Continuation On Tops Is In. Still short SPXL long SOXSOk guys all waiting on NVDA out that short
Lets see how far the head fake rally goes.
SPY trade ideas
Expired SPY Weekly outlook. 3rd WK NOV 2024Expired SPY Weekly outlook. 3rd WK NOV 2024
> BULLISH 📈 HIT
Prior Week Closed Price: 585.75
This Week Target Price: 587
Strike Price: 590.30 on NOV 19, 2024
Upper Range: 600
Lower Range: 574
SPY Long IdeaWe sold off more than I expected today, but we're finally coming back into the $585 area which I have been waiting for since the post election rally. Looks like a great spot to pick up some longs with solid risk/reward. If it doesn't hold, could turn into a good short idea on the retest. For now I full expect a bounce here into the early parts of next week.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-20 : Flat-Down PatternToday's Flat Down Pattern suggests the SPY & QQQ will trail downward a bit within the current #2 sideways flagging pattern. I believe this setup is indicative of a broader breakdown (Anomaly Event) playing out headed into Thanksgiving and into the end of the year.
Gold and Silver are also moving in an Inverted Excess Phase Peak pattern - struggling near a Phase #3 (sideways consolidation) range. This move will resolve to the upside if my research is correct, yet we could also see Gold and Silver move into a very large Phase #2 type of EPP phase (Flagging downward). This could setup a very large upward price rally in Gold and Silver over the next 60+ days.
BTCUSD is struggling to break to new highs. Although I see a confirmed bullish trend because of a recent new Higher High, I also see BTCUSD struggling to continue to make new highs right now.
Because of this, I see some potential for a breakdown if BTCUSD is unable to rally to new highs within the next 5 to 6+ hours.
Remember, price must always attempt to make new highs or new lows. Failure to make a new high means price must then attempt to make a new low. Failure to make a new low means price must then attempt to make a new high.
These are the RULES OF MARKET PRICE ACTIVITY. Once you learn to use/follow them, trading becomes a bit easier to understand.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Morning Overview: Capped Down and RecoveredNot too many short setups but, the ones I identified should move quickly is the major indices show any weakness. I would be carefully trading around geo political issues and make sure that at least some of your positions are hedged.
Have we really recovered?I remain unconvinced that the end isn't here. I do not think they will let the market continue to move up because *insert politics*. I know drawing channels can be arbitrary, but this particular channel shows me that we have no recovered and that we are instead just loading up the submarine for an even deeper dive. Just my two cents.
$SPY November 20, 2024AMEX:SPY November 20, 2024
15 Minutes.
AMEX:SPY had a gap down.
But did not break the recent low of 583.86 which I have taken as the starting point for current move.
It took support at 200 averages in 60 minutes and started to move up.
Noe for the move 583.86 to 589.49 to the fall 584.02 the first target is 592-593 levels as in box.
In 15 minutes, we have 9,21,50 and 100 averages consolidated.
So, for the rise 584.02 to 591.06 holding 586-587 levels, we target for 592-593 levels.
592-593 is important because it is also 61.8% retracement for the fall 599 to 584 levels.
It is also 20 averages in 15 minutes.
Hence, I expect a consolidation to happen between 591-593 levels today for a move tomorrow or Friday.
SPY's Recovery: Amid Trendline Break for Nov. 20, 2024SPY is displaying a solid recovery after a steep downtrend, breaking key trendlines and reclaiming critical levels. As it inches toward overhead resistance, SPY offers prime setups for scalping and swing trades. Here’s a structured trading plan to navigate its next moves.
Market Structure Overview
* Trendline Breakout: SPY has broken a descending trendline, indicating a potential shift in sentiment toward bullishness.
* Volume Analysis: Rising volume accompanies the breakout, signaling buyer interest at current levels.
* Current Price Action: Trading near $591.40, SPY is consolidating just below a significant resistance zone.
Liquidity Zones
* Demand Zone (Support): $578.00 - $581.00. Buyers have shown strong interest in this area during pullbacks.
* Supply Zone (Resistance): $593.00 - $595.00. Sellers may emerge here as it aligns with previous rejection levels.
Order Blocks
* Bullish Order Block: $578.00 - $580.00. Watch for buying interest if SPY retraces to this zone.
* Bearish Order Block: $593.00 - $595.00. This area could serve as a profit-taking zone or short-term resistance.
Key Levels
* Support Levels: $578.00, $581.00, $583.95.
* Resistance Levels: $593.00, $595.00, $600.97.
Technical Indicators
* 9 EMA & 21 EMA (Hourly): SPY is trading above these levels, confirming short-term bullish momentum.
* MACD (Hourly): Bullish crossover with increasing histogram bars, supporting further upward movement.
* RSI (Hourly): Near 65, suggesting room for additional upside but nearing overbought territory.
Scalping Plan
* Entry: Look for pullbacks to $589.00 - $590.00 for a quick scalp with confirmation from bullish candles.
* Exit: First target at $592.50, with an extended target at $594.00.
* Stop-Loss: Place a tight stop at $588.00 to minimize risk.
* Game Plan: Use high-volume breakouts or retests of minor supports as entry signals. Avoid overtrading near resistance levels.
Swing Trading Plan
* Entry: Accumulate near $578.00 - $581.00 for a medium-term swing trade.
* Exit: First target at $595.00, with extended targets at $600.00.
* Stop-Loss: Set below $576.00 to protect against further downside.
* Game Plan: Monitor for consolidation above $583.95 and use pullbacks for additional entries if momentum persists.
Projection
SPY is positioned to test $593.00 in the near term, with a breakout opening the door to $595.00 and eventually $600.00. Failure to hold $589.00 could see a retest of $581.00, offering a secondary entry point for longs.
My Thoughts
SPY’s breakout signals a bullish shift, making it an ideal candidate for both scalpers and swing traders. Scalping opportunities lie between $589.00 and $593.00, while swing traders can capitalize on pullbacks to the $581.00 demand zone. Stay disciplined, and let the price action guide your trades.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own research and consult with a financial professional before trading.
Bitcoin Breaks To New Highs - $100.5K Is The Likely TargetI created this short video to help traders understand how Fibonacci Price Theory works using BTCUSD.
This move suggests that BTCUSD will attempt to rally above $95k and target $100.5k in the next trending phase.
BTCUSD broke away from the Excess Phase peak Flagging formation (#2) very clearly today.
At this point, there is very little downside price risk unless price breaks below $86.8k.
I also review Gold/Silver and the SPY/QQQ to help traders prepare for the BIG SHIFT into my proposed Anomaly Event.
Here we go..
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY WILL KEEP GROWING|LONG|
✅SPY is already making a
Bullish rebound from the
Horizontal support level
Of 586$ while trading in
An uptrend so we are bullish
Biased and we will be
Expecting a further move up
LONG🚀
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
SPY: Charting the Path - Technical Analysis for Nov. 19, 2024Technical Analysis Overview: SPY (S&P 500 ETF) has been oscillating between critical support and resistance levels, with a potential breakout or breakdown brewing. Traders should prepare for significant moves as the price consolidates, providing scalping and swing trading opportunities.
Price Action Insights:
1. Trendline Analysis:
* A visible downtrend channel is guiding the price lower. However, recent consolidation around $587-$588 hints at a potential reversal or continuation.
2. Key Levels:
* Resistance: $591.50 — Breaking above this could trigger a bullish move toward $601.
* Support: $583.80 — A drop below this may lead to further downside toward $579-$578.
3. Supply and Demand Zones:
* Demand Zone: $578-$583 — Strong buying interest is likely around this area.
* Supply Zone: $590-$593 — Sellers are expected to defend this range aggressively.
4. Order Blocks:
* Watch for price reactions in the $583-$588 consolidation zone, as it could define the direction for the next move.
Indicator Analysis:
1. EMA Strategy:
* 9 EMA and 21 EMA: A bearish alignment remains, but the flattening EMAs indicate a potential pause in selling pressure.
2. MACD:
* The MACD line is attempting to cross above the signal line, signaling a potential bullish divergence.
Game Plan for Scalping:
1. Entry Points:
* Long: Above $588, targeting $591-$593.
* Short: Below $583, targeting $580-$578.
2. Exit Points:
* Focus on tight take-profit levels to secure gains within the defined ranges.
Game Plan for Swing Trading:
1. Bullish Scenario:
* Entry: Above $591.50 with confirmation of strength.
* Target 1: $601; Target 2: $605.
* Stop Loss: Below $587.
2. Bearish Scenario:
* Entry: Below $583 with strong selling momentum.
* Target 1: $578; Target 2: $573.
* Stop Loss: Above $588.
Thoughts and Suggestions: SPY is consolidating near crucial levels. Scalpers can trade within the defined range, while swing traders should wait for a confirmed breakout or breakdown before entering positions. Monitor volume and macroeconomic catalysts to refine your strategy.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before trading.
SPY puts going to average into spy put today and tmr ($577 12/6) looking to profit off another not as good NVDA report and the same new month selloff we have had the last 4 months
Tops In Part 2 Short SPXL 181.50 NVDA 148.62 long SOXS 18.96This video will explain why we go lower and it wont be that simple
dropping they will test highs at some point, at the end day we go lower in time
$SPY November 19, 2024AMEX:SPY November 19, 2024
15 Minutes
for the rise 574 to 600 it retraced back 61.8% to 584 levels.
For the fall 595 to 583 it retrace 61.8% levels to 589.5 yesterday.
The range give earlier buy above 583 for 589 590 is done.
For the last rise 583.86 to 589.48 AMEX:SPY retraced 50% to 587 levels.
So, holding 586 we will have a target 589-592 levels now.
In 15 minutes 9,21,50 all is consolidated so I expect a move Upwards to 590 levels.
Also 588.5 is 200 averages in 5 minutes.
SPY Long From Support! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
SPY is trading in a strong
Uptrend an the index is
Already making a bullish
Rebound from the local
Horizontal support below
At 584$ which reinforces
Our bullish bias and makes
Us expect a further move up
Buy!
Like, comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Video for 11-18: No INTERNET IssueMorning guys.
Something odd happened today after I created a great 45-minute morning video.
TradingView reported an Internet Issue even though my internet was working perfectly???
So, I DOWNLOADED the video so I have a record of it and posted it up elsewhere.
I don't know what to say - except check my profile on TradingView.
I was not going to try to replicate my 45 minute recording after experiencing this issue.
Get Some.
S&P Weekly Recap: Rally Falters Amid Lack of ConvictionLast week’s market action delivered a reversal in sentiment, highlighting the fragility of the rally that had persisted since the so-called "Trump rally." The week began slowly, with the market testing buyers’ conviction to push prices higher. After confirming a lack of such conviction, sellers stepped in, driving prices sharply lower. As suggested in my previous recap, 585 (VAH) provided temporary support, and the week closed near this critical level.
Interestingly, most major sectors participated in the downward move, aligning with the broader market trend. However, XLF (Financials) stood out as the exception, managing to post gains despite the sell-off. This divergence suggests that there is still buying interest, with money continuing to flow selectively into the market.
The immediate objective for the bulls is to hold 585 and attempt to fill Friday’s gap. Failure to do so, with the price returning to the 568-585 range , would indicate that the rally is nearing exhaustion. While this would not immediately signal a transition into a bear market, it would mark a notable shift in sentiment. The 568 level remains critical for buyers; as long as it holds, the broader uptrend stays intact, and bulls maintain the upper hand. Meaning that I keep "bullish" outlook.
This week, the market’s attention will be on NVIDIA's earnings on Wednesday. While the previous report didn’t cause much volatility, traders will be closely watching for any surprises that could influence market momentum.
A strategic pathway for SPY: preparing for a potential rebound nRecent Performance: The SPY (S&P 500 ETF) recently closed at $585.75, which
represents a significant decline from a previous closing price of $593.30.
Over the past week, it has faced a bearish trend despite trading above
crucial moving averages. The market highlights volatility with various
support levels testing resilience amidst price fluctuations.
- Key Insights: The SPY is at a crucial support level around $585. If this level
holds, a rebound could take the SPY to near $590. However, if support fails,
it could test lower support levels at around $580 to $575. Market players
should keep an eye on short-term movements, as further declines could lead
investors to redraw their strategies.
- Expert Analysis: Experts express a mixed sentiment toward the SPY with a
leaning toward a potential rebound. While the broader market trends suggest
positivity over the week, concerns about immediate volatility create two
potential paths forward. Analysts are keeping an eye on critical support
levels and the possibility of a bounce back, citing an estimated 85%
likelihood of an upward move within the next two trading sessions.
- Price Targets: Based on the wisdom of all professional traders, the next week
targets for SPY are:
- Next week targets:
- Target 1: $588
- Target 2: $590
- Stop levels:
- Stop 1: $584
- Stop 2: $580
- Longer-term targets:
- Longer-term target projected at $610, anticipated within the next few
weeks if bullish conditions hold.
- News Impact: Key recent news includes comments from Federal Reserve Chair
Jerome Powell, suggesting a steadiness in monetary policy without immediate
rate cuts, impacting overall market sentiment. Investors are expected to
watch these developments and their correlations with SPY's performance
closely. Additionally, broader economic indicators will further shape
investor outlooks leading into the new week.
You know what the deal isI am feeling this week we go to at least 600. Nice Doji candle holding up on the 4hr 50ma. 💯
SPY: Reversal or Continuation? Nov. 18, 2024SPY) is rebounding after a sharp sell-off, with price approaching critical resistance levels. With strong volume near recent lows, it’s a crucial moment for traders to watch for breakout or rejection opportunities. Here’s a detailed trading plan for scalping and swing setups.
Technical Overview:
Market Structure:
Trend: SPY remains in a short-term downtrend, but the current bounce from the lows indicates potential bullish momentum.
EMA Levels: The 9 EMA (purple) and 21 EMA (blue) are converging, creating a dynamic resistance zone near $590.
Key Levels:
Resistance Zones:
$594.50 – Immediate resistance aligned with EMA confluence.
$601.00 – Psychological resistance and key supply zone.
Support Zones:
$583.00 – Current support zone where buyers stepped in.
$580.00 – Critical demand zone and psychological support.
Supply and Demand Zones:
Demand Zone: $580.00–$583.00, where buyers have shown strong interest.
Supply Zone: $594.50–$601.00, where sellers have consistently stepped in.
Indicators:
MACD: Shows bullish divergence, with momentum building on the histogram.
Volume: Increased green volume bars indicate growing buyer interest near $583.00.
Pattern:
Potential inverted head and shoulders forming, signaling a possible reversal if $594.50 breaks.
Game Plan:
Scalping Plan (1-Min and 5-Min Timeframe):
Entry for Long:
Buy if price breaks above $594.50 with strong volume.
Target 1: $598.00 (scalp to mid-resistance).
Target 2: $601.00 (supply zone).
Entry for Short:
Sell if price rejects $594.50 or breaks below $583.00.
Target 1: $580.50 (psychological support).
Target 2: $580.00 (demand zone test).
Stop Loss:
Long: Below $593.00.
Short: Above $595.50.
Swing Trade Plan:
Bullish Scenario:
Buy if price holds above $583.00 and breaks $594.50.
Target 1: $601.00 (supply zone).
Extended Target: $610.00 (potential breakout level).
Stop Loss: Below $580.00.
Bearish Scenario:
Sell if price fails to hold $583.00 and breaks below $580.00.
Target 1: $570.00 (next demand zone).
Extended Target: $560.00 (potential lower low).
Stop Loss: Above $584.50.
My Thoughts:
For Scalping: Watch for a breakout or rejection at $594.50 for momentum trades. The volume profile near $583.00 suggests strong buyer interest, so tight risk management is key for shorts.
For Swing Trades: Price above $594.50 could signal a bullish reversal, while failure to hold $583.00 opens the door for further downside.
Directional Bias:
Short-term: Neutral-to-bullish if $594.50 breaks with strong momentum.
Mid-term: Slightly bearish unless SPY reclaims $601.00.
Actionable Suggestions:
Use the $594.50 resistance and $583.00 support as key levels for entries.
Focus on volume and price action at these levels for scalping and swing setups.
Avoid trading within the $583.00–$594.50 range to reduce noise and increase risk/reward.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always use proper risk management when trading.
SPY LOVERS, BE READY ! This week, I decided to remove some objects I had in the chart history as references, which we’ve been analyzing, to make some space and clean up the chart a bit.
After reaching all-time highs, the price has naturally begun a retracement.
But what’s new in technical analysis?
Let’s analyze the price together:
In this case, I added an ascending channel where the price follows an upward sequence, bouncing between support and resistance.
Here’s the million-dollar question: How much further can the price drop?
If we look at the chart, I marked a very important line in red or maroon color at $575.12, which aligns with a resistance pivot and two indecisive candlesticks with identical volumetric bodies.
Often, indecisive levels are key to how the market makes sudden decisions after an indecisive candle. In this case, if we pay closer attention, the indecisive level marked in maroon color is positioned exactly at the support of the ascending channel. This suggests how far the price might fall, and we could potentially see a rebound. For me, this would be the primary scenario.
But...
If the price breaks through this level, my second scenario would be a drop to the order block. Since this level has acted as both support and resistance in the past, I can validate it as my secondary inflection zone or "Inflection Block."
You might wonder: What on earth is an inflection zone?
As I’ve mentioned multiple times and explained in some of my analysis, inflection zones—or points of inflection—represent moments where there’s a significant change in the price’s direction within a trend, whether in a market, an asset, or an economy.
On a trading chart, an inflection point is the spot where the chart changes direction or marks an important decision.
An inflection zone can also be a historical area on a chart. As we can see, my order block is already being considered an inflection zone because the price has historically made key moves within it. and i called it "Inflection Block" (See the white arrows).
Thank you for supporting my analysis.
TRADE SAFE
Best regards!
SpyThis post here analysis is more about the longer term picture (Months)..
It's been awhile, so here we go.
Lets start with TVC:NYA
This represents 3000 stocks and gives a better picture of the market then S&P which is heavily weight tech.
Weekly chart -
We are at the top of a 15year resistance. Price slightly broke above it but was slammed back inside last week.
As you can see the structure is a wedge and I believe that over the next weeks and months NYA will correct back to wedge support or 17,500
This drop will be 8-10% and weigh heavily on the broader market and cylicals
Next up Is Dow jones or DJI
Weekly chart is pretty much identical to NYA so the analysis is the same
Daily chart
My correction target is 38,000
Or 10% drop
AMEX:IWM
Surprised? Similar chart as DJI and NYA. Only difference was that parabolic move I circled that happen late Nov on the presidential election of 2020. Otherwise this 15yr trendline resistance has stayed resilient. We tagged resistance near ATH and I think we will get one more push back up to 236-239 before it's goodnight.
Daily chart AMEX:IWM
My pullback target will be trendline support or 208/210 price action which would represent a 14$ drop from ATH
IXIC (Nasdaq)
I'm charting the Nasdaq instead of QQQ/NDX because QQQ only covers the top 100 tech names while IXIC covers all tech
Weekly chart
Closed up near top of resistance of Weekly channel. I circled the fake breakouts and break downs.
What was really bad about this week was the Dark cloud cover candle on the weekly .. This candle is pretty rare to see on the indexes; for reference I had to scroll back almost 10yrs and here's what I saw
July 20, 2015
My target for the nasdaq will between 17,500 - 17,800
Which would represent a 10% drop from ATH.
These are weekly charts and weekly forecast which means these corrections may take anywhere from 45-60 days to play out but I think it will happen before the election.. it's important to trade the time frame you are using.
For example, you don't want to take this analysis and just start 0dte puts or buying weeklies.. like I said this may take 2months to play out.
Also this is just the weekly, the hourly has now been severely oversold as a result of 3days of chop and 2 days of and I think the market will rally back up near ATH before the sell begins so don't go chasing shorts early.. imagine last week's leg down as the center line in a double top. I think early this week we'll rally up to make the right top.
Afterwards we should chop for thanks giving and drop afterwards like so
AMEX:SPY is 14% extended from its weekly 50sma. Last three times this happened spy corrected
8-10% within 30-50 days
My correction target for the Spy is 540 or 200sma which would represent a 10% pullback from ATH
So a summary of this post is, I expect a push to the upside early this week and then if the sell does not happen by Thursday then it won't happen till after Thanksgiving
SPY: Bulls Will Push Higher
Looking at the chart of SPY right now we are seeing some interesting price action on the lower timeframes. Thus a local move up seems to be quite likely.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
