XLY Rate of ChangeBalance Breaker, XLY is losing steam quickly. True Fib reveals all...Low 09' to top in 21'
XLY trade ideas
Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund ($XLY) Short$XLY is the ticker symbol for the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund. It is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that invests in companies that are part of the consumer discretionary sector, which includes companies that sell non-essential goods and services such as retail, media, travel, and leisure. Its top holdings are: $AMZN, $TSLA, $HD, $NKE, $MCD, $LOW, $SBUX, $BKNG, $TJX, $TGT.
On Wednesday, 3/15/23 someone bought the 4/21 130P 10,000x at $2.39. The ETF has retraced below all prior support and resistance levels and struggling to make new highs that were seen in the beginning of February. Its current support is 135...which does not look very healthy. It is currently approaching 142.15 resistance level that a rejection will show a continued downward bearish trend channel..... A break below 135 will see a demand zone at around 127.50, but if that doesn't hold, we are looking at <125.
XLY (Tsla and amzn)... looks like a bull flag here...
If this breaks over 148 you should see those 2 stocks take a major leg up
XLY ( Tsla and Amzn)Similar to XLC and XLK , XLY pulled back and retested its breakout area .
Think we bounce this week back up to resistance of that yellow channel
XLY (Amzn and tsla)Very bearish setup here...
Obvious double top here. The close below 148 was a nail in the coffin. Might try and retrace back to 148 before heading lower.
This should easily see tsla back to 180 minimum, Amzn 91 gap close
XLY (Tsla and Amzn)Been awhile since I charted XLY..
Rallied up to resistance last 3 weeks.
Wedge pattern is showing here similar to Amazon chart (See link)... that's why I like to look at a stocks sector before I chart and trade the stock. Stocks that are heavily weighted in a sector tend to move more In sequence with the chart of that sector.
The Daily CCI is up in corrective territory, I think we test 124 before a leg up and a breakout.
Very very bullish over 150. Anything below that I consider a fake out
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Bulk box stores underperform brand namesBulk box stores that rely on volume underperform during periods of contraction
Corrective Rally in XLY Should Fail According to Elliott WaveCycle from 11.15.2022 high is proposed complete as wave (1) at 126. Down from 11.15.2022 high, wave 1 ended at 138.20 and rally in wave 2 ended at 147.32. The ETF then extends lower in wave 3 towards 126.63 and wave 4 rally ended at 129.90. Final leg lower wave 5 ended at 126 which completed wave (1) in higher degree. Wave (2) rally is currently in progress with internal subdivision as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave (1), wave ((a)) ended at 129.80, wave ((b)) ended at 127.68, and wave ((c)) ended at 130.68. This completed wave W. Pullback in wave X ended at 126.83.
Wave Y higher is in progress with internal subdivision as a zigzag. Up from wave X, wave ((a)) ended at 131.21. Expect wave ((b)) pullback to stay above wave X (126.83), and the ETF should extend higher in wave ((c)) higher. Potential target higher is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave W which comes at 131.55 – 134.44. From this area, the ETF should find sellers and resistance to either extend lower or pullback in 3 waves. As far as pivot at 146.50 stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, 11 swing for further downside.
XLY - Impulsive Collapse Into The Abyss 😱🙀We took this one earlier today after waiting for a bounce at the lows this then quickly engulfed the lows.
This is the most bearish of the SPDR charts and the clue that this would be a great trade was the Shakeout Reversal Pattern "SRP" leading to a bearish momentum candle to fall out of the bearish ascending wedge.
This will easily get to the 1:1 @$108 but I think i'll probably hold on and will be looking for the 1:1.618 @ $80 which would be a 54% haircut from the SRP.
Moves like this show how trading this SRP pattern is so powerful and leads to enormous gains, especially if traded with ATM options as I have done today, but even the trade alone is a potential 30% move right here.
Not advice.
XLY Consumer Discretionary poised for a break down?The XLY has been mostly gone no where since May. Break out attempted but didn't go no wheres. We're back at the July 2020 levels.
Could the price action be saying we're headed to a further 20%? That would put is back in April 2020. The red & green lines are clones.
XLY , important for TSLA and Amazon Bumping it's head at the fib. Volume is also drying up here.
Notice how tsla couldn't get over 230 and how Amazon is stuck at 120.
Keep this end mine , with Amazon earnings around the corner and Elon buying twitter
XLY at support (TESLA ,Amazon)Monthy chart here of XLY sector.
Biggest weighted stocks in this sector
Tesla 25%
Amazon 25%
Meaning what ever happens with this sector would have the most impact on those 2 stocks.
Purple trendlines represent monthly channel (Uptrend)
Fib levels are covid lows and ATH
Thursday when the spy drop to 350 , XLY retested that trend support and bounced. Friday we close right above supporting trendline.
We are currently below all MA on daily and weekly chart. On the Monthly chart the closes moving average is the 100ma sitting around mid 120.
The closest support if we breakup trend this week is 132.67 fib support.
Tesla has earnings this week so this will be interesting to see how it plays out..
I will say this, it gets risky swinging shorts on stocks in this sector until we see if XLY will bounce or break 132
XLY/XLPBulls REALLY want to see this ratio turn back up for there to be any chance at a bounce in equities imo. Not looking good heading into tomorrow's inflation report.
$XLY Potential 2-1-2 Bearish Move $XLY's quarter ends with an inside shooter that may lead to a 2-1-2 bearish continuation.
Because of this, I'll be looking to short Consumer Discretionary stocks.
Consumer Discretionary continues to move bearishThere may be small windows of opportunity to continue shorting the sector but the overall direction is bearish as shown by the TA and macro economic analysis. With Fed rate hikes continuing to increase leading to a recession next year, this sector will cycle out for others such as consumer staples and utilities.
AMEX:XLY
XLY/XLPLooking double toppy at previous highs. Hard to have a bull market in equities when staples are outperforming discretionary spending imo.
Bullwhip Effect XLY Consumer Discretionary could be seeing the effects of the bullwhip effect that Michael Burry has been warning about. Big inventory builds means prices are set to crash hard? Will be interesting to see if he is right.
xly/xlpcopying a post i saw to see the relationship between these two tickers. get mad eat dirt, L+ ratio + fortnite dance.
XLY Testing Breakout LevelXLY is testing the recent breakout level (former resistance). A hold here would be viewed in a bullish context as former resistance will have become support. This is a key ETF to watch considering the heavy weights of AMZN and TSLA. - Jamie
Consumer discretionary to continue downtrendWeak real spending and rising inflation to influence profits and keep pressure on the sector
XLY/XLPBearish RSI divergence & closing below pre-c0vid highs. Is the party over for growth stocks or is it still just consolidation?
