XLF trade ideas
XLF - Inside Bar formation w/ potential breakoutThe market has been consolidating after a strong up move. An inside bar pattern has formed during this pause and presents a good opportunity to get in on the next leg up. A good strategy would be to enter on an upside break of the inside bar with a stop loss just below the bottom of the inside bar pattern. It creates a very attractive risk/reward setup.
Short bullish pop then dropIn my opinion, looks like the weakness of earnings but temporary bullishness of SM will provide short term pop for financials to 28.2X then drop to lower support for next consolation leg down.
Financial Sector has found support at the 200-dayXLF has good support at 26.80, which coincides with the 200-day EMA. It will probably trade higher to 28 and then returns to 29.
XLF double channel line bounceXLF at bottom of channel looking to retest highst at 30. Long at 27.05
OPENING: XLF June/Sept 24/27/28/31 Double Net Credit Diagonal... for a .58/contract credit.
Basically, this is a calendarized iron condor or iron fly, where you roll just the short strangle/short straddle body of the setup for cost basis reduction, while keeping the long strangle aspect in place for purposes of defining the risk ... . Take profit is somewhat subjective, but I start to look to bail on the trade at >20% of the width of the wings.
With short straddle "bodies," I tend to roll when the short straddle body has reached 25% max; with short strangle bodies, 50%. This is a fairly tight short strangle, so will treat it as a short straddle for purposes of rolling.
Financial forming bear flagFor every positive @allstarcharts is putting out, I can put out a negative. he does have breadth on his side though.
XLF shortRemaining short. XLF looks like it is heading lower still. Break of trend and 200DMA support suggests $25 on a close below $27. FED continuing to raise rates with no meaningful inflation reinforces US curve flattening, and damping loan demand, negative for banks.
XLF gets a boost Financials primed for a bounce ... guessing gap fill and trend line test above Channel or chop suey
Bearish pattern on the financialsYou can see here that financials have put in a series of lower low's. Often in such cases, we see retracement back into the original range. If you are looking for a short opportunity entering at the 50% level with a downside target at the 1.6 extension level would offer a reasonable risk/reward ratio. With the midterms coming up, I would expect a low prior to election day.
xlf very bearish patternXLF lots more T-Bills auctioned this week. This is the biggest week even for bills. Whole lot of downside risk that financials close week under Feb. lows.
XLF little more downI do see market pop soon or at least base out. Financials are looking horrible. If you are short here are some areas to take profits.
Double Top Forming on XLF / FinancialsXLF is approaching massive resistance at $30, the peak prior to the Great Recession. It appears to be forming a double top, which if cleared will open the door for a huge rally. Conversely, a failure would open the door to a large correction. Very short term (next week or so), I think we see buyers lift prices (I'm long 3/29 $29's), but I believe we ultimately fail at $30, a level I'll short against. Given broader weakness, European banking issues (DB is crashing), overly bullish sentiment, and the aforementioned technical picture, it seems to be a good setup.
Financials about to complete 61.8 correction The Financials are looking strong today as we get closer to FOMC minutes.
XLF is about to complete a 61.8 Fib correction to the bearish move that we had two weeks ago when XLF touched 2008's levels.
This can be the end of XLF's bullish pullback... if it's a pullback :)
XLF will definitely be influenced by today's minutes.
Check it out
monitoring bearish Head & Shoulders set upXLF needs to get over $29.50 to invalidate the bearish head and shoulders pattern present. Focusing on the right shoulder Red Box . Head and shoulders pattern is not confirmed nor completed yet. Disclosure i'm short $bac Bank of America
XLF Bearish CypherXLF has completed a bearish cypher and showing really nice divergence. *Purchased March $29 puts for .39*
