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U.S. Aggregate T-Bond Market. Fears & Greed AwakeningStocks heavily sold off Thursday (again), with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) tumbling nearly 500 points, as investors’ fears over a recession surfaced. Some fresh data stoked fears over a possible recession and the notion that the Federal Reserve could be too late to start cutting interest rates. Initial jobless claims rose the most since August 2023. And the ISM manufacturing index, a barometer of factory activity in the U.S., came in at 46.8%, worse than expected and a signal of economic contraction. After these releases, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 4% for the first time since February. These weak data releases come a day after central bank policymakers chose to keep rates at the highest levels in two decades, when Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave investors some hope by signaling a September rate cut could be on the table. Labor situations is on the radars also, as fresh unemployment data expected on Friday, August 2. The main technical chart is for U.S. Core Aggregate T-Bond Market ETF (AGG), in total return format/ With 11782 total number of holdings, AGG is US bond market in miniature. Fears & Greed Awakening. 👉 VIX and VXN are sitting closer to their important levels, 20 and 25 points respectively. 👉 VIX to 50-Day VIX SMA ratio has recently jumped above 1.40, and this is the biggest level over the past twelve months. 👉 VXN to 50-Day VXN SMA ratio has recently jumped above 1.40, and this is the biggest level over the past twelve months. 👉 Difference in 20-day stock and bond returns slumped almost to Zero. Technical observations 👉 AGG technical graph indicates on huge developing Reversed Head-and-Shoulders, with 2-year highs breakthrough. 👉 The nearest target could be considered is multi top, around $108 mark. 👉 In mid- to long term it could be good for stock indices and markets, despite of possible turbulence and seismic activity.
AMEX:AGG
by Pandorra
Opening (IRA): TQQQ Sept 20th 63 Monied Covered Call... for a 59.60 debit. Comments: High IVR/high IV at 68.7/63.1%. Selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Additionally, adding at strikes/break evens better than what I've current got on (the August 16th 73 covered calls; break even 70.80). Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 59.60 Max Profit: 3.40 ROC at 50% Max: 5.70% 50% Max: 1.70 ROC at 50% Max: 2.85% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; roll the short call out for duration on side test.
NASDAQ:TQQQLong
by NaughtyPines
$SPY HyperInflation returns AMEX:SPY return of hyper inflation will we see AMEX:SPY my high target of $640.30 or will it die off around $540.70 give or take after we reach those highs we will see pullback back down to $395 if buyers fail to step up to show support we'll be testing 2008 lows back around $285 eventually down to $200 then $86 then $24 (WW3 scenario / end of world scenario/ near default) As bears we've done our job to short squeeze it to highs as news hit about Trump wall st bought up the rumors let's see how long we'll extend the rally. Thinking we got a bit more to go before we short completely after the rate cuts come around fall time you'll see a mass sell off as banks shut down.
AMEX:SPYLong
by calmstrades
Understanding The Basics Of AI/Inference Engine ConstructionRecently, there has been a lot of discussion related to my SPY Cycle Patterns and how they work. In short, without disclosing proprietary code/quants, I built an inference engine based on Fibonacci, GANN, and Tesla theories. Part of this inference engine is to identify the highest probable outcome related to the patterns. This is not rocket-science. This is the same process your brain does when determining when and what to trade. The only difference is I'm doing a bunch of proprietary calculations/quants related to data and price theory in the background, then the inference engine determines the best, most likely outcome. Take a few minutes to watch this video and try to understand the difference between static and dynamic modeling. Again, my objective is to help as many traders as possible. My Plan Your Trade videos are my opinions based on my skills, knowledge, and proprietary modeling systems/tools. None of my tools are 100% accurate all the time - nothing is. But, I do believe the quality of information and instructional information I provide is invaluable to most traders. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by BradMatheny
2
VTI bounces overnight $284 to $287 (4hr chart)MODs have suggested that I provide more detail about the picks I make. Sorry. I'm not as verbose as y'all, and I don't like things to be complicated. My trading plan is very simple. I buy or sell at top & bottom of parallel channels. I confirm when price hits Fibonacci levels. Bonus if a TTM Squeeze in in play. I hold until target is reached or end of year, when I can book a loss. So... Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing. Price at bottom of channels (period 100 52 39 & 26) Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at oversold level VBSM is negative Price at near Fibonacci level In at $284 Target is $287 or channel top Stop loss is $283
AMEX:VTILong
by chancethepug
LSE:SMH (VANECK SEMICONDUCTOR ETF) LongAsset Class: Indices Income Type: Daily Symbol: SMH Trade Type: Long Trends: Short Term: Up Long Term: UP Set-Up Parameters: Entry: 42.330 Stop: 41.930 TP 44.320 (5:1) Trade idea: Retest of 4H demand zone formed by a drop-base-rally. TP set at the nearest SZ with a 5:1 risk-reward ratio. The RSI is oversold. !!Be aware of pending Economic Reports. If price is within 20 pips of proximal value at time of major impact report, then Confirmation entry. Trade management: **When price hits 1:1 or T1, consider moving stop to entry in case of pullback. **Disclaimer**: The trading strategies, ideas, and information shared are for educational and informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities, currencies, or financial instruments. You should do your own research or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions. The author assumes no responsibility for any losses incurred from following these trading ideas.
LSE:SMHLong
by MESHANL
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-25: Rally111 PatternHappy Friday, Today is potentially the start of a moderate rally phase in the SPY/QQQ headed toward my predicted peak level near October 30-31. Although this week has had lots of rotation, we've seen the markets hold up pretty well. Tesla surprised with earnings recently after Boeing and other issues prompted a bit of panic selling. My research suggests the SPY/QQQ will attempt to move a bit higher over the next 3-4 days - attempting to setup a peak just before the election. The 3-4 days prior to the election are likely to be very volatile as liquidity dries up. Traders need to stay keenly aware of risks over the next 15+ days - even after the election day. Whatever happens on election day, we are likely to see some moderate level of unrest and challenges related to who won. I believe the current election will be the most watched and validated election in US history. Everyone is watching for errors and shenanigans this time. As traders, our #1 job is to protect capital. That is why I suggested traders more to 80-85% CASH over the past 2+ weeks. There is no reason to be engaged in this market at full allocation levels when I expect the markets to become extremely volatile (and potentially prompt a flash-crash type of event). Remember, lack of liquidity means extreme price volatility. Gold and Silver are moving into another rally phase. Get ready to see Gold above $2800. Bitcoin is still consolidating - just as I expected. This is the time to play it smart. Trade smaller allocation levels and prepare to hedge against risk factors over the next 2-3 weeks. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
Gold vs Commodities: Monitoring Relative Strength in Hard AssetsIntroduction: The commodity sector spans various areas, including energy, agriculture, livestock, and metals. However, focusing on the most promising areas can lead to more effective investment strategies. One key ratio to monitor is gold AMEX:GLD versus a broader commodities basket (DBC). This ratio is especially relevant for those interested in hard assets, as it highlights where strength lies in the commodity space. Currently, this ratio favors gold as the stronger performer. Analysis: Relative Strength: The GLD-to-DBC ratio offers critical insights into the relative performance of gold versus other commodities. Gold has been outperforming the broader commodity basket, indicating its resilience as a hard asset. Technical Pattern: Earlier this year, the ratio broke out of a rounding bottom pattern, signaling a bullish trend in favor of gold. Even before this breakout, the trend was clear through a series of higher highs and higher lows, reinforcing the strength of gold relative to other commodities. Gold’s Performance: Gold remains near its all-time highs, while other commodities continue to lag behind. This highlights gold’s resilience in the face of broader market uncertainties. Conclusion: Gold’s resilience compared to other commodities makes it a standout performer in the current market environment. The recent breakout in the GLD-to-DBC ratio and the continued pattern of higher highs and higher lows support the bullish case for gold. Traders focused on hard assets should monitor this ratio closely to gauge potential shifts in strength. What’s your outlook on gold versus other commodities? Share your insights below! Charts: (Include relevant charts showing the GLD-to-DBC ratio, the rounding bottom pattern, and the higher highs and higher lows trend) Tags: #Gold #Commodities #HardAssets #GLD #DBC #TechnicalAnalysis
AMEX:GLD
by Richtv_official
SPY scalping tomorrow Oct. 25, 2024For SPY scalping tomorrow and analyzing the close for the week 1. Analysis: Trend: SPY is currently trading in a clear downward channel, with resistance around 580 and immediate support near 577.99. The downward trendlines suggest continued pressure to the downside unless it breaks out above resistance. Key Levels: Resistance: 580.00, 581.22 Support: 577.99 (short-term), 574.12 (stronger support zone) Volume: There's been a visible spike in volume, suggesting heightened interest around current levels. The question for tomorrow is whether this will translate into further selling or a potential bounce. Scalping Strategy: Bearish Bias: Given the downtrend, I'd lean toward a bearish bias until we see a decisive break of the upper resistance at 580. This is where many traders may anticipate selling pressure, especially with lower highs being printed. Entries: Look for a possible retest of resistance at 580. You could consider entering a short position if this level holds as resistance and the price starts rejecting this area with selling volume. If price breaks above 580, wait for confirmation before reversing to a bullish stance. Exits/Targets: If short from around 580, consider targeting 577.99 as the first exit, followed by 574.12 if weakness continues. Watch for signs of consolidation or potential bounces around 574, which could lead to reversals intraday. Closing Thoughts for the Week: If SPY continues to trade within this descending channel, it's likely to test lower support levels like 574 or even 570. However, if there's any significant news or a surprise buying surge, watch for a potential upside break of the 580 level, which could shift sentiment more bullish into the end of the week. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. Trading carries risks, and it's essential to do your own research or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
Opening (IRA): USO Nov 15th 67 Covered Call... for a 65.26 debit. Comments: Adding a rung at strike prices better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against long stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 65.26 Max Profit: 1.74 ($174) ROC at Max: 2.67% 50% Max: .87 ROC at 50% Max: 1.33% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max/roll out the short call on side test.
AMEX:USOLong
by NaughtyPines
Parabolic SAR Technical IndicatorParabolic SAR Technical Indicator 📜 The Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse), first introduced in 1978, is a technical indicator used to identify potential trend reversals in financial markets. It is represented as a series of dots placed above or below the asset’s price. The key concept behind the Parabolic SAR is that the price follows a parabolic movement until a trend reversal occurs. 📊 When the SAR points are below the price, it indicates an uptrend. Conversely, when the points are above the price, it suggests a downtrend. If the price touches or surpasses the SAR, a reversal signal is generated, and the dots switch position. This can help traders identify potential changes in market direction. 📈 This indicator is most effective in trending markets. However, in sideways or directionless markets, the Parabolic SAR tends to generate false signals, which can lead to confusion. Therefore, its best application occurs in well defined bullish or bearish markets. 🧮 Functionality and Mathematics ▪️ The Parabolic SAR falls under the category of trend-following indicators. Unlike oscillators, which try to predict price changes, focuses on confirming the current market direction, helping traders capitalize on extended market moves. 🤖 Mathematically, is based on a formula that adjusts its value according to price and time. The calculation incorporates two key variables 1️⃣ EP Extreme Point🟰 The highest or lowest point reached during the current trend. 2️⃣ AF Acceleration Factor🟰 Starts at a low value, like 0.02, and increases in fixed increments each time the price reaches a new high or low. 🚀 In essence, the Parabolic SAR measures the trend’s acceleration, dynamically adjusting its values to follow the price. 👨‍🏫 Considerations ▪️ Parabolic SAR is part of traditional technical analysis and is widely mentioned in J. Welles Wilder’s book New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. While useful for identifying trends, it is less effective in markets where the price consolidates, as it tends to generate more false positives, which can create confusion. ▪️ Other examples of trend following indicators include moving averages simple or exponential and the MACD. 🧐 Have you heard of this indicator? Which do you consider an essential one?
NASDAQ:TSLL
by Mariofxtr
UNG to $60 ...... is the idea...... UNG is the way to play Nat Gas. Nat Gas traders fir under production costs at $6.5 to $7.5 per BTU - UNG at $6.5 per BTU will trade above $60 Nat Gas is cyclical, it moves in 4 year intervals, perfect to start the move Up now. Please research my findings. Cyclicality of the NAt Gas Market Nat Gas is industry's energy Nat Gas is the cleanest form of fossil fuel energy. Nat Gas goes for $67 per BTU in Europe, the USA needs to be selling Nat Gas. Many other positive things about NAT GAS and its required expansion. We need Nat Gas and plenty of it.
AMEX:UNG
by imcnf5c4ff
2
TLT - Golden CrossThe Golden Cross is the Creme de Crop when it comes to longer minded individuals. I'm liking this 20Y bond ETF for the reasons listed on the chart. . . . . . . . . . . . Mark 8:36 - For what does it profit a man to gain the whole world and forfeit his soul? Acts 4:11-12 - This Jesus is the stone that was rejected by you, the builders, which has become the cornerstone. And there is salvation in no one else, for there is no other name under heaven given among men by which we must be saved.”
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by rhall6451
1