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Opening (IRA): SMH October 18th 220 Covered StraddleComments: Third highest 30-day IV (46.1%) on my options highly liquid ETF board behind BITO and TQQQ. There are two different aspects to this trade, the first being the 220 monied covered call with the short call at the -75 delta. I had to route this as two separate trades and got filled for covered call aspect for a 213.35 debit. The same strike short put is at the +21 delta strike, I got filled for a 5.05 credit. Metrics: Buying Power Effect: 428.30 Break Even: 213.35 for the covered call; 214.95 for the short put Max Profit: 6.65 (for the monied covered call) + 5.05 (for the short put) = 11.70 ROC at Max: 2.73% 50% Max: 5.85 ROC at 50% Max: 1.37% Generally speaking, I'll look to take profit at 50% max; otherwise, I'll look to roll out the short straddle as a unit to maintain net delta at or below +50 (100 delta for the shares, -75 for the short call, + 25 for the short put).
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by NaughtyPines
Fibonacci/Gann & 3-6-9 Chart Play: The TOP may be IN I was trying to identify if/how the market may be topping in relation to the post-election rally phase and started with a blank Daily SPY chart. After drawing a few line of the chart, I started with an idea that Broad market pullbacks may be the key to identifying/timing market expansion phases (coupled with a bit of logic). This video highlights this theory going back to 2018 and examines a number of price pullback trends as well as Fibonacci Timing structures related to Fibonacci Price Expansion blocks. I think you will find this very useful as I continue to delve deeper into the 3-6-9 structure, polarity shifts (binary shifts) and trying to unlock the secrets of price trends/extensions. Hope you enjoy... Oh.. and it looks like the US markets are about to top if my research is correct. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
4
BOIL from $8.86 to $10MODs have suggested that I provide more detail about the picks I make. Sorry. I'm not as verbose as y'all, and I don't like things to be complicated. My trading plan is very simple. I buy or sell at top & bottom of parallel channels. I confirm when price hits Fibonacci levels. Bonus if a TTM Squeeze in in play. I hold until target is reached or end of year, when I can book a loss. So... Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing. Price at bottom of channel (period 52 39 & 26) Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at oversold level VBSM is negative Impulse MACD is flat crossing over to the downside Price at near Fibonacci level In at $8.86 Target is $10 or channel top Stop loss is $8.63
AMEX:BOILLong
by chancethepug
WHAT'S FLOWING; ETFS EDITIONUR (Upper Left): Strong upward momentum with a long position signal, indicating a potential breakout above resistance. IJR, IWN (Top Row): Both charts show upward movement above key levels, suggesting bullish sentiment. Each appears to be breaking out from consolidation zones, with recent price action pushing above the VAH and Ichimoku support. DGRO (Top Right): A mixed sentiment, with a pullback toward Ichimoku support and volume-based resistance, indicating potential consolidation or a cautious buy signal at lower levels. RSP, SPLV (Bottom Left): Positive momentum with price moving into higher bands, indicating upward trends. SPLV shows strong support around the Ichimoku cloud, suggesting resilience and a bullish sentiment . IUSV, SCHV (Bottom Row): Both charts display strong bullish momentum with prices moving above resistance zones, supported by volume and Ichimoku cloud patterns, suggesting a potential rally continuation.
AMEX:IJR
by moneymagnateash
$10 by June 2024It's 2024, 3 years since people received free money from our government, people already started draining their savings accounts. Everything got much more expensive. Rising auto loan, credit card, mortgage delinquencies. We already had crypto pumps begging this year and these pumps were much smaller than 2021. I don't think people have money to pump anything anymore. The recent GME and AMC pumps were also small compared to 2021 pumps. I think time is about to come for the entire crypto industry. Let's be honest, it's a pure game. I'm long BITI. Current position: 5000 BITI shares.
AMEX:BITILong
by iTheOne
6
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-7 : Rally Pattern DayGood morning, Although I would argue the post-election rally may already be moving into exhaustion, the SPY Cycle Patterns suggest today is a Rally pattern in Trending mode. So, I expect the markets to attempt a bit of a carryover rally phase today - moving into a Counter-trend Rally pattern tomorrow. That counter-trend rally pattern suggests the markets will try to find a peak/top and roll downward into the close of the week. Gold and Silver appear to be basing with a potential for another move downward today - retesting recent lows. Based on my estimate related to Fibonacci Time Cycles, I believe Metals is looking for a momentum base to rally off of. Thus, I suggest traders prepare for a big move upward in Gold and Silver over the next 4 to 7+ trading days. Bitcoin is still in a Bullish trending phase after breaking into new highs. Today, I spent quite a bit of time going over the Excess Phase Peak pattern related to how the price is trending and what to expect. It is critical to understand that the markets will move away from this post-election relief rally phase over the next week or so. Ultimately, what has changed is that we have a new POTUS with new policies and objectives in 2025. Right now, everything is still pretty much the same as it was last week. Volatility is still high and I urge traders to stay cautious. The time for adding more liquidity will come after November 25-30. Remember, the number 1 rule for traders is to Protect Capital. You can still trade, just trade much smaller allocation levels for now. We are about to move into a period of moderate consolidation. Sit back and wait out this sideways trend. The real opportunity will come after November 25-30. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2
TLT UpWhy am I still expecting TLT to rise? Let’s start with the fundamental reasons. After the election, when we focus on Trump’s four main economic directions, it’s hard to think anything other than that we’re in for inflation growth, an increase in interest rates, and so on. Specifically: 1. A 10-20% tariff on imported goods, and a sudden 60% on goods imported from China. This naturally points to price increases for goods, and we’ve already seen this kind of policy back in 2016. However, in the past eight years, many geopolitical perceptions have changed, and the US position in the global market is substantially different from what it was eight years ago. Some restrictions on certain types of goods might be possible, but applying tariffs across all goods? - I don’t believe so. 2. Income tax reduction. What does this mean? Yes, it’s a realistic but very low-weighted plan. In line with populism, there will be a reduction in taxes, but it can hardly have a significant impact on the overall US budget deficit. 3. Deporting immigrants. To some extent, it will have a minimal effect on the labor market. It’s important to note that immigrants’ labor is not generally secured within the US labor market anyway, and it’s unlikely that US residents would have greatly expanded opportunities in their place. 4. Growth in energy production volumes. It would be redundant to write long paragraphs on how this will have a positive impact on prices. These four points sum up the populist promises. In another reality, the US Federal Reserve is successfully battling inflation; abnormally high rates only harm issuers, while European spreads are reaching historical highs. After the 1980s, Bond Vigilantes might be set for a return, which would pose significant problems for US Treasuries. We’re waiting for the Fed’s press conference today.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by gorgevorgian
$SPY up to $614 as final blow off top move?I initially thought we'd see a move down of 5%-10% pre election. I played the move through AMEX:UVXY calls. We didn't end up seeing the full move play out that I had expected, but was able to capitalize on the move down yesterday when AMEX:UVXY was above $30. I sold all my calls yesterday as I expected downside to only be possible prior to Nov 1. So far, it's looking like that was a good call as we're starting to see a bounce today. Now that we've in November, I expect a bullish move to play out through the election and after for a final blow off top. I think it's likely that we see a move to $614 over the next two weeks. I'll be buying $600C today for 11/15 to try to capitalize on this move higher. Let's see if it plays out.
AMEX:SPYLong
by benjihyam
13
Drill, baby, drill: U.S. Oil & Gas ETFPolitical changes often bring uncertainty to the market, but letting politics dictate your investment strategy is rarely wise. Across the past century, American markets have weathered a wide range of political shifts, from conservative to progressive agendas, yet the long-term trajectory has remained upward. Regardless of who's in office, the fundamentals of investing stay the same: identify and invest in quality businesses with strong growth potential. Many stocks in my portfolio, for example, have the resilience to perform well no matter the administration—be it Trump, Kamala, or anyone else. Rather than reacting to political outcomes, focus on strengthening your own financial position. Prioritize building your income-generating skills, saving, and investing wisely over time. This approach enables you to grow your wealth regardless of the political landscape. Ultimately, you have the most control over your own financial decisions. The U.S. free market system continues to foster innovation and productivity, which drive long-term growth. As long as that system remains, businesses and individuals will find ways to thrive, making steady and thoughtful investing the smartest strategy for your future. Little note before you read the report: This report provides a general overview of the potential impact of the 2024 U.S. election on the Oil & Gas sector. Given the uncertainty around which specific companies will benefit most, a prudent strategy may be to invest in an ETF that provides broad exposure to the industry. The iShares U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF, for example, could be a strong option. While the ETF may adjust its holdings in response to changing market conditions, predicting specific winners within the sector remains challenging. But in general terms, I think the victory of Trump will benefit the sector. Overview The outlook for the oil and gas sector is complex amid shifting policy trends. The recent focus on expanding oil and gas production, championed by Trumps political slogan drill, baby, drill, signals a potential for increased energy supply. Initiatives such as opening new drilling sites in Alaska are likely to drive higher energy production, potentially reducing costs for consumers. However, this development may present mixed results for energy companies that have thrived on high oil prices over the past few years. High oil prices in recent years, peaking in 2022, have significantly bolstered profitability for companies like ExxonMobil. With oil prices currently around $70 per barrel—still within profitable margins—these companies continue to benefit. However, increased production aimed at reducing prices could compress these profit margins, even though rising production volumes might offset some of this impact by boosting overall revenue. Investment Insights and Sector Strategy While the outlook for traditional oil producers remains cautiously optimistic, there could be short-term buying opportunities if oil prices experience significant dips in the coming years. In this context, we expect profitability and revenues to stabilize or even rise due to the continued relevance and importance of the industry. The following investment ideas offer alternative ways to capitalize on the oil and gas sector's anticipated growth without relying directly on commodity price gains. 1. Natural Gas and Pipeline Companies Pipeline companies, especially those focused on natural gas, present a compelling option. These companies generate revenue from transporting oil and gas, making them less sensitive to fluctuations in commodity prices. Moreover, deregulation could stimulate additional infrastructure projects, creating further growth potential. Key players to consider include: • Enterprise Product Partners (EPD): A robust choice in the pipeline sector, with the stability of consistent dividends and a well-diversified revenue stream. • Energy Transfer (ET): Offering a high dividend yield of 7.81%, though with less consistency in dividend growth. • Kinder Morgan (KMI): Another notable pipeline company with a strong track record in the industry. Each of these companies offers potential growth alongside dividend income, making them attractive for income-focused investors seeking exposure to energy infrastructure. 2. Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) For a unique angle on oil and gas, Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) is worth monitoring. TPL holds extensive land assets in Texas (approximately 880,000 acres) and benefits from royalty interests on oil and gas production. This model allows TPL to earn revenue without bearing production costs, yielding exceptionally high profit margins. TPL is part of the The iShares U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF, representing at the moment 4.22%. Key highlights of TPL’s financial performance include: • Gross Profit Margin: 93% • Operating Margin: 79% • Net Profit Margin: 66% • 2023 Oil and Gas Royalties: $350 million, representing 56.5% of revenue • Free Cash Flow Growth: 10-year CAGR of 30% • Revenue Growth: 10-year CAGR of 31.98% TPL also maintains a strong financial position, with $1.2 billion in shareholder equity, $900 million in cash, and minimal debt, allowing substantial capital returns to shareholders. Though not a consistent dividend payer, TPL has a track record of special dividends and stock buybacks. For long-term investors, this stock offers compelling growth potential in a high-margin, low-risk model within the oil and gas sector. Conclusion While traditional oil stocks remain solid investments, diversifying into pipeline companies and royalty-based businesses like TPL may offer better risk-adjusted returns under current and anticipated market conditions. Investors should consider these alternatives to balance exposure to oil and gas while potentially mitigating the risk of fluctuating energy prices.
CBOE:IEOLong
by marc_kober
$SPY November 7, 2024.AMEX:SPY November 7, 2024. 60 Minutes. For the rise 567.89 to 591.93 holding 580 levels is crucial for uptrend to continue. 580 is the top of gap for the fall as marked in red box. Hence if i take the rise from 574.69 to 591.93 581 levels is important in smaller time frame. I need AMEX:SPY to close above 593 for a target 640+ My views are same from September. Holding 540 we are in a big move towards 640+ Now holding 565-570 is important on daily for that move. The oscillator divergence marked yellow rectangle played out well in this move. I expect some sideways today so that 9,21 averages can catch up. All moving averages are near. So, after this consolidation one more big move is expected. I had always posted I wanted to go long above 585 only. And it gapped around that area yesterday and held on too. So now 581-585 becomes important zone to watch.
AMEX:SPY
by RiderTrader
2
Qqq idea Fibonacci From the major correction we had by the end of 2021 and that lasted nearly one year. Fibonacci retracement extended levels have acted as resistance as shown . On the figure . The 1.61 has had the price rejected once it is common for the price to slightly go above the level but if the week is ends below it , it would mean the resistance rejected the price and it could move down from here . If the price is kept above this level for the remaining of the week it would mean the breakout is sustainable and the resistance is broke . I am bearish since trump won the elections money could be rotated to energy ,financials ,industrials stocks . That’s just my opinion
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Todopoderoso
Mid To long term projection of the SPYGiven Donald Trump's recent victory, the market has felt an optimistic boost. This excitement, could be enough to overcome the current economical warnings that have been prevalent in the previous months. It's impossible to know if these excitements will be enough to send the market into a new and strong rally into overextended territories, or if the market will continue to complain about unaffordable housing, and sustenance. The future is always an unknown variable, however random variables do tend to follow their own distributions to a certain degree. It is always possible for exceptions to occur which prompt price action to get excited at already expensive prices. However, it is intelligent to always take a degree of caution when purchasing expensive securities which are still increasing in price. In these scenarios I suggest waiting for price corrections before purchasing and purchase in small amounts as price decreases to be able to purchase more at lower prices aka cost average. Given Trumps popularity, it's possible that people will become optimistic about the near future, however Trump still has a lot of rivals, which will stop at nothing to fulfill their agenda. The president will be faces with many new challenges these coming 4 years. I wish him the best of luck as he writes history once more. May God bless the future of America, its allies and it people. It's time to see the world change once more.
AMEX:SPY
by DarkMessiah777