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Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar

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AUDUSD trade ideas

Looking at bullish set upAUD/USD bounced sharply and revisited the 0.6470 zone. The US Dollar kept a vacillating tone at the beginning of the week. The RBA is expected to keep its OCR unchanged on Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) traded in an irresolute fashion on Monday, gyrating around the key 106.00 zone when gauged by the Dollar Index (DXY). Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar (AUD) managed to regain strong balance, staging a pronounced rebound to the 0.6470 region after bottoming out near 0.6380 during early trade.
by EZIO-FX
2
The AUDUSD: look this week for 1H chart to make a double bottom This down move is exhausted. Let the pair rest, and go make a 1,2,3 bottom. A one-two-three bottom (as labeled) is like a double bottom but the bottoms don't have to be exactly even. That is why I said 1,2,3 bottom. You can think of it as a double bottom. At the end of the double bottom, go long. All of this will take several days this week to develop. Be patient and you can track the progress of the double bottom, but get ready for a up move after the double bottom.
Long
by SAILBOATEVANMOSERS
AUDUSD Smart Money Concepts (SMC)In modern trading, especially within the Smart Money Concepts (SMC) methodology, terms such as Order Blocks, Imbalances, Breaker Blocks, and Inverted FVG (Fair Value Gaps) are widely used. Below is a detailed explanation of each: --- 1. Order Blocks An Order Block is a zone on the chart where large institutional investors have left "traces" of their operations, meaning a place where there was a concentration of buying or selling activity. It is typically the last candle before a significant price movement. Bullish Order Block: The last bearish candle before a strong upward movement. Bearish Order Block: The last bullish candle before a strong downward movement. How to use: Price often returns to order blocks before continuing the trend. Order blocks are used as potential entry or exit zones. Example: If the market is falling and a sharp reversal upwards begins, the last red candle before this rise is the bullish order block. --- 2. Imbalances An Imbalance is a zone on the chart where demand and supply were sharply uneven, creating "gaps" in the market structure. These zones are often referred to as FVG (Fair Value Gaps)—an area between the wicks of the first and last candles of three consecutive candles, where the middle candle does not overlap with the first or third. It is believed that the market tends to fill these gaps, meaning the price often returns to these zones before continuing its movement. How to use: Imbalances can serve as a reference for identifying potential retracement zones. Enter a position when the gap is filled. Example: In an uptrend, if the price rises sharply, creating a gap between the wicks of candles, traders can expect the price to return to this area. --- 3. Breaker Blocks A Breaker Block is a zone that forms when the market breaks a key support or resistance level and begins moving in the opposite direction. They appear where an order block was "broken." Breaker Blocks indicate that the previously dominant trend has been broken, and the market is preparing for a new movement. They can also be used to filter valid order blocks. How to use: After an order block is broken, the former support/resistance zone can serve as an entry point after a retest. Used to identify trend reversals. Example: In an uptrend, if the price breaks below the previous bullish order block, it becomes a bearish breaker block. --- 4. Inverted FVG (Inverted Fair Value Gap) An Inverted FVG is a zone where the market provides excessive liquidity in the opposite direction, creating an opportunity for "smart money" to trap traders in the wrong movement. An Inverted FVG occurs when the market "absorbs" liquidity, making traders believe the trend is continuing, but it is actually a manipulation before a reversal. It is used to analyze price manipulation and find entry points against the "trap." How to use: Enter after the price has covered the FVG zone and confirmed a reversal. Inverted FVGs often appear in zones that collect stop losses. Example: In an uptrend, the price sharply breaks a resistance zone (creating an FVG) but then reverses back and moves downward. --- Conclusion Order Blocks and Breaker Blocks help identify zones where large players may enter the market. Imbalances highlight areas where the price might return to balance demand and supply. Inverted FVGs help traders avoid traps set by large players and enter the market more strategically. These elements are especially useful for traders following SMC principles, as they provide a deeper understanding of the actions of major market participants.
by Tonksovave
Will the Australian Dollar Survive the Perfect Economic Storm?In the intricate dance of global financial markets, the Australian dollar stands at a critical crossroads, facing a confluence of economic challenges that threaten its stability. The convergence of complex factors—including the Federal Reserve's cautious monetary policy, China's economic headwinds, and Australia's domestic economic pressures—creates a perfect storm of uncertainty that challenges traditional economic assumptions and investor strategies. The current landscape reveals a nuanced battleground where geopolitical tensions, central bank decisions, and macroeconomic indicators intersect with unprecedented complexity. Projections suggest the Australian dollar could potentially decline to 62 cents against the U.S. dollar in early 2025, a forecast that speaks to deeper structural challenges facing the Australian economy. The Reserve Bank of Australia's delicate balancing act—managing persistent inflation, maintaining economic growth, and responding to global economic shifts—epitomizes the sophisticated challenges confronting modern monetary policy. Beyond just numbers, this economic narrative reflects a significant test of resilience and adaptability. Investors and economic strategists face a unique moment of transformation, where conventional economic models are being challenged by unprecedented global dynamics. The interaction between U.S. monetary policy, China's economic challenges, and Australia's domestic economic strategy creates an intriguing intellectual puzzle that requires sophisticated analysis and a forward-thinking approach. As the global economic landscape continues to evolve, the Australian dollar's journey becomes a microcosm of broader economic transformations. This is not simply a story of currency fluctuation, but a testament to the complex, interconnected nature of global financial systems—where every decision, from central bank policies to geopolitical strategies, can send rippling consequences through international markets. The true measure of economic strength lies not in avoiding challenges but in the ability to navigate them with insight, agility, and strategic foresight.
Short
by signalmastermind
AUDUSD AUD/USD attracts fresh sellers and is pressured by a combination of factors. A softer risk tone and bets for an early RBA rate cut undermine the Aussie. Subdued USD demand fails to lend any support ahead of the US NFP reportThe AUD/USD pair experienced significant weakness on Friday, sinking near its August lows at 0.6350 after the release of the USThe data showed a much stronger than expected increase in jobs, while rising expectations for an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) added pressure to the Australian Dollar. Additionally, weaker than expected domestic GDP growth figures further dampened the outlook for AUD/USD.
Long
by KingForex078
1
AUDUSD Technical Outlook and Fundamental.AUD currency is facing stubborn inflation and high affordability prices. High interest rates are influencing the construction sectors of AUD negatively. With the housing market being the last thing to prop up the AUD. It is weakening slowly. Rate cuts are needed to relieve the AUD economy. Australia is set target to build 1.2 million homes in 5 years and is expecting to fall short of 500,000 missing it's target by 41% The DXY is showing good strength. With Canada facing high un employment and weak economy. Wars in the middle east and east Europe. Furthermore, French government budget problems. DXY is looking like a safe currency with President elect Donald Trump coming back into office. Not to mention the labor market looking resilient with exception of unemployment rising .1%. If inflation numbers are at same percentage or higher the FED will have to keep rates unchanged. This leads to more hawkish stance. If AUD/USD closes under 0.63580. The next level of support will be at 0.62715.
Short
by Ka1eeb
AUDUSD - Bearish breakoutAUD/USD 15-Minute Timeframe Analysis (Bearish Breakout) 1. Current Setup (Bearish Breakout): The AUD/USD pair has broken below the Kumo cloud, signaling bearish momentum and the start of a potential continuation pattern. This breakout represents the initiation of the I wave, with the price now pulling back to test key resistance levels. 2. Pullback to Fibonacci Levels: After the bearish breakout, the price has retraced to the 23.6% Fibonacci level of the recent move. There is potential for the pullback to extend to the 50% or 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, which would still maintain the bearish structure. Rejection from these levels will confirm the continuation of the downtrend. 3. Trend Continuation and N Wave Formation: The breakout and subsequent pullback form the A-B leg, while the continuation toward lower levels would complete the N wave, a trend continuation pattern. The bearish N wave suggests further downside, targeting lower Fibonacci extension levels. 4. Target Projections: If resistance holds at the 23.6%, 50%, or 61.8% Fibonacci levels, the bearish continuation is expected to aim for the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, completing the N wave. Intermediate targets include the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, which could serve as a short-term support level. 5. Fundamental Alignment: This technical setup aligns with expectations for stronger U.S. dollar fundamentals, especially in light of key economic data releases on Friday. Market sentiment and volatility from these events will be critical to confirming the bearish scenario. 6. Trading Strategy: Entry: Look for bearish candlestick patterns or other confirmation (e.g., rejection at resistance levels or price staying below the Kijun-Sen). Stop Loss: Place stops above the 61.8% Fibonacci level or a prior key high. Targets: First Target: 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Final Target: 161.8% Fibonacci extension (completion of the N wave). 7. Potential Risks: A break above the 61.8% Fibonacci level would invalidate the bearish scenario and indicate a potential reversal. Unexpected outcomes from U.S. economic data releases could lead to increased volatility, impacting this technical setup. 8. Summary: The bearish breakout from the Kumo cloud on the 15-minute chart suggests a continuation of the downtrend. A pullback to Fibonacci resistance levels offers opportunities for trend-following entries. The final target at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension aligns with the completion of the N wave, confirming the bearish outlook.
Short
by Welburg_Trading
AUDUSD - Long SetupMy main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels. In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D key liquidity level and left untouched level higher. But to take more statistically more probable trades we should wait for some type of lower timeframe confirmation. For me the best way to confirm higher timeframe context is structure. We can notice the break of market structure (sign of strength) on key liquidity level with GAP, so there is a higher probability to see price higher at least on opposite level (marked higher). Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
Long
by Maks_Klimenko
7
AUDUSD touching important Support on Daily ChartThe AUD/USD pair has experienced a notable decline of -7.82% in recent weeks, without any significant recoveries. This drop has brought the price to a key horizontal support area, aligning with the previously identified triple bottom level on the daily chart. Additionally, the price has tested an uptrend line that has provided support since mid-2022. The overlap of the horizontal support and the uptrend line creates a technically significant zone, indicating a potential slowdown in selling pressure. Bullish Scenario If the price breaks above the downtrend line, acting as dynamic resistance, it could signal a shift in market sentiment, allowing buyers to regain control. Fibonacci retracement levels would then serve as potential targets: An entry point could be considered if a candle closes above the downtrend line on the daily chart. The first target may be near the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 0.6605 (approximately 110 pips). The second target could be around the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 0.6670 (about 170 pips). A stop loss might be placed just below the recent low at 0.6395 (around 100 pips). For confirmation of the bullish scenario, the price needs to stay above the dynamic resistance and begin forming higher highs and lows. Bearish Scenario Conversely, if the price falls below the horizontal support at 0.6400, it would create room for further declines, potentially invalidating the triple bottom pattern and indicating a continuation of the downtrend. In this case, the next significant support level would be around 0.6300, with chances of moving even lower. Impact of US Employment Data The upcoming US employment data, particularly the Nonfarm Payroll figures, could significantly influence the AUD/USD pair. Weaker-than-expected results may weaken the US dollar, benefiting the Australian dollar and increasing the likelihood of breaking the downtrend line. Conversely, strong US labor market data could exacerbate selling pressure, pushing AUD/USD lower. Summary The AUD/USD is at a pivotal juncture on the daily chart, with the convergence of horizontal support and an uptrend line suggesting a possible reversal. However, the market's direction will hinge on subsequent technical movements and, crucially, on US economic data that could shift the balance of power. Disclaimer: 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK.
Long
by Marketscom
AUDUSD: Mixed Fundamental Bias in Dec2024ABOUT GLOBAL LEI and GDP 1. During H2 of 2024, the Global LEI and GDP are INCREASING. 2. The AUD and USD pair was picked because their LEIs were in opposite direction. 3. Good Golbal GDP would mean we are in RISK-ON situation so good for AUD. AUDUSD: LEI, ENDO and EXO SUMMARY LEI DECREASING : AUD LEI are decreasing but USD LEI are increasing. Overal LEI BIAS BEARISH for AUDUSD. ENDO DECREASING : AUDUSD collective ENDO score is DECREASING from May24. This means AUD is weakening and USD is strengthening. ENDO BIAS BEARISH for AUDUSD. EXOs MIX INCREASING : EXOs of AUD are slowly IMPROVING but overall AUDUSD EXO Bias is MIX INCREASING mainly because of AUD GDP improvement and IR-Diff increase. EXO BULLISH BIAS FOR AUDUSD. EXO+LEI DECREASING: FINAL SCORE: BIAS BEARISH for AUDUSD COT REPORT ANALYSIS As per overall COT analysis, GBBUSD is SHORT opportunity in Dec2024. BIAS BEARISH for AUDUSD AUDUSD: SEASONAL ANALYSIS 1. First week of DEC: 2-6 Dec: AUD is BULLISH and USD is BEARISH. Hence SIDEWAYS to BULLISH BIAS for AUDUSD (Negative USD News expected) 2. 2nd to 3rd Week of DEC: 9-17 DEC: AUD is BEARISH and USD is BEARISH. Hence BEARISH BIAS for AUDUSD 3. 3rd to 4th Week of DEC: 18-31 DEC: AUD is BULLISH and USD is BEARISH. Hence BULLISH BIAS for AUDUSD NEWS EVENTS 1.USD: ISM Manf PMI: 02-Dec-24 (7:00 PM GMT+4) 2.USD: ISM Services PMI: 04-Dec-24 (7:00 PM GMT+4) 3. USD: Fed Chair Powell Speaks: 04-Dec-24 (10:45 PM GMT+4) 3. AUD: GDP q/q: 04-Dec-24 (4:30 AM GMT+4) 4. USD: Unemployment Rate: 06-Dec-24 (5:30 PM GMT+4) 5. AUD: Interest Rate News: 10-Dec-24 (7:30 AM GMT+4) 6. USD: CPI: 11-Dec-24 (5:30 PM GMT+4) 7. AUD: Unemployment Rate: 12-Dec-24 (4:30 AM GMT+4) 8. USD: PPI: 12-Dec-24 (5:30 PM GMT+4) 9. USD: Retails Sales: 17-Dec-24 (5:30 PM GMT+4) 10. USD: Interest Rate: 18-Dec-24 (11:00 PM GMT+4) 11. USD: Consumer Confidence: 23-Dec-24 (07:00 PM GMT+4) 15. USD: Unemployment Claims: 26-Dec-24 (5:30 PM GMT+4) FUNDAMENTAL TRADE BIAS CONCLUSION ON AUDUSD - MIXED (Rely on Tech Analysis) 1. As per ENDOs and LEIs, BEARISH BIAS for AUDUSD 2. As per EXOs BULLISH BIAS for AUDUSD 3. "Summary 3 Score" also giving MIX BIAS indication. 4. Conditionaing Bias: Montly BULLISH BIAS for AUDUSD. 5. COT Analysis: BEARISH BIAS for AUDUSD 6. 1st Week of Dec SEASONALS: BULLISH BIAS for AUDUSD. FINAL BIAS: Because of MIXED Fundamental signals, reply on SEASONALITY and TECHNICAL BIAS, mapped with key news dates. The Interest Rate Announcements on 10th (AUD) and 18th (USD) will have a major impact on AUDUSD. 1. On 10th no change in AUD rate expected 2. On 18th, USD rate is expected to DECREASE, hence could be Bullish for AUDUSD DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TREND: BEARISH as per DOW. DIVERGENCE: Strong BULLISH divergence, providing confluence with Fund Analysis for bullish reveral. Volume Div: No HEIKIN-ASHI: BEARISH confirmed till Weekly/Monthly support of 0.6360. PATTERN: ABCD BULLISH Reversal Pattern seen with D point around strong support of 0.6360 FIB: N/A S&R: Strong Weekly/Monthly support of 0.6360 and current price is 0.642. High probability that this support will be tested by the time USA Interest rate announcement and then BULLISH reversal could be seen. EMA: Price Below 200 EMA ALLIGATOR: Mouth is open supporting strong BEARISH movement. Scho-RSI: Heading downward signalling BEARISH movement till support of 0.6360. DAILY TRADE PLAY: Wait for BULLISH REVERSAL Confirmation BUY STOP: 0.645, SL: 0.62690, TP1: 0.65255 (Around then FIB level 23.60%) TP2: 0.66050 (Around then FIB level 38.20%) 4H TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TREND: BEARISH as per DOW. DIVERGENCE: BULLISH Div present but waiting to be played. HEIKIN-ASHI: Bearish moemntum confirmed. FIB: Heading toward Fib Level 0 @ 0.63995 S&R: Support at 0.63995 and current price is 0.642. High probability that this Support will be broken and strong reveral will happen from 0.6360. EMA: Price Below 200 EMA ALLIGATOR: Mouth is open supporting strong BEARISH movement. Scho-RSI: Again turning down 4H TRADE PLAY: Wait for BULLISH REVERSAL Confirmation BUY STOP: 0.642, SL: 0.62690, TP1: 0.64316 (Around then FIB level 23.60%) TP2: 0.6455 (Around then FIB level 38.20%) 1H TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TREND: Strong BEARISH DIVERGENCE: No, hence BEARISH moement will continue. HEIKIN-ASHI: Bearish moemntum confirmed. FIB: BEARISH retracement happened from 38.2% and then bearish movement happening S&R: Resistance at 0.6455 is respected arounf FIB lev el 38.2%. EMA: Price Below 200 EMA ALLIGATOR: Mouth is open supporting strong bearish movement. Scho-RSI: Below 20 and aslong as it will stay there, BEARISH movement is confirmed 1H TRADE PLAY: BEARISH BIAS Entry: 0.64218, SL: 0.64593, TP1: 0.6384, RR:1.14 TP2: 0.6347
by haroonraees