Salesforce CRM - PEAD (Post Earnings Announcement Drift)Salesforce CRM
PEAD (Post Earnings Announcement Drift)
This is a swing trading strategy.
You buy on a positive surprise in the quarterly or annual report. It has been shown that this surprise impacts the stock price for some time. This refers to Brandt and Kishore from the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University in the USA.
Points in the algorithm I follow:
03.12.2024: Q3 after market open.
The first trading day where Q3 results are known should see the price rise by more than 4.15%.
04.12.2024: 367.87$ - 331.43$ = 36.44$, which corresponds to 10.99%.
Buy on the 4th trading day, Monday 09.12.2024, and hold for 83 trading days until Wednesday 09.04.2025.
For the relevant index, the MA (Moving Average) should be above 87 at the time of trade. You can choose what suits you best, but:
Nasdaq index > MA 87
NYSE > MA 87
S&P > MA 87
The trade is only made when the general stock market is positive.
You can supplement with technical and/or fundamental analysis: CRM is in an upward trend and well above a green cloud in Ichimoku.
Buy at market open Monday 09.12.2024 at the price of 360$. I could have bought at a better price later in the day, but the idea is not to spend the whole day in front of the computer, and to execute the trade. However, this can be adjusted to fit personal preferences.
Set stop loss at 324$, which corresponds to 10%.
The strategy works best with large, liquid companies, value stocks, and smaller with growth companies. But for me, it has also worked on the latter.
I have tested the strategy a bit over the first half of 2024 with up to 5-6 companies at a time from NYSE. I’ve made a gain of 50% of the invested capital. But the strategy doesn’t generate profits every time!
Remember, you must do your own research and evaluation before buying or selling.