364 Days Sideways (5.25.2015)Maybe it's a good time to a short term "Iron condor"......................
GMD trade ideas
Key Hidden Levels: Earnings price support indicatorI'd like to illustrate a few examples of the methodology I employ to trade equities.
With the aid of the 'Earnings price support' from the 'Key Hidden Levels' indicator pack, we can pinpoint not only where to buy or sell, but also, where the stock will gravitate to after starting a directional move.
We can anticipate wether we want to go long or short, based on fundamentals/valuation AND technicals combined.
Using RgMov we can validate our entries when retesting the earnings levels to discard potentially more dangerous trades. In my experience, win rate is really high, and in most cases we can trade them with a very tight stop loss too.
Just being aware of where the stocks reported earnings, and what price action did at the time, tells you most of what you need to know in an actionable manner, and this trading methodology and indicator will aid tremendously in making effective decisions.
We cover many setups of this type in Tim West's chatroom, and it's a big part of the way I trade equities.
Feel free to comment. Maybe you can stop by the chatroom, subscribe and help us spot these great trade opportunities, since we can't monitor absolutely ALL the securities out there.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
GM General Motors pulling back to massive support Using the KEY LEVELS method, GM is a low-risk buy against the support created by the last earnings report.
I like to trade against these KEY LEVELS and enter AFTER earnings have been released and the stock revisits the KEY LEVEL. If you rally INTO the Key level then it is RESISTANCE. If it falls down TO the Key level then it is support.
Risk is 1 average range on the other side of the key level.
Upside is to the high of the rally prior to the retest of the Key level.
Target 32-32.50.
32.50 is also a level of LOW VOLUME which is "massive resistance".
Why didn't it trade any volume at 32.50? Because there was a huge seller there and it drove it down under that price. The first time back to it you will see a meaningful reaction.
Cheers.
Tim
11:32AM Friday April 8, 2016
GM 29.48 last, 28.50 stop, 32.50 target.
Shorting $GM todayWent short at 29.87 near market close, SL 30.55, based on BB, MACD, RSI, and mid term trend.
GM General Motors In the Buy Zone HereRefer to my previous posts on GM and the 0.85 book value ratio.
Tim
GM reached key valuation level at the August lowIn several previous posts I have made on GM, I have pointed out the 0.85 x's book value level. Most recently last fall when GM was below $30.
The key to any investment strategy is also having an exit plan. GM traded up nearly 40% in valuation from the low last fall to the high last spring before turning back down last summer. Any variety of exit plans could have helped you exit with decent profits on the way up or on the way back down.
Is there a reason the MAGIC 85% of BOOK VALUE LEVEL Has NAILED the bottom the last 3 times? I think so. It is because VALUE INVESTORS utilize these ratios to determine entry levels. Why is 0.85 x's book value important? Because that is the level that gives value investors a margin of safety to buy $1 of assets for 85 cents. It is a pattern of valuation that we can find using TradingView fundamentals and is really the same as technical fundamentals, or the patterns in fundamental analysis and valuation.
Here's wishing us an entry into GM at 27.65 or lower to get this position into the portfolio.
Another way to accomplish this is to sell $30-strike puts going out 3-6 months where you collect at least $2.35 in premium, which will net you an entry price of $27.65 as long as GM is below $30 at expiration. $30 is the price you will buy the stock, less the premium that you collect on selling the put options, if GM is below $30 at expiration. That is a risk, that you miss any returns beyond $30.
GM - it's on my shopping list - because of the healthy earnings it has generated in the last 4 quarters: 1.29, 0.86, 1.19, 0.97 for a whopping $4.31 in earnings or 15% earnings yield ($4.31/$28.74 last = 14.99%)
Fears of a recession and rate hikes by the Fed have investors unnerved, but you have a large margin of safety when you are investing with returns that are 15%, which is a far cry from Treasury bonds, notes and bills which are yielding a small fraction of that.
$28.71 last GM 11:19AM EST 9/29/2015
GM don't think much upside left in this unless it's a big brkoutGM is closing in on the descending weekly resistance trendline at about 37.50.
Currently weekly is also facing a horizontal resistance which needs to be broken first to reach 37.50 zone. Breaking 37.50 will need a very big push and with volume to consider this breakout a real breakout.
All in all even if GM turns bullish in short term I don't think it will have legs to break 37.50, where it can be a good shorting opportunity.
Important area to watch on GMPositive news drives GM to this interesting area. There is resistance and two harmonic bearish patterns. See if the force of the bulls drives through this area and enter long (maybe after retest?) or enter short if harmonic patterns and resistance area holds.
GM WEEKLY CHART.looking for a buy entry signal on the daily or 4-hr charts of GENERAL MOTORS as price seems to be stalling at an important level which has held well a few times in the past...
adding to the above , based on pattern trading methodology, price has come to a completion of a bullish cypher pattern( IN BLUE)..at D..
GM: Current Situation, Looking For Longs In Near FutureFriends,
Looking for an entry to the upside, waiting for a downside pullback first before I commit any funds here. Looking for the pullback to come in at around 34.40's
I want to see a move down one more time, and to see some criteria filled to get me into this stock, these notes are found on the chart.
A lot of average traders would see the last couple days of buying and assume something is happening. Whilst it COULD potentially carry on upward, it's too risky for me, and I don't take risk like that on stocks, when I can easily find a better stock for today, and wait for this one to do something more reliable.
Tom
GM: High Probability Trade To The Upside!Friends, Looks like a safe time to look to buy GM for many reasons, as outlined on the chart.
Liking the strong confluence, strong MA test, and the accumulation at the 200 which gives more clarity.
Good luck trading,
Tom
General Motors -GM -Weekly - Turning up from 11% correction GM has suffered relative to the rest of the market, probably due to its US Government shareholder position.
Look at the various positive points here:
1. Consistently profitable - note the 4th pane which shows after-tax profits margins
2. Revenues slowly growing. Not much growth, but not declines.
3. Turning up after a steep 31% correction into the 4Q of 2014 from 42 to 29/sh.
4. The overall market is closer to 2 times sales, but GM trades for 0.37 times sales.
5. Closing above last week's trading range = a signal that the correction may be over.
6. Upside to $39, downside to $34.50 or roughly 3:1 upside/downside ratio.
Tim 2:27PM EST Friday, May 22, 2015 35.71 last GM
GM - Review of Entry Long in October and Exit in February -RatioHere is another way to look at trade ideas - relative to the S&P500.
Ratio charts allow you to quickly see how one asset is performing relative to another and if you go "LONG GM" in this example, you are really choosing to own GM instead of the "Market". So, it is important to be good and make money on your ideas, but if you had made more money by just owning the market, then in reality you really aren't benefiting from all of the hard work and effort of stock picking.
You can also see that since exiting in February GM has fallen relative to the market. I can add GM and SPY to this chart so you can see which market drove the ratio up and down, but in this case GM has fallen and the market has risen since February.
Small note: I multiplied GM by 100 so that the resultant ratio would be similar to a stock price that you are familiar with: 16.76 last instead of 0.1676.
The ratio changes are highlighted using the "Price Range" function on the drawing tools menu.
Wishing you all success, relative to the market.
Cheers,
Tim
April 24, 2015 11:46AM EST GM*100/SPY = 16.77 last
Increasing short exposure with GMToday's weak market had me looking for shorts, and this is what i found so far:
An 8 day run up has been broken at a key resistance level.
6 days before earnings - the price should be rather directional at this point - if the idea is wrong, then the exit will be quick, above the current swing high.
Has been relatively weak since mid march, which is a good background for this trade.
