GM trade ideas
General Motors - GM - Republishing Buy Signal from OctoberGraphing fundamentals is extremely important for an investor. You can see important levels that matter to other fundamental investors.
The reason for GM's recent strength may be simply from falling crude oil prices and still low interest rates along with generous financing available for automobiles.
Given the sharp drop in crude oil, I think the best days for this trade/investment are behind it and I will be working on reasons to sell short GM over the next week or two, especially as momentum dies up here and the valuation metrics get a bit stretched. 20% return for a solid company like GM is an excellent risk/reward opportunity.
Cheers.
Tim 1:25PM Friday, February 13, 2015
$GM bullish vs. bearishLooking at the 1 year data, $38 is a huge resistance area. Breaking and staying above $38 would serve as a strong support, and would lead to mid-term bullishness, however, the volume is dropping. Otherwise, expect to see some consolidation just under $38 or possible bearish reversal. Stay tuned.
GM Day Trade Retest Gap (Brad Reed Feb10,2015)GM expected to open at 37.33 for a Retest Gap To learn to trade this strategy for free go to www.RealLifeTrading.com
GM Retest Gap Day Trade (Brad Reed Feb4,2015)GM expected to open at 35.35 for a Retest Gap. To learn this strategy for free go to www.RealLifeTrading.com
GM backslides to target levelGM shares stopped falling in mid-October, bouncing off USD 30.50, a strong historical level. Attempts to break out of the falling band YTD were blocked at the USD 33.80 local resistance level. At this point, the band, within which GM tried to trade up, was breached to the downside. The stock has already retraced to the breakout boundary. Investors can short the stock at prices close to the current levels with the target noted above. The stock is very likely to retrace to USD 30.50 and try to break through this level.
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GM ready to motor$34 key level after Fridays move up over 200EMA and high volume with price finishing near highs. Although ex-div today a $35 bought call may be interesting on a break of 34
higher low@ resistance, in a bear market.The chart shows gm price (higher low) at a resistance level. Also, it explains a scenario of price taking out the current low, and where a level to watch to indicate if the sellers interest is now longer as strong.
General Motors -GM - Daily - The magic 85% of book value buy sigThe MAGIC 85% of BOOK VALUE LEVEL
Has NAILED the bottom the last 3 times.
Do you think fundamentals matter?
Yes they do.
Tim
10/23/2014
I published this yesterday morning but somehow it didn't publish. So, I understand if you feel that this is "late". GM is over $32 pre-market this morning on earnings release.
Trouble ahead for GM10-1-14: With any broad market weakness, or perhaps just the lack of market strength, GM appears to likely break a trend line that has been important since Jul-2011. With the current wedge being formed the final price objective would be 21-22 range.
The first initial drop may take GM to the 27-28 range where there has been support/resistance found in the past. This 1st move could happen quickly if the trend breaks. Final target would be around the 22-22 range. No positions yet on GM but something worth watching. If weakness from yesterday continues with a further drop below the trend then a re-test and subsequent failure to recapture the trend may be the cue to position for the downside.
GM shortI will look fro swing possibility under 32.80 based on daily triangle and enough room for move to $30 area what will be target area. Also for today I have MGM as short and PII long and charts can see on site (FREE)
GM - Double bottomThe weekly chart says nothing
The daily though has a very bullish pattern, double bottom with divergences on all oscillators, at a very important support area. Secondly, the Weis Wave has a bullish pattern too. I'll explain using the numbered wave labeled on the indicator.
1 - normal selling volume, higher than previous buying waves, but no real progress made.
2 - Bullish change in behavior, the highest buying volume GM saw since May.
3 - Price came back to test the level at which wave 2 started, but you can notice how small this wave is = low volume pullback.
4 - back to green
Look for 35$, and 38$. I believe 38$ is a bit too much, this is not a strong stock. If the impulse becomes red again, this will be a losing trade.
Time to Buy $GM?Probably yes, but the chart still warns a possible leg down from here which may be even an opportunity to buy. When it comes trading, its all about your time horizon or time-frame for the trade. If u want to quick in/out trades you just need to have set of indicators, u will have a good chance to win most of the time. Here, the recall had strong effects on the company's bottom line as we have seen last week's earning. With all the drama surrounding the recalls and how long it will continue, the company still managed a strong sales, significant growth in China, strong balance sheet, positive free cash flow plus a great dividend. With these in mind, price hovering technically above May low n above recommended 25% projected bounce, we still another retest of July high. Stay tuned to see more like this and follow us.
General Motors GM Daily - How to Capture Trend Using Range MovHow to Trade - Steps #1 through #4
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#1 - Calculate the Trend - Up or down
#2 - Wait until a low-risk time to enter
#3 - Calculate how much to trade (fix your % risk to the distance to the stop loss order)
#4 - Know when you need to exit (3 average true ranges, 3rd range upon entry, CCI readings +100/-100)
GM is in a long position using this handy methodology:
So, #1 - Track "Range Movement" and if it hits a 60-day high or low, that is the trend.
#2 - Then buy turning up from oversold in uptrends. I use 21-day CCI under -100.
Or sell turning down from overbought in downtrends. I use 21-day CCI above +100.
#3 - If you have $100,000 in your account, risk 1% per trade (one possibility, but I'd suggest 1/2%). Buy or sell enough stock to lose the proper amount of your portfolio if the stock hits your stop loss. If you risk $1.00 per share, then you'd buy/sell 1000 shs.
#4 - Exit: Target the opposite end of the CCI spectrum. Buy @ -100, sell at +100 on CCI(21). Sell @ +100, Cover @-100.
General Motors GM Daily How to make money the old fashioned way.... I know the saying is "...to earn it." Courtesy of EF Hutton's famous 1980's tv commercials. But in some ways this is EARNING the money because in order to make this profit you need to become the insurance company. Being an insurance risk manager is a full time job and this trade may seem boring, but it does involve some risk.
The key here is that you have to have enough money in your account to stand ready to buy the shares of GM at the lower price, in this case $27/sh. Every contract you sell, you earn $0.55 (current bid) or $55 and you then are obligated to purchased shares of GM for $2700 until December 20, 2014 when the contract expires.
That is more than 20% below today's prices and at that level you would be earning a 4.44% dividend yield, which is very attractive. You would also be buying GM shares at the same price that the company stands ready to buy them for their treasury account. I think that makes sense to me.
The $55 earnings is what you earn for insuring against a severe market decline. GM has already declined from an outlandish $42 a share in December and touched as low as $32 in the correction.
I think this $55 return is better than holding T-Notes.
Sometimes boring is good. This is a limited-return, boring strategy, but it works.
Consult your financial advisor to see if it is right for you.
Tim 10:53AM EST 5/12/2014
General Motors - Weekly and Daily say shortI'm not going to take this trade, as I am allready short the Nasdaq, CME and long Gold, and I think it's enough.
The correlation between the overall market and the GM Company alternates. It switches from long periods of correlation to long periods where they move in different directions over the weekly charts but swing together on the daily chart. Last months there was a strong decorrelation. The S&P is close to its all time highs, but where is GMC?? This is a clear sign of weakness.
The weekly chart of GMC shows weakness too, notes are on the chart :
On the daily chart, there is a return to the Wave, a falling histogram and a divergence on the sensitive 2 day FI. Volume was very light during this rally.
Even though I won't be trading this, I will set up a trade plan so I can fully review this later.
1 - Get long tommorow at the best price possible, below 35.30.
2 - Set a stop at 35.90.
3 - After a close below 33.50, move stop to breakeven.
4 - Take some profits at 31.80. Move stop above 33.50.
5 - Take more profits at 30.40.
6 - Keep a small part of the position with a stop under the closest daily swing high, targeting 27.
7 - Add only under 31.80.
General Motors GM DAILY EXPLOSION PATTERNI can't add text to the chart at the moment - but I didn't want to miss posting this idea.
It looks like GM just can't rally despite the surge back up in Ford (F). GM is struggling with the recall news and liability and lack of confidence issues that could arise from not changing out a cheap part.
The 3 green lines mark the level where GM said they would buy back shares. So, I give that the bottom of the range. The upside is perhaps a retest of the peak there at $40. You can see the massive distribution zone marked in red that could easily be the liquidation by long term holders. For now, we have to assume that is what has happened, especially because the price is below that zone (the volume weighted average price of that time zone).
I think it is clear that GM wont be at this price in the next 6 months. It will be either 15% higher or 15% lower, as I see it. Maybe that is a bold prediction but this chart pattern together with the news flow tells me this is what to expect.
If you go out to June (3 months) and buy both the 34 strike puts and calls, you will pay 3.72, which means the market is expecting the price of GM to be +/- 3.72 from 34 by the 3rd Friday in June. 30.28-37.72 is quite a wide range.
I think it makes sense to own both sides for a month and see what happens. If one side makes a big move, we can take a stock position to offset (buy on a dip) or just leg out of one side of the trade.
Tim 11:57AM EST 4/2/2014 GM 34.54 last
