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NQ Broadening TopThe NQ is making a broadening top pattern. This is not a bearish or bullish pattern, since it trends upward 49.6% of the time and downward 50.3% of time. It has a nice look, where price was trending upward 6 months leading into the pattern, with downward sloping volume. To pick a top in this market is dangerous, with the low volume grind. I am looking for clear resistance at the top TL, where the previous days low is violated on a strong daily close. However, I believe the markets could try to close towards highs leading into Trump´s inauguration, with price at highs or near them. After that it´s anyones guess. This is also the week before opex, so we could see a Thursday / Friday low? All bs at the moment. However, if next week is like all the other days in the election cycle for Trump, I would not be surprised if next week is an upside bias week. Notes on chart Go to bulkowski for good information on broadening tops at thepatternsite dot com
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by elp
5
Time and Price at the 78.6Looking at the es and time with fibonacci on a x axis, price seems to have a reaction at the 27.2 - 61.8 - 78.6 fib ratios. Using the October 2014 low to May 2015 high as anchors for the x axis, from observation the 27.2 - 61.8- 78.6 have made alternating highs and lows. From October 2014 to May 2015 the 27.2 was a low, 61.8 a high and the 78.6 a low. From the May high to date, the 1.272 was a high, 1.618 was a low with the 1.786 pointing to November 3rd for a possible area where price and time could have a reaction looking left of the chart. Also the time x axis 78.6 and price y axis 78.6 meeting on november 3rd could produce a reaction for price. Price and time meeting to create a reversal. I will use a stop to show me I am wrong and not a max pain stop. This could all be bs, I don´t know.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by elp
6
IS THE S&P500 FOLLOWING YEARS 1965-1966? IF SO SHORTOctober 2014 - October 2015 coppied and pasted on to years 1965-1966 correction rally and correction. Here is a possible fractal where current price could be following or rhyme with years 1965-1966. Both periods had an initial correction (october 2014) both periods had a powerful rally out of the correction lows that made a similar % move and time move from lows to highs. Both periods seem to have made a wedge into highs. From highs to the August 24th lows both periods made a similar % drop and took a similar amount of time. Current price is following the sideways chopzone of year 1966 to date. If current price can not break out of the chopzone where year 2015 continues to follow the year 1966 correction. I would believe towards the end of this week into next week the S&P500 could make a final top before dropping another 16% if year 2015 continues to follow year 1966. I could be 100% wrong! I also have a bullish view where if price breaks out of highs or finds support in the chopzone the S&P500 could go on to make new highs or test highs. I don´t know so I am keeping an open mind to bull and bear setups. If the short continues to trade I will look to sell the ES with a stop to show me I am wrong and not max pain. Best to your trading!
YShort
by elp
3
ES Commercial Net Interest Long SignalCommercial net interest was stronger at the current yr 2015 lows than at the yr 2011 lows and yr 2007 lows before the yr 2007 ath. Both yrs 2007 and 2011 the commercial long signal resulted with the ES making a new all time high. I don´t know if price will follow this signal again. However price history can rhyme which could thrust the ES to new all time highs before 2015 year end. As long as the dips continue to be bought, as they have been since the August lows. I would look to go long on the pullbacks with a stop to show me I am wrong.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by elp
11
SPX MY BEAR VIEWUsing Tim West´s long short filter set to 4-16 emas years 2000 & 2008 corrections were identified. The 4-16 emas also gave a bear signal in years 2010 & 2011 which were false signals. Yet when using this system along with T3 mvas 5 -20, years 2000 & 2008 experienced a bear cross along with the 4-16 emas. Years 2010 & 2011 the T3 mvas did not cross showing the 4-16 ema cross was a false signal. Using two different types of moving averages to try and filter out false signals. Although this current T3 mva cross along with the 4-16 ema cross could be a false signal. I don´t know, only time and price will show me if this is the case. In years 2000 and 2008 when the 4-16 emas crossed along with the T3 mvas, price experienced a bear market rally back up to its 50% & 61.8% fibs where price hit a brick wall and eventually traded back down to it´s -1.618 fib extension. Currently the the 50% & 61.8% are at 2003 to 2034 with the -1.618 at 1446 I believe if history repeats price could rally back up to 2003-2034 range and would look to trade long up to these levels. If price finds noticable resistance at the hwb, would look to short with a target at 1446 I could be 100% wrong so using a stop is recomended.
SP:SPXShort
by elp
1
DAX Pullback?The DAX has had a huge rally of 36.51% from the October low, 22.55% in 2015 and 11.46% from the ECB's announcment of euro style QE. This is a huge rally that could enter some resistance with the start of the ECB's QE starting in March. next week the ECB meets on the 5th and could create a news reversal. IMO this current rally since the ECB announced QE could be buy the rumor, when the ECB QE finally starts QE, the rally has already happened, all the buying is used up and a news reversal is created. A news spike up to 11435-11465 where price is clearly rejected would be a sign that the DAX could be in for a pullback. However, would wait for a daily close after the ECB meeting on the 5th before taking any action in a short position, since the DAX is only allowed to go up at the moment.
FX:GER30
by elp
7
SPX Good RR Setup for a short. I'm not implying the spx rally is over or a top is in. But looking at the channel the spx has been trading in since 2011 lows, there is not much room to the upside at the moment and believe by observation there is more room for the spx to pullback. My plan is to sell the hwb from highs to lows as long as it acts as resistance with a tight stop. Last week was the first time the 61.8 short held as resistance. For the whole month of February there was no resistance, last week it showed up. If it continues, looking to sell resistance. If the market rallies back up to highs which it could, I would look to sell into strength with my stop above the top channel. IMO it's a good rr trade and better than the long at this moment. I would look to take off the trade ar 2020-2012 could even see the spx trade back to 1968.
FX:SPX500Short
by elp
13