SP 1 Hour Revised with Bottom Of March 2020SP 1 Hour Revised with Bottom Of March 2020 there are many rectangles
ETF market
SPY analysis for Dec-18Watch out for important key levels.
Break above $605.85 with bar close will open bullish trade.
Break above $602.15 with bar close will open bearsih trade.
Yieldmax Feat FivyYM Feat and FIVY ETFs launched today
using the Dorsey Wright Point and Figure Strategy.
I don't know how to Read it and traded it but this is what a point and figure chart looks like.
Energy Sell Off - Low RSI Not Seen Since CovidWatch energy to see if it bounces off these levels as the selling pressure over the last two weeks has been relentless with no bounces. Possible Bullish abandoned baby candle if tomorrow is a large up candle.
Understanding the Bullish Abandoned Baby
Traders watch for bullish abandoned baby patterns to signal the potential end of a downtrend. The pattern is fairly rare as the price movements need to meet specific criteria in order to create the pattern:
1. The first bar is a large down candlestick located within a defined downtrend.
2. The second bar is a doji candle (open is approximately equal to the close) that gaps below the close of the first bar.
3. The third bar is a large white candle that opens above the second bar.
12/04 UVXY long Hello traders,
It’s time to take a look at UVXY again. Here are a few reasons why you might consider buying VIX for hedging or profit. Either way, it’s not a bad idea to allocate some funds:
1. Potential Yen-Carry Trade Unwind: There’s a strong possibility we’ll see another round of yen-carry trades unwinding as Japan prepares for another prime rate increase.
2. SPY Resistance Levels: SPY is approaching the 6100 area, which is a key resistance zone. I anticipate a pullback to the 6000 area, possibly testing it tomorrow or Friday. This movement could push UVXY toward the 21 level in the short term.
Additionally, UVXY is a good mid-term hold since SPY has a higher probability of moving downward than upward in the coming days.
May the trend be with you.
AP
Opening (IRA): EWY July 18th 35C/February 21st -55C PMCC*... for an 18.17 debit.
Comments: Back into EWY, after missing out on the dividend due to my shares being called away. Since there is no longer a dividend to be had, going with a Poor Man's Covered Call/long call diagonal, buying the longer-dated 90 delta strike and selling a shorter-dated call that pays for all of the extrinsic in the long, resulting in a setup that has a break even slightly below where the underlying is currently trading.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect: 18.17
Break Even: 53.17
Max Profit: 1.83
ROC at Max: 10.07%
50% Max: .92
ROC at 50% Max: 5.04%
Delta/Theta: 46.50/.751
Will look to money/take/run at 50% max.
IWM to bounce $240 targetMy trading plan is very simple.
I buy or sell at top & bottom of parallel channels.
I confirm when price hits Fibonacci levels.
So...
Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing.
Price at bottom channels (period 52 39 & 26)
Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at oversold level
VBSM is negative
Price at or near 0.618 retrace Fibonacci level
In at $232ish
Target is $240 or channel top
Stop loss is $228, but will reenter at $225ish.
Opening (IRA): TLT February 21st 87 Covered Call... for a 85.97 debit.
Comments: Going long at or near November lows, selling the -75 call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, with the built-in defense of the short call. I'm also looking to snag the January and potentially the February dividends here. This is a bit longer-dated than I ordinarily like to go, but I'm not doing a ton here besides waiting for January setups to come in/be managed.
The obvious variant is to sell the standard -30 delta against: TLT Feb 21st 94 covered call, 89.72 debit, 4.28 max. 4.77% ROC at max where the short call is paying >1% of the strike price in credit.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 85.97/share
Max Profit (ex. dividends): 1.03
ROC at Max: 1.20%
50% Max: .52
ROC at 50% Max: .60%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max after at least the January dividend drops.
Opening (IRA): EWY January 17th 52 Covered Call... for a 51.50 debit.
Comments: Primarily in this for the dividend, since the ROC %-age without it kind of blows chunks. The last four distributions were: .63, 1.68, .70, and 1.65. Would appreciate something in the neighborhood of 1.00 (please and thank you) ... .
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 51.50/share
Max Profit: .50
ROC at Max (Excluding Dividends): .97%
I generally look to take profit on these at 50% max, but will wait for the dividend to drop to see what's what ... .
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-17: Momentum Rally PatternToday's Pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will rally higher - possibly attempting to find a top.
What I find interesting is the big rally in the QQQ/Nasdaq yesterday. Possibly, the Momentum Rally phase hit the NQ yesterday.
Overall, I'm still looking for the markets to attempt to roll into a topping pattern. So, I'm staying very cautious of any big market moves right now.
Yes, if you look at the QQQ/NQ, it looks like the markets are in liftoff mode (bullish), but other data suggests the markets are actually weakening and pulling into a reversion phase.
Gold and Silver will likely find a base/bottom soon. I picked up some Call options on SILJ and GDX recently anticipating the potential rally move.
Bitcoin is well beyond a 100% measured move higher. Even though I believe Bitcoin can rally to 112k - 115k, I'm urging traders to stay cautious (still).
My data suggests the markets are weakening and possibly moving into a pullback/reversion phase.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY Options: Bull & Bear (Week of December 16)AMEX:SPY
Short-term we are looking at a downside trade as we want RSI to cool off a bit. Key levels at $607 and our key pivot of $604.25 last week.
📜 $604 Put 12/31
Entry: Rejection and 15-min close UNDER $607, entry off retest of resistance
🎯 Targets: $604.25, $603.37
📜 $608 Call 12/31
Entry: Breakout and 15 min close OVER $607, entry off retest of support
🎯 Targets: $608, $608.50
Bias for Today: Short with Bearish FVGs or Flip Long on Short with Bearish FVGs or Flip Long entering Calls on the First Bullish Fair Value Gap.
AMEX:SPY "Today's market bias is to open with a short outlook. If bearish Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) start to form and price respects them, I’ll look to enter short positions targeting lower levels. However, if price bounces off these zones and a bullish FVG forms, I will shift focus to initiate long positions on the first bullish FVG that sets up cleanly. Watching for clear confirmations and respecting key price action levels will be critical. Let’s stay adaptive to what the market gives us!"
SPY will drop ... until Christmas.This is going to be quick.... busy right now.
You can look at my other charts to see the explanation of why I use the Heikin Ashi candlesticks.
The SPY is going to drop until Christmas. You can see the indicators on the daily chart shifting towards a downward move.
I believe you will see a zig zag move with this drop.
This week the market will drop.
Starting Monday you will see it move slightly upward as there will be indecision/positivity around the Fed Decision.
After the Fed Decision, the market will drop again until Christmas. This drop will be about the same distance as the drop this week.
The targets I have laid out are on the Chart with the drop hitting around 593 before going back up at the beginning of next week to hit about 601.
(It may not go up this high with the bounce up; it could hit a different level. I will update this post of the different levels it could hit if it hits my 593 target.)
After the Fed decision, it will drop until approximately 585.
I could be slightly off on any one of my targets. And if it doesn't hit 593 by the end of this week, all my other predictions will shift.
Happy trading.
SPY Analysis: Daily & 1-Hour Chart With GEX Analysis for Dec. 17Current Sentiment:
* SPY appears range-bound but leaning bearish near resistance on the Daily chart.
* The 1-Hour chart shows SPY retracing from its recent high around 609, struggling to hold above key support levels.
Key Technical Levels
Daily Chart:
* Resistance: 609.97 (recent high).
* Support: 602.81, 598.40.
* Trend: Uptrend intact, but momentum is stalling. Watch for a potential break below 602.
1-Hour Chart:
* Resistance: 607, 608.41 (GEX Call Wall and prior highs).
* Support: 605, 604 (key demand area), and 602.13 (next major support).
* SPY is showing lower highs on the hourly chart, indicating a short-term bearish bias.
Options Gamma Exposure (GEX)
* Call Wall: 608 (2nd Wall) and 611 (upper wall).
* Put Wall: 604 (3rd PUT Wall).
* HVL (High Volatility Level): 603, suggesting potential support if tested.
* GEX Overview:
* Puts dominate with 40.2%, showing hedging pressures.
* IVR (Implied Volatility Rank): 10.8, IVx avg 12.9% – lower volatility indicates slower moves.
Scalp and Swing Trade Suggestions
For Scalp Trade:
* Short Bias: If SPY fails to reclaim 607, consider a PUT scalp targeting 605.
* Entry: Below 607 with confirmation.
* Target: 605, 604.
* Stop-Loss: Above 608.50.
For Swing/Day Trade:
* Put Option:
* Strike: 605 PUT (Weekly Expiry).
* Entry: On rejection at 607-608 levels.
* Target: 602-604 zone.
* Stop-Loss: Above 609.
* Call Option:
* Strike: 608 CALL if SPY breaks and holds above 608.
* Target: 611-612 zone.
* Stop-Loss: Below 606.
Conclusion:
SPY is showing signs of weakness near resistance, with a short-term bearish setup. A rejection at 607-608 could trigger PUT opportunities toward 602-604. Keep an eye on the 603 HVL for potential support and monitor price action carefully.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own research and manage your risk before trading.
QQQ Near Key Resistance! Will Bulls Hold the Momentum? 1. Daily Chart Analysis (1D):
* Trend: QQQ is continuing its strong bullish trend and trading within an ascending channel.
* Support and Resistance Levels:
* Support: 533.21 (key level to hold the uptrend).
* Resistance: 539.15 (recent high and channel top).
* Momentum Indicators:
* MACD is bullish and expanding, suggesting upward momentum.
* Volume has been rising with the upward move, signaling strength in buying.
Outlook:
Bulls remain in control, but QQQ is testing the top of the channel. Watch for consolidation or rejection near 539.15.
2. 1-Hour Chart Analysis (1H):
* Trend: Strong intraday uptrend but showing initial signs of slowing.
* Support and Resistance Levels:
* Support: 533.21 (near-term intraday support).
* Resistance: 540 (psychological level and Gamma Wall).
* Momentum Indicators:
* MACD shows divergence; histogram is weakening, suggesting a potential pause or pullback.
* Volume is tapering slightly as price tests resistance.
Outlook:
A break above 540 could trigger another leg up. Failure to hold 533.21 may lead to a pullback toward 531.
3. GEX Analysis (Options Levels):
* Key Observations:
* Call Walls: 540 (2nd Call Wall) and 539 (highest positive Gamma/Call Resistance).
* Put Support: 531 (Gamma Put Wall).
* Options Oscillator: IVR at 12.9%, and Puts are only at 12.2% compared to heavy Calls at resistance.
Outlook:
With Gamma Resistance at 539 and 540, QQQ needs strong buying pressure to break higher. Weakness may lead to a test of 533–531.
4. Suggested Trade Setups:
Scalping Trade:
* Bullish Setup: Buy 540 Call for short scalps if QQQ breaks above 540 with strong volume.
* Bearish Setup: Buy 533 Put for a quick trade if price rejects 539 and fails below 533.21.
Swing/Day Trade:
* Bullish Setup: If QQQ closes above 540, consider a swing trade with 545 Calls expiring this week.
* Bearish Setup: If QQQ fails 533 and closes below, target the downside with 530 Puts for a day trade.
5. Key Notes:
* Bias: Bullish but cautious near resistance at 540.
* Levels to Watch:
* Breakout Level: 540.
* Pullback Support: 533–531.
* Trade Ideas: Follow volume and price action confirmation at these levels.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
IWM: Key Levels and Trade Setups for Dec. 17IWM Technical Analysis and GEX Overview
1D (Daily) Chart:
* Trend: IWM is showing signs of a bearish move as it continues to pull back from recent highs near 244.98. The price has fallen below the 9 EMA and is testing a support zone.
* Key Levels:
* Support: 231.88
* Resistance: 240.00 and 243.69
* MACD: Showing downward momentum with a bearish crossover; selling pressure persists.
* Volume: Volume has slightly increased, suggesting active participation as sellers dominate the trend.
1H (Hourly) Chart:
* Trend: The price is attempting to stabilize after a significant decline. It bounced off the 231.88 support and is testing the short-term resistance at 234.50.
* Key Levels:
* Immediate Support: 233.00
* Resistance: 235.00 and 237.00
* MACD: Mixed signals, showing potential for a bullish crossover if momentum increases.
* Possible Scenarios:
* A reclaim above 234.50 can target 235–237 in the near term.
* A failure to hold 233 could trigger a retest of 231.88 support.
GEX Analysis:
* Key Gamma Levels:
* 2nd PUT Wall: 237 (-1.45%)
* 3rd PUT Wall: 236 (-2.65%)
* 2nd CALL Wall: 235 (+72.27%)
* Highest Positive Gamma: 234 – This suggests resistance near 234 could create a ceiling unless bulls push through with strength.
* Support Gamma: Gamma exposure at 231–233 offers strong PUT support, likely preventing sharp declines.
* IVR: 25.4
* IVx Average: 23.5
* Call/Put Skew: CALLS 18.26% dominance, indicating bullish sentiment but cautious buyers.
Trade Suggestions:
Scalp Trades (Intraday):
* Bullish:
* Buy CALL: If price reclaims 234.50 – Target: 235.50
* Stop-Loss: 233.50
* Bearish:
* Buy PUT: If price rejects 234 – Target: 232.00
* Stop-Loss: 234.75
Swing/Day Trades:
* Bullish Setup:
* Buy CALL: Above 235 for a move towards 237–240.
* Expiration: 1–2 weeks
* Stop-Loss: 232.50
* Bearish Setup:
* Buy PUT: If price closes below 233 for a retest of 231.88–231.
* Expiration: 1–2 weeks
* Stop-Loss: 235.00
Outlook:
IWM remains under pressure, but the bounce from key support at 231.88 suggests a potential short-term reversal if resistance at 234.50 breaks. Traders should watch the gamma walls near 234–235 for confirmation of direction. The short-term bias remains neutral to bearish unless buyers reclaim resistance zones.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own research and manage risk accordingly.
SPY: what 's next?SPY: what 's next?
-Swinging reaccumulation in Inside bar candle pattern.
-Some important key level as image attached.
Wait for break!
Daily Watchlist (12/17/24) + Market NotesSPY - Failing attempts all over to reclaim highs and lows, so we are making new intraday Broadening Formations. The current one as seen in the chart, is looking to potentially head back through previous range if unable to continue to the upside pivots around 608.40 and 609. Given we have FOMC news Wednesday, I am not expecting too much to happen tomorrow as we are stuck in previous range and keep seeing failed attempts to reclaim pivots. Of course anything can happen, but I will strictly be watching individual names only for trades.
QQQ - New ATH again today. Nothing special to note besides the fact that tech is obviously leading things this week
DIA - Polar opposite of QQQ. Industrials getting slammed again this week as DIA puts in its 8th consecutive Daily lower low
IWM - Green today but similar to DIA
Overall market notes: Its clear that the market continues to see cyclical names move higher while more defensive and noncyclical names continue lower. In light of FOMC this week, it doesn't seem like any sectors are making too big of shifts besides financials finally seeing some buying again. Mainly just concerned with what SPY does this Wednesday as it seems like usual we are waiting for the news before making the next significant move.
WATCHLIST:
Bullish :
NASDAQ:PLTR - Potential 3-2U daily with a potential 3-1-2U 4HR to trigger the day. FTFC green, but week is inside with lots of room to go for either side to go 2
Bearish :
NYSE:UBER - Potential 2-1-2D Daily. Shooter inside day to put week 2D and confirm Q attempting to go 3 after hitting hammer revstrat upside magnitude earlier this Q
NYSE:PFE - Potential 3-2D daily to put week 3-2D. Weekly reversal occurred at Q exhaustion, but failed 2 upside attempts now. "Fail one side, target the other"
NYSE:PINS - Potential 3-2D Daily to confirm Weekly 3-2-2D in force with magnitude left
Notable winners from weekly watchlist (posted Sunday 12/15):
ETSY, RBLX, RKLB, OXY, WMT
Daily Watchlist (12/17/24) + Market NotesSPY - Failing attempts all over to reclaim highs and lows, so we are making new intraday Broadening Formations. The current one as seen in the chart, is looking to potentially head back through previous range if unable to continue to the upside pivots around 608.40 and 609. Given we have FOMC news Wednesday, I am not expecting too much to happen tomorrow as we are stuck in previous range and keep seeing failed attempts to reclaim pivots. Of course anything can happen, but I will strictly be watching individual names only for trades.
QQQ - New ATH again today. Nothing special to note besides the fact that tech is obviously leading things this week
DIA - Polar opposite of QQQ. Industrials getting slammed again this week as DIA puts in its 8th consecutive Daily lower low
IWM - Green today but similar to DIA
Overall market notes: Its clear that the market continues to see cyclical names move higher while more defensive and noncyclical names continue lower. In light of FOMC this week, it doesn't seem like any sectors are making too big of shifts besides financials finally seeing some buying again. Mainly just concerned with what SPY does this Wednesday as it seems like usual we are waiting for the news before making the next significant move.
WATCHLIST:
Bullish :
NASDAQ:PLTR - Potential 3-2U daily with a potential 3-1-2U 4HR to trigger the day. FTFC green, but week is inside with lots of room to go for either side to go 2
Bearish :
NYSE:UBER - Potential 2-1-2D Daily. Shooter inside day to put week 2D and confirm Q attempting to go 3 after hitting hammer revstrat upside magnitude earlier this Q
NYSE:PFE - Potential 3-2D daily to put week 3-2D. Weekly reversal occurred at Q exhaustion, but failed 2 upside attempts now. "Fail one side, target the other"
NYSE:PINS - Potential 3-2D Daily to confirm Weekly 3-2-2D in force with magnitude left
Notable winners from weekly watchlist (posted Sunday 12/15):
ETSY, RBLX, RKLB, OXY, WMT
$spy/dxy yieahh Something's gotta give - will the fed be the catalyst this month? Will we linger another quarter? Something and soon
Yieahhhh
Main reversal area The main weekly buy/sell area on the SPY chart is a critical zone where significant price movements often occur. This area is determined by key support and resistance levels, which are influenced by various factors, including economic indicators like the Money Supply M3.
Money Supply M3 (M3)
The Money Supply M3 is a broad measure of the total amount of money in circulation within an economy. It includes currency, deposits, and other liquid assets. Changes in M3 can indicate economic trends and influence market sentiment.
Current Analysis
High Risk: The current analysis suggests that the main buy/sell area is at very high risk. This could be due to several factors, such as:
Economic Uncertainty: Fluctuations in the Money Supply M3 can create uncertainty in the market, leading to higher volatility.
Political Events: Recent political events or announcements can impact investor confidence and market stability.
Market Sentiment: Negative sentiment among investors can lead to increased selling pressure, pushing prices down.
Implications for Traders
Caution Advised: Given the high-risk nature of the main buy/sell area, traders should exercise caution. It may be wise to wait for clearer signals before making significant trades.
Risk Management: Implementing strict risk management strategies, such as stop-loss orders, can help protect against potential losses.
Monitoring Indicators: Keeping an eye on other economic indicators and market sentiment can provide additional insights and help make more informed trading decisions.
