NVDA JAN 2024Breakout from large multi week base with little to no major dips. One breakout opportunity and one follow up.
NVDAD trade ideas
The Probabilities are stacking up that Nvidia has ToppedAs I have long forecasted, Nvidia is coming into a top of either primary or intermediate degree proportion. The answer to that burning question of mine I believe gets answered in the depth of the price action's retracement lower.
Determining this answer, for me personally as an analyst, is whether or not that eventual retrace can hold above the $90.68 level, which as of this morning stands at 34% lower...so by no means am I looking at this as a mere retracement. 34% is nothing if not significant.
Along the way, we're more informed in the confidence of this forecasted pathway, if price breaches the important $128.74 level. Upon seeing such price action, I believe in the weeks (or months) ahead we could see Nvidia's price action first test $102.73 area. To hold that level and reverse in a micro 5-wave pattern, could bring about our final advance into the $170 (+) area for a long term top. That top I am forecasting in years...not months.
To breakdown below $102.73 could see us decline to as low as the low $70's before a corrective (but Tradeable) rally takes place.
Best to all,
Chris
NVDA , despite announcement ,why not 165$Despite announcement , i think NVDA wil dip more
but only to enforce its upcoming wave , to visit area of 165 $
NVIDIA: A Critical Juncture in its TrendNVIDIA’s stock has been on an impressive upward trajectory this year, but recent price action suggests it’s approaching a pivotal point. The stock has been riding a strong uptrend, anchored by a key trendline stretching from earlier lows this year. This trendline serves as dynamic support, and the current price is hovering near this critical level. Whether it holds or breaks could define the stock’s direction in the coming weeks.
A significant support zone between $130 and $140 adds to the importance of this region. This area, which previously acted as resistance, is now being retested as support. A bounce here would affirm bullish strength and could propel the stock toward its recent highs. However, there are signs of caution. Increased volume on recent bearish candles suggests selling pressure is mounting. If the price breaks below both the trendline and the support zone, it could signal a deeper correction, with the next significant support levels likely near $115 or even $100.
The immediate resistance for NVDA lies in the $150 range, where the stock previously struggled to push higher. This level represents a key obstacle for bulls. For a continuation of the bullish trend, a decisive breakout above this zone is necessary. Conversely, bearish signals, such as the recent bearish engulfing candles, indicate that sellers are gaining control, at least in the short term. A failure to hold the $130 level would confirm a breakdown and likely accelerate the downside.
For long-term investors, NVIDIA’s AI-driven growth story remains intact, but caution is warranted at these elevated valuation levels. For traders, this is a decisive moment, with opportunities both for those looking to trade the bounce and for those eyeing a breakdown.
This is a pivotal moment for NVIDIA, and patience is key in determining the next move.
NVIDIA 4thWeekNov24i will buy near base around 134
now bull run is about starting as price looking for strong supply
how far nvidia will go this time ?
$NVDA Great Dip OpportunityPrevious $128.75 Lows to $144.42 Highs = Drop to 0.786 Fib ($132)
Current $132.07 Lows to $152.90 Highs = Drop to 0.786 Fib ($136)
Gap #1: $138.66 - $141.10 (1.6% - 3.5% Gain from Current Price $136)
Gap #2: $143.89 - $146.30 (5.5% - 7.3% Gain from Current Price $136)
Currently down around 11% from All-Time Highs.
Likely to see a Bounce in the nearby future.
NVDA Bearish movementsAfter my last analysis everything seems to be headed the direction I have predicted. Beautiful doble top and break of minor trendline. I expect that the bearish flag that broke channel to the downside continues more movement with the minor bearish flag it created at close of market today in order to continue movement toward major trendline for a bounce.
In just a few more days we can buy at a discount NVDA for the upside again.
NVDA Exhaust NVDA has a unique way of going down to scale up in a multiple flag pattern towards each highs.
Last time NVDA had a leg on it’s major trend-line was July 2024.
This up movement it just did is changing the way NVDA usually scales back up and bring a similarity to when it dropped when it bounced of 131 resistance down to 110.
My prediction is this high movement to the upside is a reaction before earnings, which will cause a reason to take liquidity on the remaining portion of the resistance to become bearish.
NVDA can drop down to the FVP that never closed on the 120 area in order to make another leg on its bullish major trend-line.
If the news are good enough after the chip issue then it invalidates my prediction. But I am feeling confident on this change of structure, since NVDA is moving differently in nature.
NVDA | Unpacking NVIDIA’s Q3 FY25Building the Matrix, One GPU at a Time
This week, NVIDIA unveiled its October quarter results, capturing global attention as analysts closely monitored the stock's movements. While Wall Street often emphasizes short-term performance, a broader perspective highlights NVIDIA's remarkable rise. Over two years, its stock value has multiplied tenfold, outpacing tech giants like Alphabet and Amazon in profitability and edging closer to Microsoft and Apple in net income—a meteoric ascent for the history books.
The AI Inflection Point
NVIDIA's transformation began in November 2022 when OpenAI launched ChatGPT, described by CEO Jensen Huang as AI's "iPhone moment." Fast-forward two years, and NVIDIA's latest Blackwell GPU architecture is scaling up production, meeting surging demand. As Huang explained, "The age of AI is in full steam," driven by foundational model training and inference advancements. Two major trends underpin this shift:
-Platform evolution:Transitioning from traditional coding to machine learning.
-Emergence of AI factories:New industries powered by generative AI applications.
AI native startups are booming, and successful inference services are proliferating. If AI's trajectory mirrors the mobile revolution, this is akin to 2009 a pivotal moment with much more innovation ahead.
Q3 FY25 Highlights
NVIDIA's fiscal year ends in January, and the recently concluded October quarter (Q3 FY25) demonstrated strong momentum:
- Revenue: $35.1 billion (+17% quarter-over-quarter), exceeding expectations by $2 billion.
- Segment growth:**
- Data Center: +17% QoQ ($30.8 billion).
- Gaming: +14% QoQ ($3.3 billion).
- Automotive: +30% QoQ ($0.4 billion).
- Margins: Gross margin at 75%, operating margin at 62%.
- Cash flow: Operating cash flow of $17.6 billion; free cash flow of $16.8 billion.
- Q4 FY25 Guidance: Anticipates +7% revenue growth ($37.5 billion).
Key Drivers and Insights
-Data Center Dominance:Contributing 88% of overall revenue, driven by Hopper GPUs and the anticipated Blackwell production ramp.
-Gaming Growth:Propelled by GeForce RTX GPU demand and back-to-school sales.
-Automotive Innovation:Growth fueled by AI-powered autonomous driving solutions.
-Margins:Slight compression due to Blackwell production ramp, with recovery expected as production scales.
Looking ahead, demand for NVIDIA's Hopper and Blackwell GPUs outpaces supply, likely remaining constrained into FY26. However, challenges loom, including intensifying competition from AMD and custom AI chips.
The AI Scaling Debate
Skeptics argue AI scalability may be approaching its limits, but Huang is optimistic, citing advancements in reinforcement learning and inference-time scaling. He emphasized that AI's growth is driven by empirical laws, suggesting scalability could be extended through methods like post-training and test-time scaling.
CEO and CFO Perspectives
- Huang likens modern data centers to "AI factories," producing intelligence like power plants generate electricity.
- The shift to "physical AI" unlocks applications in industrial and robotics sectors, powered by NVIDIA's Omniverse.
- Blackwell GPUs are delivering significant cost reductions and accelerating AI workloads.
Investment Outlook
Despite valuation concerns, NVIDIA's profitability is tangible. However, the company's reliance on sustained GPU demand and a concentrated customer base presents risks. Meanwhile, competition from AMD is intensifying.
Final Thoughts
If ChatGPT was AI's "iPhone moment," the transformation is just beginning. Like the app economy in 2009, the AI-first revolution is poised to unlock entirely new markets and reshape industries. NVIDIA's leadership positions it at the forefront of this multi-trillion-dollar opportunity.
Long $NVDA @ 144.50- SL $ 137.0Long NASDAQ:NVDA @ 144.50- SL $ 137.0
Tgt $ 151
Tgt-2 - $ 155
Tgt-3 - $ 165
If its follow the great earning trend then ultimate tgt $ 190-$200
Please like and follow for more ideas
Thank you
NVIDIA I Set for Potential 20%+ Upside – Key Level Buy Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** NVIDIA Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future.
Thanks for your continued support!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
NVDA Topping PatternUnlike the previous call, I made in NVDA that was corrective.
This double-top pattern is signaling a reversal pattern.
From a trading perspective, this is a great risk/reward setup that is relatively simple. A CRACK! here will likely lead to at least the right side filling, with the potential deeper pullback (reversal)
If on the other hand, it pops above recent highs then no trade or an easy stop out.
As you all know I don't do targets, I think they are silly and only used to pretend one has such insight not only can they call the move but also a "target" too. Yeah well, I'll leave that to the "experts" ;)
Bulls don't be a dick for tick.
Shorts take some early profits to improve cost basis but let this one ride!
NVDA Scalping & Swing Strategy: Liquidity Zones and Next MoveNVDA continues to show dynamic price action, making it an exciting candidate for both scalping and swing trades. Let's break down its current price structure, key levels, and potential trade setups based on technical analysis.
Market Structure:
1. Current Range: NVDA is oscillating between $137 (major support) and $152.91 (key resistance).
2. EMA Analysis: The 9 EMA and 21 EMA on the hourly chart indicate a bearish crossover, showing selling pressure dominating in the short term.
3. Volume Trends: Declining volume suggests indecision. A volume spike near key levels will confirm the next move.
Liquidity Zones:
* Demand Zone (Support): $137–$137.50. Buyers previously stepped in here, and liquidity is concentrated at this level.
* Supply Zone (Resistance): $152–$153. This is a critical zone where sellers rejected higher prices multiple times.
Key Levels:
* Support: $137.06, $141.77.
* Resistance: $144.25, $152.91.
Price Action Insights:
1. NVDA has printed lower highs, signaling bearish intent. However, the current support near $137 is holding firm, showing that buyers are active.
2. Two rejection wicks at $152 suggest that this resistance is a strong hurdle for bulls.
3. Watch for breakout momentum above $144.25 or a breakdown below $137 for confirmation of the next direction.
Order Blocks:
* Bullish Order Block: Around $137. A consolidation area where institutional buying may occur again.
* Bearish Order Block: $152–$153 zone, where sellers aggressively defended the price.
Entry & Exit Suggestions:
For Scalping:
* Entry: Look for a pullback entry near $141.50 if price shows bullish rejection wicks and volume supports upside momentum.
* Target: $144.25 (partial profits), $152 (final target).
* Stop-Loss: Below $140 to minimize downside risk.
For Swing Trade:
* Bullish Scenario:
* Entry: Above $144.25 after a clear breakout with volume confirmation.
* Target: $152.91, followed by $157 for a longer-term play.
* Stop-Loss: Below $141 to protect against false breakouts.
* Bearish Scenario:
* Entry: On a break below $137 with strong bearish candles and volume.
* Target: $130 psychological support.
* Stop-Loss: Above $138.
Thoughts & Projections:
* Bullish Case: If NVDA holds above $141.77 and breaks $144.25, it could aim for $152. However, a lack of momentum above $152 might lead to sideways action.
* Bearish Case: A breakdown below $137 could trigger significant selling pressure, targeting $130 as the next support.
Playbook & Gameplan:
1. Pre-Market Prep:
* Mark $137 and $144.25 on your chart.
* Monitor volume and price behavior near these levels.
2. Scalping Checklist:
* Wait for clear rejection wicks or engulfing candles.
* Use the 9 EMA for short-term trend confirmation.
* Take quick profits; NVDA can be volatile.
3. Swing Checklist:
* Look for higher time frame candle closes above $144.25 or below $137.
* Hold positions longer only if volume confirms breakout strength.
Conclusion:
NVDA is positioned for explosive moves as it consolidates near key liquidity zones. Scalpers can focus on quick trades between $141 and $144, while swing traders should wait for confirmation beyond the $137–$152 range. Stay disciplined and stick to your plan.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk appropriately before making any trades.
$NVDA with a bullish outlook following its earnings #StocksThe PEAD projected a bullish outlook for NASDAQ:NVDA after a positive over reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in drift B with an expected accuracy of 60%.
Watch for Potential Reversal Amid VolatilityRecent Performance: Nvidia's stock has been caught in a bearish trend,
breaking critical support levels with considerable volatility around
earnings announcements. Although the latest revenue report surpassed
expectations driven by strong demand in AI and data center operations, the
market’s reaction has been lackluster, leading to a sell-off post-earnings.
The broader tech sector also exhibits mixed performance, contrasting with
upward stability in competitors like Tesla and Amazon.
- Key Insights: Investors should remain cautious but attentive as Nvidia
navigates significant support levels. The company's promising outlook in AI
and robotics suggests long-term growth potential, yet concerns about its
high valuation may create resistance against upward momentum. Watching the
immediate support and resistance points will be crucial in gauging short-
term viability for trades.
- Expert Analysis: While many analysts retain a bullish perspective on Nvidia's
long-term prospects, caution surrounds its high valuation coupled with the
risk of an impending market correction. Revised price targets reflect a
spectrum of optimism heavily influenced by the demand in the AI sector. The
contrasting price targets highlight deeper market uncertainties, urging
investors to monitor share price closely.
- Price Targets: Based on professional traders' insights, next week’s targets
are set as follows:
- Next week targets: T1 = 160, T2 = 175
- Stop levels: S1 = 140, S2 = 137
- Ensure S2 < S1 < current_price (N/A) < T1 < T2 to comply with trading
strategies.
- News Impact: Nvidia's recent earnings report illustrated record revenue but
failed to maintain momentum, triggering sell-offs due to investor hesitance
about sustaining growth. The company's strategic investments in AI and
robotics underline its commitment to future growth, but speculative risks
loom. Furthermore, its addition to the Dow highlights increased market
interest, warranting ongoing scrutiny from investors.
This analysis strives to encapsulate Nvidia's present standing while preparing
investors to react adaptively to market shifts and sentiment fluctuations in the
coming week.
Nvdia GeardownAfter nailing the bottom in 2023 and selling over the years took my biggest stack and faded last week into the vwap everyday, looking at short opportunities now. Keep your eyes glued to that support level. Already broke on a huge volatility day enjoy the ride, Bounce here needs to lineup with the rest of the market, maybe see another rally we could fade
NVIDIA 200 BY 2025 Reasons Why NVIDIA Could Reach $200 by 2025
NVIDIA (NVDA) has been at the forefront of technological innovation, particularly in the realms of AI and graphics processing, positioning it well for significant stock price growth. Here are several reasons why NVIDIA's stock might hit $200 by 2025:
Dominance in AI and Data Center Markets:
NVIDIA's GPUs are the backbone for many AI and machine learning applications. Their leadership in this space, especially with the advent of AI-driven technologies across industries, is expected to keep revenue growth robust. The company's data center segment has seen exponential growth, with analysts predicting a continued upward trend due to the increasing demand for computing power in AI applications.
Strategic Product Roadmap:
NVIDIA's product pipeline, including the Blackwell architecture, is anticipated to propel the company forward. The Blackwell chips, expected to launch in 2025, are designed to push performance boundaries for AI applications, potentially capturing more market share and driving revenue. The expectation around these new architectures creates a bullish outlook for NVIDIA's stock.
Strong Financial Performance:
NVIDIA's financial results have consistently outperformed expectations. For instance, Q2 FY 2025 saw a revenue increase of 122% year over year, demonstrating the company's ability to maintain high growth rates. Despite a natural slowdown expected due to tougher year-over-year comparisons, the company's growth is still projected to be impressive at around 43% for FY 2026, supporting a narrative of sustained stock price appreciation.
High Barriers to Entry and Market Moats:
The complexity and performance of NVIDIA's offerings create high barriers for competitors, ensuring NVIDIA's market leadership. Analysts highlight NVIDIA's 24-month technological lead in AI GPUs, with high switching costs for customers locked into NVIDIA's ecosystem. This moat is expected to support premium pricing and market share retention, which could translate into stock value growth.
Analyst Optimism:
Numerous Wall Street analysts have set price targets for NVIDIA well above its current levels, with some predicting it could hit $200 or more by 2025. These forecasts are based on NVIDIA's strong fundamentals, technological edge, and market position in AI and computing solutions.
Market Sentiment and Valuation:
Even though NVIDIA's stock trades at a premium valuation (62 times trailing earnings as of recent data), analysts believe that its growth trajectory justifies this price. If NVIDIA continues to meet or exceed growth expectations, its valuation could expand further, driving the stock price towards $200. However, achieving this target would require either a significant earnings surge or a market sentiment favoring even higher multiples for tech growth stocks.
Global AI Adoption:
Posts on X highlight the ongoing global shift towards AI, with NVIDIA at the forefront. The demand for NVIDIA's computing solutions is expected to grow as AI becomes more integral to various sectors, from automotive to cloud computing, thereby supporting stock price growth.
$NVDA NEOWAVE ANALYSIS Experimental analysis with the intention to follow back later on as I am still learning
CRASH INCOMING!!
The pattern is a Diametric
A Diametric is a 7-legged formation
NVDA has reached the target for wave G
The action following a Diametric pattern does not depend on the Diametric itself.
If the movement after wave-G is not more stronger and faster than waves-B, D, and F, then an X-wave is likely forming. If it is, then the Diametric could be part of a larger pattern in progress, or it could represent wave-1 or 3 in a Terminal formation.
Selling Opportunity setup -NVDAIn general me and my brother, we are long on NVDA, but since we noticed multiple red flags, we believe that in the short term there are more odds in favor of a correction than a continuation. We take the upcoming earnings as a trading event and we access the risks versus the potential upside return.
Our trading system gave us a signal for a long entry on the open of 19 November 2024.
We will now show you the red flags:
#1 Pattern similarity
Feels like we traded this pattern before, see the current pattern of Nvidia VERSUS an old pattern of the SPY:
You can clearly see, that there was a correction and a long sideway action, then the price did a NEW HIGH on a small upward channel of higher highs and higher lows.
#2 Not the right volume pattern
You would expect that when the price is rising and makes a new local highs, the volume will increase on the upside, but there is a rise on shrinking volume. Also most of the relative large volume is on the red bars down on the selling side.
Let us do the following thought experiment, if a small edge fund wants to book profit on NVDA which I am sure such an edge fund exists since we are at all new time highs, they would put sell orders so a big edge fund will fill them and they will book a profit. This should be manifested as a large spike in volume, especially when the stock reached a new all-time high twice. But we did not see any spike in volume!
This means as Jesse Livermore liked to put it, the stock is not acting right ! We wanted to see Nvidia making a new high on large volume and push forward to $180 as analysts forecast, but it didn't.
We suspect that the rising in price, is a retail activity being allowed by the puppet master, so the puppet master could sell out Nvidia as high as he can. Hence he is the Master, and the public is the puppet. They are being played to believe that Nvidia will get to $180 right now.
Somehow we feel it's a red flag, that NO VOLUME is entering the market on a rising price. This COULD happen in a case where all the market and public are so bullish on Nvidia that everyone just lifted up all their sell limit orders to $160 plus, so this explains the non existance of volume. However, the odds are not in favour of this behavior since it is not normal human behavior of profit taking.
#3 No shakeout of the public
Previously the market shaked out all the non believers, but now, they just let the stock price chip its way up with higher highs and higher lows to reach $150 but not break it? ... No stop loss hunting to get liquidity from the market? looks suspicious.
#4 Options Chain Large Size on the long side (calls)
At first we wanted to buy options to the long side, but since we saw we were less likely to profit from it since IV (Implied volatility) is 100%+ it made the options prices too expensive, and no room for a reasonable profit. The day after earnings, the IV will drop dramatically and we saw in our indicator that it is a losing bet UNLESS it will actually reach $180 after earnings is released and we are skeptical about it.
See the options volume leaders:
You can clearly see that Nvidia is a leader of sold call options above $150 (open interest).
I don't know if you read the options book, but statistically most options end up worthless...
This is how the market makers make their money...
and it is profitable... to collapse the price of the stock... by selling hardly the stock... so all those options will end up worthless...
Because it is PROFITABLE to make them worthless, we somehow find it hard to believe they will let all those options become at the money by a price jump to $180 right now as analysts say it expects to go. Because this means they will lose lots of money on those sold OUT OF THE MONEY options.
There are substantially more amounts of Calls than Puts. (1.61 ratio).
The volume of options is crazy, this is serious money.
The options in the interesting prices ($150 for example) are 4 times larger calls than puts.
There could be a possibility that if the market sentiment of Nvidia is so bullish that they can't sell the stock down, they will have no choice but to edge themselves, and buy the stock itself which will ultimately drive the price of Nvidia up. We estimate this low in likelihood, given recent other earnings that pushed the stock prices down when the earnings are released after hours.
So what can you expect next?
You can expect this for sure:
If the post-earning movement will be to the upside, your portfolio of other stocks (the market) will not gain the same amount of return.
If the post-earning movement will be to the downside, since all the indexes will get hurt (due to high weight of NVIDIA), the whole market will get HURT, so NVIDIA loss will be reflected also in other stocks in your portfolio.
THE SELLING SETUP is to wait for NVIDIA to crush on earnings so it will crush the market, and then it is the happiest day for DAY TRADING ! to the short side...
Since, the odds for short on the post-earning day, are very high, and it is like a present from the market, since you can prepare yourself to it by waiting for the money to be on the floor, so you just pick it up.
STILL MAKING HIGHER HIGHS BUT ALSO H&S If you had decided to hold the channel in the sideway movement, it would have worked both ways for you, as it did an excellent job for both bulls and bears. The sharper move it has made since joining the DOW is still yet to be seen, waiting for what many have called a run-up to 200. Until then, 131 remains solid support unless some may perceive this pattern as similar to a double top, even though it doesn't measure right for me. Short-term outlook bearish, long-term potential bullish.
NVIDIA’s Candle Shadows and Volume: A Tactical PerspectiveThe recent NVIDIA chart displays significant technical activity around critical levels. The shadow on the 1D chart, particularly below $140, signals buying interest. Key observations include:
1. Shadow Analysis: The large lower wick on the most recent candlestick tested $140 but closed above $142. This suggests buyers stepped in to defend this zone, creating a rebound effect.
2. Volume Surge: The day closed with over 300M in volume, a spike compared to the 20-day average of 200M, indicating heightened activity and interest in the $140-$142 range.
3. Historical Levels: A similar shadow pattern occurred on October 13, when the price tested $132 but quickly recovered. These areas are emerging as reliable demand zones for short-term trading.
4. Key Levels:
• Resistance: $148 remains a tough level, marked by rejection candles with upper shadows.
• Support: $140 is holding, with buyers repeatedly absorbing sell pressure.
Consideration
If the next candlestick closes above $145 with lower volume, it may signal a lack of selling pressure and confirm a short-term bullish reversal. However, a break below $140 with continued high volume could trigger further downside to $135.
