90,000), with a tight stop loss below $88,000.
Conservative Entry:
Wait for a breakout above the wedge's resistance (~$96,000) and enter after confirmation with a retest of the breakout level.
Stop-Loss Placement:
Place stop-loss below the nearest support level:
Aggressive traders: $87,500
Conservative traders: $92,000 (post-breakout retest failure)
Profit Targets:
First Target: $108,329.96 (major resistance level post-breakout)
Second Target: $114,000 (psychological level, based on historical price action)
Risk Management:
Risk no more than 1-2% of your portfolio per trade.
Use position sizing to balance risk-to-reward ratios (minimum 1:3).
Monitoring
Volume: Ensure the breakout is accompanied by increased volume.
Candle Structure: A solid close above $96,000 validates the move.
Invalidation:
If the price falls below $88,000, the wedge pattern is invalidated, signaling further downside.
Alternative Scenario (Bearish):
If Bitcoin breaks below $86,000, expect a test of lower levels. Potential targets include $82,000 and $78,000.
Bitcoin is poised for a significant move. The falling wedge, oversold indicators, and strong support levels suggest an imminent bullish breakout. However, patience for confirmation is key to minimizing risk and maximizing gains. Adjust your strategy dynamically based on market conditions.
BTC Analysis for LONG....Asalam.o.alaikum (Hi)! Community,
Hope you all are doing great, and preparing yourself for the chirstmas. So here is the LONG-TERM idea for the BTC according to the 30min timeframe. Market is in the 50% reversal area and keep an eye upon it... Let see the market move.
Cheers,
Thanks!
Intikhab Gillani MOCHH
Analyst (Ultra Securities & Hedge Funds PvT Limited Pakistan)
22/12/2024
Are we in for a 27% Correction?Recognition of Previous Mistake (Rising Wedge vs. Ascending Channel)
Recent price action has revealed a shift in the structure. In my previous technical analysis I identified as a rising wedge. Upon breaking out of the rising wedge and further review, it now appears that Bitcoin is trading within an ascending channel. This structural adjustment suggests that while the market remains in a bullish trajectory overall, there are signs of weakening momentum, warranting a bearish outlook in the near future.
**Read In full to get historical validations to validate my theory**
Key Factors Supporting a Bearish Bias
Bearish Divergence on Weekly Time Frame
On the higher time frame, bearish divergence is evident, as price continues to make higher highs while key momentum indicators, such as the RSI, make lower highs. This divergence suggests that the current uptrend is losing strength, increasing the likelihood of a reversal.
Bearish Divergence on Daily Time Frame
A similar pattern is observed on the daily time frame, providing further evidence of weakening momentum. Combining divergences on both time frames strengthens the bearish case, as it highlights misalignment between price action and underlying market strength.
Loss of Momentum Within an Ascending Channel
Price is currently constrained within an ascending channel. While this structure supports the continuation of the uptrend in the short term, it often signals a gradual loss of momentum, especially when combined with other bearish signals. Breakout scenarios typically favor the downside in such cases, aligning with the broader bearish outlook.
Stochastic RSI Analysis
Weekly Time Frame:
The stochastic RSI is in the overbought region, and a bearish crossover (K-line crossing below the D-line) has occurred. This signal further strengthens the probability of a reversal or significant correction from current levels. Overbought conditions on higher time frames are particularly significant as they indicate market exhaustion.
Daily Time Frame:
The stochastic RSI has not yet reached overbought levels, suggesting that the price has some room to move higher in the short term before a bearish reversal materializes. This indicates that patience is warranted before entering a short trade.
Historical Validation
Historical analysis of similar scenarios (March and July) reinforces the reliability of the current bearish setup:
In both instances, price was constrained within an ascending channel.
Bearish divergences were present on both weekly and daily time frames.
The stochastic RSI aligned with bearish crossovers on the weekly and daily charts, signaling strong entry points for downside trades.
Current Market Outlook
Based on the above analysis, the bearish bias is supported by the following:
Loss of momentum within the ascending channel.
Bearish divergence on both weekly and daily time frames.
Overbought stochastic RSI on the weekly chart, with a pending overbought signal on the daily.
While the bearish setup appears robust, caution is advised as the daily stochastic RSI suggests that Bitcoin could see additional upside in the short term before the anticipated correction takes place.
My Trading Plan
Wait for Confirmation:
Monitor the daily stochastic RSI and wait for it to reach the overbought region, followed by a bearish crossover (K-line crossing below the D-line). This will serve as an ideal signal to enter a short trade.
Key Levels to Watch:
Channel Resistance: Watch for price rejection near the upper boundary of the ascending channel, which would reinforce bearish momentum.
Channel Support: A confirmed breakdown below the lower boundary of the ascending channel would act as a trigger for a bearish continuation.
Nobody appreciates it !!!As I mentioned in my previous analysis, Bitcoin managed to break through the triangle pattern and experienced significant growth. Now, the price is forming a bullish pennant pattern, which could lead to further growth after the pennant breaks.
Previous Analysis
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✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟!
⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
BTCUSD SIGNAL UPDATEHello traders look at the chart and share your ideas about it .
BTCUSD looking bullish from current area our last BTC setup reached our target. BTC is unstoppable now it will make a new target lets focus on it .
Further you can check my chart and share your ideas in comments
Follow me for more updates about the market.
Ending diagonalAn ending diagonal is in sight as depicted in the diagram. A steep decline should be expected in the coming days to the region of 85,000 USD. This region is 0.382 retracement of wave 3 as well as the starting point of wave v, beginning of the ending diagonal.
Bitcoin: To the MoonThis is just a chart about Bitcoin.
I think it will reach 136k by EoY.
I believe we are melting up and value is being grabbed rapidly.
In my opinion, any type of dip in the 90k-100k region is a buy right now.
As you can see, 70k-75k is on the table for a rapid breakdown. We don't want that. Watch out for it.
This is only my opinion until the EoY, Respective of the lag time between Jan. 20th Inauguration.
I hope everyone has a Merry Christmas!
Mr. Storm.
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