XLK trade ideas
XLK - a bearish countI posted a chart on this etf back in July suggesting that a top could be approaching and got lucky with that count. Does this count have any merits? Who knows. But as ever it could be a possibility and with the price action of the last few days anything is possible.
Short XLK + Fib RetracementFloodgates are open.
The technology was our last hope for a bull market.
I think this means ... goodbye.
SPX DJI XLKThe large spike down shadow in the middle of this chart looks like a B wave of sorts, meaning the whole move since 2009 is corrective only, ie. Only a cyclical bull in a secular bear. Just sayin…
If Technology Stocks Are Rolling Over... Market is in TroubleThe technology stocks have been the long time leader of this bull market.
As the chart of XLK, the S+P Technology SPDR shows,technology stocks,
like the bellwether FANG stock, including Apple
have clearly rolled over on the charts, and are bearish in trend.
Today the technology ETF is down yet another 2 %
If the market's leading aggressive group, is in trouble,
A simple question...
Where is the leadership going to be found,
to propel this market back to all time highs ..?
Thoughts and prayer's to those suffering from the destruction of the California wildfires,
as well as to the California bar room massacre victims, and their families.
THE_UNWIND
11/12/18 945 AM
NEW YORK
Downtrend commence"baby there's no time to be sorry, will you short the life of this party" Looks like the 9 year party is in its last hours, and tech sector is drunk off valuations. That volume is major behind this drop this time around $TECS $TECL $QQQ $SPY
XLK (Short)Whats up Traders
Tech section is taking a pounding -
I expect that the midterm elections are going to be horrible for the tech sector - Twitter, Facebook, Google, with lots and lots of threats at regulation on those companies.
Expect a big opportunity to score here with some november puts on this one.
Good Luck, DYOR
XLK ShortWhats up Traders
I posted on this one previously - if the day closes correctly, we will have broke support below a rising wedge / uptrend.
I love this ETF as a short or options put. Leading into the Elections - the tech sector going to come under heavy fire. . . Expect Threasts, Talks, Balks at serious regulation.
And that's my two satoshi's.
XLK Bounced off Short Term SupportXLK is in a very bullish momentum stage intermediate and long term. Short Term was whipped out this week but we managed to recapture it's low. This might be a continuation buy point. I don't like going negative for this quarter all in the first week of OCT. i can't call this a buy point.
$XLK bullish credit spread for this #FridayHigh risk bullish credit spread on XLK . Solid gap down in tech this morning, but not showing signs of continuation bearish. This is one of the set-it and forget-it spreads as we will let it go all the way till exp.
Entry 74.33
Break even 74.72
Max profit 75
0.78:1 risk/reward
More info at wingtrades.com
XLK Elliott Wave Analysis Suggesting More UpsideHello Traders,
In this Elliott Wave analysis, we will have a look at the Technology ETF.
The ETF ended the cycle from 06/28/18 low in red wave 1 at the peak of 07/25/18 (74.26). The internals of red wave 1 unfolded as a 5 wave Elliott Wave impulsive structure. Where black wave ((i)) ended at 06/29/18 peak (70.08), black wave ((ii)) pullback at 07/02/18 (68.73). Followed by an extended black wave ((iii)), where the internals also unfolded in a 5 waves structure. Black wave ((iii)) ended at 07/13/2018 peak (72.72) and black wave ((iv)) pullback at 07/16/2018 (71.68) followed by black wave ((v)) of red wave 1 which ended at 07/25/18 peak (74.24).
Below from that peak, the correction in red wave 2 ended at 07/30/18 low (70.30). The internals of red wave 2 unfolded as Elliott Wave Flat structure where it ended black wave ((a)) at 07/26/18 low (72.68), black wave ((b)) pullback at 07/26/18 peak (73.35) and black wave ((c)) of red wave 2 at 07/30/18 low (70.30). Up from there, it ended the cycle from 07/30/18 low at the peak of 08/09/18 (73.91) in black wave ((i)). Below from there, it is currently in the progress of correcting the cycle from 07/30/18 low in 3-7 or 11 swings before moving higher again.
Near-term focus will be on the 100%-123.60% equal legs extreme area of 72.45-72.15 from 08/09/18 peak where we expect a reaction higher for new highs or at least a 3 wave’s bounce. We don’t like selling it and prefer more upside as long as the pivot at 68.28 low in our distribution system stays intact.
XLK - TechnologySome Iv hiding out in the Tech sector due to the middle of the earnings season.
Sold -1 Sep21 70/73 strangle for $2.43 cr.
Risk: 2x cr received to upside, possibly continue to roll put to the downside.
Profit: 50% cr received or manual close on some quick profits (IV collapse due to earnings?)
XLK - topping?Wow. It's having a really great run.....but...... is it possible that it is reaching an end of a 5th wave? This count would suggest so and it does look like a pretty clear 5 wave impulse since the April low. Whether it will just be another correction or a major top I have no idea but I will expect some decent downside sooner rather than later.
RSI14 is showing a bearish divergenceBearish divergence, not much to say :)
Could be time to enter a short today or in the coming days.
I did enter a put 21 sept strike 73 at price 1.87$
OPENING: XLK AUG/SEP 72/76 BEAR PUT DIAGONALBOT +1 DIAGONAL XLK 100 21 SEP 18/17 AUG 18 76/72 PUT @2.75
Paid 2.75 (debt is 69% of the width )
Breakeven @ expiry $73.58
-39 delta, .96 theta
Max Loss : $275
Max Profit : $126
Notes:
Opened a bearish trade here fade the recent rally and add some negative deltas to balance the portfolio.
Following another great trade idea from NaughtyPines! (link below)
Rationale:
Any number of reasons a summer 'tech-wreck' could evolve: trade war, AAPL cutting mobile parts orders from suppliers, weakening Chinese economy etc ...
The top holdings are; AAPL, MSFT, FB, GOOG, V, INTC, T, VZ, CSCO (not sure how V is a 'tech' name?)
Some fundamentals on XLK : The forward PE is near 19, and P/B ratio over 5. There's almost no yield, so it's all about the estimated earnings growth , which if revised down should get punished.
Based on a _DCF valuation model: XLK fair value around 75 by year end... based on 2019 earnings estimates and assuming 13.6% earnings growth .
For the same deltas you could short 40 shares of XLK and borrow $2850 worth of stock, but would be charged the overnight borrowing rates as well.
OPENING: XLK AUG/SEPT 72/76 DOWNWARD PUT DIAGONAL.... for a 2.74/contract debit.
Metrics:
Max Loss on Setup: $274/contract
Max Profit on Setup: $126/contract
Break Even: 73.26
Debit Paid/Spread Width Ratio: 2.74/4 or 68.5%
Theta: 1.14
Delta: -39.63
Notes: Selling semicons on strength. Will start to look to take profit at 50% of max.
