SDPY Weekly Chart (2-4 months projection)SDPY Weekly Chart (2-4 months projection) divergence, time to sell? yes for me
Just my idea, thought and wishes, nos financial advice
SPYD trade ideas
dumping of dividendsnow looks like a time folks are building cash reserves, and dividends are heavy and looking like a top within this cycle. It ties in together nicely w/ folks dumping bonds and dividends. Risk off? I would like to buy up these in about 18 months-2 years for the long haul As I see both $spyd and $tlt becoming cheaper.
technical analysis: I see a bearish cypher pattern, which needs to return back down to the 4th Eliott Wave, which should be near the bottom of the trend line near the end of 2024-start of 2025..See my $tlt charts
a better chart for anyone upset it was clear what I meant. 1st chart was a a bit vague for some people so i wanted to help clear up any miss understandings and make things much more clear. Trying to be helpful can come with its own learning curve. I hope this chart helps better explain the verbage its attached to with the one prior. Happy to help .
Fill the $37.85 Gap before the $36.85 It seems likely we fill the gap above Before the one below. Once we get Both of these gaps filled, we will then have a BIG decision ahead of us.
Most likely more Drama to come sooner than later but i could be wrong. Either way even if we claim 3800 back on the big boy and turn it into Temporary support again. I still see a bigger drop coming at some point to 3200-3400 ranges. I think that's the Real support and first line of true defense in the cascade DOWN.
To me this is just a relief rally underway and even if it turns into a BIG one it's still more DOWN to come.
SADLY, i see world economics /macro etc. getting MUCH worse over the next 6 to 18 months MINIMUM.
5/18/22 SPYDSPDR Series Trust High Dividend ETF ( AMEX:SPYD )
Sector: Miscellaneous (Investment Trusts/Mutual Funds)
Market Capitalization: $ --
Current Price: $43.04
Breakout price: $43.80
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $43.40-$42.40
Price Target: $44.20-$44.40 (1st), $46.20-$46.90 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 69-70d (1st), 142-150d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $SPYD 6/17/22 42c, $SPYD 9/16/22 42c
Trade price as of publish date: $2.50/contract, $2.95/contract
Analysis-downtrendOn this chart we have an intersection between resistance and support. Additionally, we have a squeeze after an uptrend, which means sellers are pushing buyers away. We will have a downtrend.thanks.
SPYD Candlestick backtest 1HLooks like on the long side, Hammers are the best entry and ironically a bullish Harami is the best exit. On the Short side of things it looks like DarkClouds are the best entry and doji up is the best exit.
My reason for looking into SPYD is to improve my overall dividend portfolio.
$SPYD - loaded and readyChart looks amazing! There must be something else that will affect this...like "the sky will soon fall" mentality?
SPYD on the Move UpBut signal trigger from 9SMA sloping up, candle above the 9, MACD crossover and rising RSI. Looking for a 0.40-0.55 or until the buy signals are no longer valid.
Temporary Short PlayThird day printing a bearish candle and now fully under the 9SMA with a negative MACD. Looking to short this for a couple days until the indicators turn around.
$SPYD InvestmentThis thing has had so much positive volume being pumped into it - it is a no brainer of a trade. Personally though I will not be trading this but investing long, long term and am building a massive stake into this. I'm currently up 4% on 3 round lots and am now much more confident building my position. I will plan on holding this for years and will reinvest the dividends back into just purchasing more shares.
Can't say how much I love this ETF.
The moving averages are sooo bullish
The volume is sooo bullish
The weekly MACD soo bullish
The daily is not - so it may drop a bit, and if it does I will just load up some more.
I am sooo bullish!
SPY vs. SPYD - Tectonic Plates Of The Market Are ShiftingS&P 500 ETF VS. High Dividend Yield ETF
S&P 500 appears to be outperforming from a Year-To-Date perspective
- I propose this is because of the rising interest rate environment and the psychological affect on how Yield for different vehicles is viewed.
What comes around goes around. Interest rate fears were the main source of blame for the increase in volatility back in February.
The 10 Year Treasury Yield has approached about 2.95%. The number that gets a lot of attention is 3.00% but I believe the number that everyone really starts to get nervous about is when the Yield approached about 2.8%. This is where interest rate fears start to resurface and we start to see some sell side activity.
I believe we could reach the 3.00% threshold hit and surpassed as early as next week. It's been a considerable amount of time since we've seen rates that high.
Higher rates could impact pretty much everything in the economy. But one of the things on the surface that people don't really think about is how it affects high dividend yielding stocks.
High market cap / High dividend paying stocks have been experiencing some pretty heavy sell side activity (as we can see in the charts).
*** Why? ***
Well, the idea is somewhat simple. Why would someone go out and purchase an underlying that's yielding 4% when you can now take your capital and put it in a T-Bill, a Note, or some type of Treasury product that's going to yield next to 3.00% without any uncertainty or market volatility .
- The importance of this also comes from the idea that dividend paying aristocrats are supposed to have a lower beta/less risk/less volatility . The Irony is that they're actually MORE RISKY in this rising rates environment and will continue to be.
Yield Curve is beginning to flatten out a bit here. On average, we enter a recession 7-10 months after the curve inverts. Which means the "Top" comes 20% before. Naturally seeking to exit 20% higher vs. waiting for the official announcement of a recession, and looking at the most recent historical inversion:
Date Fed Funds 3-Mo 2-Yr 7-Yr 10-Yr
Dec. 22, 2005 4.25 3.98 4.40 4.39 4.44
Dec. 30, 2005 4.25 4.09 4.41 4.36 4.39
Jan. 31, 2006 4.50 4.47 4.54 4.49 4.53
Jul. 17, 2006 5.25 5.11 5.12 5.04 5.07
On July 17, 2006, the inversion worsened again when the 10-year note yielded 5.07 percent, less than the three-month bill at 5.11 percent. This showed that investors thought the Fed was headed in the wrong direction.
*** READ ANY ARTICLE FROM 2006, AND RECOGNIZE THAT THEY WERE ALL SAYING THE SAME THING THEY'RE SAYING TODAY IN 2018: "Compared to historical averages, the curve inversion we are experiencing is quite benign. Therefore, there need not be profound concerns that an economic recession will automatically derive from this phenomenon." ***
Recent Inversions in the Treasury Yield Curve:
First Inversion / # Months / Average Inversion / Maximum Inversion
Aug-78 ` 21 -71 -202
Sep-80 13 -78 -142
Jan-82 4 -26 -42
Jun-82 1 -23 -23
Dec-88 6 -19 -40
Aug-89 2 -16 -17
Jun-98 1 -3 -3
Feb-00 10 -30 -48
Average 7 -33 -65
