Eye SPY on the MoveLooking like spy is going to try to push back to 582 today, I’m keeping an eye on that level and I’m gonna look for the price action either up or down.
ETF market
Silver Miners Priced in SilverIs this falling knife finally safe to catch?
Deep Into The Abyss
below declining 36
month moving average
#silver #miners
TLT bullishLooks like its forming some triangle. Well, if it breaks out we will head for the backtest. But stoploss below last low.
$DIA Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for 10.24.24OK, so the bottom of the implied move for the week and the top of the implied move for the day overlap with a bear gap. That is a very interesting signal and something that I have never seen before. So, getting back into the implied move for the week could be a challenge, which is above 427.
Without being sad, the implied move for today is between 420 and 430. To the upside, we have the 30-minute average, and right above that, the 35 EMA. Those two levels need to be watched carefully because they will determine direction. If that 35 EMA (the red line) crosses underneath the 30-minute moving average, then we are bearish after a pretty good run. But, we can, of course, bounce here. When I say bounce, I am talking about the 35 EMA, but where futures stand right now, a crossover underneath is more likely at this point.
And at the very top of the implied move today, right there at the bottom of the implied move for the week, is that bear gap that we made yesterday. We bear-gapped and dropped away from the 35 EMA; that is 430 on the high side, 427 on the low side.
And then underneath us is that one-hour moving average, which did catch us almost to the penny yesterday. Below that, 420 is the bottom of the implied move if we do break that one-hour moving average with conviction.
It does look like we lost our 427 support that we made after PPI earlier in the month.
Let me know what you guys think and GL.
$DIA - PPI GAP CLOSED - interesting signals in DIADIA also gapped underneath the bottom of the implied move for the week, which was 427, and dropped from there. We saw 427 as support the day before, then we popped up to the 35 EMA, and then gapped down underneath the bottom of the implied move. That is a very interesting signal; we saw 427 as resistance, and then dropped underneath the 30-minute moving average, filling the bull gap from earlier in the month after PPI.
$IWM Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for 10.24.24OK, so in IWM, we had a big move this week, and one thing to definitely be aware of is that the 35 EMA is sitting right at the 30-minute moving average. If we get follow-through there, meaning that the 35 EMA crosses underneath and continues going down, then we are bearish in IWM. There's a lot of mixed signals, such as stochastic RSI being extremely oversold, but we also dipped underneath the bottom of the implied move for the week yesterday, as opposed to finding that level as support. We did make two down gaps today, and we've been seeing the 35 EMA as resistance for the entire week.
Above us, we have the 30-minute and the one-hour averages, as well as the 35 EMA and the down gap, all in one resistant area, which could be a tough level. At the very top of the trading range, we also have a down gap from Tuesday, and underneath us, we have the 50-day moving average, and just a little bit above that, we do have a small support at 218, which is where we saw a bounce yesterday. So, there's an interesting channel that we have between the 50-day moving average and the one-hour moving average.
The top of the implied move for today's contract is 222, and above that, 223 on Friday's contract. We also have the bottom of the implied move for the week at 221, which is right underneath that mess of resistance. It looks like at pre-market, we might be gapping up to that level, which would give us a gap and two gaps in the upper half of the implied move. Then, the implied move to the downside is 216 and 215 on Friday's contract, and that looks like a beautiful spread if we drop because that 50-day moving average is right above it.
$QQQ Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for 10.24.24OK, here in QQQ we bounced yesterday after a really big drop on the one-hour 200 moving average. 486 is the bottom of the implied move for the week, and that is also where we bounced. So, the two levels together caught us. Now, to the upside, we have the 30-minute 200 moving average. We did crush through that level without much support there and then dropped down to the one-hour average. Right above that, we have the 35 EMA on the 30-minute timeframe; those two levels are extremely important. If the 35 EMA crosses underneath the 30-minute moving average, then we are bearish. However, this can suggest a sufficient enough pullback, and we can bounce here. In which case, 494 is the top of the implied move, and 495 is the top of the implied move on Friday's contract. At the very top of the trading range, we do have the down gap from yesterday; the gap is at 496.
And to the downside, we do have that one-hour moving average which caught us yesterday, just underneath that 486, which is the bottom of the implied move for the whole week, based on how we closed last week. Underneath that, 484 is the implied move for the day; we have the 50-day moving average underneath that, and then 482 is the bottom of the implied move on Friday's contract. So, if we do drop, I would suggest 483/482 bull put spreads since that would be tucked away underneath the 50-day moving average.
SPY US500bounced of the second trend support, but the main trend has been broken for the third time, this signals weakness. waiting to see if it will recover the main trend at 587 or 575 is broken, each level will signal the next direction
$SPY Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for 10.24.24Alright guys, so I'm not making a video tonight. I lost my voice; I caught a cold or something like that. But, we are opening right at the bottom of the implied move for the week, which is 578, and we also closed right at the 30-minute moving average. So, if you look at that momentum—the 30-minute moving average momentum and the one-hour moving average momentum—that does have us trading slightly up today.
We have the 35 EMA above us, and at the very top of the implied move, we have the bear gap from yesterday. The top of the implied move is at 582 and 584 for the Friday contract. Remember, we have Amazon earnings today after hours.
Underneath the one-hour moving average on the downside, the bottom of the move is 573, and 572 on Friday's contract.
SPY Ready for a Reversal? Key Levels to Watch for Oct. 24,2024Key Resistance Levels:
580.29: This level has acted as a strong resistance point. If price approaches this level tomorrow, watch for a rejection for potential short setups.
584.44 - 585.45: If SPY breaks through 580.29, this higher range will be your next resistance zone. Look for reversal patterns if SPY reaches this zone for a possible fade or continuation trades.
Key Support Levels:
578.54 - 578.56: This support area could be crucial for a bounce. If SPY shows strength at this level, it may provide opportunities for long trades targeting resistance near 580.
574.41: A breakdown below this level could trigger a larger bearish move, opening room for short setups targeting the next lower support levels.
Trendline:
The downward sloping trendline is acting as dynamic resistance. A break above this line near the 580 region could signal the start of a bullish reversal, with potential to ride the momentum up to the 584 range.
Volume and Momentum:
Recent sell-off volume suggests sellers are still in control. Keep an eye on volume tomorrow—if the selling pressure continues, watch for breakdowns below key support levels.
MACD are showing early signs of recovery from oversold conditions, which might signal a potential short-term bounce.
My Thoughts for Tomorrow’s Trading:
For scalpers, focus on the 578-580 range for quick trades. A bounce at support or a rejection at resistance should provide clean entries and exits.
For swing traders, a break above 580 could indicate a short-term bullish reversal, targeting 584-585. On the downside, a breakdown below 574 could lead to further declines.
Keep your trades tight, especially with the market volatility. Use these key levels as a guide, and watch how price reacts around them for confirmation.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always perform your own research and manage risk appropriately. Trading involves risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
IWM call IWM got beat down to the 50day. looks like a huge buying opportunity especially with more rate cuts to come on the 7th gonna grab a few calls into the fair value gap for the 8th
URNM heads up at $53.55: Golden Genesis fib is decision pointNuclear stocks have been exploding (lol).
This ETF has just hit a major landmark.
Recently proven Golden Genesis fib here.
It is PROBABLE we orbit this a few times.
It is POSSILBE that we break and continue.
It is PLAUSIBLE for a lower high of the top.
$ 53.55 is the exact level of interest.
$ 49.43 is first support, 46.88 stronger.
$ 60.22 is next target if break and run.
See Related Ideas below for other Nuclears.
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Taking another LONG ride at 58.61 with TMF (oversold)It worked well last time (+11.9% in 7 trading days) and even better the time after that when I FORGOT to trade it - see my last idea for TMF for how that went. So I went long at 58.61 this morning. I'm not missing this train again.
I don't think rates are going up any time soon and neither does anyone else. I think this is a buy the rumor sell the news pullback that is part of a larger uptrend as part of this rate normalization regime by the Fed.
I also think we are getting back to a normal world where the bond market is not so highly correlated with stocks. Given that I think the market may take a little rest this week, it seems like a good time to get in on TMF. Will add more if it stays oversold and will sell lots when they become profitable.
As always, this is market edutainment and a play by play of my trading, not investment advice, and should not be taken as such. Trade at your own risk.
SPY Trading Plan 10/23ATR range for today is low of 576.82. And a high of 586.39. Exit at first target 581.01. Runner to 583.27. Set up for max loss.
SPY showing bulls returning. next target at 588 soon!strong cumulative volume delta signals buyers remain in control after this selloff. all these sell orders getting heavily bought up. I'm looking for continuation higher into end of Oct to 588 target.
After that, I'll be vigilant for another pullback to 578 zone before we go higher to 591 and onward to 605 primary weekly cycle target
Volatility in Consumer Discretionary driven by AMZN and TSLA.The heavy presence of AMZN and TSLA in Consumer Discretionary makes the sector more volatile. However, I don't see an issue with the trend. Buyers may view levels up to $192.55 as a buying opportunity, especially with AMZN’s high potential from its broad range of innovative ventures. Although TSLA raises some concerns, AMZN could act as a balancing force, or TSLA might follow AMZN’s lead. My price target for the fund is around $212.55, aligning with the 1.618 Fibonacci level, and AMZN could reach Wall Street's $220 target, which I find reasonable.
Just in caseI'm accumulating this, I feel a hard corrections is coming. If it drops I'll buy more. I need some hedge on my portfolio.
Index struggles at Fibonacci resistance amid concerns.The index appears unable to break through its Fibonacci resistance, which is expected given the prolonged impulsive trend and upcoming elections, alongside rising 'no landing' fears. Earnings reports are solid, and with financials (XLF) looking strong, I'm not concerned. The financial sector often serves as a leading indicator for the broader index, so I view the current 2-3 week stagnation as normal. I still see the biggest opportunity in the AI narrative, and will look to buy during pullbacks.
Huge inverted head and shoulders in bonds.I don't track bonds all that much, but as a general rule when I see scores of people all talking about the same thing (Which they do not normally talk about), I suspect that idea might have gotten too popular for its own good and look to see if there are any obvious fade patterns.
I looked at TLT a while ago and seen the possible head and shoulders. Have just been waiting for a suitable capitulation to support to enter.
Long now.
SHORT $VOO (I'm buying SPXU SQQQ & TZA)MODs have suggested that I provide more detail about the picks I make.
Sorry. I'm not as verbose as y'all, and I don't like things to be complicated.
My trading plan is very simple.
I buy or sell at top & bottom of parallel channels.
I confirm when price hits Fibonacci levels.
Bonus if a TTM Squeeze in in play.
I hold until target is reached or end of year, when I can book a loss.
So...
Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing.
Price at top of channel (period 52 39 & 26)
Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at overbought level
VBSM is spiked positive
Impulse MACD is extreme high
Price at Fibonacci level
In at $536.19
Target is $526 or channel bottom
Stop loss is $537
A Slow & Choppy Week!This week has been soo choppy and I am tired of looking at it! Its not yet clear if we want to fall past 577 towards 574 and find support there on SPY, or if we want to continue to form a new order block and then break out to continue our bullish run.
Based on the candlesticks thus far and looking at the fair value gaps (FVGs) formed on the daily and weekly, I believe that price action has the potential to continue to drop to as low as 563 on SPY. It could take us a few weeks to get there but its possible.
We are only a few weeks away from election and officially naming our new US President! Due to the anticipation of the results, we could see fear being pumped into the market as near closer to Nov 5.
As of right now I am waiting to see what how we close this week. Trading the chop can be challenging, but also possible with the correct strategy.
TLT - Risk Off Is Dead (For Now At Least)As risk on gravy train continues post FED interest rate cut 🚞, it is certainly worth noting that risk off bonds are becoming significantly bearish.
Notice that TLT 20 year bond ETF has seen a significant failure printing a 3 wave pattern with a slightly higher high to then collapse back down.
Also notice that it is a failure through the 20 month MA.
And this is printing a very bearish Evening Star Pattern.
I say "very" because the current candle is printing a significant bearish engulf of previous bullish candles.
Overall this is a very bearish look and I think this has a reasonable chance of re-testing the lows to print a Wyckoff ST Secondary Test.
Its not impossible that there could be another wave down if US government debt falls further out of market favour.
That is less likely I would suggest but never say never 🧐.
Not advice
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-23 : Gap/Breakaway PatternToday's Pattern suggests the SPY will attempt to move higher in a potential Gap/Breakaway mode.
I read this as a potential for an opening price gap (likely higher) and trending upward throughout most of today.
I will point out that I believe the QQQ will not follow this same pattern. The expectation I drew earlier with my SPY Cycle Patterns suggests the QQQ will attempt to consolidate today - possibly moving slightly downward.
This can, and often does, happen when we get a divergence between the SPY & QQQ.
Gold & Silver appear to be moving into my expected Rally phase over the next 4+ trading days. I believe Gold and Silver will attempt to rally about 2.5% to 3.5% higher before reaching a peak near 10-29~10-30.
Bitcoin is consolidating in the Phase #4 Excess Phase peak pattern - just as I suggested. Watch for support to form near 65,600 or slightly higher. I believe this congestion phase will last until after November 2-4 - be aware.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
