$NVDA Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:NVDA Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis
Possible we already turning bearish if price go more upside then
Expecting price top around 156-165 and reject big time
NVDAD trade ideas
Have you noticed Nvidia's Range? Waiting on a decision... The price continues to fluctuate, but not even the latest earnings report has been able to break out of this sideways channel (range) shown in the analysis.
Nvidia is a powerhouse when it comes to its earnings reports, and while the price does fluctuate, it hasn’t done so with the same aggressiveness seen in previous months.
At this point, we’re simply waiting for a decision—either wait for the price to break out of the channel, or, if you want to be more aggressive, look for the price to touch the demand zone to go long. You could do the opposite in the supply zone, but I don’t recommend it, as the overall structure remains bullish.
Thank you for supporting my analysis.
TRADE SAFE!
NVDA - Bullish Inverse Head & ShouldersSummary: NVDA is forming a bullish inverse head & shoulders on the longer timeframes. This trade and target are largely based on the larger pattern (4hr time frame), however the 1 hour time frame gives us a high quality entry on the break of 143.3 in the middle of the right shoulder so we don’t need to wait for a break of 146 for entries. Stop loss invalidating the trade would be break below 141.3.
P&L Assuming 143.3 Entry:
Gain: $6
Loss: $2
Risk v Reward: 3:1
Possible Contracts:
145C for 1/3/2025 (currently $4.40)
150C for 1/17/2025 (currently $4.60)
Chart Pattern Analysis of NVDA
K4 break up the previous high price and close upon the resistance.
It is a bull signal for the market.
But there is still a concern about the lower demands along the recent candles.
Perhaps K4 is a fake up candle.
If that is a fact,
K5 will not likely create a higher high and usually will break down the resistant immediately.
Considered K5 is near the support along the uptrend channel,
The market will choose to break up or fall down here.
If K5 break up K4,
It will be a good place to buy then.
If K5 close below the resistance,
The consolidation will expand down to test 116USD.
It will be another good place to buy then.
SMCI To Follow Nividias Path?Looking at the chart above, we can see on the right how Nvidia has been trading within a channel since its existence, until recently it seen a break above and a clear re-test and continuation from this level, setting new boundaries for their stock price as a result of AI developments.
We can also see on the left SMCI, who's chart looks very similar, having just broken an retested that same upper channel resistance level before continuing higher.
Lets have a look at why this may be the case:
Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI)
Focus: SMCI specializes in manufacturing high-performance servers and storage systems, including AI-optimized servers critical for mounting AI chips from companies like NVIDIA and AMD. They do not manufacture chips but complement chipmakers by enabling AI infrastructure development.
AI Expansion: SMCI has seen significant growth, with fiscal 2024 revenue reaching $14.94 billion (up 110% YoY). The company is leveraging partnerships with NVIDIA and AMD, tapping into the AI server market, which is projected to grow at an 18% CAGR until 2032.
Market Position: SMCI holds approximately 10% of the AI server market and aims to expand this to 17% in three years, driven by increasing demand for AI-powered hardware and systems.
Market Cap: Around $16 billion as of recent data. There’s significant growth potential as it rides the AI wave, potentially leading to valuations closer to NVIDIA’s over the long term, depending on market execution.
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
Focus: NVIDIA dominates the AI chip market with its GPUs, which power most AI applications, including training large language models. The company also ventures into software and data-center solutions.
Recent Growth: NVIDIA reported $26 billion in Q1 2024 revenue, up 262% YoY, with EPS growth of 461%. Its dominant market position allows it to maintain pricing power and capitalize on increasing AI infrastructure investments.
Market Cap: [/b ] NVIDIA’s market cap exceeds $1 trillion, reflecting its status as a cornerstone of the AI industry. Its control of the AI chip market gives it an edge in capturing future demand as global AI investments grow.
Comparison and Growth Outlook
Complementary Roles: SMCI and NVIDIA are not direct competitors but operate in synergistic niches—NVIDIA supplies the chips, and SMCI builds the servers to host them.
Growth Potential: NVIDIA benefits from its unmatched dominance in AI chip technology, while SMCI has room to grow within the AI server market. Analysts predict SMCI will grow faster proportionally, given its smaller base and increasing market share ambitions.
AI Opportunity: The AI hardware market, including servers and chips, is expected to surpass $84.9 billion by 2031. SMCI and NVIDIA are positioned to capture significant portions of this market.
Future Market Cap Projections
SMCI: If it scales its AI server market share and revenue effectively, its valuation could rise significantly, potentially exceeding $50 billion within a few years.
NVIDIA: Sustained leadership in AI chips could push its market cap further, perhaps toward $2 trillion in a bullish AI adoption scenario.
Both companies are critical to AI infrastructure development and are positioned to benefit from global AI investments, but NVIDIA's established dominance contrasts with SMCI's emerging growth trajectory. Each offers unique investment opportunities tailored to different risk and growth profiles
Minsky Moment for NVDA? I have a related post in which I've done most of the heavy lifting and proof of concepts (showing the real time implementation of the model on the SMCI bust) for this.
www.tradingview.com
This post's main purpose is just to have a post to specifically track the failure of the setup in NVDA or to update on the different stages of the model through the decline is we end up making the classic butterfly top.
The drop here would not only satisfy all the stages of the Minsky model, it would also complete the Elliot wave boom and bust posted at 500 in NVDA.
NVIDIA: All Fractal Patterns - You decide the directionPatterns create a framework for understanding market behavior, helping you organize chaotic price action into more predictable structures.
In this report I'm prepared to go through most Patterns I can spot across NVIDIA Chart to be able to interpret bigger emerging picture.
REGULARITIES
"Think not of what you see, but what it took to produce what you see." ~ Benoit Mandelbrot
Fractal Cyclicality
Sub-cycles are smaller composite cycles recurring within larger ones, showing periodic patterns of price oscillations that collectively shape the rhythm of the full cycle.
In NVIDIA's chart, these sub-cycles typically consist of three final peaks, each representing the market's effort to sustain bullish momentum while gradually approaching a point of inevitable bullish exhaustion.
The peak of the 3rd composite sub-cycle is critical decision-making period for bulls, indicating last chances for the profitable exit points before major trend reversals take hold.
Fractal Validation Through Scaling
This particular fractal, starting from 2015, caught my attention due to its consistency and proportional alignment with the current market cycle.
According to EW, fractal matches really well from 1 to 4 wave. The 5th wave, being too prolonged. Either it played out faster because oh higher frequency of reversals.
Assessing:
Expansion with observed part of pattern Final Peaks Scaled with derived top of cycle:
Another progression nicely curved that could match with smaller scale cycles as building blocks
Alignment with 1st systematic cycle:
This means that next single-cycled consolidation confirms bearish exhaustion by matching proportions within a cycle.
"Reactive" Patterns to after heavy drops, like this often contain compressed fractals with higher frequency or reversals.
Witnessing how even single-cycled bullish “consolidation after drop” contains undeformed proportions of fractal, at this point there is no need to look for another fractal.
This approach illustrates how dynamics of smaller cycle evolve into larger market movements, maintaining their core proportions across price and time scales.
The ability of these patterns to mirror both micro (next one) and macro (overall shape) levels indicates that the metrics defining these fractals are consistent and scalable across timeframes and price scales.
This scalability hints at a deeper, intrinsic market behavior rooted in fractal geometry. The fact that all patterns seem to "abide by each other's metrics" implies a self-referential system, where smaller cycles influence larger ones, and vice versa.
This aligns with the theory of self-similarity, a core principle of fractals, suggesting that markets are not random but governed by a structured, recursive mechanism.
Viewing the chart in logarithmic scale amplifies this universal quality, as it normalizes the exponential growth of markets and reveals the proportionality between fractal patterns.
Will do Fractal Mapping with Fibs in Part II
NVDA - finding an Exit on LongsIn this short piece, I present some visuals of my ideas on NASDAQ:NVDA targets.
If the chart patterns play well then my intention is to exit at around $183 to $193 and then catch the wave (4) low ideally at $146 , for the final push up in this sequence in to $210 or slightly higher for a final exit.
Viewed from the perspective of a weekly or monthly chart - NASDAQ:NVDA doesn't look complete at those higher levels, however, I suspect that the end in to the wave (5) around $210 will complete a multitude of larger wave degrees, thus start a much larger degree (wave 4) correction from that point.
**NVDA may be a strong barometer for the market peak on an intermediate scale. I will certainly consider this strongly.
Nvidia Forming Support For Move To $237That's it, Nvidia is forming obvious support at $140. The stage is set for the move up to $237.
Good Luck!
NVIDIA - Last stage of bull run In my previous post about NVIDIA couple of months back, I presented the Livermore Speculative chart, which illustrates how NVIDIA is poised for a parabolic move. After a consolidation period of 1-2 months, the upward momentum is about to begin.
I've also provided a long-term perspective on NVIDIA, indicating that we are on the verge of completing a significant wave. Based on the time cycle, I anticipate this will conclude between February and March 2025, with the upper end of the parallel channel projected to be in the range of 260-300. Please refer to the time cycles shown at the bottom of the chart. Following this period, we may enter a substantial correction that could last for several years.
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Potential pull-back on the biggest stock in the world? Careful with a potential pull-back at the top of the range. Bearish butterfly harmonic pattern is forming with bearish divergence double top on the RSI. If NASDAQ:NVDA were to go down, we could potentially see its price perform badly after earnings, which could be near the pattern completion zone.
Nvidia H4 entry Hi traders I decided to share quick possible entry for nvidia,however i didn't share it from the start cz of some reasons,however you are not late to take calculated risk from the zone,note that trading is risky you might loose all your capitals.
Happy Friday (pre-market look.) Vote if you buying the dip! Strong resistance at 146.50 and Support is built at 144. Stay tuned to market’s opening for trend of the day. Will NVDA continue its weekly rise? Or will we retest support at $142.25?
NVDA Ascending Channel Insights: Key Scalping & Swing ZoneNVDA continues its bullish march within a clear ascending channel. The price action presents excellent opportunities for scalping short-term volatility and swing trading the broader trend. With key support and resistance levels, alongside MACD divergence, here's a comprehensive analysis and trading game plan.
Market Structure Overview:
* Trend: NVDA is trading within an ascending channel, suggesting bullish momentum. However, the price is approaching resistance near $148-$150.
* Current Price Action: The last few candles show a slowing upward momentum, signaling potential consolidation or pullback.
* Key Levels:
* Resistance Zones: $148.55 (short-term), $152.89 (channel top and major resistance).
* Support Zones: $137.77 (critical swing low), $131.89 (channel bottom and potential bounce area).
Liquidity & Order Blocks:
* Liquidity Zones: Significant liquidity sits below $137.77, which could attract a stop hunt before a reversal.
* Order Blocks:
* Bullish OB: Around $137.77-$139, aligning with the last strong bullish breakout.
* Bearish OB: Near $148-$150, likely to act as a supply zone.
MACD & Volume Analysis:
* MACD: Shows a bearish divergence—momentum weakening while price trends higher. Watch for a cross below the signal line for confirmation of a pullback.
* Volume: Declining on recent upward moves, which may indicate waning bullish strength.
Scalping Strategy:
* Entry: Look for short scalps near $148-$150, especially if a rejection forms with bearish candles and MACD confirmation.
* Exit: Target $145-$144 for quick profits, with a tight stop-loss above $150.
* Stop-Loss: $150.50 to minimize risk in case of a breakout.
Swing Trading Strategy:
* Bullish Play: Wait for a pullback into the $137.77-$139 support zone. Enter long if bullish confirmation (e.g., hammer or engulfing candle) appears.
* Bearish Play: If price fails to break $150 and confirms a lower high, consider shorting with targets at $137.77.
* Stop-Loss: For longs, set at $137. For shorts, above $150.
Game Plan:
1. Pre-Market Prep:
* Mark key levels: $150 (resistance), $137.77 (support), and channel edges.
* Check for news or macro events affecting tech stocks.
2. At Market Open:
* Monitor initial price action for rejection or breakout near $148-$150.
* Look for high-volume moves to confirm trend direction.
3. Mid-Day Play:
* If price consolidates near the channel's midline, avoid overtrading.
* Focus on reacting to breakout or pullback scenarios.
4. EOD Exit:
* Close all scalping positions by the day's end to avoid overnight risk.
Likely Direction:
* Bullish Scenario: A breakout above $150 could push NVDA towards $152.89 or higher, aligning with the channel top.
* Bearish Scenario: Failure to sustain above $148 may lead to a retracement towards $137.77 for liquidity.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always perform your own due diligence and trade responsibly.
Watching For a Bullish ContinuationHello Traders!
I'm almost interested in the long with Nvidia. I like the bullish sentiment, and patterns it's creating to give a nice swing set up. My main target is to fill that big wick on Nov. 21st at 150.00. Right now as it's pulling back, I'd like to see it hit an area around 144.00-143.00. If price can take the sell stops, and reverse off that area, then I'll consider calls to 150.00.
Watching closely! 👩🏼💻
*DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor. The ideas and trades I take on my page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. I'm just showing you guys how I trade. Remember, trading of any kind involves risk. Your investments are solely your responsibility and not mine.*
NVDA BUY POINT & SELLING POINTBuy Point and Sell Point to look over
Since the daily chart shows bearish momentum, there is a risk that the price may continue to move down or stay weak in the short-term. This means that if you enter the trade now, you could face a pullback before the uptrend resumes, which could reduce the value of your call option initially.
NVDIA Channel Up ready to explode in 2025 for a $350 target.NVIDIA corporation (NVDA) has started the week on a bullish 1W candle, following last week's reversal pattern. Technically that reversal is being formed exactly at the bottom of the long-term Channel Up pattern that started on the October 10 2022 market bottom.
This 2-year pattern is technically very similar to the Channel Up that started on the weekly bottom of December 24 2018. The similarities between the two patterns are striking. As you can see both started after an oversold 1W RSI (<30.00) touch, which then formed Higher Lows, making the price rebound on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). Then, using the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) as the Support, the 2019 - 2021 Channel Up expanded all the way to the 6.0 Fibonacci extension, until the eventual break below the 1W MA50 and the 2022 Inflation Crisis.
Observe also how similar their 1W RSI sequences are. Right now it appears that we are after a technical pull-back similar to May 10 2021. The 1W MA50 is supporting and the 1W RSI (which has already made a Double Bottom rebound (green circles)) is bouncing off its MA (yellow trend-line) and looking for a break-out above the (dotted) Channel Down.
We have already set two Targets ($190 and $240) for on NVDIA on our previous analysis, but this time we move a little further, making a projection for the end of this Cycle. And the final Target is $350, exactly on the 6.0 Fibonacci extension, the level that formed the November 22 2021 Top.
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NVDA on the Rise: Key Levels, Trading Strategy for Dec. 5Trading Plan for NVDA
Technical Analysis & Price Action:
* Current Trend: NVDA is trading within an ascending channel, indicating a short-term uptrend. The price is approaching a key resistance zone near $146, while maintaining support at $140.
* Support Levels: Immediate support at $140.34 and stronger support at $137.83.
* Resistance Levels: Current resistance at $145.79. A breakout above $146 could test $150.
* Liquidity Zone: The $140-$142 zone shows significant buying interest, evident by the volume spike and price rejection from lower levels.
Order Block Insights:
* A bullish order block is identified around $140-$141, where large buying volumes emerged, pushing the price higher. This zone could serve as a re-entry point if the price pulls back.
Scalping Gameplan:
1. Entry for Scalping:
* Buy above $145.80 for a quick scalp targeting $146.50-$147.
* Look for a pullback to $140-$141 and enter on bullish confirmation for a tight stop-loss setup.
2. Stop Loss: Place stop-loss slightly below $139.50 to manage risk.
3. Exit Targets: For scalping, take profit near $146.50-$147 and adjust based on momentum.
Swing Trade Strategy:
* Bullish Outlook: Enter above $146 on a confirmed breakout for a swing trade targeting $150-$152. Set stop-loss below $140 for risk management.
* Bearish Outlook: If the price fails to hold $140, a short trade could target $137.80, with stop-loss above $142.
Suggestions & Projections:
* NVDA is exhibiting bullish momentum, but the overextended MACD hints at a potential pullback. Watch for volume confirmation near resistance before entering.
* For scalping, stick to tight levels and monitor volatility. Swing traders can wait for a breakout above $146 or a retest of $140 for optimal entries.
Thoughts:
* NVDA is showing strength, supported by robust volume, but caution is advised as the stock nears resistance. A breakout could attract fresh buyers, pushing the stock higher.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always perform your own due diligence and trade responsibly.
NVDA to $180 or $190 in 35 days ?NVDA is re-entering an upward channel that began on August 5, 2024, when it hit a low of $90.69 following its 10:1 stock split. This movement coincides with the stock surpassing the key $140.76 high recorded on June 20, 2024, which we identify as the end of Wave 3 in its major bullish cycle .
After the Wave 4 correction , which took the price from $140.76 down to a low of $90.69 on August 5, 2024, NVDA appears to have started a Wave 5 . This wave has the potential to drive the price to $180.00, or even $190.00, possibly by Friday, January 17, 2025 , the last trading session before the inauguration of President Donald Trump.
Our Perspective on NVDA's Major Bullish Cycle
We divide this cycle into the following stages, based on Elliott Wave theory:
Wave 1
Period: May 13, 2016, to November 22, 2021
Price movement: from $1 to $34.65 (+3365%)
Wave 2
Period: November 22, 2021, to October 13, 2022
Price movement: from $34.65 to $10.81 (-68%)
Wave 3
Period: October 13, 2022, to June 20, 2024
Price movement: from $10.81 to $140.76 (+1202%)
Wave 4
Period: June 20, 2024, to August 5, 2024
Price movement: from $140.76 to $90.69 (-36%)
Wave 5 (in progress)
Estimated period: August 5, 2024, to January 17, 2025
Projected price movement: from $90.69 to $180.00 (channel midpoint) or $190.00 (channel top) (+100% projected).
Key Levels to Monitor
$180 as the channel midpoint , and $190 as the upper limit by January 17, 2025.
If NVDA exits the upward channel and breaks below $131, we will exit our position in the stock .
Our opinion is for educational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation to buy. Before making any investment, consult with your financial advisor.
NVDA heads up at $148.64 then 151.86: Before and After 150 roundNVDA has some major landmarks near 150 round.
Early selling could start a pullback from $148.64
Stop hunts above psych val could pop to $151.86
Of course, 150 round number will be a battle.
But the fib levels show the SUM of all decisions.
So we look for topping signs (or not) at our fibs.
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Ideally but overall still bullish Today was high rising buy, hope everyone made some money. Gl on future trades. Let get to the bag…!
NVDA Hits 2nd Target at $143.60 – Bullish Momentum Prevails!NVDA has successfully reached its 2nd target at $143.60, showcasing strong bullish momentum.
Key Levels: After breaking resistance at $139.25, the price steadily moved towards the next target.
Next Steps: Monitor the price action near $148.52 for potential continuation towards higher levels or a pullback toward support at $139.25.
Congratulations to those who traded this move! 🚀📈 Let’s watch for the next opportunity!
More Bullish Behavior for TechHidden bullish identified on NVDA with a long setting up on the DMI. The +D is breaking above 25 with some spacing. I would like to see this develop a little more, but it's hard to have a bearish perspective on this chart. A 5 wave impulse seems plausible for this stock.
