Get started

ETF market

Opening (IRA): IBIT Jan 17th 50 Covered Call... for a 47.76 debit. Comments: High IV at 65.3%. Selling the -75 call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. This isn't the best entry (an understatement), but am looking at it as a starter position which I will add to, assuming I can get in at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on. Previously, I was working BITO due to its monthly dividend, but it suffers from "rollover risk" and BITO IV is higher on the put side than on the call, making selling puts more productive in that instrument, kind of defeating the reason why you might want to be in that instrument -- the dividends, for which you have to be in stock. IBIT IV is higher on the call side than BITO, making covered calls more productive from a max profit standpoint. (The max of the Jan 17th 50 short put, 24 delta, is 1.77 here versus 2.24 for the monied covered call). Alas, the trade-off is ... no dividends. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 47.76/share Max Profit: 2.24 ROC at Max: 4.70% 50% Max: 1.12 ROC at 50% Max: 2.35% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; roll the short call out on break of my take profit (which is (50.00 - 47.76)/2 + 47.76 or 48.88.
NASDAQ:IBITLong
by NaughtyPines
Deep short for SPY? My target is at 510, here why!Christmas Eve Rally? - Not quite. Trump Trade? - Hardly. So, what’s driving the market higher, and where is SPY headed next? Investor sentiment surrounding the upcoming U.S. presidential elections seems to echo the euphoria of 2016, raising hopes for a similar post-election rally. Themes like tax cuts, protectionism, and trade wars are fueling optimism for U.S. equities. But let’s not get carried away. The economic and geopolitical landscapes today are vastly different, and so is the narrative. The “Superman” Trump of 2016 no longer holds the same sway over markets. The post-COVID stock market rally was buoyed by an unprecedented flood of liquidity. Based on our analysis, those excess dollars are nearly spent. Furthermore, the global economic outlook bears little resemblance to the relatively stable environment of 2016. While the Democrats’ recent performance metrics provide Powell with ample material to champion a “resilient economy,” the bigger question remains: Is the U.S. stock market truly worth its current valuations? We’ll delve into the overvaluation of the #SPY and #SPX indices in greater detail in the coming updates. For now, you can pay close attention to technical analysis, identifying key peaks and potential correction levels.
AMEX:SPYShort
by gorgevorgian
Maximize Your Gains: QQQ Looks Strong for Next WeekRecent Performance: The Invesco QQQ Trust has shown remarkable bullish momentum, recently hitting an all-time high while other indices like the Dow and Russell have struggled. In contrast, the S&P 500 has moved sideways, highlighting QQQ's dominance, primarily powered by robust technology sector performance. - Key Insights: Maintaining support above 526.72 is critical for QQQ's potential gains next week. The market sentiment leans positive, especially with anticipated rebounds in small-cap stocks and ongoing strength in tech stocks. Investors should focus on the broader patterns in the tech sector as well as relevant economic indicators that could impact performance. - Expert Analysis: Market experts emphasize the importance of QQQ staying above its support levels, particularly the significant level of 526.72. They anticipate that if QQQ holds this level, it could pave the way for additional upside, correlating positively with small-cap stocks as they potentially rebound. The resilience in leading technology stocks reinforces a bullish sentiment for QQQ going forward. - Price Targets: For next week, targets and stops are outlined as follows: - Next week targets: T1: 533.36, T2: 538.70 - Stop levels: S1: 526.72, S2: 524.04 - News Impact: Recent earnings reports from major tech players like Broadcom have contributed to the bullish momentum in QQQ, underlining the index's sensitivity to sector-specific news. The broader economic landscape also remains relevant, with macroeconomic indicators influencing market sentiment. As QQQ continues to capitalize on positive developments within the tech sector, investors should stay alert to both stock-specific performance and overall market trends.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by CrowdWisdomTrading
S&P is Shaping a Bull Flag While Awaiting the FED DecisionLast week was characterized by increasing selling pressure that hindered upward price progression but failed to trigger any substantial pullback. The market has not even retested the previous consolidation zone ( 598-601 ), which highlights the weakness of the sellers. Looking at the daily chart, the recent price action resembles a bull flag, favoring a continuation of the upward trend. For sellers to demonstrate their strength, they must not only break this pattern to the downside but also breach the 598 support level and drive the price further down to 594 . Much will depend on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week, alongside the release of key economic data. The most favorable outcome for the bulls would be a 0.25% rate cut. Any other scenario could spark concerns—either about an impending recession (if the cut is larger) or about a prolonged high-interest-rate environment (if the cut is absent). The market outlook remains bullish; however, the current price level is not ideal for new long positions. Buyers would be better served by waiting for a more meaningful pullback (e.g., to the 600 level), provided it is not driven by a negative shift in economic sentiment.
AMEX:SPY
by hermes_trisme
Daily analysis of intraday trading in US stocksWhat is this blog about? The blog is dedicated to intraday trading on the US stock market (NYSE, NASDAQ exchanges). After each trading session, I choose the most interesting and understandable stock in terms of making a profit and do a detailed analysis of it, indicating the prerequisites for opening a position, entry and exit points. The analysis is conducted in accordance with the applied trading system, which is based on the price reaction to horizontal levels (rebound, breakout, false breakout) and volumes. I do not use indicators. Each analysis is accompanied by a screenshot of the trade. There is a daily (and in some cases, hourly) chart in the upper part, which is used to analyze the overall picture and draw daily levels. There is a minute (in some cases, two-minute) chart in the lower part, which is used for intraday analysis, drawing intraday levels, entering and exiting a position. What is the practical benefit of trade analyses? Broad visual experience is one of the key components of successful trading on financial markets, in addition to the trading system, psychology and risk management. Normally traders spend thousands of hours looking at charts before it starts to bring positive results. However, simply looking at the chart is not enough. We need to understand what exactly we are looking for there and what situations allow us to make a profit with a higher probability. Analysis of trades helps to solve one of the main problems of beginner traders - lack of visual experience, and for experienced traders this is an opportunity to add/correct their trading system with new trading scenarios. How to select stocks for trading? It is important to select the right stocks every day that have the potential to make a profit with a high probability, in order to be successful in intraday trading. Main criteria for selection: 1. High liquidity (trading volume from 1,000,000 units and above) 2. High activity in the premarket 3. Pure directional movement 4. The stock movement does not repeat the market movement 5. "Respect" for levels both in the premarket and in the main session 6. The presence of a catalyst for movement (news, earnings, technical etc.) These criteria are perfectly suited to the so-called Stocks In Play, which make significant non-standard movements within one trading session, which often exceed the standard price movement (ATR) several times, influenced by a strong catalyst background.
AMEX:SPY
by AlexX31
The chart reflects bullish price action supported by key elementDetailed Analysis of the Chart: Yellow Trend Line (Bullish Bias): Price remains in a clear uptrend (yellow lines), moving consistently higher while respecting the ascending support trend line. This bullish trend is reinforced by multiple Bullish Fair Value Gaps (FVG) that acted as strong support zones for upward momentum. Volume Observations: Volume increases during significant upward movements (e.g., 3.47M, 3.755M), indicating institutional support for price at these levels. However, volume slightly declines near the hammer candle at a recent high, signaling potential exhaustion. Key Levels: . 50 Fibonacci Extension: Price is approaching this level, which may act as a short-term resistance. If price fails to break above this extension, a pullback to test previous Bullish FVG zones is likely. Red Trend Line (Bearish Scenario): If price breaks below the yellow uptrend and Monday’s open confirms bearish momentum, the red trend line highlights a potential reversal setup. A Bearish FVG forming after this breakdown would provide confluence for short entries upon a retest of the red FVG. Hammer Candle: The recent hammer at a high could signify a potential reversal signal. This often occurs when buyers fail to push prices higher, allowing sellers to gain control. Bias Sentiment for Monday’s Open Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation (Primary Bias) If price respects the yellow trend line and maintains its bullish structure, expect a continuation upward. A break above the .50 Fibonacci Extension would confirm this sentiment. Entry Idea: Look for long positions near the bullish FVG zones or upon a clean break of recent highs. Scenario 2: Bearish Reversal (Secondary Bias) If price opens bearish and breaks below the yellow uptrend, the focus shifts to the red trend line and the Bearish FVG retest. Entry Idea: Wait for a Bearish FVG to form on a pullback and consider short positions on a confirmed retest for lower liquidity zones. Summary Primary Bias: Bullish continuation with price maintaining the yellow uptrend. Secondary Bias: A break of the yellow trend line signals bearish momentum, with the red trend line and Bearish FVG retest as confluence for short positions. Key Focus: Monitor price action near the yellow trend line support, .50 Fibonacci Extension, and any bearish signals (FVG) if Monday opens weak. Come back Monday at 9am for a market and chart update.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by CapitalGainz33
Watchlist (12/16-12/20) Using TheStratSPY Analysis: Month is 2U but back under previous M high and close to flipping red. Last week was 2D but failed to get to magnitude and closed red, but above the reversal trigger at previous week lows. Daily was 2D on Friday, so the daily actionable signal would be a 2D-2U reversal if buyers were strong enough to make a higher high on the daily come Monday. To get us lower, we have a 3-1 4HR setup as well as a shooter 2U Hourly candle. Trigger and target levels can be seen on the chart. Overall, we have some confliction as the D and W are red while the M is still green. This shows an attempt to flip the month red and we must view it this way until we see a daily higher high. If that were to happen, then we look to see the week flip red and then possibly make a higher high on the week for the weekly reversal back to the upside, which would re confirm the month being 2U and green. Traditional TA traders will see a wedge or bull flag on the daily/4HR, but as Strat traders, we know this is just a lack of strength from either side as we continue seeing failed attempts to make HHs and LLs. Although unconventional, if you check the 3 Day TF through the 8 Day TF, you will see they are all currently inside bars in formation still. We also know that inside bars restart the process of making broadening formations, so now its just a waiting game. We see the current attempt is to make lower lows on the daily since we failed to take highs out after the daily reversal, so we now either take out lows, or fail and move back through previous range to the upside. With conflicting situations like this, you just have to rely on timeframe continuity. Until the M, W, D, and 60 are all the same color, simply fall back on top down analysis and timeframe continuity to see what's really going on regardless of how the charts may look Weekly Watchlist: Bullish: ETSY - 2-1 Week, Failed 2D Day. FTFC Green, so looking for BF expansion on the weekly CRWD - 2-1 Hammer Week. 4HR inside bar. Monthly 3-2-2 still slowly compounding 2Us to Mag RBLX - MoMO Hammer 2U week. 2-1 Daily to trigger week RKLB - 3-2D Hammer Week. Relatively large ATR and high rVol Bearish: MCD - 3-1 Week, Shooter 2U Day PINS - 3-2U failed Week, No Daily AS. Weekly Motherbar issues so caution here PDD 1-2U failed week (Revstrat). No Daily AS. Going for large weekly BF magnitude ROKU - Failed 2U Week. At Monthly exhaustion risk. Daily PMG and gap fill potential OXY - 2-1 Shooter Week. Not much range, but clean weekly AS and all big oil names deep red DDOG - 2-1 Week (Huge red week), Daily 1-3. 2 Daily gap fills, and some weekly lows to target LVS - 2-3 Week. At Q exhaustion. Will be FTFC Red before W triggers the 3-2D Neutral: WMT - 2-1 Week, Daily 3-2D failed. Daily AS could send it back into ATH. Alternatively there is an 11 pivot PMG to the downside + a small gap to fill
AMEX:SPY
by Alanger17
IWM Breaking Down! Key Levels $ Setup for the Week of Dec. 16.1. Technical Analysis (Daily & 1-Hour Timeframes) Daily Chart (Longer Timeframe): * Trend: IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is breaking down from its rising channel, signaling weakness. * Resistance: * 240: Previous support turned resistance. * 244.98: The upper supply zone where sellers may step in. * Support: * 233: Immediate key support where buyers may attempt to hold. * 214: Stronger support from prior price action. * Indicators: * MACD: Bearish crossover confirms downward momentum. * Volume: Elevated selling pressure in the last few sessions. 1-Hour Chart (Shorter Timeframe): * Trend: Price is in a short-term descending channel, testing support near 233–232. * Resistance: * 235.95: Closest resistance on the 1-hour chart. * Support: * 231.88: The next key level of support aligned with recent lows. * MACD: Slight signs of recovery but remains bearish overall. -------------------------- 2. GEX Analysis Key GEX Levels: * CALL Walls (Resistance): * 235: 2nd CALL Wall, presenting overhead resistance. * 237: Highest resistance level from GEX and likely area of rejection. * PUT Walls (Support): * 233: Current area showing significant PUT support, aligning with technical levels. * 231: Highest negative GEX level, acting as a major support zone. Options Oscillator Insights: * IVR: 19.1% – Elevated volatility, making options slightly more expensive. * PUTs: 86.08% activity signals strong bearish sentiment in options flow. ------------------------- 3. Trade Setups Bearish (Short Bias): * Entry: Near rejection at 235–237 resistance. * Target: * 233 PUT support as the first target. * 231 negative GEX as the extended target. * Option Strategy: * Buy PUT options (strike 233, expiry 1 week out). * Consider a Bear Put Spread: Buy 234 PUT, Sell 231 PUT to lower cost. Bullish (Rebound Play): * Entry: If IWM holds above 233 PUT support with bullish volume confirmation. * Target: * 235: Closest resistance target. * 237 CALL Wall as an extended target. * Option Strategy: * Buy CALL options (strike 233, short-term expiry). * Use a Bull Call Spread: Buy 232 CALL, Sell 235 CALL to minimize risk. Directional Bias for This Week * Bearish unless IWM can reclaim 235 resistance. The current price action and heavy PUT positioning signal downside risk toward 231 PUT Wall support. * Watch for potential bounce opportunities at 233, but the trend favors further weakness. Short Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
AMEX:IWM
by BullBearInsights
SPY Technical Analysis and GEX Insights for Dec. 16 1. Technical Analysis (Daily & 1-Hour Timeframes) Daily Chart (Longer Timeframe): * Trend: SPY remains in an upward channel but is showing signs of exhaustion near the upper trendline. * Resistance: * 609–610: This is the upper channel resistance where price may face selling pressure. * Support: * 586.15: Immediate support level from previous consolidation. * 580: A key zone to watch if selling accelerates. * Indicators: * MACD: Bearish divergence on the daily, signaling potential weakness. 1-Hour Chart (Shorter Timeframe): * Trend: SPY is currently pulling back after rejecting a supply zone near 609. * Resistance: * 608–609: The major resistance area. * Support: * 602: Closest support level. * 597.28: Critical support aligned with GEX levels. * MACD: Bearish crossover, suggesting downside momentum in the short term. 2. GEX Analysis Key GEX Levels: * CALL Walls (Resistance): * 606: 2nd CALL Wall, acting as significant resistance. * 610: 3rd CALL Wall, the upper boundary of price action. * PUT Walls (Support): * 604: 2nd PUT Wall – current area of congestion and potential bounce zone. * 600: Highest negative GEX, providing the strongest support below. Options Oscillator Insights: * IVR: 7.3% – Low implied volatility makes options cheap for directional trades. * PUTs: 47.7% activity signals notable bearish positioning, adding downside risk. 3. Trade Setups Bearish (Short Bias): * Entry: Near rejection at 606–609 resistance. * Target: First target at 602, extended target at 600 PUT support. * Option Strategy: * Buy PUT options (604 strike or ATM PUTs). * Use a Bear Put Spread: Buy 605 PUT, Sell 600 PUT to reduce premium cost. Bullish (Bounce Play): * Entry: If SPY holds above 602–604 PUT Wall support with bullish volume confirmation. * Target: 606–609 CALL resistance. * Option Strategy: * Buy CALL options (604 strike, 1-week out). * Use a Bull Call Spread: Buy 603 CALL, Sell 608 CALL for a cheaper setup. Directional Bias for This Week: * SPY leans bearish in the short term if it fails to reclaim 606–609. Watch for a potential drop toward 602–600 PUT support. * A bullish bounce could occur at 602 if volume confirms support strength. Short Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
QQQ at a Critical Level! Key Trade and GEX Insights for Dec. 16 1. Technical Analysis (TA): Daily Chart (Longer Timeframe): * Trend: QQQ is in an uptrend but showing a rising wedge pattern, which can indicate a potential pullback if broken. * Key Resistance: * 533: Current high; price is testing this level. * A breakout could lead QQQ to test 536–540. * Key Support: * 525: First support area aligned with horizontal structure. * 522: Second critical support. 1-Hour Chart (Shorter Timeframe): * QQQ is consolidating near resistance levels and forming a wedge. * Volume: Decreasing slightly, which indicates hesitation at higher levels. * MACD: Mixed momentum; slight bearish divergence on the 1H timeframe. 2. GEX Analysis for QQQ (Options Insights): Key GEX Levels: * Highest Positive Gamma (CALL Wall): * 530: Strongest resistance area where upward moves may slow or reverse. * 534–536: Additional resistance from the 2nd and 3rd CALL Walls. * PUT Wall Support: * 525: Significant support where price may stabilize if it declines. * 522: Acts as the next strong support level. Options Sentiment: * IVR: 5.8% – Very low implied volatility, meaning options are cheap. * PUTs: 14.8% – Limited PUT positioning shows low bearish pressure. 3. Trade Setups (Options and Trading): Bearish Setup (Short Bias): * Entry: Rejection near the 530 CALL Wall. * Target: * First target: 525 PUT Wall. * Extended target: 522 PUT Wall. * Stop-Loss: Above 534. * Option Strategy: * Bear Put Spread: Buy 530 PUT, Sell 525 PUT. Bullish Setup (Short-Term): * Entry: Break and close above 530 with strong volume. * Target: 533–536 CALL resistance. * Stop-Loss: Below 527. * Option Strategy: * Bull Call Spread: Buy 530 CALL, Sell 536 CALL. 4. Directional Bias: * Tomorrow: QQQ may face rejection near 530 due to CALL wall resistance. A pullback to 525 is likely if volume weakens. * Next Week: * Watch for a breakout above 530 for a bullish continuation. * A breakdown below 525 opens up 522 as the next downside target. Key Levels to Watch: * Resistance: 530, 533–536. * Support: 525, 522. Final Thoughts: Combine price action signals with GEX levels to guide trades. Options setups can focus on PUT spreads for bearish moves or CALL spreads for bullish breakouts. 🚀 Short Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by BullBearInsights
Silver Poised for Upside?SLV is setting up a strong case for a position trade. A similar situation recently played out with Palantir, although with greater risk involved due to being an individual stock, but we don't need to exclude the intrinsic value of precious metals. Multiple timeframes are showing technical confluence and this is something to watch beyond 2024. Key Points: SLV has formed a larger, albeit lopsided, cup and handle pattern on the monthly chart with another mild version of the same pattern post 2020. The dip having been formed by the 2022 bear market. Price has simultaneously found support between the Ichimoku Kumo(formed by an offset of the average price between highs/lows) and a well-defined static support/resistance zone indicating stability. The "Golden Cross" remains well intact from its formation in Q2 of this year. This is bullish bias. The slow stochastic, also formed by highs/lows as opposed to a rate of change, has pulled back from overbought territory on both the weekly and daily timeframes. The weekly stochastic appears to be a well balanced oscillator for SLV. I personally find ROC oscillators and MA crosses better for exits. We do have a bearish engulfing candle on this timeframe suggesting near term weakness, so it's critical to watch for incoming support. Final Thoughts: Silver remains structurally strong and we have a bullish case on multiple timeframes. While short term bearishness indicates caution, the overall technical picture suggests solid upside potential. Support: $26 Resistance: $30.5 Target: $34+
AMEX:SLVLong
by NantzOS
1
Market Update - 12/15/2024• only 21% invested, got shaken out of most of my positions • large bad trades this week cost me almost $300 or 10% of my account • I will not put large positions again in bad and worsening market breadth environment • watchlist is the shortest it's been in a while, setups are not the best either • most setups are in finance names, I think they could be leaders after the FED decision next week • whatever industry leads in the first few days after the FED decisions will likely be the leader • won't add new positions until the decision next week, or at least nothing large, will remain defensive until things improve
AMEX:IWM
by BenedekBokor