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Fundamental Market Analysis for December 18, 2024 USDJPYEvent to pay attention to today: 21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Rate Decision USDJPY: The Japanese yen (JPY) is experiencing difficulty capitalising on a modest recovery against its US counterpart from the previous day, attracting fresh sellers during Wednesday's Asian session. The latest data from Japan shows an unexpected improvement in the country's trade balance in November, driven by strong export growth. However, the data also points to weak local demand, as indicated by the decline in imports. This, along with an uncertain economic outlook amid concerns over US President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans, confirms expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will keep interest rates unchanged later this week, which will have the effect of undermining the yen. Meanwhile, the prospect of a less dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) decision, as well as expectations that Trump's policies could boost government borrowing and accelerate inflation, continue to support US Treasury yields. This is another factor weighing on the low-yielding JPY, although the softer risk tone helps to limit the potential for further losses. JPY bears may also choose to adopt a more cautious approach and refrain from making any significant bets ahead of a key central bank event. The Federal Reserve will announce its decision at the conclusion of its two-day meeting today, followed by the Bank of Japan's monetary policy update on Thursday. Trade recommendation: We follow the level of 153.500, if it is fixed above we consider Buy positions, if it bounces back we consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USDCHF H1 I Bearish Reversal?Based on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price is approaching our sell entry at 0.8931, which is a pullback resistance close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Our take profit will be at 0.8887, a pullback support level. The stop loss will be at 0.8972, a resistance level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
AUDUSD 3H ShortThe AUD/USD 3-hour chart shows a potential bearish continuation setup as price trades below the Kijun-sen (blue) and Tenkan-sen (red), while remaining well under the Ichimoku cloud (Kumo), indicating a strong bearish trend. The red Kumo ahead reinforces selling pressure, and price’s recent failure to hold above resistance signals further downside potential. A bearish continuation below the current support at 0.6317 could open a path towards the next key level at 0.6306, while a stop-loss above the Kijun-sen near 0.6346 helps manage risk, maintaining a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.
Short
by ALRDNMRSKY
GBPUSD D1 ShortThe GBP/USD daily chart presents a potential bearish continuation setup as price tests the Kijun-sen (blue) and Tenkan-sen (red) resistance while remaining below the Ichimoku cloud (Kumo), signaling an overall bearish bias. The red Kumo ahead reinforces negative momentum, but caution is advised as the Kijun-Tenkan confluence could trigger a reversal. A rejection here could offer a short entry below 1.2680, with a stop-loss above the Kijun-sen near 1.2823 and a target at the previous swing low around 1.2489, maintaining a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.
Short
by ALRDNMRSKY
EurAud could accelerate to the upside (1.7 target)After dipping below the key 1.6 level—both a technical and psychological threshold—at the end of November, EUR/AUD quickly rebounded and began climbing in a constructive manner. Recently, it established solid support at the 1.6350-1.6360 zone, with two notable reversals from this area observed last week. As of now, EUR/AUD is trading at 1.6507, just below a technical resistance level, with the price action showing signs of a buildup. The odds favor an upward breakout, and if this materializes, it could lead to a sharp acceleration higher. In this scenario, my swing trade target is the 1.7 mark. For now, my strategy is to buy on dips, anticipating the breakout and preparing for the upside momentum.
Long
by Mihai_Iacob
10
EURJPY: Capturing BOJ decisionsFrom technical perspective, the price moved to significant orders in the past. And once reach there, there's bearish engulfing candle formed. To see inclination of price movements coherently: 1. GDP of Euro Zone in stagnant level without significant increase or decrease (demand in EURO is stagnant) 2. Japan CPI keeps growing (demand in YEN) Therefore, there's possibility liquidity created first there with bearish engulfing, signifies bearish movement ahead.
Short
by kolabid
AUDUSD InsightHello, subscribers! It's great to see you all. Please feel free to share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe! Key Points - U.S. retail sales for November, reported by the Department of Commerce, increased by 0.7%, surpassing market expectations. - Strong retail sales indicate that the momentum of the U.S. economy is strengthening. While a rate hold is widely expected at the December FOMC meeting, the prevailing view is that rates will also remain on hold in January. - With the Japanese yen weakening further against the dollar, some suggest that Japanese authorities might intervene in the currency markets. I- n the U.K., wages rose by 5.2% year-over-year from August to October, exceeding expectations and driving the pound higher. - In Canada, the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.9%, falling short of the market estimate of 2.0%, which weakened the Canadian dollar. Key Economic Indicators + December 18: U.K. November CPI, Eurozone November CPI, FOMC meeting results + December 19: Bank of Japan rate decision, Bank of England rate decision + December 20: U.S. November Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index AUD/USD Chart Analysis The AUD/USD pair has finally broken below the 0.63500 level. Based on the current chart, further declines toward the 0.62000 level seem likely. However, the direction could shift upward depending on the stance the Federal Reserve takes during this week’s FOMC meeting. If unexpected factors lead to an upward move, I’ll quickly revise the strategy accordingly.
Short
by shawntime_academy
#EURUSD - 18122024I was bullish EURUSD yesterday but it made a new high then came down to level below, before recovering but closing with a bearish candle. Is the highs in? Or is this just a pullback for another leg higher. This IMO, is a tricky question. With yesterday's bearish candle, I do see a move lower. Thus a possible scenario, if I am overall bullish, would be, for price to come down to clear the lows, before buyers come in and bring this higher. 1.0468 is thus a good level to go long off. However, if price continues up from here, I would be wary of a pullback from a resistance above and 1.0516 is such a level. Of course, it can trade to 1.0516, sell down to 1.0468 then rally up to close green.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
USD/JPY at Bearish Gartley Completion: High-Probability Short The USD/JPY has completed a Bearish Gartley harmonic pattern, with the critical reversal zone (point D) aligning near the 154-155 resistance area. This technical confluence suggests a potential short opportunity for a trend reversal in the short to medium term. Strategy: Sell at the Reversal Zone (Point D) Rationale: The 154-155 zone represents a critical resistance level, coinciding with the completion of the Bearish Gartley pattern. Recent price action shows rejection candles near the resistance, signaling waning bullish momentum. The TDI indicator reveals bearish divergence, with price forming higher highs while the indicator forms equal highs—validating a possible reversal. Trade Parameters: Entry Zone: 154.00 Stop Loss: 155.50 (above resistance and point D) Take Profit: 150.00 (major psychological and technical support) Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:2.5 This setup leverages the strong technical confluence of the Bearish Gartley pattern, validated by divergence and resistance tests. As always, price action confirmation near the resistance is essential before entering.
Long
by MrVNpt
GBPJPY BULLISH Play for the WeekGJ has been on a Monthly Bullish Run in my eyes, so with that in mind looking into this weeks play I expect a break to the upside into Bullish Territory once my Yellow 4hr/Daily Trendline has been broken. Before that I expect a bearish start to the week bringing price down to our Buy Limit ultimately propelling us to the upside. Once 194.500 has been broken I expect a BULLISH Rally, will set trades to BREAK EVEN at this stage of the trade. TP 1 & 2 have a potential to get hit this week (keep in mind a retracement is possible at the TP1 area) TP 3 will probably have to wait till next week but let’s get through this week 1st and see if the markets are on our side..!
Long
by jcatchinpips
Bearish to Bullish Play for the Week on GbpAudAfter thorough analysis through each timeframe I have concluded that GA is Bullish on a Weekly Level after my Weekly Red Trendline broke for a 2nd time to the upside, with that in mind in the 1hr-4hr TF it has broke my blue trendline to the bearish side suggesting a possible retest to the Inbalance around 1.96700-1.96500, only way I would change my bearish outlook from current price is if we break thru 1.99200 to the bullish territory. If the sell plays out turning into a buy midweek closing the week out around 1.98500-1.99000 it would make a weekly doji building up for next weeks play.. BUT let’s see if we can catch this weeks play 1st lol.. may the markets be on our side !
by jcatchinpips
Precision Trade Setup on AUD/USD with a Bullish Gartley PatternThe AUD/USD is setting up for a potential reversal near a key harmonic "Gartley" formation. This advanced technical structure, combined with critical confluences, highlights an area of high-probability trade opportunities. Strategy: Buy at the Reversal Point (D) Rationale: The harmonic Gartley pattern suggests a potential trend reversal near 0.628, aligning with a long-term trendline and a horizontal support zone (highlighted in purple). RSI indicates oversold conditions, and the TDI shows bullish divergence, reinforcing the case for a recovery. A significant risk-reward ratio makes this trade an attractive opportunity. Trade Parameters: Entry Zone: 0.628 Stop Loss: 0.657 Take Profit: 0.6457 Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:3+ While the technical setup is compelling, it is crucial to remain vigilant about price action in lower timeframes. Always confirm price action before entering a position.
Long
by MrVNpt
1