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The US Treasury 2-year and 10-year spread never lies.The US Treasury 2-year and 10-year spread never lies. Of course, this is based on historical data, as whenever the spread between the 2-year and 10-year bonds turns positive from a negative value, it is typically followed by stagnation in the bond market. However, alongside this, we cannot ignore several important factors: 1. "Trump's trade", as such, did not take place, and the market considers it overestimated, showing no desire to buy more. 2. Inflation and the resulting monetary policy continue to create unpredictability. 3. The ongoing escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war and the overall geopolitical situation are not conducive to further growth. 4. The potential wave of protectionism, which would ignore soft fiscal policies. 5. ... 6. ... 7. ...
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by gorgevorgian
SPY Double Top Triple Top?Possible Double or Triple Top on AMEX:SPY ? The SPY has been hitting the same resistance level of 600.80 for the past two days. First, on November 24, 2024, and again on November 25, 2024, before pulling back. This repeated testing of the same level raises the question: are we forming a double or triple top? Will the SPY fail to break through this level, or will it finally push past it? Only time will tell, but we should be aware of this potential technical pattern. Double Top Two consecutive peaks: Two highs occur near the same price level, with a moderate decline between them. Valley in between: A noticeable low forms between the two peaks, which serves as a support level. Neckline: A line connecting the valley lows forms the neckline. Breakdown: The price breaks below the neckline, confirming the Double Top pattern. Volume: Decreasing volume on the second peak and increasing volume on the breakdown.
AMEX:SPY
by Paul_Hodls
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-26 : Inside-BreakawayAs we move closer to the Thanksgiving holiday, I want to remind traders that low liquidity is likely to drive extreme price swings throughout the markets this week and next. Many traders are already "taking a break" from the markets right now - so please trade with CAUTION. Trade smaller positions and don't get trapped in anything you can't handle. The markets will close on Thursday and have a half day on Friday. That means we are going to go about 3.5 days with no trading into early next week. Are you ready for that? If not, get into a position where you can settle in through the holidays and relax. Come back to the markets on Monday/Tuesday next week. I expect the SPY/QQQ to attempt to reject near the recent highs (yesterday) and for Gold and Silver to move into a bullish recovery phase after yesterday's selling pressure. The one thing I would warn trades about today is the potential for a low-liquidity BREAKDOWN in price for the SPY/QQQ as well as Gold & Silver. If there is some financial (US Treasuries) or breakdown event that prompts the markets into some type of Flash Crash - everything will go down. I'm not saying this IS going to happen - but it COULD happen. So, be prepared just in case. Bitcoin is struggling to find any support throughout this downtrend. I suspect the $72-$77k level may be the final support for BTCUSD. Buckle up. We could be in for a wild ride. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
4
How Black Friday Could Impact the Stock Market in 2024How Black Friday Could Impact the Stock Market in 2024 Black Friday, one of the most anticipated and significant days in retail, falls on the Friday following Thanksgiving in the United States. This day is considered an early indicator of the success of the Christmas shopping season and can serve as a trigger for the so-called "Santa Claus rally" – a period of stock market growth typically observed from late December to early January. Let’s explore how Black Friday might influence the stock markets this year. Fundamental Analysis According to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, consumer spending accounts for approximately 70% of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Many analysts view stimulating consumer spending as key to sustaining economic activity. Thus, Black Friday sales figures are often seen as a vital indicator of the nation’s economic health. In 2024, Black Friday takes on added importance amid the Federal Reserve's recent cycle of interest rate cuts. Consumer spending levels during the sales period will reflect the current state of the economy, which could influence the Fed's future monetary policy direction. Impact on the U.S. Stock Market From 2001 to 2023, trends in the S&P 500 index around Black Friday have been variable, though generally positive. For example, the S&P 500 gained more than 1% in 2001, 2007, and 2012, while in 2009, it fell by 1.7%. This variability highlights the difficulty of finding a consistent annual pattern. However, retail stocks often display discernible trends during this period. As noted by Yahoo Finance, some companies’ shares have shown positive momentum in the week before and after Black Friday. Historically: - Between 2013 and 2023, the retail sector outperformed the S&P 500 in late November. - From 2007 to 2017, certain retail stocks within the S&P 500 delivered returns of up to 5%, compared to the index’s average return of 3% during the same period. Technical Analysis It’s not always straightforward. A comparison of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) and Walmart (WMT), one of the largest retail corporations, illustrates differing dynamics. The chart below highlights fluctuations: - Blue line: S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) - Orange line: Walmart stock (WMT) Vertical lines mark Black Friday periods in 2022 and 2023. Key observations: - In 2022, Black Friday coincided with a market decline. Historically, the stock market was near critical highs, leading to heightened selling pressure. - In 2023, Black Friday acted as a driver for both Walmart shares and the S&P 500. Black Friday 2023 According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), approximately 200 million people shopped during Black Friday 2023, spending an average of $321.41 per person – a historic record. Major retailers such as Amazon, Walmart, and Target benefited primarily through their online platforms and effective marketing strategies, as more consumers opted for the convenience of e-commerce. What Should Traders Expect from Black Friday 2024? NRF forecasts suggest that in 2024: - About 34% of Americans will shop on Black Friday. - Spending is expected to reach another record high, with a 3% increase compared to 2023. Furthermore, 71% of consumers surveyed by Deloitte indicated they plan to shop online, underscoring the ongoing shift toward e-commerce. However, predicting the exact market behaviour around Black Friday 2024 is challenging. Each year is shaped by unique political and economic factors. While rising consumer spending could boost company earnings and lead to an upward trend in the S&P 500, individual factors will play a significant role. Traders will need to focus on macro trends and specific company performance indicators. FAQ Does Black Friday Have a Positive Impact on the Stock Market? Black Friday's impact on the U.S. stock market is mixed. While it offers valuable fundamental data to analyse broader economic trends and consumer sentiment, its overall effect on the market is hard to track. However, Black Friday often has a more noticeable impact on retail stocks, as strong sales volumes directly influence their financial performance. Are Stock Markets Open on Black Friday? In 2024, Black Friday falls on 29 November, and U.S. stock markets will close earlier than usual. You can find more detailed information here. Where Did the Term "Black Friday" Originate? The term "Black Friday" has two main origins. The first is linked to a financial crisis in the United States in 1869 when a collapse in gold prices caused widespread market turmoil. The second explanation comes from 1960s Philadelphia, where local police coined the term to describe the chaos caused by large crowds of shoppers and tourists during the annual Army-Navy football game weekend. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
AMEX:SPY
by FXOpen
2
IBIT | This is Where Real Trader's are LookingThere's no need to complicate things. You are watching where real traders watch. I see the green box and the red box as the selling place. When the price reaches those areas, I recommend you to follow the volume side. If these regions are to be broken and passed, the volume side will give signals of this. - My Record Speaks for Itself DOGEUSDT.P | 4 Reward for 1 Risk much more if you hold it. RENDERUSDT.P | HTF Accuracy ETHUSDT.P | Accurate Buyer Zone Identification | High Risk Reward if you hold it. BNBUSDT.P | Accurate Buyer Zone Identification | High Risk Reward if you hold it. Bitcoin Dominance | Great Characteristic Detection and Accurate Analysis
NASDAQ:IBIT
by XU99
$IWM Trading Range for 11.16.24All right and I WM the implied move is between 239 and 246. On Fridays half-day 238 to 247. And in tomorrow’s trading range is the only levels in there. Are that up gap from today 35 EMA within that gap, which looks like a great place for support and then the new all-time highs which a line right with the top of the implied move so I have a feeling will be trading between that 35 EMA And all-time highs. Looks like a pretty straightforward trading day and options are calling for a pretty slow day with a lower average volatility.
AMEX:IWMShort
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
$QQQ Trading Range for 11.26.24We’ve been trading in an upper channel and with the way options look tomorrow we probably stay within that channel. Implied move is between 502 and 511, 35 EMA and 30 minute 200 MA moving together, which could keep price close to those two levels though if the 35 EMA does break down, then looked 502 underneath the entire thing we’ve got that one hour two under moving average, which has been holding us support all of last week so likely it will hold for Thanksgiving week as well Tonight’s video was awesome about showing how to trade this set up.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
$SPY Trading Range for 11.26.24So tomorrow’s trading range is pretty straightforward. We have the 35 EMA underneath us The implied move for tomorrow is between 594 and 601 and the only level in tomorrow’s trading range is the 35 EMA so definitely that should be on your radar and then at the very top of the implied move is all or just underneath the top of the move. In my opinion for tomorrow, 601–602 bear call spreads are likely a good play if we break the 35 EMA the bottom of the implied move is at 594. And 594 593 bull put spreads also look attractive to the downside. Especially since that 30 minute two and removing average is coming up underneath the bottom of the implied move.
AMEX:SPY
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
Custom Crash Index Indicates Global Markets Are PanickingI believe the global markets are panicking related to Trump's pending inauguration and the fact that the US Fed may have to keep interest rates elevated through a US austerity process. If you understand what this means, you'll clearly see why the US Dollar is trading above 106 and why Gold/Silver have moved downward recently. The process of the US moving into smaller government with potentially $1.?T in excess capital means the US would move into a dynamic BEAST of a global economy. Able to pay down debt, restructure government agencies to become more efficient and lean, while pushing global economies closer and closer to having to clean up their own mess. This is what I call the Predatory Fed.. and will likely prompt some very big price moves over the next 4-5+ years. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:XLFLong
by BradMatheny
Bull & Bear $SPY Weekly OptionsAMEX:SPY We expect the next two weeks through Thanksgiving to be quiet before we continue on this rally into the end of year through all-time highs. This week we are focusing on the range from $583 up to $598. We have weaker levels at $586 and $591.70. Here are our weekly options contracts for both sides of the trade. For confirmation, we use 15-30 minute candle closes over/under our entry level. $590 CALL 12/2 Entry: Retest Confirmation OVER $586 or $583.56 Targets: ($586), $588, $591 $584 PUT 12/2 Entry: Retest Confirmation UNDER $583.56 Targets: $580.90, Long-term trendline
AMEX:SPY
by PennyBois