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AUD/USD Approaching Key Long-Term Support ZoneChart Analysis: The Australian Dollar has fallen sharply and is now approaching a key support level near 0.6172, last tested in October 2022. 1️⃣ Support Zone: The horizontal level at 0.6172 represents a critical long-term support area. A test of this level could attract significant attention from market participants. 2️⃣ Fibonacci Retracement: The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the larger upswing sits around 0.6042, which could act as an extended support level if the current zone is breached. 3️⃣ Moving Averages: 50-day SMA (blue): The pair remains well below this level, currently at 0.6524, signaling strong bearish momentum. 200-day SMA (red): Positioned at 0.6615, reflecting a broader downtrend in play. 4️⃣ Momentum Indicators: RSI: At 30.54, nearing oversold territory, which could signal a potential short-term bounce or pause in the downtrend. MACD: Deep in negative territory, with no clear signs of reversal as the MACD line continues to trend downward. What to Watch: Price action near 0.6172: Will the level hold, or will a break open the door for further declines toward 0.6042? RSI divergence or bullish patterns near support could indicate the possibility of a rebound. AUD/USD remains under significant pressure, with momentum favoring bears as the pair approaches a pivotal support zone. -MW
by FOREXcom
USD/JPY price action: breakout rally after hawkish FedThe USD/JPY pair has surged over 2% to reach 157.51, marking the yen's weakest level in four months. This significant rally follows recent interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. Despite the Fed's 25bps rate cut, the US dollar has gained strength due to the market's anticipation of only two rate cuts in 2025, contrasting with earlier expectations of four. This decision maintains the interest rate differential between the US and Japan, benefiting carry trade strategies. Meanwhile, the BoJ has kept its short-term rate steady at 0.25%, its highest since 2008, with potential rate hikes forecasted if economic conditions align. The US's optimistic economic projections, with rising GDP, inflation, and job growth, further bolster the dollar's appeal. As global economic uncertainties and political changes unfold, traders should monitor central bank signals to navigate the USD/JPY's trajectory and carry trade opportunities.
by tastyfx
GBPCHF - Short SetupMy main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels. In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D key liquidity level and left untouched level lower. Also price swept key weekly swing high. But to take more statistically more probable trades we should wait for some type of lower timeframe confirmation, and it this case we can notice sign of weakness, so potentially there is a higher probability to see price lower. Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
Short
by Maks_Klimenko
1
USD/JPY hits 5-mth high after BoJ holds ratesThe Japanese yen continues its rapid descent and is sharply lower on Wednesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 156.82, up 1.3% on the day. Earlier, the yen weakened to 157.14, its lowest level against the US dollar since July 22. The Bank of Japan didn't have any surprises up its sleeve on Thursday as it maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.25%. The BoJ has kept rates steady since July but has signaled that it intends to normalize policy and raise rates. The central bank has been guarded about the timing of a rate hike and there was some speculation that it might raise rates at Thursday's meeting. The decision to hold rates was not unanimous, with 8 members voting in favor and one member voting for a 25-basis point hike. The rate statement did not shed much light on the BoJ's plans but Governor Ueda said at his press conference that the BoJ could afford to move slowly on raising rates since underlying inflation was only increasing at a "moderate pace". The markets expect another rate hike in the first quarter of 2025. Ueda also noted that there was uncertainty over the policies of the  incoming Trump administration. Trump has declared he will impose tariffs on US trading partners, which could affect global inflation. Interestingly, the BoJ holds its next meeting on Jan. 24, a day after Trump takes office. The Federal Reserve's quarter-point rate cut was widely expected but the market was surprised by the Fed's updated rate-cut forecast. In September, the Fed projected four rate cuts in 2025 but this was halved to just two cuts at the Wednesday meeting. US stock markets were sharply lower in response but the US dollar shined and rose sharply on Wednesday against all the major currencies, including 0.85% against the yen. At his follow-up press conference, Fed Chair Powell said he was "very optimistic" about the strength of the US economy but he was less rosy about inflation, which has stalled above the Fed's 2% target. Powell said, "we have been moving sideways on 12-month inflation", a signal that the Fed may take a pause from its easing cycle until inflation resumes its downswing. USD/JPY has pushed above resistance at 155.38 and 155.92 and is putting pressure on resistance at 156.98 154.32 and 153.78 are the next support levels
by OANDA
USD/JPY Approaching Key Fibonacci ResistanceChart Analysis: The USD/JPY pair has extended its rally and is now approaching the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 157.19, a critical resistance zone for the current uptrend. 1️⃣ Fibonacci Retracement: The 78.6% retracement of the downtrend from 161.80 to 138.00 aligns near 157.19, making it a key area for traders to watch for potential reversals or a breakout continuation. 2️⃣ Moving Averages: 50-day SMA (blue): The pair is comfortably above this level at 152.50, highlighting strong short-term bullish momentum. 200-day SMA (red): Positioned at 152.21, confirming the broader upward trend. 3️⃣ Momentum Indicators: RSI: At 68.44, nearing overbought territory, suggesting a potential slowdown or consolidation in the short term. MACD: Bullish momentum remains strong as the MACD line trends higher, signaling continued buying pressure. What to Watch: A breakout above 157.19 could open the path for a retest of the 161.80 highs. If the pair stalls at Fibonacci resistance, traders may look for support around the 50-day SMA near 152.50. USD/JPY is at a pivotal resistance zone. While the trend remains bullish, momentum indicators suggest caution as price approaches critical levels. -MW
by FOREXcom
GBPUSD – Can The Rollercoaster Price Action Continue? GBPUSD – Can The Rollercoaster Price Action Continue? What a difference a day can make to market expectations and positioning. GBPUSD was riding high around 1.2720 late Wednesday afternoon on the back of stronger UK wage growth and inflation (CPI) readings from earlier in the week, creating some uncertainty about what its next directional move maybe. Then, enter the Federal Reserve (Fed), who cut interest rates 25bps (0.25%) last night, as expected, but provided a more cautious assessment for their approach in 2025. Chairman Powell emphasised that the US central bank doesn’t need to be as quick to act with rate cuts moving forward until they see more progress on inflation falling to their 2% target. This saw a rush to buy dollars again, which in turn sent GBPUSD sharply lower below 1.26. So, what’s next for the pound, as traders need to contend with the Bank of England (BoE) rate decision at 1200 GMT today. No change to interest rates is expected due to the stubborn inflation readings received this week, but the direction of the voting on the committee and accompanying statement may give an insight into their thinking regarding rate cuts in 2025. All of which could add to the rollercoaster price action of GBPUSD into the weekend. So, with the potential for GBPUSD volatility moving forward, what are the possible chart levels to consider? Possible Support Levels to Watch Coming into this BoE meeting, GBPUSD has already seen price weakness emerge following the more hawkish Fed. This has seen breaks below support at 1.2611, which is equal to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of November/December strength. While this move lower doesn’t guarantee further price weakness, the next support to consider may be marked by the November 22nd low at 1.2490, and if this support was to be broken following the Bank of England rate decision, it may be possible that GBPUSD could test support at the May low of 1.2449. How About Resistance? To the upside we can potentially use the Fibonacci retracement of the December price weakness to gauge possible resistance levels,. The 38.2% retracement stands at 1.2657 and traders may well be watching how well this resistance level, if tested, is defended by fresh selling interest. If this upside level was to break, it may increase the possibility of a more prolonged recovery, at which point, risks may turn towards tests of the higher 62% Fibonacci retracement level, which stands at 1.2715. The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
by Pepperstone
EUR/USD Under Bearish Pressure: A Market Analysis [Update]As anticipated in our previous analyses, the EUR/USD currency pair experienced significant downward pressure during the late American trading session on Wednesday, hitting its lowest point in almost a month, below 1.0350. Currently, while I am drafting this article, the pair has seen a minor rebound and is trading around 1.0410; however, the technical indicators still suggest a bearish outlook. The price is nearing a critical area where it may continue to decline. Our analysis reveals an imbalance on the Daily timeframe that could signal a further downturn. For more detailed insights, please refer to the link provided below. Following the last Federal Reserve policy meeting of the year, the central bank announced a reduction in its policy rate by 25 basis points, aligning with market expectations, bringing it to a range between 4.25% and 4.5%. In their accompanying statement, the Fed emphasized that they would take into account incoming data, the evolving economic landscape, and the balance of risks when evaluating future rate adjustments. In the aftermath of the Fed's decision, the US Dollar (USD) gained substantial strength, leading to a sharp decline in the EUR/USD pair. Moving forward, our outlook suggests the potential for a new bearish correction in the market as we navigate these developments. Previous close position SHORT ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
GBPUSD BEARISH IDEAGBPUSD price attempting to break the weekly bearish flag possibly attempting to test previous weekly structure lows Daily chart shows a possible divergence creating a thesis that a possible pullback is imminent that could test previous support turned resistance for possible bearish continuation set up note: The indicator you are seeing in the chart are bollinger bands with 200 sma that would show if price is over extended long term. this indicator is set to daily so that if you scroll down to lower time frame what you will see is the same indicator but set to daily. The RSI is the regular rsi with 100sma bollinger band for long term trend shifts in momentum. 4h or 1h chart would be the execution chart if I will see pull backs to fib levels using RSI midline and sma as confluence
Short
by Junmadayag