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GLD trade ideas

Gold's Rise Adjusted for the Money SupplyThe chart on the top shows the price of gold adjusted for the Money Supply. The chart at the bottom shows the price of gold over time. Compare and contrast the two and you see a valuable fact. Actually, this is something we should all do more often with our favorite symbols – compare and contrast them to the growing money supply. Meaning, while gold is hitting all-time highs in nominal terms (chart at the top) it actually is underperforming in a drastic fashion relative to the growth of the money supply happening all around us. In many respects, this is a super important method of repricing assets based on the expansion, growth, and proliferation of the Dollar. This is often why tech, new products, and innovations win out more than assets like gold. For example, the smaller chart to the right of both charts shows NVIDIA and Apple priced for the expansion of the Dollar. Both assets are still at all-time highs. In-fact, Bitcoin is also near or at all-time highs, although its chart is not nearly as "enormous" as it looks at a nominal level. There's a lot to unpack here and I'll have to share soon.
AMEX:GLD
by scheplick
Gold vs the 10yr yieldThis is a ratio chart. Gold is on top 10 year Yield is on bottom in the middle you can see the ratio between gold prices and the 10yr yield rising and falling. As you can tell, when the ratio reaches a low, gold prices tend to rise and yields tend to fall. Vice/versa when the ratio is at a high, Gold prices tend to fall, and yields tend to rise. Of course the ratio chart is not "CAUSING" the prices to rise or fall. In my humble opinion, we are relatively close to the long term low point on the ratio chart. Meaning that either gold prices should rise and or yields should fall, and or both maybe... Barrons has recently published a piece saying that rising supply of gold could contribute to prices ending the year around 2100. usd This would be a drop in price, and doesn't fit in with my narrative. It might be interesting to see how this ratio plays out, and perhaps it will help you form a bias for your next Gold trade!
AMEX:GLDLong
by Sacyourking
Double Top in Gold That Strangely is Correlated with NividiaDid you know gold and Nividia have an 81% correlation? That's strange. (chart in comments) I see a double top in gold. TTM Squeeze firing on weekly, daily, 4 hourly and it's a continuation of a squeeze on the hourly. TTM Squeeze's usually bounce off the opposite side when it breaks/fakes out. Outside an exogenous event I see pm's taking the summer off and reawakening in the fall when the dollar tops out after the BOJ sells US treasuries after China devalues their currency after the dollar spikes when Europe cuts rates soon. It's going to be an epic chain reaction. The FED will cut rates heading into the election and if Trump wins he'll ride the last meme wave until it crashes and reinstitute a gold standard, or if Biden wins we get CBDC's. I'll be looking for low IV OTM calls in the fall after the FED cuts rates...
AMEX:GLDShort
by EmptyEternity
GLD: Bearish Alternate Bat HOP Level Reached: Reversal LikelyThe yields within the bond market are hinting towards a reversal in Gold and potentially other metals today, however, Gold right now is sitting at the HOP level of a Bearish Alt-Bat. If GLD were to reverse here, we would see it as a type 2 return which could result in Bearish price-Action beyond just the intra week but extended to the entire macro trend as a whole. I will be playing this via multiple OTM /GC Bear Put Vertical Spreads on the monthlies and may potentially start playing cheaper bearish plays on a week by week basis.
AMEX:GLDShort
by RizeSenpai
3rd try at breaking through long-term resistanceGold is showing a classic long-term cup and handle period. Spent about 7 years in the "cup" (long shakeout period from the bubble that had formed after the last financial crisis followed by an eventual rally to previous all-time high). It has spent over 2 years now in the "handle" (period of consolidation giving the appearance that price can't break through the previous all-time high). After a recent shakeout and false breakdown from the handle pattern, it looks like it wants to test the all-time high again and this time there's a major catalyst (flight to safety due to all the uncertainty recently with the banks and the potential for yet another financial crisis). Due to that, I don't think you need to wait for a breakout of the all-time highs around $195 in GLD but that would be a safer entry (a monthly close above that level). Of course another shakeout from that level could follow because if I have picked up on this potential trade, then many others likely have also. Anyway, I am just speculating and not a financial advisor, if you decide to follow this please trade at your own risk and diversify (this trade won't break the bank for me personally if it doesn't work out and it shouldn't for you either).
AMEX:GLDLong
by PatientContrarian
POTENTIAL YIELDS CRASHING MAY LEAD TO A SUPER BULLISH GOLDThe inverse relationship between yield and gold over the long term gives us an idea of what phase and dynamics of the market we are in. The bottoms of the yields are the tops in gold; interestingly the bottoms happen in 4-year cycles, especially in summer, July or June; while the tops are every 5 years in fall, September or October. Based on these dynamics, a potential and highly probable correction in yield (by any factor) would lead to a historic run to the upside for gold.... Few... ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- La relación inversa entre rendimiento y oro a largo plazo nos da una idea de en que fase y dinámica del mercado estamos. Los fondos de los rendimientos son las cimas en el oro; curiosamente los fondos suceden en ciclos de 4 años, especialmente en verano, julio o junio; mientras que las cimas son cada 5 años en otoño, septiembre u octubre. Basado en esta dinámica, una potencial y altamente probable correción en el rendimiento (por cualquier factor) llevaría a una corrida al alza histórica para el oro...
AMEX:GLDLong
by yamilbocanegra
GLD - SHORT POOTSGold prices have been on the decline recently, influenced by several key factors: 1. **Correction from Highs**: Gold had reached a record high last week, trading at $2,413.80 per ounce. Such spikes are often followed by corrections, as seen with the current downward movement. 2. *Rising Dollar and Treasury Yields**: The U.S. dollar and Treasury yields have both increased, which typically makes gold less attractive. As the dollar strengthens, gold, which is priced in dollars, becomes more expensive for investors using other currencies, reducing demand. Higher Treasury yields also make gold less appealing since it does not offer interest or dividends, unlike bonds. 3. **Economic Data Influencing Fed Policy Expectations**: Recent U.S. economic data indicated a 1.6% growth in GDP for the first quarter, which was below expectations. This situation affects market predictions regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. Initially, weaker GDP growth might suggest potential rate cuts, which would typically support gold prices as a safe haven and hedge against currency devaluation. However, the current market sentiment suggests that investors are possibly adjusting their expectations about the extent and timing of such cuts. 4. **Geopolitical Tensions**: The easing of tensions between Israel and Iran has also played a role. With fewer concerns about a potential wider conflict in the Middle East, the demand for gold as a safe haven asset has diminished. 5. **Technical Support Levels**: Despite the recent drops, gold prices are still holding above the $2300 mark. Analysts from Saxo Bank noted that there is key support around the $2250-$2260 area, indicating that prices might stabilize if they reach these levels. Can see easily a demand area at 202 area, longer term. Puts bought on todays micro double top. good luck!
AMEX:GLDShort
by SPYDERMARKET
Gold bull flag reviewI posted this chart in march on a bull flag that was starting to form with a projection to the dashed green. This is a great example of a longer term setup that rewards the patient. Of then these flags or wedges like to break out on strong volume and then dump for a retest, only to continue to project towards the target. If you had entered 6month to one year out calls on this setup youd be up 400-700%. I did not play this setup this time around but have played GLD bull flags in the past and like to use them as a way to get standard investment exposure to the asset with higher upside, this is also more capitally efficient. -For example a June 21st 2024 call was 300-450$ in that timeframe in March, these are now worth 1320$ -This was my same strategy for OXY longer-term calls
AMEX:GLDLong
by Apollo_21mil
Gaining Laser Vision: Sharpening Your Trading FocusIt's common for some traders to see things in black and white, worrying too much about the outcome of each individual trade and giving excessive importance to winning or losing on every try. This perspective is pernicious because it overlooks the inherent uncertainty in the process, which often leads to unnecessary emotional burden and is almost always detrimental to decision-making. Unlike gambling, trading is more akin to a marathon than a hundred-meter sprint. Both for the trader and the marathon runner, the key factor isn't the outcome of a single operation or the speed in covering a short distance, but rather maintaining a consistent pace that allows them to reach their goals. Just like a professional marathon runner doesn't run the entire race at the same pace, a trader will experience losses and gains at different times. However, the key is to maintain a steady and consistent progress, evaluated in blocks of operations rather than each individual transaction. In the case of the runner, it's the stopwatch that shows the pace and acceleration, while in trading, the appropriate tool for this purpose is basic statistics. Both serve the same function: to numerically describe the activity being carried out. However, while analyzing the past is important for evaluation purposes, one of the most crucial aspects is the ability to make future estimates based on partial and past readings. While these readings may not provide much context on their own, when aggregated, they become powerful. In trading, two of the most basic statistics are also among the most important: expected value (average) and standard deviation, as they are fundamental to adequately describe a large sample of operations. Additionally, along with an appropriate estimation of probability, they allow for the calculation of future scenarios through statistical inference. Precisely, the task of statistical inference involves aggregating individual data points to obtain a broader view, enabling us to look towards the future, always recognizing the uncertainty and the importance of probability. Thus, mathematics allows us to understand the irrelevance of a single data point, such as the specific outcome of a trade. Statistical inference allows us to anticipate future outcomes by aggregating past data points, allowing us to understand how irrational it is to obsess over being right in each individual operation. Like the marathon runner, what matters is the final result, so the truly important thing is to focus on the process and the discipline in applying the set of predefined rules that form the backbone of our trading system. Moreover, an approach that moves away from the need to be correct in each individual operation and focuses on maintaining process consistency has the ability to completely change the trader's relationship with their operations, avoiding unnecessary emotional burdens, which often are the starting point for disaster. A brief look at the scope of backtesting can help us better understand the power of statistical inference. It's relevant to note that while backtesting is an important and very useful tool for evaluating past performance, it completely lacks the ability to extrapolate (anticipate the future) because it only looks backward. Although it can calculate averages, standard deviation, and some other more advanced metrics, it always operates in a world where there is no uncertainty because all the data is known in the past. It also doesn't incorporate a probability estimation, making it impossible to construct future scenarios. In short, the limitation of backtesting refers to replicating past operating conditions and staying there. While statistical inference looks to the future, backtesting looks to the past. Stay tuned to read more about it! In summary, trading involves maintaining a constant pace, evaluating performance in blocks, and recognizing the importance of the process over individual results. This discipline and strategic focus allow us to look confidently towards the future, as if we had a window showing us the path ahead.
AMEX:GLDEducation
by CF_444
Probability Blueprint: Building a Winning Trading StrategyUnderstanding Probability in Trading Probability is a fundamental tool in assessing the success of a trading system and making informed decisions. In simple terms, probability tells us how often we can expect a system to succeed relative to the total number of trades executed. Imagine you have a trading system with specific rules that are repeated over and over again. Each time we apply these rules and execute a trade, we're making an attempt. The probability of success is calculated by dividing the number of successful trades by the total number of attempts, giving us a kind of "success rate" or probability of success. It's important to understand that a good measure of probability is only achieved after a large number of individual trades. It's akin to flipping a coin many times and counting how many times it lands on heads. The more flips you make, the more accurate your estimate of the probability of the coin landing heads on the next flip becomes. Probability also helps us anticipate the future performance of our trading system. Imagine that individual observations of gains and losses are the input for this process. Statistical inference allows us to predict the future value of our account based on past results. The intuitive concept of probability is simple but has significant implications in trading because it allows us to quantify randomness, essentially enabling us to eliminate uncertainty from our business. Here it's important to differentiate between the uncertainty of the outcome of a single trade and the certainty of the average result projected into the future. Since probability represents the average likelihood of an event occurring after numerous repetitions, considering the variability of individual observations, it allows us to estimate our potential profit or loss, establishing upper and lower limits of our returns and providing insight into the future performance of our trading system. In summary, probability in trading is a powerful tool that helps us evaluate the success of our system and make informed decisions. The better we understand probability, the better equipped we will be to manage our risk and achieve our trading goals.
AMEX:GLDEducation
by CF_444