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ASX SPI 200 Index Futures

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AP1! trade ideas

ASX 200: Is the Santa Rally Finally on the Runway?Did we just see the start of the ‘Santa Rally’ on Australia’s ASX 200? If the daily candle on SPI futures finishes around these levels, the price signal will likely embolden those who have been pining for its arrival. As things stand, we’re looking at a key reversal with the body and range greater than the candle of 24 hours earlier, pointing to the potential for an extended run higher. RSI (14) has broken its downtrend – hinting at a shift in price momentum – although MACD is yet to confirm the signal. While the timing of the futures contract roll emphasises the need for risk management, with just a handful of trading days left until Christmas, this has often been a strong seasonal period Australian stocks. If the price closes above 8310, one setup to consider would be to initiate longs above the level with a stop beneath for protection, targeting the downtrend established from the record highs. A break of that level may open the door for a larger thrust, possibly towards 8420 or 8480. The price needs to overcome 8353 for the setup to succeed, meaning traders should be on alert for signs of hesitancy from this known reversal level. If the price were to close beneath 8310, the bullish setup would be invalidated. Good luck! DS
ASX24:AP1!Long
by FOREXcom
ASX dragged lower by the DowThe Dow Jones futures market fell for an 8th consecutive day on Monday, a bearish sequence not seen in over 12 years. And that's not good news for ASX 200 bulls, as the index tends to track the Dow very closely. The daily chart looks like it wants to head to 8200, and it just 1 - 2 bearish trading days away from it looking at a typical day's range. The 1-hour trend has favoured bearish swing traders, who could seek to fade into moves towards the 20-50 hour EMAs.
ASX24:AP1!Short
by CityIndex
ASX 200 futures look set to bounceThe Nasdaq reached a record high and the S&P 500 is close to reaching its own record high. So while the Dow was lower for a fourth day, 2 out of 3 indices rising could help support the ASX today. It's been over a week since the ASX began retracing from its record high, and with prices now trying to form a base above the monthly pivot point and historical weekly VPOC (volume point of control), I'm now looking for longs. The ASX has opened lower but remains within the overnight range. Assuming prices hold above the spike low, the bias is for a move higher to last week's VAL (value area low) or VPOC.
ASX24:AP1!Long
by CityIndex
ASX 200 futures could tease bears at these highsThe ASX 200 futures market has struggled to retest 8500, after a brief and uninspiring spell above it. Overnight gains on Tuesday were seen on low volumes, and Wall Street indices have provided a weak lead today. A bearish divergence has also formed on the daily and 1-hour chart. While prices have rebounded from the weekly pivot point, price action looks corrective. Hence the bias for it being a corrective channel that could break to the downside. If we see prices rise at the open, I am on guard for it being a 'last hurrah", which could make it a suitable market to fade into with a stop above the record high. The weekly pivot (8390), weekly VPOC (8348) and weekly S1 around 8300 make viable downside targets for bears. MS
ASX24:AP1!Short
by CityIndex
Australian ASX 200 SPI futures look good if you're a bearThe picture for Australian ASX 200 SPI futures look good if you're a bear. We've seen a bearish engulfing candle on Wednesday with follow-through selling today, accompanied by an uptick in volumes. Momentum indicators are providing bearish signals, too. But it is month-end and the price does find itself sitting on the 50DMA, a level that has been respected consistently apart from a period between June and July this year. Even though price and momentum signals suggest selling rallies may work better than buying dips in near-term, unless we see a close beneath the 50DMA, going short beforehand comes across as a low probability play given prior interactions with the level. If the price closes and holds beneath the 50DMA, you could sell with a stop either above it or 8200 for protection. On the downside, 8080 is the first level of note, but to make the trade stack up from a risk-reward perspective, 7860 comes across as a more appropriate target. Good luck! DS
ASX24:AP1!Short
by FOREXcom
1
ASX 200 flirts with bearish reversal breakoutElection jitters are in the air, and it is weighing on Wall Street sentiment - and dragging the ASX 200 with it, which also faces pressure from a spate of weak China figures in recent weeks. A potential head and shoulders top has formed on the daily chart, and prices are close to testing a support zone which could double up as a neckline. For now, the ASX appears hesitant to break the 8130/50 support zone which brings could prompt a minor bounce over the near term. A break beneath 8130 confirms the bearish reversal, which projects an approximate downside target near 7900 and the 200-day EMA. Also note the 8100 and 8000 levels which could provide support along the way MS
ASX24:AP1!Short
by CityIndex
ASX to new highs, or fakeout in the making?The ASX 200 futures chart reached a record high on Wednesday, and momentarily traded above 8400. Yet repeatedly we see the market hold above this level (also note the weekly R3 pivot is within the area). A bearish divergence is forming on the 1-hour chart, so the bias is for a false break of the highs and retracement lower ahead of its next sustained record high. Bears could seek a move towards the 20-hour or 50-hour EMA, or bulls could wait for such a level to be respected as support before rejoining the bullish trend. *Take note that AU employment data is released in just over 1hr* MS
ASX24:AP1!Short
by CityIndex
Make or break day for Australia’s ASX 200For all the headlines surrounding the conflict in the Middle East, many markets remain respectful of levels on the charts, providing traders will some form of certainty in an increasingly uncertain world. Australia ASX 200 SPI futures is among that list, kissing uptrend support in overnight trade before bouncing into the close. But whether the rebound can extend is questionable; we saw a bearish engulfing candle on Tuesday and RSI (14) has diverged from price, signalling another test of the uptrend may prove more fruitful for bears than raids of the past. MACD also looks heavy, suggesting it may soon confirm the signal from RSI. If we see a bearish break, traders could sell with a stop above the trendline targeting an initial pullback to 8137. Below that, the 50DMA and 7918 are the next levels of note. Alternatively, if we see another retest and bounce from the uptrend, consider reversing the setup, buying the bounce with a stop below the level for protection. The obvious target would be the record high of 8334 set in late September. Good luck! DS
ASX24:AP1!
by FOREXcom
ASX 200 futures enter the “death zone” for bulls ASX 200 SPI futures and bullish moves above 8000 haven’t mixed well in 2024, resulting in a raft of failed breaks, long topside wicks and topping patterns. It’s akin to a “death zone” for bulls, starving rallies of oxygen before eventually reversing. I’m not outright bearish just because we’re back above the level, especially when momentum indicators are providing mixed signals, but I am interested in what happens near-term as it may dictate what happens longer-term. We’ll either get another topping pattern, or a bullish raid will finally stick. So, I’m waiting. I’m especially interested in how the price fares around 8080, if it gets there. The market has only been able to push through it once and never closed there. Given the track record and current valuations, I’m more inclined to sell rallies but I want the price signal to do so. If we see another failed attempt around 8080, you could sell with a stop either above the level or the high set in August, depending on your eventual target. On the downside, the 50-day moving average looms as one, with 7871, 7794 and 7721 the next after that. If the price were to break and close above 8121 before extending the move, the bearish bias would be negated. Good luck! DS
ASX24:AP1!
by FOREXcom
1
ASX futures snap 9-day streak, further downside loomsYesterday I outlined why I was suspicious of the ASX 200 rally, and today I see it has now retraced. The ASX 200 futures market snapped an 11-day streak after forming a bearish pinbar perfectly at a 78.6% Fibonacci level, below the 8,000 handle. Volumes have been declining during the entire ‘rally’ which shows a lack of bullish enthusiasm, and potentially points to a deeper pullback. A bearish trend has developed on the 1-hour chart, and the support zone ~7917/25 has now been respected as resistance. The bias is to fade into rallies towards that resistance zone in anticipation of a move down to 7860.
ASX24:AP1!Short
by CityIndex
ASX to open lowerYesterday I outlined why I was suspicious of the ASX 200 rally, and today I see it has now retraced. The ASX 200 futures market snapped an 11-day streak after forming a bearish pinbar perfectly at a 78.6% Fibonacci level, below the 8,000 handle. Volumes have been declining during the entire ‘rally’ which shows a lack of bullish enthusiasm, and potentially points to a deeper pullback. A bearish trend has developed on the 1-hour chart, and the support zone ~7917/25 has now been respected as resistance. The bias is to fade into rallies towards that resistance zone in anticipation of a move down to 7860.
ASX24:AP1!Short
by Matt_Simpson
1
ASX 200 mimics Wall Street's 'risk-on' rally into Jackson HoleOverbought indicators are of little use when markets are obsessed with rate cuts ahead of a key fed speech. Jerome Powell will speak at the Jackson hole symposium and Friday, and expectations for a dovish show are high. And that's helped Wall Street indices extend gains and the allowed the ASX 200 to tag along for the ride. But if this turns out to be a classic 'buy the rumour, sell the fact' tale, traders may need to factor in some of the overbought clues on the daily chart.
ASX24:AP1!Short
by CityIndex
ASX 200 futures test their luck below resistanceI see a common connection when looking across Wall Street futures, ASX 200 and the Nikkei. They're all retracing higher after a large drop and grinding their way towards resistance levels. And that could appeal to bearish swing traders. ASX 200 futures (SPI) are within their 8th day higher. And as they have only recouped around 2/3rds of the drop rom the fall the record high (and over a longer timeframe than the drop) I suspect a swing high is due. Note Tuesday's doji, and subsequent price action has traded in the upper wick of that doj. A resistance cluster hovers around 7873 - 7900, and we favour fading into any moves towards it with a stop above 7700. Bears could target just above 7700 for a downside target.
ASX24:AP1!Short
by CityIndex
1
ASX 200 hints at Turnaround TuesdayStock markets took quite the beating on Monday on fears of a US recession, and speculation that the Fed may be forced to cut rates as soon as next week. A stronger-than-expected ISM services report slowed the bleeding before Wall Street indices recouped some of their pre-session losses. Nikkei futures have since risen 10% from Monday's low, which could bode well for the ASX 200. SPI 200 futures saw a false break of the April low and held above the Feb low. A bullish divergence has formed on the 1-hour chart and prices are trying to hold above the weekly S3 pivot. Dips towards 7500 could appeal to countertrend trend for a move up towards 7700.
ASX24:AP1!Long
by CityIndex
1
ASX 200 futures hints at another leg higherThe sharp fall from its record high remains the dominant feature on the daily ASX 200 futures chart. Whilst this is likely to suppress appetite for risk for some time, Tuesday's bullish hammer suggests bears are in need of a break. The false break of the April low has been followed by a higher low and higher high on the 1-hour chart. Prices are now trying to form another higher low, so dips look appealing for bullish setups down to 7555. 7700 is the next upside target near the 38.2% Fibonacci ratio, although there is also a resistance cluster between 7767 to 7794 which also seems reachable. Whether it can extend such a move really depends on appetite for risk elsewhere.
ASX24:AP1!Long
by CityIndex
1
ASX 200 bulls eye 8000The ASX 200 futures contract (SPI 200) snapped a 3-day losing streak overnight, and with Wall Street trying to shed last week's losses and the Nikkei and Hang Seng finding support, we suspect a bounce could be due for the ASX today. The daily chart found support at the 20-day EMA and monthly R1 pivot and closed back above the May high. It is now within 1-2 day's trade form the 8k level. The 1-hour chart shows a liquidity gap between 7950 - 8000, and with bullish momentum behind it we could find that area acts as a magnet to fill the gap towards 8000. Bulls could seek dips back towards the May high for longs up to 8000, although without a fresh catalyst it seems like a tempting area for bulls to book profits.
ASX24:AP1!Long
by CityIndex
2
ASX 200 looks set for further gainsA strong lead from Wall Street on Wednesday ahead of Independence Day could bode well for Asian indices such as the ASX 200. The daily chart shows that prices are coiling which could indicate the volatility is set to increase in the coming days or weeks. Take note that over the past couple of weeks, each dip beneath 7700 has been bought Which shows demand above the June low. The one-hour chart shows a strong rally from the weekly S1 pivot points and the bias is removed up to 50-day average which sits near the weekly pivot point and just beneath the monthly pivot point. Therefore, dips toward 7700 look appealing for bullish swing trades towards the 50 day average.
ASX24:AP1!Long
by CityIndex
2
ASX looks set to retrace from resistanceThe ASX 200 cash market enjoyed its most bullish day in seven on Thursday. But like the SPI 200 futures contract, it met resistance before pausing. The daily chart shows that a double top formed around the June 26 high and trend resistance. And as it's not unusual to see a market retrace against a strong move, and we have an NFP report looming which could suppress volatility, we're looking for prices to retrace lower against yesterday's rally. Bears could target the 20-day EMA between the weekly and monthly pivot point, with a stop above yesterday's high.
ASX24:AP1!Short
by CityIndex
Bearish breaks in ASX 200 SPI futures often don’t stickDips below 7685 in Australian ASX 200 SPI futures have made for good buying in June. Will the latest be any different? Yes, the price action looks terrible having broken out of the pennant in the overnight session, so I’m not rushing the buy the dip. But if we see the move stall during the session, there are grounds for a cheeky long with a stop below the session lows for protection. I expect Chinese stock indices may be influential today given the quiet data calendar. 7685 would be the initial target with the 50-day moving average the next after that. If the trade were to move in your favour, consider lifting your stop to entry level to provide a free shot on upside. Selling the break right now comes across as a low probability setup. But if SPI were to sink back to 7615, that will provide far better setups depending on how the price interacts with the level. DS
ASX24:AP1!
by FOREXcom
1
ASX 200 futures down before a US public holiday?1?There are few things ASX 200 futures traders like more than a US public holiday, often delivering big gains when Wall Street is away. Yet, when we look at futures before the Juneteenth public holiday, SPI sits in negative territory, down 0.24%, giving back some of the solid gains of the previous session when the contract broke back above the 50DMA with ease. One look at commodity prices suggests the ASX 200 materials sector may enjoy strong tailwinds today with iron ore and energy markets rallying strongly overnight. And there’s been no shortage of willing buyers in the Aussie banks recently, casting doubt on whether the pullback overnight will stick. Buying the open targeting a push towards the June high of 7885 is an option for those keen to take on the long trade. A stop below Tuesday’s low of 7736 would offer protection. Should the trade move in your favour, consider lifting your stop to entry level to provide a free hit on upside. DS
ASX24:AP1!
by FOREXcom