IWM - Breakout AMEX:IWM is in the bull zone of the Bollinger Bands, and Stupid Willy just plunked down his life savings.
IWM trade ideas
Weekly resistance hitIWM had an impressive week as the bulls took charge again from the bottom of a trading channel.
Now IWM is back near the top of the weekly channel, facing resistance following a weekly false break.
If you are looking for potential bearish entries, this is an interesting zone to watch
IWM: Prepare to ShortFrom this chart, I have marked 8th Nov 2021 as the peak and end of the bull market for Russell 2000. This is despite the fact that S&P500 is still making new highs, a result of financial engineering.
IWM is now more representative of the actual health of the US economy. From this chart, I've marked the wave 1 impulse wave down, a triple combination (3x A-B-C = WXY) as wave 2, and the most recent sell off as minor wave 1. We are now in a minor wave 2 up. Personally, I will use the next Fibonacci retracement level (0.382) as my short entry point.
$IWM Trading Range for Today, August 7th 2024AMEX:IWM Trading Range for Today, August 7th 2024
Today’s implied move is between 200 and 209, and tomorrow it’s 198-210
A lot of really important levels to know if today’s trading range. We have the 1D 200MA, the 35EMA on the weekly timeframe, the 4hr 200MA and the 50Day MA all running through today’s range.
We also have a bear gap at the top of the implied move on the da, up near the 50DMA
Hopefully you’ve been following along on the videos and you know exactly what these levels are. I just didn’t have time to make a video for today but hopefully this is enough.
GL y’all.
Russell 2000 fractal points to 40-60% dropRussell 2000 currently creating fractal.
Points to possible 40-60% downside.
This fractal creates:
- A top
- A bear flag
- A failed break to the upside
- A large break down after the failed break up
This fractal occurred in 2008 and 2020.
Both instances of recessionary bear markets.
This could play out similarly if we get a recession.
Price target is around 95 -100.
More Downside for IWM or Is This a Rescue Operation?Let's kick off Tuesday morning by breaking down IWM:
First and foremost, on a daily chart, it appears to be in a freefall and this slight recovery is just a bounce along the ride down, complimented by the rising wedge pattern on a 1H chart.
I'd like to sit back and say, "well the markets recovering, so IWM should too". However, experience has taught me to trust the chart and not my heart. Keep in mind, the bottom also appears to be near so be cautious.
Other thoughts. We did see this ETF take a rip roar towards the upside about 3-4 weeks ago while the rest of the market trailed, so that's no real indication of what could happen in the upcoming days.
Conclusion: I'd be looking to day trade this, leaning towards a short-term slide towards the gutter in the region of 197. The sticky note region at the top, around 206.75 - 211.12 would indicate overhead resistance and a good place to lay groundwork.
Anyway, I'll be paper trading this out of curiosity. Market is volatile this week.
Trade accordingly.
$IWM Trading Range for Tuesday August 6thAMEX:IWM Trading Range for Tuesday August 6th
3.01% expected move for tomorrow. ooooh eeee...
IWM Time To Go Long Until The End Of YearIts Here get into small caps before they actually explode to the upside you all have been notified to get in early I've been in since $212ish
Crypto and Alts: time to be bullish . . IWM vs SPX will confirm?more confirmation of liquidity cycles repeating.. chart of IWM vs SPX ...
U can see that a trendline usually starts right when BTC is leaving its lows
And breaks during halving year with a RETEST before taking off
ALL OF THIS HAS JUST HAPPENED.
This comes at the same time with several bullish catalyst
- increased liquidity from US FED
- slow down in large cap stocks after giant rally
- upcoming Fed Cuts
the cuts themselves aren't bullish but as people expect this to happen they may front run and begin to position early (aka over the next 6 months)
this creates a risk on environment
This trend has happened in all the prior halving years and BTC especially Altcoins has positive movement into the end of the year.
worth also noting that there is a serious risk off period after this brief bullish .. will keep an eye out if we see euphoria type action into the end of the year.
IWM vs SPX: Bullish Breakout= Risk On..BTC & Crypto Rally Q3+Q4?more confirmation of liquidity cycles repeating.. chart of IWM vs SPX ...
U can see that a trendline usually starts right when BTC is leaving its lows
And breaks during halving year with a RETEST before taking off
ALL OF THIS HAS JUST HAPPENED.
This comes at the same time with several bullish catalyst
- increased liquidity from US FED
- slow down in large cap stocks after giant rally
- upcoming Fed Cuts
the cuts themselves aren't bullish but as people expect this to happen they may front run and begin to position early (aka over the next 6 months)
this creates a risk on environment
This trend has happened in all the prior halving years and BTC especially Altcoins has positive movement into the end of the year.
worth also noting that there is a serious risk off period after this brief bullish .. will keep an eye out if we see euphoria type action into the end of the year.
IWM Long 6/23/24Looking for a break through the wave D high of 209.77 and towards 227.13 against the wave C low of 191.34 in wave (C) of {B}.
$IWM - Delayed shooting start effect!AMEX:IWM Remember the July 21 post where I mentioned we might check back to the $210 area, and then a week later, I thought the shooting star was invalidated? Well, guess what? It even dropped below $210. It was just delayed by a week. 😂
$200 or below could be a good reload area.
Was that it for $IWM? Do we correct before the real run?While I do think that IWM is the place to be over QQQ , I think this run has gotten a little ahead of itself.
I noticed something interesting today on the chart, if you look at it on the 6hr or 4hr, you'll noticed we tried to break above resistance on the 9am candle, and rejected hard back below it.
This leads me to believe that the next move from here is actually down, not up.
If we zoom out, the chart looks extremely similar to how it did before the covid crash. We formed a high, went down and v bottomed up into what looked like a breakout (Feb 2020), but instead formed a double top and then rolled over hard.
Now we've pretty much made the same move, we formed a high in 2021, corrected, v bottomed in Oct 2023 and now we're at the exact level where a double top could take place from the high that was formed in Jan 2022 before price broke down.
So will we have another covid style crash that brings price back to $150 or lower? TBD, but I have that feeling...
$IWM Daily Trading Range for Friday August 2ndIWM took a beatdown yesterday and again today in premarket. It is just a little after 8:30 AM this morning, and IWM is down about 3.5%. It is now underneath the two gaps that we saw above the previous long-time resistance at 211. It will be interesting to see if that 211 level remains as resistance, or if we can get back above it and try again to fill those gaps from underneath.
IWM Breakout FailureI admit, AMEX:IWM was looking fantastic but the weight of the markets are much heavier right now and causing this one to decline. This a clear breakout failure and prices are likely to trade lower next.
$IMW setting new high this week.Get on board AMEX:IWM before the ship sails. AMEX:IWM is at resistance, trendline, and all the good-good. Get on board before the 230.00s are passed. Next week will be a doozy
Is the market crashing? The SPY and IWM have completely diverged.
On the back of rate cut expectations, many investors are piling back into the junk and high beta names.
A clear relative strength move has occurred in small caps: IWM
Whilst the megacap stocks have been sold off.
The SPY sliced through the 50 MA yesterday and cofirmed the break below.
Although this is typically bearish, we are getting into an area of oversold support.
If the SPY gaps down tomorrow, I think traders will be buying the dip with both hands.
The IWM has blasted above the 50MA, basically moving the exact opposite of the S&P500.
The question remains....are small caps going to hold their gains inside of the weekly topping tail?
IWM/SPX spread - Long smallcapsBeen watching for a reversal of the trend between the 2 indexes and a breakout of this bullish falling wedge for a while.
Fundamentally it made sense to look for this breakout result because of the looming interest rate cuts and frothy bond yields since the start of the year. Small caps are highly sensitive to such things.
Long IWM or TNA is the play on this breakout. But the best value will be found in heavily beaten down individual small caps.
If you want to hedge against a market correction long small caps short large would be the other play.
Russell 2000 I'm expecting russell 2000 to go up in the 190s and early 2024 after retesting in the 170s and going to 210s supported by lower rates.
IWM Pitchfan - Early - Low TimeframeI've been really happy with levels produced using the pitchfan tool. I typically place the left anchor on the local high and the bottom anchor near the local low, then adjust slightly until it looks correct. The best fans tend to 'drop' into the pattern, i.e. it enters the pitchfan drawing on a descent.
I will update or repost this chart as it plays out.
I shorted IWM @ 225.25Daily stock rolling over daily. candle rallied up shorts dropped it. Target 207-209
IWM - Penny to PennyLook how these algos pulled the IWM in a very specific range. the skew is saying the IWM will rise again.
iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)IWM breaks out of short-term ascending triangle late last week into early this week. Now working its way towards completing a two-and-a-half-year cup pattern. The pivot is currently the left side apex of the developing cup. Should a handle develop at some time soon, the pivot will shift from that left side peak to the apex of the right side of the cup. A take and hold of pivot would put a conservative target at $276. I am long this ETF.
