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GOLD → Interest rates are down, but why is gold falling?FX:XAUUSD falls to 2581. Yesterday's news had a negative impact on the market and it's not about rate cuts. Technically the price confirms the bearish nature of the market. The main reason for the decline in gold prices is the Federal Reserve's caution about lowering interest rates amid the latest economic data. The US central bank lowered the interest rate by 0.25% to the range of 4.25%-4.50% as expected, but for the next year it forecasts 2 rate cuts, which is much less than expected. The Fed's hawkishness has played its role: the dollar is rising, markets are falling. Today all eyes are on GDP and initial jobless claims. Technically, the price is out of the global channel, breaking the support, gold updates the low to 2581. Resistance levels: 2620, 2630, 2636 Support levels: 2616, 2612, 2603 After updating the low, a retest of the previously broken channel boundary and imbalance zones is formed. False breakdown of key resistance, for example 2620 or 2630 and subsequent consolidation of the price below these zones may lead to further decline. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
10
Back Up The TruckSome believe gold has finished it's bull run, old hat from the late 70's folks say they have seen this before and calling a crash. The Oct/Nov highs were ripe for a correction only, a wave four sideways triangle. This building structure has perhaps only a matter of days before breaking out, buy at today's support or wait for the upper breakout for confirmation. The coming wave five breakout will be strong, could coincide with geopolitical events. Upside in precious metals has much much further to go, the current stage is only folks getting interested...the coming chaos by design will usher in a stampede. There is insufficient PM's right now for delivery should holders request their holdings. Your opportunity to purchase PM's now, will prove prudent and wise. Appreciate a thumbs up, good trading and God Bless you all!
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by Fractal777
1
Rates Are Down, So Why Isn’t Gold Shining?Gold Prices Drop to 2581 Amid Market Turmoil: What's Driving the Decline? Gold prices, as reflected in the XAU/USD pair, have slumped to 2581, marking a significant dip in the market. While many anticipated that falling interest rates would bolster gold, the reality has turned out to be more complex. Yesterday’s developments weighed heavily on the precious metal, and surprisingly, the negative impact isn’t directly tied to rate cuts. Instead, a mix of economic uncertainty and technical market dynamics has pushed gold into bearish territory. The Core Reason Behind Gold’s Decline The primary driver of this downward movement is the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach regarding future rate cuts. While the Fed followed market expectations by reducing the benchmark interest rate by 0.25%, bringing it to a range of 4.25% to 4.50%, its projections for next year surprised many. The central bank’s forecast of just two rate cuts in 2024 falls significantly short of market expectations, signaling a more hawkish stance than anticipated. This hawkishness has rippled through global markets. The U.S. dollar, buoyed by the Fed’s cautious tone, has strengthened, creating headwinds for commodities like gold that are priced in dollars. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for international buyers, diminishing its appeal as a safe-haven asset. Meanwhile, broader market indices have also faced selling pressure, reflecting heightened concerns about the economic outlook. Technical Factors Amplify the Bearish Sentiment From a technical perspective, gold’s price action underscores the bearish sentiment dominating the market. The XAU/USD pair has decisively broken below a critical support level, exiting a global ascending channel that had been intact for weeks. This breakout has confirmed the downward momentum, with gold setting a new low at 2581. Key support and resistance levels now define the boundaries of potential price movements: Resistance Levels: 2620, 2630, 2636 Support Levels: 2616, 2612, 2603 After breaking below the support, the price has moved into an imbalance zone, signaling a possible retest of the previously broken channel boundary. This retest could serve as a pivotal moment for market participants. If the price fails to reclaim the resistance zones at 2620 or 2630 and consolidates below these levels, it could pave the way for further declines. False breakouts, where the price briefly breaches a resistance level before reversing, are another factor to watch closely. A failed attempt to break key resistances like 2620 or 2630 could reinforce the bearish trend and lead to further downward pressure on gold. Macroeconomic Data in Focus Today’s trading session brings additional catalysts that could shape gold’s trajectory. Market attention is firmly fixed on the release of U.S. GDP data and initial jobless claims. These indicators will provide fresh insights into the health of the U.S. economy and could either reinforce or challenge the Fed’s cautious stance. A stronger-than-expected GDP reading or lower-than-expected jobless claims could further support the dollar, adding to gold’s woes. Conversely, weaker economic data might rekindle hopes for more aggressive rate cuts, potentially offering some relief to gold prices. Broader Implications for Gold Investors The recent price action in gold highlights the complex interplay between macroeconomic fundamentals, central bank policies, and technical market dynamics. While gold has traditionally been viewed as a safe haven, its performance is not immune to shifts in interest rate expectations and currency fluctuations. For investors, the key question is whether gold’s current bearish trend represents a short-term correction or the beginning of a more sustained decline. Much will depend on how the Federal Reserve’s policy unfolds in the coming months and how global economic conditions evolve. In the short term, traders should monitor key technical levels closely. A decisive break above resistance at 2636 could signal a reversal of the bearish trend, while a sustained move below support at 2603 would likely confirm further downside potential. Until then, gold remains under pressure, navigating a challenging and uncertain landscape.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by lonelyPlayer0
2
NQ1 - Rate Cut Dip Buy Part 2I clicked "trading closed" or whatever on the previous thread so its easier to start another one, but look back for previous detail if you like... ... NQ1 Quite a wild little period here as you're busy preparing for Christmas 😅. But this is now a juncture where the wild downside may be coming to an end. ... Nice little bounce so here and its a weak 1:0.618 extension. So this tells us that there could be a significant bounce coming. Didn't quite hit support but front running is common with bullish indexes. ... Remember that although this is a long term 1.618 reaction that has historically led to major collapses, this area may also be post rate cut volatility. And so there is the possibility that the first wave of whipsaw is completing. If that is the case then we may see some strong bullish action. I think there is a reasonable chance that we may see a V shaped recovery. Though there can be minor pull backs along the way Up and up from here 👍. Not advice
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by dRends35
XAU/USD 20 December 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bearish. -> Internal: Bullish. FINAL ANALYSIS OF 2024! WISHING YOU ALL VERY HAPPY FESTIVITES. MAY 2025 AND OWNARDS BRING YOU ALL SUCCESS!! ANALYSIS WILL RESUME SECOND WEEK OF 2025 (DATE TO BE CONFIRMED) Analysis/Intraday expectation remains the same as analysis dated 16 December 2024. Price is clearly unable to target weak internal. This is due to the fact that Daily and Weekly Timeframe remain in bearish pullback phase. Price Action Analysis: Technically price is to target weak internal priced at 2,721.420. Price has sweeped liquidity, for two possible reasons. 1. To assist price to complete bearish pullback phase, react at either discount of internal 50% or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high. 2. To assist Daily and H4 TF's to complete bearish pullback phase with price to print a bearish iBOS and target strong internal low priced at 2,536.855. Intraday Expectation: Intraday expectation and alternative scenario as per points 1 and 2. Note: With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bearish. -> Internal: Bearish. FINAL ANALYSIS OF 2024! WISHING YOU ALL VERY HAPPY FESTIVITES. MAY 2025 AND OWNARDS BRING YOU ALL SUCCESS!! ANALYSIS WILL RESUME SECOND WEEK OF 2025 (DATE TO BE CONFIRMED) Analysis/bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 19 December 2024. Price Action Analysis: Yesterday's analysis played out as expected with price targeting weak internal low, printing a bearish iBOS. Price has printed a bullish CHoCH, indicating, but not confirming bullish pullback phase initiation. We are now trading within an established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price is currently trading at premium of internal 50% EQ where we could see a reaction. Price could potentially trade up to M15 supply level before targeting weak internal low priced at 2,583.915 Note: With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
2
Gold can decline to support level and then start to move upHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. Looking at the chart, we can see how the price started to trades inside a downward wedge, where it at once rebounded from the resistance line and dropped to the resistance level, which coincided with the seller zone. Soon, Gold broke this level and even declined a little, after which backed up to the seller zone, but soon dropped from this area to the 2590 support level. Next, the price declined below this level to support line of the wedge and then started to grow from this line and soon rose higher than the 2590 level, breaking it again. Then Gold continued to grow and reached the seller zone, after which made correction movement. After this movement, the price some time trades near the support level and later backs up to the seller zone and even a little higher, reaching the resistance line of the wedge. Then price dropped from this line to the support level, breaking the 2690 level and when it reached the support level, the price little declined to the buyer zone, after which started to grow. Now, I expect that Gold can fall to support level one more time and then start to grow. For this case, I set my TP at 2660 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by LegionQ8
2
Gold Consolidates Between Key Levels Amid Bearish TrendGold Technical Analysis The price recently reached the support level at 2585 and reversed. However, the bearish trend remains intact as long as gold trades below 2612. Gold is currently consolidating between 2612 and 2585. A breakout in either direction will determine the next trend: Stability above 2612, confirmed by a 4-hour candle close, suggests a move toward 2623. Stability below 2585 indicates a drop toward 2558. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 2612 Resistance Levels: 2623, 2638, 2653 Support Levels: 2586, 2572, 2558 Trend Outlook: Bearish Momentum: Likely below 2623 and 2612. Bullish Momentum: Possible above 2623. Previous idea:
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SroshMayi
CL_LONG_+991 TicksThe CL daily time frame has created an up channel. The market has hit the bottom of the channel and is showing signs of pushing bullish towards the top of the channel. The market has created an up Fibonacci with an extension price point 78.92 about +991 ticks above the market. The market has broke and closed above a counter trend line bullish and showing sings of wanting to push toward the Fibonacci extension. Entry: Counter trend line break bullish above the bottom of the channel. STOP: 64.60 LIMIT: 78.92. This is part of the long idea of the CL 01-25. The market has rolled into the next contract CL 02-25, so we are updating this idea.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by JoshuaMartinez
1
bull time?Current Trend: The chart shows a recent downtrend, with the gold price falling from levels near $2,630 to around $2,582. Key Support and Resistance Levels: Resistance 1: $2,608 - This level has acted as resistance, where the price has tried to break unsuccessfully on several occasions. Resistance 2: $2,622 - Another higher resistance level, which could be a target if the price breaks the first resistance. Support 1: $2,587 - This is a recent support level where the price has bounced off. Support 2: $2,582 - A lower and critical support, which could be an interesting entry point if the price touches it and bounces off. Technical Indicators: Trading Strategy: Support Entry: If the price touches the support at $2,582 and shows signs of bouncing (possibly confirmed by an increase in volume or a bullish candlestick pattern), it could be a good entry point for a long position. Breakout Entry: If the price breaks above $2,608 with significant volume, it could be an indication of a bullish reversal, making it a good point to enter long. Stop Loss: Place a stop loss just below the lower support level to limit losses in case of a downside breakout. Risk Management: Risk/Reward Ratio: Make sure the potential reward is greater than the risk taken. For example, if your stop loss is at $2,570, your profit target should be above $2,610 for a 1:2 risk/reward ratio.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JAG_Trader
Bears dominate - gold selling pressure below 2600⭐️Smart investment, Strong finance ⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION: Thursday's US economic data revealed a decline in unemployment claims, while the final Q3 GDP report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed 3.1% year-over-year growth. Despite these figures, market attention remains focused on projections for 2025. The Federal Reserve (Fed), led by Chair Jerome Powell, reduced interest rates by 25 basis points, though the decision was not unanimous, with Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack dissenting in favor of maintaining current rates. Fed officials have also shifted focus to inflation, as reflected in the dot plot. Their projections indicate two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2025 and another two in 2026. ⭐️Personal comments NOVA: Strong Bearish Trend - Pressure on Market Maintains Around 2600 ⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE: 🔥SELL GOLD zone: $2626 - $2628 SL $2633 TP1: $2620 TP2: $2610 TP3: $2600 🔥BUY GOLD zone: $2576 - $2574 SL $2569 TP1: $2582 TP2: $2590 TP3: $2600 ⭐️Technical analysis: Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order. ⭐️NOTE: Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well - take the number of lots that match your capital - Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account - Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Nova-Scalper
6
Could the Silver rise from here?The price is reacting off the support level which is an overlap support that lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and could rise from this level to our take profit. Entry: 28.78 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Stop loss: 27.71 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Take profit: 29.83 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:XAGUSDLong
by VantageMarkets
1
"Sell every High's on Gold"Technical analysis: Gold is displaying extreme durability as despite the Bearish pressure provided by the Technical necessity for the Lower High’s Lower zone extension, the parallel relief rally of DX and uptrend on Bond Yields, the Spot prices (Gold) was testing #2,582.80 - #2,592.80 Support zone throughout yesterday’s session, extending the range to #2,552.80 - #2,622.80 (Medium-term break-out levels). In addition to that, yesterday’s session High’s bounced exactly on the pressure point which is a sign that Bearish full scale reversal might not be far away, but will be surely postponed if today’s #2,611.80 - #2,613.80 Short-term Resistance cluster gives away and result as an #10 - #15 point recovery Intra-day. Daily chart remains an healthy Descending Channel but at the same time, Weekly chart (#1W) is on Negative gradient so only a new Higher High's Lower zone extension test can restore the Short-term Bullish sentiment (#2,622.80 or above towards #2,627.80 - #2,632.80). As I have closed all my my Selling order, I assume no new orders for the moment. My position: The Trade remains "Sell every High's on Gold" and remember as long as DX is Trading on upside numbers, recovery on Gold will remain very limited. I will either re-Sell Gold now with #2,582.80 Target, or await one of my upside re-Sell areas to re-Sell Gold towards Lower levels. I am looking at #2,552.80 benchmark test initially as I expect Gold to remain pressured on both Intra-day and Short-term basis.
TVC:GOLDShort
by goldenBear88
Gold Analysis December 20⭐️Fundamental Analysis Gold prices maintained a buying bias in the first half of the European session on Friday amid prevailing risk-off sentiment. Amid persistent geopolitical risks and trade war concerns, the threat of a US government shutdown prompted some safe-haven flows into bullion. C The Federal Reserve's hawkish signal that it will slow the pace of rate cuts in 2025 acted as a driver for US bond yields and favored USD bulls. Traders now look to the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which could influence the USD price dynamics and act as a driver for gold prices in the US session. ⭐️Technical Analysis Gold rebounded from 2587. This zone became a resistance zone but is no longer too strong if the selling pressure is strong. The important zone at the moment is around 2607. When this zone breaks before the middle of the European session, the target of 2622 will be where SELL signals can be considered. If the US session breaks this zone, we have two possible resistance zones, the first SEL around 2633-2635 and when this zone breaks, we must aim for 2658-2660. If it fails to break 2607, set SELL to 2555. ⭐️Trading signals SELL GOLD zone 2622-2624 Stoloss 2627 SELL GOLD zone 2633-2635 Stoploss 2638 BUY GOLD zone 2656-2654 Stoploss 2651 BUY Scalp 2692-2690 Stoploss 2687
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader