XLK trade ideas
30 minutes view for XLKbearish setup.
Disclaimer, this is only for entertainment and education purposes and doesn't serve by any means as a buy or sell recommendation.
Personally I hold both long term long positions and occasionally short term short position, for disclosure purpose.
XLK pitchforks
Disclaimer, this is only for entertainment and education purposes and doesn't serve by any means as a buy or sell recommendation.
money moving from TECH to healthcare Retail Airlines restaurantsmoney $$ is moving from TECH to healthcare Retail Airlines restaurants
stay away from Boeing company needs a rebirth
Wait till mid / end of october for tech entry
XLK broke out of upward channelLook for XLK to retest what was once the support line at $114 . First target is $104 (the high from February) and the 2nd target is $100. The bears are in control, so look at this as a shift from a bull market to a bear market going into the end of the year. Long term target is low 90's to high 80's.
XLK direction Recent tech sell off from recent parabolic move.
Monthly charts shows key levels and like area price will gravitate to. Can play the bounce off these levels or continuation.
XLK Bullish Channel Holds for Tech The channel provided good support, actual first test of the bottom end of the channel since the low in March. Tech took a brutal beating last week with a disgusting weekly candle. However, the recovery this week has been extremely strong. Until the channel breaks, there should be some expectation of a bullish move to the upside. Only if the channel breaks would there be a break from the overall bull trend and a possible larger correction to the downside. If that takes place, then I expect at least the gap to be filled at 110 (red outline box) or even more of a correction to test the February 20 highs.
On the hourly, a clear bullish RSI divergence played out, making the price action look somewhat like a wedge breakout. But then resistance was found today at a parallel level to the recent lower lows, so now lower highs which means short term bearish. If a higher high can be set and a S/R flip accomplished, see below, then it would be a good spot for a call play to retest just short of the highs.
Game plan is seen in the hourly chart below.
XLK (+11.82%) & XLU (-1.45%) [Hold) for Sept 1, 2020Holding both XLK and XLU from my original entries given on my channel--linked below.
Technology is a good place to be long right nowIt is worth advising over the past 6months Technology has been the second best sector following Consumer Cyclical (+13.97%).
Over the 3month TF Tech has been in 4th place (+26.41%) now & likewise on the 1month TF 4th place (+6.3%).
However on the 1week TF technology has been the worst performer (-0.94%) of all *ironically while financials and industrial are in the top 2 (very bullish for the indices as a whole).
GoNoGo Charts: Can Technology continue to dominate?The technology sector has outperformed on a relative basis in 2020. Tech stocks in general were hit less hard by the COVID-19 pandemic and have rallied quicker and further than the rest of the market since the lows in March.
Right now, the five largest stocks by market cap in the S&P 500 are Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Google. And between them, they make up around 20% of the index.
They have been the drivers of the current post crash move. So what happens if technology starts to struggle? Is it time to protect against downside risk?
The above chart is the daily GoNoGo chart of the Technology sector Spyder, XLK. While it is still in a “Go” trend, there are some signs of troubled water ahead.
Price has fallen below an upward sloping trend line, and could likely now find it to be resistance. In doing so, it looks to have made a lower swing low.
If we look at the GoNoGo Oscillator in the lower panel, we see strong *bearish divergence. While price has continued to make higher highs, the oscillator has not confirmed, instead making successive lower highs.
We are at an inflection point, with the GoNoGo Oscillator resting at zero. We would need to see this hold as support and then bounce off zero if the “Go” trend is to persist. If the oscillator fails at zero, breaking into negative territory, we expect price to correct further, potentially leading to a change in the GoNoGo Trend above.
Technology Sector Remain CautiousWeekly and Monthly remain bullish and uptrend.
-- Nasdaq --
+ Daily chart - Weak hammer candle bouncing from trendline and 10400 support zone.
+ Sign of Classical Bullish Divergence seen on H4
- FiFT still -ve
- ATOM crossing below mid line.
-- XLK (US Tech sectors) --
Uptrend still intact but index close below EMA20 for the first time since 3rd April.
ATOM crossing below midline and FiFT remain -ve on daily chart..
Summary
Remain cautious with technology sector. Hit & Run or take partial profit when hit certain target is probably a good strategy ..
However, it will be an opportunity to buy low if Nasdaq and XLK able to bounce from key support zone / trendline.
XLK EXTREME TOP. IS THE BUBBLE ABOUT TO BURST?This chart shows the ratio between XLK (Technology) and XLF (Financials).
When the chart is going up the the indicator is saying go long technology.
Sideways then equal weighting.
Chart going down then overweight XLF, lighten up on XLK.
It also shows that the current situation is that XLK is at a top. In fact it is significantly above the DOT COM bubble of 2000.
Will XLK reverse from here and XLF start to pick up?
Support = Buy , Resistance = Sell, is it correct ?I was too naive to think that after reviewing 10 to 20 charts and seeing a pattern where price bounce off from support and retrace from resistance, I formed a bias view to buy at support and sell at resistance.
Of course, over the long haul, my results proved that I was wrong. On certain occasions, I would like to think I probably enjoyed a stroke of luck to get them right by following this train of thoughts.
I have often said the Market is way too smart to be predicted and it is a futile exercise (at least for me). From this XLK chart, we can see that it has just break out of the resistance level at 102.74 and the last bullish candle signals it would continue to trend higher.
I use Amazon chart as an example to illustrate. If one thinks that upon resistance, the price MUST falls, then they would have missed another 27% returns.
!CRB long entry; !XLK Short entry: 13:04:22 (UTC) Wed Jul 8, 202!CRB long entry; !XLK Short entry: 13:04:22 (UTC) Wed Jul 8, 202
