Get started

Ym

NQ - 4Hr + Macro / Gamma - Delta Accident - JPow Fools AgainThe Macro Data Calendar for Today: Non-Farm Payrolls Average Hourly Earnings Unemployment Rate Coupons - $8.425 Billion 2s to 4s. ______________________________________________________ ZN continues to Trade the Lower End of the Range. The BOE Stick saved the US Treasury Market, although FED FUNDS... Disagree - www.cmegroup.com Oops... Again - www.cmegroup.com Powell Blindsided everyone with the Taper while FED FUNDS... Accident moving forward in TIME. 2x Ooops. ______________________________________________________ Our Thesis was the Federal Reserve would begin to move forward, quickly forward to Increase FED FUNDS far more rapidly than the Retail Trader/Investor anticipates. This Thesis has been ongoing since JULY 2021. 2024 to 2023 to 2022 to now 2021. We were Correct - 100% Correct. Thereby creating a large Event taking the Equity Complex to its knees and down to the 200SMAs, where they would find minor support for a Counter-Trend, only to reverse and Trade to closer to the 400SMAs. Nothing, and I am quite resolute in this Thesis, has changed. The Probability has increased substantially - Exponentially. ______________________________________________________ Disagree? Up to you, it is your Capital @ RISK. We continue to mount a large Position in Options for the IMPENDING reversal. ______________________________________________________ NQ will be in 8/9 today, the Price Objective we stated for the Profit Target... was met during Globex @ 16424. SOLD NQ on a FR. Resistance has Traded First. ______________________________________________________ I have been repeatedly Asked in PM @ TV why I am a "Bear" in this Mania. Answer: Continue to chase Gamma/Delta, we Fade it, there is no Top Picking is ongoing, there is, however, an acute understanding of how this ends, and it will. Positioning for it, taking heat... taking losses, all part of the entry. We hold no Underlying Sells in the NQ ES YM RTY. We do Hold Derivatives in the QQQ SPY SMH TQQQ TSLA QCOM TLT AMC AAPL and continue to build on these Positions from November to January. Top pickers have at it, wading in is more our style and we know how to do so with a minimal negative effect - Hedge Underlying. ______________________________________________________ We see a very large Market Dislocation directly ahead. Agree/Disagree - immaterial. It is our Trade Plan and it is not changing, not remotely. ______________________________________________________ The unwind will be of extreme velocity, most will indeed miss the majority of the Negative Price Actions. Presently - 32% Positioned into the impending SELL. ______________________________________________________ Trade Safe everyone - HK
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by HK_L61
2
NQ - Daily: Price is now in the "Box"Wire to Wire Melt-ups is the very definition of an Aggressive Extension. The price moved accordingly within NQ Extension to perfectly hit its first area of Resistance the Heavy Depth of Market Distribution for the next Wave down within the downturn off the High @ 15,708.50. We are now roughly 650 Ticks from the September Highs. or conversely as little more than halfway off the Lows @ 143567.25. The same 2 Draw are shown in the FIB Ladders 1. Ledge @ 15399 to 14367 2. ATH @ 15708 to 14367 The symmetry illustrates how time functions as Intersects are important, they are Pivots for Price in Time when defined correctly, it requires patience to hunt them down if you are relatively inexperienced. e Eventually, you will find them with ease. Within the Symmetry, we see the "Box" - although it will appear tilted, it is our larger retracement Range IF and Only IF this level of resistance is broken and continues to Hold. We have Gaps above and Gaps below, by design... it creates uncertainty, again, by design. We also have, more importantly - the Retracement we were looking for Price attempting to Fill the Gap above. We do not know if this will be a Gap & GO or a Gap & Trap. We see on the smaller Timeframes October 21 as an important Time... On the larger Daily Timeframe - we see November as important. Our Box has a boundary for Time and within it there are a number of dates now which began popping up last week to assert themselves on Shorter Durations. The VIX Crush is underway as the VVIX is being pushed back into our Corner, albeit slowly... ever so slowly. The VXN has 18.60 as the next lower Objective. Price is either going to Over-Throw or consolidate. Typically extensions this Aggressive either continue of Fail in rather Epic proportions. Friday's are always fun, they tend to relieve the most capital from both sides during Expiry... Put holders have been smoked, the large number of Call buyers wants their Payday.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
4
YM - 1000 Ticks of RangeThe Dow Futures have been an easy SELL at the top of the Range. BUY Side anticipates another BUY at the bottom of the Range. The YM Closed September @ 14,682 and with the High for October at the level of 15001.25 it is well off the prior Months Close, as well, and more importantly - well off the October Highs. The Intra-Day Price swings have been Volatile, with what was hoped to be a solid rotation and lift to 36700 to 37200 as the Economy reopening trade took hold. Delta tossed a large wrench into those Aspirations... Recently, we have seen wild stops runs during Globex, only to be slammed into @ the witching hours during RTH. The lower Price Objectives for the YM begin several thousand points below @ 31K and extend down to Fill the Monthly Gap @ 28.2K. The Equity Complex continues to weaken, Day after Day, regardless of short term gyrations which entice those content on reliving the past. 4/5 has a long way to go... more for TECH and the S&P500, as they will be hit the hardest. Today Price action in the YM has been in excess of a 350 Point Range with a Dip into the 33Ks. The Trend is clear for now, lower and lower, cautiously avoiding a reset of the lows... We do not believe they will hold, but induce more selling to the 200EMA @ 33266, a third test of the Lows we would not trust.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by HK_L61
7
NQ - Daily Setup / D1 = 15708-14367 & D2 = 15399 - 14367Price provided further Information the last few days. We have been patiently waiting for developments in the Market Structures to unfold . We anticipated a Countrend after hitting the WEEKLY LTL @ 14367 illustrated in a prior Chart Observation. Everything has traded out as we anticipated and indicated. SO far, SO good - this is always subject to change. We never tell Price what to do, but simply obey its increasingly Volatile gyrations. _____________________________________________________ Prior to the beginning - I would point out the NQ has given back 100+ Ticks in the Final hour in prior Sessions. Sellers remain on the Hourly Timeframe End of Day - Volumes Support the SELL as being more than a simple Profit-taking event, but a larger and continuing Distribution. As well, the ES gave up 50% from its highs yesterday, falling short of the Gap Fill. The YM fell back 200+ Ticks. Sellers remain as the Hourly is attempting to turn Up to imbue the Bulls that we are out of the Loggins Danger Zone. We are not quite yet for a number of reasons and conditions we will discuss this in detail. This will be NASDAQ-centric, as it has the most to gain and to lose. The YM / RTY are trading on their own, the ES is more closely aligned to the NQ and the VIX. These Price actions and divergences are important between Indexes as the rotation trades continue. Friday Macro Data: 08:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep) 08:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) (Sep) 08:30 USD Average Weekly Hours (Sep) 08:30 USD Building Permits (MoM) (Sep) 08:30 USD Government Payrolls (Sep) 08:30 USD Manufacturing Payrolls (Sep) 08:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) 08:30 USD Participation Rate (Sep) 08:30 USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) 08:30 USD U6 Unemployment Rate (Sep) 08:30 USD Unemployment Rate (Sep) 10:00 USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM) 10:00 USD Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (Aug) 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 15:30 GBP CFTC GBP speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Aluminium speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Copper speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Corn speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Gold speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Natural Gas speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Silver speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Soybeans speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Wheat speculative net positions _____________________________________________________ Technically, the attempt to Fill the Gap is underway. It failed yesterday, it is, however - Friday. Which suggests the potential for more extreme Price action is on deck. We have conflicting Information on varying Timeframes: The hourly as mentioned above is attempting to move Higher, the Daily/Weekly remain in a Net Negative Position. We see 3 Potential Outcomes, which require Patience... and suggest patience pays quite often here. Simply because it does protect Traders from Biases formed during large declines in Price for which the NQ saw 5%+ come off the Top of the Range while BTD Retailers were howling for 18,000. Gap and Don't Look Back Implication: The lows at 14367 were it, Price will now move higher back to all-time highs once again. It worked for 18 Months and it will continue. The correction was merely a release of optimism in excess. Unfortunately, No. Yesterday is today is tomorrow works when Sentiment is increasing. This Selloff came on declining Investor Sentiment, a very real loss of Confidence, and a late-stage rally on the extremely poor breadth and declining Volumes. AMZN was the first to give up the Ghost and did it. According to the Bulls - it's back to all-time highs. This requires a large amount of work for Price and ignores a great many Fundamental Macro Factors BUlls have dismissed for a lengthy period of time. Gap to Fill to Range into Break It is too early to know as this would develop over time, can Price chop in a large range for weeks to a month into November? It would require a number of conditions - the 21/34/50EMAs would need to begin to turn up on Larger TF's to flatten out ever so slightly. Oscillators would need to remove the extremely Negative conditions don't the WEEKLY TF. The 50EMAs on the DAILY TF would need to be broken and hold Price between 21/34/50EMAs which are compressing and relatively tight. Price would need to range into a Break Up or Down. We saw the NQ Retrace over the .500 and onto the -.382 yesterday on the draw from 15399 to 14367. It did not however complete the .500 if the larger Full Range Draw from 15708 to 14367. Price will decide as Price provides further evidence as to the complexity of this Retracement. Gap and Trap to Fail IN a downtrend, the 21/34/50 tend to provide Resistance. The Levels act as a ceiling typically, although we have seen a great many over-throws of Resistance only to Trap Buyers @ Highs as Price reverses adding further Energy for downside Momentum as the "Oh Sh_t" point of recognition becomes a momentary lapse of reason for the first few Dunks... they buy the Dip until it stops working, which adds further Energy as they have not only compounded their Capital Issues, but engendered the rest of the BTD Herd with bravado as they chase their averages lower... until the losses compound to such a degree, they become the Egg People and SELL at the Lows. We have seen this time and again. Inexperienced Investors wander and make all sorts of "pronouncements" Nasdaq 18K", "Dow 37K", "ES 5000" - Eggo's in the toaster... is what they quickly become. Undeterred, they begin calling bottoms. And upon any retracement of any size... the BUll is Back Baby~! This has always been Degenerate Gambling with little to no patience of any kind, simply a self-fulfilling YOLO prophecy which paid the Bills for awhile. In 2002, all that will change as a 50% correction will begin after we complete 5/5. The DG's will finally be pummeled to the point of prior generational lessons learned. It is simply our nature, short memories and high expectations. "I'm a winner~!" In the Age of everyone gets a trophy, the gene pool becomes murky in the Deeper end of the kiddie pool, which seems to be endless in length. The needs for Chlorine are immense as the waters are contaminated with fecal matter. Enough about PYS, onto the what Price is up to. We are waiting to see if Price pivots to the Larger Daily Draw from 15708 to 14367. Today is Pivotal as next week is all about Inflation by the Numbers. More time will be required, perhaps into Tuesday... to determine how the underlying Structure is shaping up. _____________________________________________________ So here's that word again - Patience Price will tell us everything we need to know. Price provided further Information the last few days. We have been patiently waiting for developments in the Market Structures to unfold . We anticipated a Countrend after hitting the WEEKLY LTL @ 14367 illustrated in a prior Chart Observation. Everything has traded out as we anticipated and indicated. SO far, SO good - this is always subject to change. We never tell Price what to do, but simply obey its increasingly Volatile gyrations. _____________________________________________________ Prior to the beginning - I would point out the NQ has given back 100+ Ticks in the Final hour in prior Sessions. Sellers remain on the Hourly Timeframe End of Day - Volumes Support the SELL as being more than a simple Profit-taking event, but a larger and continuing Distribution. As well, the ES gave up 50% from its highs yesterday, falling short of the Gap Fill. The YM fell back 200+ Ticks. Sellers remain as the Hourly is attempting to turn Up to imbue the Bulls that we are out of the Loggins Danger Zone. We are not quite yet for a number of reasons and conditions we will discuss this in detail. This will be NASDAQ-centric, as it has the most to gain and to lose. The YM / RTY are trading on their own, the ES is more closely aligned to the NQ and the VIX. These Price actions and divergences are important between Indexes as the rotation trades continue. Friday Macro Data: 08:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep) 08:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) (Sep) 08:30 USD Average Weekly Hours (Sep) 08:30 USD Building Permits (MoM) (Sep) 08:30 USD Government Payrolls (Sep) 08:30 USD Manufacturing Payrolls (Sep) 08:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) 08:30 USD Participation Rate (Sep) 08:30 USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) 08:30 USD U6 Unemployment Rate (Sep) 08:30 USD Unemployment Rate (Sep) 10:00 USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM) 10:00 USD Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (Aug) 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 15:30 GBP CFTC GBP speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Aluminium speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Copper speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Corn speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Gold speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Natural Gas speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Silver speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Soybeans speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Wheat speculative net positions _____________________________________________________ Technically, the attempt to Fill the Gap is underway. It failed yesterday, it is, however - Friday. Which suggests the potential for more extreme Price action is on deck. We have conflicting Information on varying Timeframes: The hourly as mentioned above is attempting to move Higher, the Daily/Weekly remain in a Net Negative Position. We see 3 Potential Outcomes, which require Patience... and suggest patience pays quite often here. Simply because it does protect Traders from Biases formed during large declines in Price for which the NQ saw 5%+ come off the Top of the Range while BTD Retailers were howling for 18,000. Gap and Don't Look Back Implication: The lows at 14367 were it, Price will now move higher back to all-time highs once again. It worked for 18 Months and it will continue. The correction was merely a release of optimism in excess. Unfortunately, No. Yesterday is today is tomorrow works when Sentiment is increasing. This Selloff came on declining Investor Sentiment, a very real loss of Confidence, and a late-stage rally on the extremely poor breadth and declining Volumes. AMZN was the first to give up the Ghost and did it. According to the Bulls - it's back to all-time highs. This requires a large amount of work for Price and ignores a great many Fundamental Macro Factors BUlls have dismissed for a lengthy period of time. Gap to Fill to Range into Break It is too early to know as this would develop over time, can Price chop in a large range for weeks to a month into November? It would require a number of conditions - the 21/34/50EMAs would need to begin to turn up on Larger TF's to flatten out ever so slightly. Oscillators would need to remove the extremely Negative conditions don't the WEEKLY TF. The 50EMAs on the DAILY TF would need to be broken and hold Price between 21/34/50EMAs which are compressing and relatively tight. Price would need to range into a Break Up or Down. We saw the NQ Retrace over the .500 and onto the -.382 yesterday on the draw from 15399 to 14367. It did not however complete the .500 if the larger Full Range Draw from 15708 to 14367. Price will decide as Price provides further evidence as to the complexity of this Retracement. Gap and Trap to Fail IN a downtrend, the 21/34/50 tend to provide Resistance. The Levels act as a ceiling typically, although we have seen a great many over-throws of Resistance only to Trap Buyers @ Highs as Price reverses adding further Energy for downside Momentum as the "Oh Sh_t" point of recognition becomes a momentary lapse of reason for the first few Dunks... they buy the Dip until it stops working, which adds further Energy as they have not only compounded their Capital Issues, but engendered the rest of the BTD Herd with bravado as they chase their averages lower... until the losses compound to such a degree, they become the Egg People and SELL at the Lows. We have seen this time and again. Inexperienced Investors wander and make all sorts of "pronouncements" Nasdaq 18K", "Dow 37K", "ES 5000" - Eggo's in the toaster... is what they quickly become. Undeterred, they begin calling bottoms. And upon any retracement of any size... the BUll is Back Baby~! This has always been Degenerate Gambling with little to no patience of any kind, simply a self-fulfilling YOLO prophecy which paid the Bills for awhile. In 2002, all that will change as a 50% correction will begin after we complete 5/5. The DG's will finally be pummeled to the point of prior generational lessons learned. It is simply our nature, short memories and high expectations. "I'm a winner~!" In the Age of everyone gets a trophy, the gene pool becomes murky in the Deeper end of the kiddie pool, which seems to be endless in length. The needs for Chlorine are immense as the waters are contaminated with fecal matter. Enough about PYS, onto the what Price is up to. We are waiting to see if Price pivots to the Larger Daily Draw from 15708 to 14367. Today is Pivotal as next week is all about Inflation by the Numbers. More time will be required, perhaps into Tuesday... to determine how the underlying Structure is shaping up. _____________________________________________________ So here's that word again - Patience Price will inform us of what we need to know. Patience. _____________________________________________________ My belief is we see Price head to the 200SMAs and break them after another Counter Trend off the 200SMAs, towards the 400SMAs. This would land the ES at 3850 to 3912 to 3982... The NQ the mid to lower 12Ks. The YM, 28.2 to 30 to 31K. We caught the easy $ on our projected decline... Hanging on to it here and giving it time to resolve... is wise IMHO. There is an extraordinary amount of Fundamental Influences ahead. They have yet to be told, we have covered them repeatedly. Go Back and read prior commentaries if you recently arrived, thank you. The VIX and VXN - the levels are in prior commentary... This will be today's only update as more information needs to be observed for Price. I'll leave you with, what else... Patience. Thank you and have a Blessed Weekend. - HK
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
18
VXN - NQ Volatility / 30 Day VX Expectations - ES YM RTYWe see how important the Ledge remains. We traded Support first thing this morning, this is where and when we Closed our NQ SELLs. The balance of the Day was SOH. The intent is clear, the Hourly was over-sold, the Weekly remains deadly. These are enormous ranges and again, IF there is not a high probability setup with a clearly defined trade plan. 9/10 its a loser. NQ did exactly as indicated within the Range. The ES, although the Range expanded to 4140 (200SMA) to 4388, it did dip in @ the Upper Trend Line by a few Ticks. The VIX gave up the Ghost, as indicated there is a serious effort to keep it under control AND we have 10 trading days to Roll/Settlement. This is the sweet spot for Counter Trends to develop. YM / RTY - exact same trades... RTY is always used to park $ as it is easy to manipulate due to its weightings. We suggested this CT would evolve and patience was required as it can trade up to the Ledge, a Gap Fill, remains possible, but not probable. Were the Indices to Fill their overhead Gaps, it would imply a longer correction duration... this is why patience is so very important. It is best to permit the Trade to come to you as opposed to chasing it. This generally ends badly for most traders. There is far more Downside to come as the 200SMAs are wide open now. Observe where the 21/34/50EMAs are, know these levels, they are extreme in importance and the Algo's always using them for Fills. We have 2 competing BOTs, one - short term duration - and the other attempting larger fills on Daily Time Frames, when they are not competing, as we have observed, the ST ALGO runs the Range until the DT ALGO gets its Fill.
CBOE:VXN
by HK_L61
2
SP500 (SPX, SPY, ES) - Move UP Likely [Friday 9/10/21]It looks like SP500 dropped all the way into the Support Zone. We should get a move back up from here. Once again, as long as we stay in this Sideways Market condition, we don't have any real strength or momentum. We may stay inside here over the next week or so. We will likely move UP from here but I can't say for sure we will create an ATH on this move up. It depends on how we test the prior ATH. Will be watching...
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by TraderFromTheNorth
Dow Futures (YM): A Double Three Correction Is Taking PlaceShort-term Elliott wave view in Dow Futures ( YM) suggests that the decline from the August 16 high is unfolding as Elliott wave double three structure in a bigger wave ((4)) pullback. Down from there, the decline to $33628 low ended wave (W) in a lesser degree double three structure. Up from there, the wave (X) bounce unfolded as a zigzag structure where wave A ended at $34236 high. Wave B pullback ended at $33638 low and wave C ended in 5 waves structure at $34938 high thus completed wave (X) bounce. Below from there, the decline is unfolding as a lesser degree zigzag structure where wave ((a)) ended at $34121 low. Wave ((b)) ended in 3 swings at a $34554 high. While wave ((c)) is expected to end in between $33686- $33177 area lower. To complete the wave W lower & see a 3 wave recovery in wave X before further downside is seen. Near-term, as far as a pivot from $34938 high stays intact we expect short-term bounces to fail to look for a $32867- $31590 target area lower before the decline from peak gets mature & resume the larger trend.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
S&P500 [ES, SPY, SPX] - Sideways Ranging Market Until we break out of this range, we may not get many nice move days. This could last all week and possibly go into next week. However, once we broke out above or below this range... we should get some really nice big moves. Until then, I'm just going to tread lightly and practice more patience. Always know what market conditions are ideal for your trading strategy and what market conditions are not. I'm a trend trader, so I prefer trending markets over sideways markets.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by TraderFromTheNorth
2
NQ - ES YM RTY ZN TLT / Final Commentary - 10/7/2021 Macro Observations As the Global Economy continues to weaken, DEBT is beginning to weigh heavily on the same. Inflations have many Vectors - Monetary, Fiscal, and Confidence. Throughout the history of the United States, the "Debt Ceiling" has always been a Glass Roof. At present, decades of abuse since the 1980s have come home to roost. The result of multiple stimulus measures aimed at combating the pandemic's economic impact... Congress will run a budgetary shortfall this year equivalent to 13.4% of GDP or approximately $3.1 Trillion. It is axiomatic, Fiscal and Monetary Policies have failed. The crisis will continue to worsen over the coming years, 2022 it will reach its zenith and fail in the most unimaginable ways. Confidence is nearing all-time lows. A Panic is in the air within the "Investing Complex" - it has just begun for Retail Investors. Buy the Dip, the FED has a Put under the Equities Markets is slowly, ever so slowly giving way to the recognition, All is not at all well. The "Everything Must Go Sale" is gaining momentum. And by "everything" - we, indeed, mean everything for reasons which have been discussed repeatedly here within this sliver of TV. The Boat will tip, list, and capsize into 2022, for now, a healthy correction is ahead as indicated. Higher rates are axiomatic, the Federal Reserve will begin to move further into the Shadows with its Operations. Dark Pools will continue to position into the Sell. It won't be The End, it will, however, "feel" like it. There will be one last high to put bring an end to the Longest Bull Market in History. That will be THE END. For now, Buckle up, the Sportiness is ON. ______________________________________________________________________________________ NQ ES YM RTY ZN TLT The Nasdaq chart above illustrates the larger Daily Price Objective. How it gets there will be quick and dirty, a rather nasty affair as reality sets in, takes hold and dumps the sordid mess on its collective head. Whether or not there is a consolidation zone prior to the large DUMP, will depend upon Distribution patterns and the Budget news cycle as well as the middle of the UST Curve, namely the 10 Year Note. It is not a no-mans land, but the very inflection point on the Yield Curve. It is overdue, for reasons we have covered repeatedly. Over and over and over to the point, they no longer bare repeating. Simply review the past several months of commentary to EDU yourself. We have grown wary of rehashing our Thesis. It has been proven correct and is now in Trade. It takes time to form a top, it is a process until it becomes an event. The Technical Conditions have been growing increasingly weak for several months. 3x and 4x Divergences have been building on Larger timeframes and are now beginning to assert themselves. It will remain choppy to Down and as October unfolds, the larger Sell will arrive. The ES & YM will follow the NQ, the YM will remain the Laggard as will RTY until rotational failure will occur. It is best to observe the Weekly and Monthly TF's there for levels. We believe the 200SMAs, as well, the 400SMAs come into play in October, no later than November. One fairly significant cleansing of Speculative Juices among the Retail Investing Herd. ZN & TLT, again, for reasons we have covered repeatedly are in a confirmed SELL. We believe the 10 Year Note Yield will see new highs, the ROCs we noted are gaining immense traction. An explosive move higher is unfolding. 139s will print on TLT, ZN could dive well into the 120s. Debt Obligations will demand higher rates at a time when the DEBT edifice itself is going to be difficult to string together. Pushing on a string comes to mind. Conventional Correlations are DOA, insisting they are functioning is simply ignoring reality. Yesterday is today shall be tomorrow... best of luck to you in this Dogma. Lagarde and Powell both speak this morning, furthering the All Digital agenda. We will be absent for a number of trading Sessions as we relocate our arrangements over the coming days. Hopefully, to return no later than October 7th. Be well - HK
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by HK_L61
23
YM - Macro CommentaryEvergrande's exposure is $300Billion, US Institutions admit to $20Billion in Direct exposure. Total exposure is being hidden in Passive Funds. Does not matter, there are far larger issues. China will bail out Domestics... Sovereigns... not so much. Next. Distractions are always the Hero's welcome. ______________________________________________________________________________ On to the Important items which require attention. The Federal Reserve released a passive Statement published yesterday in a Summary Post below. What bares attention: 2024 became 2023, which turned into late 2022 and presently it appears one of two events is well underway. 1. November FED Meeting will announce Taper, which is well underway via the US Treasury as well as the FED. The Real ISSUE is - do they begin immediately or announce a later date of implementation - 5 weeks from now, the Bigger Taper will be announced as the FED clearly indicated a far more aggressive taper within 7 Months, concluding in MAY/JUNE 2022. This, as opposed to the usual 12/13 Month schedule of prior Tapering. 2. Once, the Tapering is done, Interest Rates will begin to be lifted. The topping process for the Indicies will manage to Blow off into Final 5/5 HIghs. For the ES by example - 5000. Within the next 4 to 5 weeks we should see an aggressive SELL take the Equities Complex into the Lows. These Objectives remain between the 200-400SMAs. For the ES - 3872.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by HK_L61
3
VIX - Daily Contract Range ( NQ ES YM )The VIX broke its .500 by 2 Ticks to pull back towards its 22.25 Support Level. VXN, no different, the pullback towards its Support from the Measure move of the GAP to the Highs. The indices will complete their retracement measured moves ahead of the FOMC tomorrow, entirely normal after yesterday's extremely large Volume Sells. We anticipated a Retracement back up ahead of the FOMC. It is normal and useful as the SELL Fills in the DOM await. Price will move to its 200SMA after this retracement is complete. The Die as they say is cast for Lower Prices, as we have indicated the 200SMAs will not hold but create a failure towards the 400SMAs. _________________________________________________________________________ NQ - Daily Range 14807 - 15708 The retracement Levels for SELL Fills: 15258 15364 Gap Fill Open The Objective is 12754 _________________________________________________________________________ ES - Daily Range 4294 - 1550 The retracement Levels for SELL Fills: 4421 4452 Gap Fill Open The Objective is 3982 _________________________________________________________________________ YM - Daily Range 33478 - 35548 The retracement Levels for SELL Fills: 34512 34753 Gap Fill Open The Objective is 28.200 to 31,000 ________________________________________________________________________ Summary Market Structure observations proved to be correct. The Trade Plan was executed and closed successfully. The Markets are weakening and moving to their 200SMAs, we do not anticipate this the level will hold but move lower towards the 400SMAs. Divergences that had been building for several months came to pass. 3x and 4x divergences take time to resolve, we are nowhere near this in time. As this unfolds it will fool a great many who have been trained to BTD. Inexperienced Traders are now touting Dow 37.000. Not going to happen, Price has a great deal of work in a Southerly Range. The Flash Crash began and ended yesterday. It will be back in force again shortly. Creating Lower Lows. We will see where the Backtest attempts to gain its FILL. The trendline or the Gaps above. There is no Gap and Trap, our indicators remain Bearish. Pirce has failed the Momentum Line. The 100 SMAs were tested, for now, the 50SMAs could be backtested with an overthrow. ROC's should return to their respective Centerlines @ 0. Micro Counts completed, a reversal is to be anticipated. _______________________________________________________________________________ Any retracement higher will be met with further and intensifying SELLS. "Buy the Dip" will be crushed again, after this retracement. The VIX remains the Guide. Trade Safe and Prosperous. - HK
CBOE:VX1!
by HK_L61
12
YM - 31K remains ObjectiveThe larger issue will be whether or Not they trap SELLERs looking for the Monthly Gap Fill @ 28.2K. The DOW has been weak on a realtive Basis given the 34053 has Broken, this was important Support @ Monthly. Support lies at the 34139 level on the Weekly closing basis. This will imbue SELLERs as technical support is @ 33120 followed by 31848. The channel would have to give way to imply a Flash Crash continues, it has been weak support for now. Real LT Support is at the 28,200 to 31,000 levels, a wider range should the Gap Fill on the Monthly basis be in Trade. It remains, far too early to provide a solid indication and trapping Gap Fill traders would be ideal for a sharp reversal. Again, far too early to indicate, but trade plans have worked well, we do not want to overstay our welcome as these Objectives come into Trade. Privately to PB we indicated the Flash Crash would occur this week, it was left out of the Public Domain for obvious reasons, good to see it come together. - HK
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by HK_L61
14
ES - When in doubt / Zoom OutThe ES MONTHLY Range is enormous, we see 1/5 ending @ 3588, 2/5 Ranged for less than 2 months prior to lifting off unimpeded for 7 Months. Month 8 did make a new high, although the 26 year probability of it holding and closing over is a low probability event as we indicated in early August. Many trading Paradigms have been tested and rejected within the Shorter Duration Timeframes. From my POV, the largest indication was the Break Away Gap in the DOW (YM) off 28,200. this had never occurred before - the anomoly at this level informed Traders, the Federal Reserve went ALL IN. And they did - M2 began an unprecedented move higher. The Longest Bull Market in History is within its Death Throes... the violence within Price will become even more extreme as we advance to the larger Bear Market ahead into 2022 after completing 5/5. It's what happens in between which should be of concern - what arrives thereafter is well beyond mere mortals ability to effect change. It will, no doubt in my mind alter Humanity itself in ways most all ill-prepared to conceieve. The United States has been successful in Exporting its "Culture" for decades, this too shall pass. Pride will give way to hubris at some point, by then it will be far too late to affect any menaingful change until a more rational generation takes up the challenge... perhaps. Many will simply give up. Between now and then, a great deal can occur. Death throes are violent affairs. The "Disclaimer" should read something like this: Price tends to behave irrationally within the current environment. All one can do is read the proverbial Tea Leaves - of which there are thousands... We are now trading the "Confidence Cycle" and we see how that collapsed in August. It is more akin to the large vessel in Harbor, slow to turn, methodical and not without challenges. Quite frequently over the past year, when we see Price dip-in to the 50SMA we see a violent rejection and retracement. We saw this 9 Days ago when the FED posted $12B in Coupon purchases to defend the Hourly "Death Cross' - it did not stick, but provided the Higher FIll for Wall Street and its friends only to move lower again. it is when we begin moving Down in rapid Extensions, out of Measured Moves... this is when the Indicies can become angry for a reversal. This is ahead into October. As noted in prior posts on several Timeframes from 15min, 4Hr, Weekly and now Monthly... we can devise a Trade Plan based upon entry into the larger Trend (Down) with the practical and only set of tools we have - Price/Data/Senitment. Drawdowns will be required, but will be rewarded. We see this in Bonds, patience... patience and furher patience. Setups requie time, money and patience. The Federal Reserve will do what it will to manage Price in to follow suit of the Data and Sentiment. We simply Obey, as this, again... is well out of our control. It's very Orwellian, dystopian and many other unseemly Nouns, Adjectives and Adverbs... those are for History to pen and stroke. The 4400 Level will be extreme in it's importance as should Price Fail within the 15min Falling Wedge, we can see the 100SMA being challenged next - the issue is every time this has cocurred, we have seen a reversal to defend the Uptrend. We are no Longer in an Uptrend. Anything can and will happen, we will need to be keen observers of a number of indications which were outlined in prior posts this weekend. There is no easy answer, none. Price will tell us evrything we need to know. Beyond Price, many of the Fundamental Vectors have been discussed repeatedly... in enough detail to priovide consideration(s) of the "Potential(s)" - this week is extreme in its importance. My intentions are to trade the Micro (15min) Objectives cautiously, not a Buyer, but a Seller. Buying the expected retracements has been wildly profitable, this too shall pass. We will limit any BTOs to 1/4 Size and now that we will no longer be able to Hedge SEP/DEC after Rollover, as the March spreads will be 120+ Ticks wide AND VX is price up Implied VX so the cost of PUTs are now begining to become less than desirable... the Challenges to Fix any poorly executed enteries - is negligible. In this type of environment, it is best to move slowly, methodically and observe the Tape. There is no substitute for Screen Time and observing the Key Periods when the Markets react. We have defined these times clearly - the "reaction times of day" - they should be well ingrained in those who are consistent readers of this Forum/Blog/Hub. Patience will be the best modalility for Trading this week, it will be quite violent. Be quick, book profits of size when you have them, DO NOT under any circumstances - OVER-Trade. It is temtpting to press Sells and let profits run when they are growing significantly. This week will take them away at some point, as the Volailtiy will cut both ways. We are closely watching the VIX at its upper Boundary of 22.52. As well, the VXN has been very reliable as an indicator for the NQ. Financials are a complete mess, we have BANK ranging between 4400 - 4500 and Yields becoming unsettled as the BOND Buyers missed an important Cross that has been setting up for several weeks. Bonds Sellers are in control now, Wednesday - Friday will confirm the BOND Markets issues. The Dollar will re-confirm them. Be well and Trade Cautiously - HK
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by HK_L61
11
NQ - Weekly Downturn Objecitves - Macro CommentsWhere to begin as there are far too many Data Points within the Macros. Consumer Senitment dropped sharply last month. This is always a precedent to Downturns, it closed @ 71 for the Month of August. 86/100 years Price has tested the 200SMA 8 Monthly Bull Bars, very low proabability. 9 Monthly Bull Bars, extremely low probability as this has not occured in 60 Years. Asia has been in turmoil with the US Markets ignoring the signs from China our preferred vector for disruption after the EU collision. The Government shutdown can be prevented as the Votes exist, although $4.5 Trillion in spending is going to face obstacles at a time when benefits continue to expire. Bonds are, again, acting poorly against the FX Accident we are forecasting for Currencies - it is frankly difficult to refer to them as such as they no longer are given their underlying Debt Market creation is evaporating quickly. The DX is the leader. Those of you who are/remain regular readers know - My thesis is simple and direct with respect to Bonds - they will not catch the "Flight to Safety Bid" as they no longer are Safe. Instead, they will follow the Markets in a "Positive Correlatrion" to the Downside. Yields will begin to rise again. We see the 10Yr's YCC effort abating short term and failing intermeidate term. Housing will suffer a correction, as Credit itself is tightening - All Credit. The Semiconductor Supply Shortage has been played down imho, it is far more severe than is being touted. Q3 EPS will be an unmitigaed diasater for most of the TECH Arena, it will be comical to observe the excuses mount. Suddenly, very suddenly, it will become REAL. We see the Producer Price Index far exceeeding the Consumer Price Index by over 100%. Which implies Producer are NOT passing along the majority of Price Stresses building. In turn, the implications are HIGHER PRICES ahead, Inflation is NOT ABATING, but accelerating. Independent Producers are unable to compete. Most of the Restaruants I frequent have increased their Prices 30% in a short period of time. This is a wealthy community, on balance there is a large pool of high income earners who can afford to spend for necessities. Average incomes among the Professional class in TECH and Services earn $400K+. A $200 Dinner for 2 is "affordable" and keeps the decreasing number of survivors afloat, for now. They are YOLO Prime, it's all about the Dollars. And speaking of the Dollar, it is tee'd up to rise as the Flight to Safety, Gold will follow suit as well after it completes it's pattern. Equities, Bonds and Real Estate will all comply with the Downturn. There has been a high degree of Bond BTD for months on end, this will come to a decided end as TLT begins to trade to 139s over the coming several months. We see a 7, 9 to 13 week correction with the attendant "Flash Crash" panic moment where Retail exits after the sufferage begins to weigh. This is normal, cyclical and acceptable. It does not mean the Equities Markets will be cut in one half, we don't believe this based upon the present projections. Breaking 3588 on the ES would, however, give us pause. Rather, we see 4/5 completing near and between 200-400SMAs, a good panic Dip-In below the 200SMA's to provide Fuel for new highs as the FED will, no doubt 10X down on demands for Powell's follow-on at the FED to "Amp it up" - we call it the "make em gag for it" moment. That is ahead and quite frankly, Long will be the Trade - imho. 5/5 will complete and that will be the end of the Longest Bull Market in History. It should conclude in 2022. We shall see as a great deal depends upon how DEBT itself re-appears under new arrangements Globally. IS there a Risk we will retest the Highs? We do not believe so, at least nothing dramatic in terms of a Retracement as they are being SOLD Wholesale. The Bond Markets repsonse to the FED will be instrucitve and quite llikley very disappointing for the Buy the Bond Dip Echo Chamber. They fail to see their own demise. It makes a Market, for certain. We'll oppose the Long Bond Trade all day. 1.75% - 2.00% will do it. THE BOND MARKET WILL PRICE IN "INFLATION" - it is this simple. Time - it's next week or 5 weeks for the real reaction, we believe the shorter end panic unfolds as the waters continue to grow murky Globally. NExt's week's reaction can be A large RT or to and through the lows, straight down. Geopolitical Risks loom large as we have outlined, the ECB is simply done, out of bullets and facing immense distrust within the EU. France is prepping for Bastille V.2 - the French are becoming Militant. CASH ($USD) will continue to be Hoarded, another strike against the Bond Complex. The hoarding will continue to GROW. Reverse Repos and US Treasury actions are draining Liquidity and Bond Demand has been met witin the United States, it is Sovereigns who will see the lasrgets haricuts on their bids. Repos are going to roll over, again, BOND Negative. Gold - we see the pattern completing and Gold taking off to new highs. Silver will provide come clear indications for teh strength of the move and whether the Highs are retested. Deflatioanry forces will ulitmately have the desired effect for Gold Bugs, we are not there. The DX can and will cause probems in the short term for GOLD. The DX will be the flight to safety FIRST, not Gold and certainly not Silver as touted. The Gold/Silver Gurus - for the 40+ years I have traded it, are always out over their Predition Skis, not that they are wrong about Economic Conditions... but with respect to Hype, they are always ahead of themselves for 44 years and counting. Since 1977, when I began trading/accumulating Physical metals. The same Sh_t Show... every decade. It is amazing. On to the the ES... We have the Death Cross, we have seen rejection take place 3 times. 50 fails, 100 fails, 200 awaits. EMAs have rolled over. We have a failing wedge into the 1/5 around 4380 - perhaps ahead of the FED. Wednesday or ahead of it, we would need to see a large Counter-Trend Up o the FED. Traders need to be on guard... we can bottom out and rallying on Powell's Meme. Watch for the lower High for a short term reversal. 4400 to 4370 - this range can provide support SHORT TERM, which ONLY serves to provide the LOWER LOWS into a FLASH CRASH. OR It can simply power down on Bond Yileds blowing up and finally pushing through the YCC actions to 4100. 3850-3900 is KEY SUPPORT in the weekly timeframe. We'll know as we approach the follow-thru. For now, keeping an open mind to Price is best. VX is expanding... 35 - 40 for VIX is our overhead Objective, it can go far higher. Anything can trade for Price, it can also DUMP far more. They are attempting to prevent - Straight down. Crypto - has simply been used as a Dispencery for Illegal Laundering and a large Basket for Trading. Regulations will do the rest.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
16
ES - August 4347 - 4542 DrawConsecutive Weekly Bars were 4 Ticks apart, the 2nd being the lower of the two for September... a Higher High for the ES, by a 7.5 handles. Tomorrow is "triple witching" and we should anticipate volatility resulting from the expiration dates of the three financing instruments - stock options, stock index futures and stock index options all expire simultaneously. In addition, Derivatives Sqare twice a year @ the BIS - March / September. The effects are usally quite dramtic and "Max Pain" is unreliable as there are far larger Pools of Capital squaring. We are four trading days from the next Federal Reserve pronouncements. Typically we see the TREND exert itself ahead of the FED. If the do nothing... or pander the same - then it will be October, that won't work for most... not at all as Q3 Earnings are going to be - horrific - and everyone within the Complex knows this. We are yet to hear actual warnings, instead we see teh Media edge off "issues" and "severe Issues" with Semiconductors.... Not Black GOLD, but Arrangement GOLD. It won't pass, buggy whips included. Sellers remain and loom quite large, Retail was squeezed once again today as Futures, Put options and Shares were sold into during the prior several lows below 4441. Friday's are always a low liquidity session - with one expcetion, 3x ad 4x expirations. Usually the expanding range counter-trends last from 3 to 7 trading days. Gap Fills are axiomatic as we move from Monday to Friday as the probability increases as we move throught the week. More than a few traders are wondering if we off to far higher levels. We had solid strucutre counts on the YM RTY ES and even the NQ although it was the laggard. These counts respectively 8/9 - 8/9 - 6/9 and 4/9 have reversed. We now see the range expand as indicated by the VIX / VVIX / VXN - as vol of vol began to fall shaprly we has our signals the trade would reverse, this was yesterday. It will be difficult for Price to move to close over last months high indicated in the chart above. It may get close, but it will take a monumental effort as Institutions are in a very clear pattern of SELLS, they abated as there were no buyers, even the Retail Dip buyer tossed in the towel. The same Dip Buyer is now looking for 16, 17 , 18K for NQ - 5000 for the ES and 2400 for RTY as well as 37K for the Dow after this reversal - and to be fair, for well over a year they have been 100% correct. It was not until last September 3rd we had a sharp correction unimpeded. It has well beyond one year Price has tested it's 200SMA. We can how the defense came in looking at the 1 Hour Chart - the Death Cross was not to be permitted. Quite often, reactions from the 100SMA 1Hr are violent as it is THE LIS for Professional Managers. No one wants this game to end when the Taxpayer is funding enormous Profits, No One. The issue is it cannot contniue given the Global Backdrop and the longer it does, the more severe the Drop. We do not believe it will fall more than 10 -15% - perhpas dipping in to 400SMA Dailies, but not exceeding 3588 as the 1/5 conclusion, this would imply a larger, perhpas 30 - 50 % correction, one that is not recoverable for a long time. There is price where it squares, we are approaching it. Sellers moved Price out of their own balance as they have more to distribute. The only real hedge they have left is Volatilty Instruments, these are worthy of following very closely to determine when and where they have comfort in beyond Delta Nuetral for downside Profits, they continue to build these positions as VX declines and Protection decreases in Price along with Vol of Vol or the VVIX Instrument. Know what to look for as we move through this period. It can and wil change very quickly, we firmly believe 200SMAs will be tested into October/November and would suggest the 400SMAs stand a higher probability of being an Objective. We believe 4509 - yeah, that's going to be a very tough Close EOD. It should be SOLD wholesale.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HK_L61
13
VIX - OCT / VIX & VXNFrankly this is all we need to watch, the VIX has consistently been Bid into Settlement only to fall back to LT Support. Will we retest the Highs or come up short and continue the Institutional SELLs. ES - 4451.50 is the Support Level for ES / 3493 - 3498 - 3509 - 3512 - 3521 YM - 34527 Pivot / 34994 Objective NQ - 15388 Pivot for higher and Micro Support We are SOH until 10 AM EST and watching how Macro Data impacts Price levels. It will be all quiet until the FED next Wednesday. The buyers strike was filled on the Squeeze, is there Fuel left? We shall see. DX - DX/JPY - Yields indicate Risk Off remain in trade. Flip a Coin, it will depend on BR / VG / FED and Inst's sitting on Hands for higher levels. *** Our bias remains R I S K OFF at levels for reversals.
CBOE:VX1!
by HK_L61
14
VIX - Potential for an Index Squeeze is building - CautionToday will determine as to whether this SELL takes a breather and provides a large retracement for the ES YM RTY and NQ OR Continues Buyers are on Strike, Sellers need to be the new Buyers. VIX Settlement is today - Price has a Gap to Fill Below. We will be waiting for the Range within the Micros and larger Daily Timeframes to resolve prior to entereing. _______________________________________________________________ FED annouced new Coupon Purchase Schedule and we see there is Support once again. SOH Until NYSE open and 10AM Inst Open. Prosperous trading - HK
CBOE:VX2!
by HK_L61
10
NQ - CPI / Yields + ES YM RTY - Structure SummaryIntra-Day setups remain our only trades as the VIX completes Settlement Tomorrow. Puts are again becoming attractive as this weeks Gamma Squeeze is beginning to become extended. AAPL -150 CALLS * Apple claims they will be unaffected by Semi Shortages TSLA - 750 Calls AMC - 56 Calls ______________________________________________________________________________________ 20 Weeks SemiConductor lead times. Q3 EPS warings begin next week VXN Pullback ZN broke the Long we are watching the 133.125 Level TLT weakening in structure sub 150 ***12735 is the Longer Term Price Objective into November ______________________________________________________________________________________ ES YM RTY remain in a Micro Squeeze on VIX Settle and pullback potential to 19.20 ES - remains within its Series, Resisitance is holding for now, the Objective is a full 50% retracement off the conter-trend long from lows. ES PO - Larger Resistance 4492 - 4505 YM - 34993 -35035 Objective RTY - Ranging between 2119 - 2335 ______________________________________________________________________________________ CL - 7161 breaks and we have the potential to return to the Weekly FHWB @ 77.00 CPI will have a large effect upon CL Previous highs acting as support... mean higher for now. ______________________________________________________________________________________ Food Prices rose 16% MOM... CPI Ex - Food/Energy Energy Prices are up significantly MOM Dollar / JPY is gaining strenght implies a clear flight to Safety and RISK OFF 109.83 sends it higher... far higher. 10Yr Yields remain just below a breakout at 1.417 Financials have failed at resitance repeatedly - 4521 the level of Micro Resistance ______________________________________________________________________________________ The FED removes theor gloves next week ahead of important elections. Namely It Canada intially as Treadeau is the Chimp to watch for the Green Agenda in North America... it is extreme in its importance for the Agenda. Europes selections will be followed closely as well as LaGarde has teed up her Chimps to advance the Agenda. California has the Governors recall which appear to be failing quietly. Gavin is a piece of work, little HItler disguised as a Sunbeam. ______________________________________________________________________________________ Geopolitics will have far more impact than has been priced in...
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
11