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XLV

XLV breakout? Watch retest, quite possibly a fakeout.Healthcare is mirroring 2015-2016's triangle breakout pattern here with an obvious move above the trendline. LOTS of people see this, and there are many people viewing this as a repeat of the post 2015 rebound. I'm not totally sold on that scenario however. 2015-2016's healthcare consolidation saw a lot of frauds busted and companies deflated. Currently, we do not really have that environment to rebound from aside from the pharma companies who are going to be taking hits for opioid litigation, and we're facing some major political headwinds. While I can see some recovery from opioid settlements, I don't think we're past that as a risk quite yet, and we're coming to face other risks from the political process. With that said, I DO like healthcare. It tends to be less cyclical than other sectors, and unlike utilities & reit's, this defensive sector isn't going to kill you if we see a return to inflation / reflation at any point. Watch the breakout for a retest, and keep an eye on what it does. Markets love to fake people out, especially when everyone and their mother is seeing a repeat of previous patterns in play.
AMEX:XLV
by GTStockmaster
XLV - DAILY CHARTHi, today we are going to talk about Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF and its current landscape. The opioid crisis has been plaguing the U.S at the most for nearly two years now. With scary numbers like the record of 47,600* overdose deaths caused by opioids in 2017 but the number seems to start slowdown since 2018 were the war against opioids gained some traction. In the justice field, some companies have already faced some sort of rebuke for involvement and even a bit of responsibility for the opioid crisis. For example *Jun 2019, Insys Therapeutics Inc. had to file for bankruptcy after being convicted for conspiring to bribe doctors to increase opioid sales, ending up in a deal with the federal government of $225 million. * Aug 2019, Johnson & Johnson was obligated to pay $572 Million, as Oklahoma ruled that the company intentionally played down the dangers and oversold the benefits of opioids. * Oct 2019, Johnson & Johnson was once more condemned by two counties of Ohio to pay $20.4 million, with the accusation of having helped the opioid crisis to spread. Now, that several healthcare companies are under investigation by the Federal Prosecutors in Brooklyn, into whether the company intentionally permitted that flood of opioids on the community. For now the U.S. Attorney’s Office in the Eastern District of New York it's just issuing subpoenas, but if they case sticks we might see what the murders of Julius Caesar saw, a pile of fire and anger from the people, so big that like Caesar butchers that were cast out of the city, the companies involved on this process can be drowned in liabilities and fines with the risk to be so badly damaged that may have the same fate of Insys Therapeutics Inc.and might hit this ETF that holds great exposure in the sector. The war against opioids it's just poised to grow up as every justice department across the country and every candidate that it's next to run on elections its eager to hang this trophy on the wall. *Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Thank you for reading and leave your comments if you like. To have access to our exclusive contents, join the Traders Heaven today! Link Below. Disclaimer: All content of Golden Dragon has only educational and informational purposes, and never should be used or take it as financial advice.
AMEX:XLV
by Igor-Silva
EPISODE 4/11: US HEALTH CARE XLV SECTOR-TA(TREND ANALYSIS) 2019'EPISODE 4/11: US HEALTH CARE(XLV) SECTOR Technical Analysis - 16th of July 2019. There is really not much to say. Profits in the health care sector are very reliable on the cycle. Since Trump took office, the cycle extended, and hence it formed a channel as noted in the analysis. One major risk that has always affected the health care sector is regulation and political pressures . In the upcoming 2020 election, if the Democrats(pro-regulation) take office, there might be major implications to the health care sector. In any case, 50 Quarterly/200 Monthly MA(Orange line) would be the Long-term Supports , in case the current bullish channel breaks. Structural supports are marked with Purple squares. This is just a brief "free" and very detailed analysis. Perhaps in the future I might form a premium group, to whose members I will provide all the details of my research. >> I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories .>> However, if you'd like to support me and learn more in the greatest of details , every thumbs up or follow is greatly appreciated ! -Step_Ahead_ofthemarket- Check my previous episodes on the US Sectors in the links to related ideas down below . EPISODE 3 : TECH EPISODE 2 : ENERGY * Full Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references- contact me.
AMEX:XLV
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
THE WEEK AHEAD: GDXJ, GLD, GDX, SLV, XLVEARNINGS No options highly liquid underlyings announcing earnings this week. BROAD MARKET EEM (35/19) QQQ (23/20) IWM (21/18) SPY (21/15) EFA (15/12) SECTOR EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS There's gold premium to be had (in them there hills ... ), particularly in the miners: Top 5 By Rank: GDXJ (86/36), GLD(86/16), GDX (63/30), SLV (62/20), XLV (60/15). Pictured here is a delta neutral GDXJ short strangle in the August expiry, paying 1.28 (.64 at 50% max), break evens at 30.72/40.28, and delta/theta metrics of -2.5/2.9. For those of a defined risk bent, the August 16th 29/32/38/41 is paying .92, with break evens at 31.08/38.92, and delta/theta metrics of 1.08/1.02. The XLV August 16th 88/97 short strangle is paying 3.10 at the mid, but the markets are so wide, I'm not sure how that'll price out in the New York session. Moreover, the background implied is about that of the broad market (15 versus SPY 15), so I'm unsure of whether that's worth pulling the trigger on even if markets tighten up, even though implied's in the top half of its 52-week range. IRA TRADES This has been a tough market if you're looking to acquire either broad market (e.g., SPY), bonds (e.g., EMB, HYG, JNK, TLT), or other divvy generating underlyings (e.g., IYR, XLU), with your basic options being to (a) wait for lower; (b) sell "not a penny more" puts and get paid to wait; or (c) throw some caution to the wind, take some risk, and sell closer to at-the-money and manage those trades reactively (i.e., rolling out for credit, duration, and cost basis reduction). I've opted for a few "not a penny mores," although the return on those isn't all that compelling even though it beats the basically 0% you get for staying in cash. (See, e.g., the HYG, SPY "Not a Penny More" Trades, below). Given my particular proximity to retirement, I'm not all that keen on acquiring a bunch of stuff at near all-time-highs, so I'm pickier and probably way more risk adverse than most, so naturally the "Not a Penny Mores" will not be for everyone since you're tying up quite a substantial piece of cash secured buying power to generate fairly mundane returns.* But just because I've kind of thrown in the towel over acquiring stuff in the short to medium term doesn't mean I'm not managing what's already there. Inevitably, there's always a covered call that may need to be looked at and/or a hedge that might be sensible to erect to cut covered call net long delta that is inevitably there. (See, e.g., Overwriting Post, below). * -- Although it's apparent that you can collect sufficient premium to emulate or exceed the dividend returns on some of these underlyings without actually being in the stock itself. It kind of begs the question: "Why be in stock at all?"
AMEX:GDXJ
by NaughtyPines
1
Sector rotation Cyclical to Defensive I heard some interesting commentary this week from the pros about watching for signs in the cyclical:defensive sector ratio. I put together this chart using (XLK+XLI+XLB)/(XLP+XLU+XLV). It is a composite of tech, industrials and materials indexes as a ratio to staples, utils and health sector indexes. The chart ratio is about 1:1 right now. In a late stage economy if earnings expectations plunge in the cyclicals the chart ratio should show the capital rotation into the defensive sectors. Worth watching for a signal!
AMEX:XLK
by dime
4
XLV recovering for SummerXLV pulled back sharply largely to do with a knee-jerk reaction to the Dems ‘Medicare for all’ (ie Europe-style government health service). Contrast this to the general Dec 2018 market collapse, and we see - a 7.2% W1 rise - a 50% W2 pullback - a W3 repeating the move, and running to the 1.618 fib The price carried on after December, but just anticipating a repeat of that move gives us an entry at 87.75 for 94.00. A 1.4% stop is comfortable (86.50) to give a 5:1 trade. Healthcare is a typically strong summer defensive, and notably (on the daily chart), after the outlier of Dec 2018, kept in its long-term channel in the April collapse.
AMEX:XLVLong
by adatherton
Time to Accumulate MylanShares of generic drug manufacturer Mylan has become very attractive, especially after today's overdone selloff. While the company has some hurdles legally (what drug company doesn't?) and has some internal housekeeping to tend to, the shares are becoming too cheap to pass up. At the time of writing, shares are trading at $23.30, down about 17% on the heals of it's latest earnings report. I don't believe this sort of selling is warranted but it gives value investors an attractive entry point to begin accumulating shares. It's blown thru supports, such as the 61.8% retracement (dark blue line) of a multi-year climb higher and some previous major resistance-turned-support levels (white dashed lines), which I've left on the chart for reference. The recent bounce gave some extensions to use, but today's selloff has pushed shares right past the first one, the 127.2% extension at $24.39. The next extension, the 141.4% at $21.75, is interesting because it coincides closely with the 78.6% retracement of the aforementioned multi-year swing higher at $20.63. Should those fail, we have one last extension to target, the 161.8% extension at $17.95. In essence, I'm buying a starter position today and will be adding if it dips to the lower levels, which really should be viewed as a major support zone between $18 and $21. With so many patents expiring for blockbuster drugs, Mylan will soon be able to pump out cheaper generics of them and they have an excellent track record of cranking out pills that are in demand. It'll be important to watch the headlines on this one, as there are legitimate concerns, but with P/E's at 5.3x next years estimates and 5.0x 2020 estimates, this is just too cheap to ignore. Be sure to have a game plan, including a stop loss appropriate to your risk tolerance (say, a back-to-back weekly close below $17.95, or a percentage you're comfortable with like -10%). Once I see some sustained uptrend taking place, or a major change in my thesis, I'll let you know! Until then, happy trading!
MLong
by EchoAlphaBravo
Confidence and A Conditional Reprieve Amid Oversold LowsAT40 = 11.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (hit an intraday low of 9.4%, oversold day #3) AT200 = 32.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (intraday low of 30.0%) VIX = 21.3 (a decrease of 14.7%) Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), fell as low as 9.4% on Friday. AT40 dropped as low as 8.6% intraday during the February swoon (February 9, 2018 to be exact). Since 1986, AT40 has closed below 9.4% only 92 trading days, and AT40 last closed below this level on January 21, 2016 at 8.3%. The day before that, AT40 closed at 7.4% and traded as low as 3.8%. AT40 obviously cannot trade much lower than these levels. AT200, the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs, is very important now as an oversold gauge. AT200 closed the week at 32.3%. In January, 2016, AT200 managed to get as low as 9.0%, a level last seen around the historic March, 2009 bottom. In other words, while AT40 suggests the market is set up for a sustained bounce, AT200 reminds me that these oversold extremes can get yet more extreme if panic gets a fresh heaping of fuel. Trading action around important technical levels also remind me that the market could go lower. The S&P 500 (SPY) is essentially back to flat for the year but is still 7.2% above this year’s double bottom. A retest will be in play if the index fails to win what is perhaps the stock market’s most important battle: a test of 200DMA support. During the February swoon, the S&P 500 only ONCE closed below its 200DMA. The index closed below its 200DMA on Thursday and set up Friday’s drama. The index gapped up just above its 200DMA in an effort to clear out bearish sentiment. Sellers quickly closed the gap and then failed to take the index lower. Buyers fought off a test of the intraday low and managed to churn the index toward the day’s open for a 1.4% gain on the day. It was a messy way to demonstrate the importance of the 200DMA! If buyers can follow through early this coming week, the technical pattern will look like a (short-term) washout of the market’s most motivated and panicked sellers. I call this a conditional reprieve in the middle of oversold conditions because of the criticality of this 200DMA pivot. {The S&P 500 (SPY) closed right on top of its 200DMA support after sellers almost ruined an opening gap up.} The NASDAQ had a battle similar to the S&P 500’s; the main difference came with an intraday pullback that did not create a complete reversal of the gap up. The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) did not fully reverse its gap above the 200DMA. Its 2.8% gain on the day has the look of a successful, and bullish, reversal of a 200DMA breakdown. {The NASDAQ gained 2.3% with a gap up and then close just below its 200DMA.} {The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) made a convincing leap with the reversal of the opening gap up only touching 200DMA support. QQQ ended the day with a 2.8% gain.} While the big indices fared well at the end of the day, other indices did not. Their poor performance underlined Friday’s conditional reprieve. Some of these sectors need to wake up to help the stock market mount a credible and sustainable bounce out of oversold conditions. The faders managed to keep these indices plastered with bearish sentiment. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) closed flat after sellers completely reversed the opening gap up. The Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) suffered a similar fate. This disappointment was even more critical given the wake of bank earnings from the likes of JP Morgan Chase (JPM). The iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) held no pretense of recovery as its fade resulted in a 1.0% loss and fresh 17-month low. ITB has dropped 17 of the last 18 trading days in a sign of a near complete market retreat from home builders. {The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) ended the day flat as it clings to the starting point of the big May breakout.} {Bank earnings failed to save Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF). Sellers faded the opening gap up to a flat close on the day. At least buyers were able to bounce back from a fresh 2018 intraday low.} {The iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) continued its epic slide with an 18th straight down day. The 1.0% loss closed ITB at a 17-month low.} As suggested by the breadth indicators, the sell-off is causing broad damage. The Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) had a solid uptrend coming out of the February swoon. XLV even broke out to a new all-time high in late August. Last week, XLV broke down solidly below its 50DMA support and nearly reversed all its gains from the breakout. {The Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) gained 1.5% in a return to the lower Bollinger Band. A 50DMA breakdown is not confirmed.} The volatility index, the VIX, dropped 14.7% to 21.3. The intraday high failed to top Thursday’s intraday high: a small positive for volatility faders. Still, the VIX is still considered elevated given its perch above 20. {The volatility index, the VIX, remains elevated despite a 14.7% pullback.} The VIX typically serves as a gauge of fear on the high side and complacency on the low side. If we had an equivalent for government economic policies, say a “GIX”, the GIX might be at record lows. Confidence is of course half the battle of economic performance and confidence is tangibly oozing from D.C. (from one side anyway!). With consumer confidence at record levels, unemployment down to historic levels, and economic growth impressively strong, the rhetoric accompanying policymakers represents a euphoria perhaps only matched by the complacency of the “Great Moderation” when the Federal Reserve (mostly under Chair Alan Greenspan) was heralded for ushering in a time of lasting economic prosperity…just ahead of the Great Recession. If you knew nothing about economics, you might conclude this time around that the U.S. really has figured out how to repeal the laws of economic cycles. In particular, Larry Kudlow, the leader of President Trump’s National Economic Council, is beating a steady drum of unapologetic and triumphant confidence. In a CNBC interview, Kudlow issued a sound bite that *I* am confident will one day in the not-so-distant future sound cringeworthy to those of us who follow economics. Kudlow declared: “We are in a hot economic boom. There’s no end in sight.” Other key points from this interview… Not worried about the Fed killing the economy. It has staying power. {Me: This message is consistent with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin’s reassurances about monetary policy. Contrast these claims with President Trump’s worries over rate hikes.} Biggest blue collar employment boom since the 1980s. In 2018, U.S. entered an economic boom that no one thought was possible. Loves the skepticism. Proved the skeptics quite wrong. Don’t think that’s going to change. I fully understand why Kudlow is blowing the trumpets and beating the drums. For example, the display is an “eye-for-an-eye” response to the shrill skeptics who denounced the policies that helped kicked the economy into a higher gear. However, as an investor and particularly as a trader, I cannot help but think about the contrary implications of important government officials claiming that the economic good times will continue as far as the eye can see. Such claims defy experience and the laws of economic/business cycles. Such claims help form a foundation of hubris which can lead to policy errors. My unavoidable wariness feels even more poignant when in parallel I stare at charts showing a stock market violently and sharply falling off its all-time highs. I am not worried about over-optimism today or this quarter, but it is something that makes me stand up and take notice. (At the end of the chart review, I include a link to a Bloomberg Politics video for more context on Kudlow’s economic triumphalism). For now, I am keenly focused on my strategy for trading oversold market conditions. The stock market is on day #3 of oversold conditions. The average oversold period lasts about 5 days and the median is around 2 (50% below 2 and 50% above 2). At the current oversold depths, it could easily take another 2 or 3 days to climb out of trouble. The longer an overperiod lasts, the more bearish the implications. Similarly, the more frequently the market returns to oversold conditions, the more bearish the implications. The drama at the 200DMAs is extremely important context for these bearish implications. A stubbornly oversold market with an S&P 500 and NASDAQ below 200DMAs is a recipe for fading rallies. {Mean and Median Duration Below Given T2108 Threshold} The drama at the 200DMAs made me a little less aggressive. I sold my S&P 500 call options immediately after the open. I added to my Caterpillar (CAT) put options. I took profits in other bullish positions. I selected two small fades with a short on Roku (ROKU) which was up as much as 10% at one point, and I bought shares in Direxion Daily Russia Bear 3X ETF (RUSS). On the bullish side, I doubled down on put options on the ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (UVXY) and opened a calendar call spread on Nvidia (NVDA). I become an aggressive buyer of SPY and QQQ call options on a combination of indices trading well below their lower Bollinger Bands (BB), volatility surging, and AT40/AT200 reaching toward historic oversold lows. Again, with earnings season coming up, I am leery of taking on a lot stock-specific risk as part of the oversold trading strategy.
SP:SPXLong
by drduru
GILD for a Long PlayShares of GILD have recently broken out above resistance around $74 and have since successfully tested and held it as support (dashed green line) on two different occasions. They look destined to at least test the falling trend line (red line), and I think there's a good chance we break through that resistance to establish a new trend higher. I'm a buyer via calls, specifically the November $80 calls because they will carry me through the next earnings report. That's not to say I'll hold them through the release, but I suspect premiums will elevate leading in to the report and that should help bolster the bullish position.
NASDAQ:GILDLong
by EchoAlphaBravo