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AUDUSD trade ideas

AUD/USD Sell - 15 mins Idea Title: AUD/USD Short Position: Rising Wedge Breakdown and Liquidity Targeting Market Context: The AUD/USD is showing signs of bearish momentum following a breakdown from a rising wedge pattern, which typically signals a reversal or continuation of bearish trends. The pair is reacting to a significant resistance zone above 0.64500 and appears poised to target lower liquidity levels near the daily support. Trade Setup Details: Entry: 0.64533 Stop Loss (SL): 0.64270 Take Profit (TP): 0.64063 Technical Analysis: Rising Wedge Breakdown: The price action formed a rising wedge pattern, indicating exhaustion of the bullish move. A clean breakout to the downside confirms bearish intent. Key Levels: Resistance: Price faced rejection from the 1/3ADR+ zone, confirming strong selling pressure around 0.64550. Support Target: The first target aligns with the AMR- level at 0.64063, which serves as a liquidity pool and demand zone. Bearish Divergence: Momentum indicators suggest divergence during the final wedge highs, adding confidence to the bearish setup. Risk-to-Reward (R:R): The trade offers an attractive R:R ratio, capitalizing on a retracement towards the lower support zone. Trade Justification: The rejection from the resistance zone coincided with the broader downtrend, making the short trade a high-probability setup. Liquidity below 0.64100, along with the AMR- level at 0.64063, provides a clear target for bears to aim for. Trading Plan: Entry Confirmation: Ensure the price continues to respect the resistance zone around 0.64500, without invalidating the setup. Risk Management: Keep the stop loss tight at 0.64270, just above the recent structure high, to minimize risk in case of reversal. Exit Strategy: Take profit at 0.64063, near the key liquidity pool and demand zone, ensuring a disciplined exit. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before trading.
Short
by tamrobert20
FAKEOUT WATCHOUT FOR BULLISH BREAKOUTOur analysis is based on multi-timeframe top-down analysis & fundamental analysis. Based on our view the price will rise to the monthly level. DISCLAIMER: This analysis can change anytime without notice and is only for assisting traders in making independent investment decisions. Please note that this is a prediction, and I have no reason to act on it, and neither should you. Please support our analysis with a like or comment! Let’s master the market together. Please share your thoughts and encourage us to do more by liking this idea.
Long
by dkb14246
AUDUSD - Long-Term Long!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈AUDUSD has been overall bullish, trading inside the rising flat channel in blue. Moreover, it is rejecting a strong support in green. 🏹 The highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the support zone and lower trendline acting as a non-horizontal support. 📚 As per my trading style: As #AUDUSD is around the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
Long
by TheSignalyst
19
Bullish Divergence on AUD/USD—Key Resistance Ahead!OANDA:AUDUSD Multi-Timeframe Analysis After analyzing the chart, we observed that the price found strong support at 0.64698, accompanied by a bullish divergence on the daily timeframe. Following the Change of Character, the price is likely to move toward the Major Resistance at 0.65913. Key Levels: • Ultimate Support: 0.64698 • Major Resistance: 0.65913 • Ultimate Resistance: 0.67138 Reminder: Consistently following your risk management strategy is crucial for long-term trading success. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always trade responsibly. Happy trading!
Long
by SpicyPips
Audusd AUD/USD reacts little to better-than-expected Australian Goods Trade Balance data and remains in a range above 0.6400 early Thursday. Rising bets for an early RBA rate cut cap the Aussie's upside amid China's economic woes and US-Sino trade war fears. Eyes turn to US data, FedspeakThe AUD/USD pair dives more than 1% to near the round-level support of 0.6400 in Wednesday’s European session. The Aussie pair plummets as the Australian Dollar (AUD) has been hit hard by weaker-than-projected domestic output data for the third quarter of this yearThe Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the Australian economy surprisingly expanded at a slower-than-expected pace of 0.8% compared to the same quarter of the previous year against the 1% growth seen in the previous quarter of this year. Economists estimated the annualized Q3 GDP growth of 1.1%. On a quarterly basis, the Australian economy expanded by 0.3%, slower than expectations of 0.4% but faster than the former reading of 0.2%
Short
by KingForex078
Yen and Aussie slide | FX ResearchThe two biggest movers in the FX market on Wednesday have been the Yen and the Australian Dollar, both of which have come under significant pressure. The Yen has been sold on reduced odds of a BoJ rate hike this month, following a local news article suggesting the central bank would likely prefer to wait and carefully assess developments in the U.S. economy and other factors before making any changes to rates. Additionally, various central bankers have indicated that the BoJ should avoid hasty decisions regarding further rate hikes. In Australia, market sentiment has been weak following a softer Australian GDP report and discouraging China Services PMIs. Elsewhere, attention is focused on updates from France, where the market is closely watching the no-confidence vote. A collapse in the government could result in the worst political crisis France has faced in decades. In the UK, dovish comments from BoE Governor Bailey suggested expectations of four rate cuts next year as inflation continues to ease. Looking ahead, key events include an ECB Lagarde speech, U.S. ADP employment data, ISM Services, factory orders, a speech from Fed Chair Powell, and the release of the Fed Beige Book. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets
Aussie tumbles to 4-month low after soft GDPThe Australian dollar has taken a tumble on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6416, down 1.1% on the day at the time of writing. Earlier, the Australian dollar dropped as low as 0.6407, its lowest level since August 5. Australia’s GDP report was a disappointment, falling short of expectations. GDP rose 0.3% q/q in the third quarter, following three straight quarters of 0.2% growth. This missed the market estimate of 0.5%. Annually, GDP rose 0.8%, below the  Q2 gain of 1% and shy of the market estimate of 1.1%. A key reason why GDP growth has been weak is soft household consumption. Consumers have been battered by high interest  rates and stubborn inflation, and private domestic demand was negligible in the second and third quarters. The soft GDP report was a bust with the markets and sent the Australian dollar tumbling lower. The report is unlikely to cause any changes from the Reserve Bank of Australia, which has been in a prolonged “higher for longer” stance. The RBA has managed to bring headline inflation within the target of 2%-3%, but remains concerned about underlying inflation, which rose to 3.5% in October. The RBA makes its next rate announcement on Dec. 10 and is widely expected to maintain the cash rate at 4.35%, where it has been for over a year. The markets aren’t expecting a rate cut before May 2025, although a surprise decline in inflation in the coming months could push the central bank to lower rates in Q1 2025. AUD/USD has pushed below support at 0.6447. Below, there is support at 0.6382 0.6563 and 0.6613 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
1
AUD/USD: The Bear is Lurking – A Breakdown in the Making?Hey Forex fam! 🌍✨ Let’s talk about the Aussie Dollar (AUD) versus the Greenback (USD) – the pair that's been stuck in a battle royale of consolidation! 🧐 But here’s the scoop: the bears are sharpening their claws 🐻, and we might just be on the edge of a big breakdown! 🚨 🔍 The Setup: A Symmetrical Triangle (Bearish Edition!) 📉 Chart pattern: For the last few years, AUD/USD has been dancing between two trendlines, forming a symmetrical triangle – a classic consolidation pattern. Think of it like a coiled spring, ready to pop... but in the bearish direction! 👇 👀 Why bearish? 1️⃣ The triangle is following a long-term downtrend. The pair has been sliding since 2013, and this consolidation looks like a classic continuation pattern. 2️⃣ Momentum is fizzling out as we approach the apex of the triangle – suggesting that a downside breakout could be just around the corner. 📉 Levels to Watch: The Bear's Roadmap Support to break: 0.63 – the bottom of the triangle and a critical level to confirm the bearish breakdown. Next bearish targets: 0.60: A psychological barrier. 0.56: The low not seen since 2008 (ouch!). 💡 Why is the Bear in Control? 1️⃣ Fundamentals 📰: With the Federal Reserve still hawkish 💵 and China’s economic recovery slowing 🐢 (a key driver of AUD strength), the Aussie is under pressure. 2️⃣ Risk sentiment 😬: Investors are flocking to safe-havens like the USD in uncertain markets, leaving the AUD vulnerable. ⏳ Timing the Breakdown ⚡ Be ready for action! The pair is sitting right at the edge of the triangle. A daily close below 0.63 could trigger an avalanche of selling pressure. But remember: wait for confirmation – false breakouts can wreck your P&L! 🚨 🔥 Pro Tips for Trading the Breakdown ✅ Trade the breakout: Short AUD/USD once it closes below 0.63, and target 0.60 or lower. ✅ Set stop-losses: Place them slightly above the triangle (~0.64) to protect against fakeouts. ✅ Patience is key: Don’t rush in – let the price action confirm the direction. The Bearish Bottom Line 🐻 AUD/USD is playing a waiting game, but the technicals and fundamentals both scream downtrend continuation. If the bears break through 0.63, get ready for a dive that could take us to 2008 levels! 📉 Are you ready to ride the bear? 🐻💥 Let me know your thoughts below, and as always, trade safe! 💪✨
Short
by EdgeDotForex
AUDUSD Analysis - Bearish - Trade 021. Seasonality: During the first week of December, the USD exhibits bearish momentum, while the AUD shows bullish tendencies. This combination makes AUDUSD overall bullish. 2. COT Report: The AUD's COT RSI and Index are near the top, while the USD is near the bottom, indicating potential overextension. This suggests a bearish outlook for AUDUSD. 3. Fundamental Analysis: LEI The USD Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) is increasing, while the AUD LEI is decreasing. Global LEI is also rising, favoring USD strength and adding a bearish tone to AUDUSD. Endogenous Factors These suggest bearish pressure for the AUD and bullish sentiment for the USD, further supporting a bearish bias. Exogenous Factors Exogenous influences, however, indicate an increase in AUDUSD, favoring a bullish trend. 4. Technical Analysis: AUDUSD is forming an ABCD pattern and is currently at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level on the 1-hour chart. Additionally, there is significant resistance on the 4-hour chart, indicating potential bearish pressure from a technical standpoint. Summary The analysis presents mixed signals: seasonality and exogenous factors favor bullishness, while the COT report, LEI trends, endogenous factors, and technical resistance suggest bearish potential. Bias The combined analysis leans toward a short entry for AUDUSD. Trade Plan Entry: 0.64746 SL: 0.65130 TP: 0.64362
Short
by asadamalik