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XLRE trade ideas

XLRE - Real Estate is going to underperform.XLRE is the Real Estate ETF. I'm a residential builder and my wife is a realtor, so I have my finger on the pulse of this ETF and XHB in particular. I can tell you for certain it's toppling over the edge in the real world... and the head and shoulders chart pattern here confirms it's doing the same in market-land. Mortgage rates spiraling at a rate not seen in decades....and it's going to result in a very significant slowdown/correction in the housing industry. I am not calling for a crash like '08, mind you, but the rate hikes are going to price a LOT of people out of the market entirely. We are just now beginning to see inventory rise and that's the first "leg" on the way down in the real world. The end result is sellers finally realizing the days of having 20 offers within a day are done, and buyers regaining control. This will result in a significant downward pressure being placed on the entire industry.
AMEX:XLREShort
by digital_precision
2
It's Over: The Housing Bubble Just PoppedAccording to our elliot wave analysis, the US housing bubble has finally come to an end. This will spell out total destruction of most risk assets, so it's a good time to invest cautiously. It won't take investors long to realize what is taking place. They are leveraged 10 to 1 on their real estate bets, so even a 10% move down starts sending margin calls out, and we see a liquidation cascade of epic proportions. They will also start to realize that real estate is a COMMODITY, and that commodities are NOT investments, because they only go down over the long term. Thanks for playing.
AMEX:XLREShort
by bowtrix
Real estate topping? Price to fall to mid-30s to low 40s?While everyone is bullish real estate, the chart says price is likely to turn bearish. As you can see from the chart, we just retested and rejected a long term bullish trendline, and now with that rejection, it sets up the chance for price to fall much lower from here. The first supports are in the low 40s, and if we end up breaking that, we'll likely fall to the 50% retracement region in the mid to upper 30s. Let's see what happens over the coming weeks/months.
AMEX:XLREShort
by benjihyam
$XLRE - Double top forming?There is a big debate in what is going on in real estate. It is hard for me to imagine a scenario in which this has not peaked. However, I do not believe we will see higher rates until 2023 and that means we could continue to see it moving higher. The issue comes back to the supply and demand. Demand is still ridiculously strong. Big institutions have purchased a ton of homes over the last 12-18 months thanks to the Federal Reserve and their easy money policies. Zillow dumping thousands of homes back onto the market is the first sign of what is to come if inflation is not transitory and the federal reserve has to start increasing rates. This is entirely caused by the government but I am sure they will shift blame onto something else. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is for informative purposes only.
AMEX:XLRE
by UnknownUnicorn16739272
Classic Cup & Handle patternWe are seeing a cup & head pattern on this real estate ETF. How to enter a position: First entry: 20% of full amount, when it breaks the high of the handle of the cup. Second entry: 80% is the cross above the high of the cup, confirming the bullish pattern. Risk-reward setup: Profit-exit: Full target is $53 approximately. 10sma has been working well with a trailing stop for a partial sell. Loss-exit: the target is denied, if we close below the november 1st low; at which point I would exit 100%. Good luck, and have a great weekend everyone!
AMEX:XLRELong
by dorfmanmaster
RE - Real Estate Double Top Before FOMCIdea for Real Estate: - Real Estate testing a double top after some exhaustion Sept-Oct. - MBB's rolling over, rejected at -1 Std Dev: - Because every other market component is already at +2/-2 Std Dev, and Real Estate is relatively less volatile than say S&P 500, I think the +1/-1 Std Dev is a good signal. - We will have more confirmation next week depending on Fed's decision to taper MBS purchases. I think the Fed will stick to their signaled schedule in hopes of avoiding any sort of a "tantrum". - Historically, RE and MBS's lead declines in equities. - We have seen both commodity prices, Building Permits and pending Home Sales come down, so a decline is natural: - Overseas property market declining is likely to have headwinds as well: GLHF - DPT
AMEX:XLREShort
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
4
MACRO - Housing Double BottomModel Forecast for the Housing & Real Estate Market: Synopsis: Underlying Conditions: Federal Deficit: Debt needs to be paid. Household Debt Payments have bottomed. Household Debt Service Payments as a Percentage of Disposable Personal Income (TDSP): Business Inventories will fall: Housing Starts are falling, and can fall much lower before recovery: Housing Sales have very little business rising and will certainly fall: Supply: The price of lumber is at a top and will certainly fall by EOY: The supply of labor will increase - Employment has downside before recovery: Capacity Utilization has some downside: Demand: As real estate investors who bought the bottom in 2020, who have have enjoyed several 100% unrealized gains decide the real estate bull market is over, they will clean up house and leave retail holding the bag on the now worthless assets. Of course, at this time, banks will be accumulating them at the bottom to prepare for the next bull market! Targets for REIT Campaign: EQR - High-Value Residential: BDN - Suburban Offices - WFH culture is here to stay, and the demand for office-space will greatly decrease: RYN - Timberland Real Estate & Lumber - Double exposure to both lumber and Real Estate: SLG - Manhattan Commercial - I expect financial disruption as well, and the high value real estate there will crumble like a house of cards: Watching: Warehousing - Due to pandemic shipping backlog, warehousing real estate should see a boom, but as 3D printing & AV shipping improve, they will become fantastic short targets, as they become obsolete! GLHF - DPT
AMEX:XLREShort
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
10