Sector Winners and Losers week ending 9/13Materials (XLB) led the sector list for the week, getting a massive boost on Tuesday and Wednesday after the Infrastructure bill passed the Senate. Industrials (XLI) also got a boost from the bill.
Financials (XLF) contented for the top spot, gaining from rising Treasury yields that positively impact performance for the sector. However, yields dropped on Friday, and the sector dropped back to third place.
The defensive sectors of Consumer Staples (XLP) and Utilities (XLU) also ended the week near the top of the list, signaling caution throughout the week as investors worry about rising cases of COVID in the US and around the world.
Energy (XLE) had a few good days but ended the week in the last place.
XLF
AEGON 15% upside potentialThe long term view states that the up trend is still intact, moving to a shorter time frame we can see that the down swing line was broken and the price closed at 4.42$ just above the 4.40$ resistance turned support level. On another note, yesterday's candle was a spinning top indicating balance between the bulls and the bears, which puts doubt on our bullish scenario. Nonetheless, going long at market open stop at a close below 4$, target 5.10$ (May high)
#XLF
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 8/6Several sectors rallied into the lead throughout the week, but Financials (XLF) came from behind to end the week as the top sector. On Friday, the sector added 2% on top of gains earlier in the week. The rally came as employment data was better than expected, sending Treasury yields higher and brightening the prospects for big bank performance tied to the yields.
Utilities (XLU) enjoyed the top spot on Monday and early Tuesday, rallied again on Thursday, but fell to second place on Friday. The defensive sector shows investors were cautious throughout the week as indexes set new records amidst worries the rising Delta variant might pull back the economic recovery.
Health Services (XLV) took the lead spot on Wednesday, likely on the view that there will be an increased demand for vaccines and therapies that can handle the resurgence of the pandemic.
Consumer Staples (XLP) was the only sector to decline this week, putting it at the bottom of the sector list.
$XLF Financials failing at resistanceThe XLF ETF which tracks the financial sector of the U.S market has been battling to break resistance at $37 and the 50 day moving average. With the push lower in yields, fundamentally this is generally quite negative for banks and financial firms as this substantially decreases their profit margins.
We could potentially retest the bottom of the range at $35.00 and if that breaks then $33 could be in site which is around the 200 day moving average.
FAZ Weekly - swan sighting?FAZ weekly chart presented and comparing last two price run ups to current condition.
AO appears to want to go positive. See chart for price reaction last two times this occurred on the weekly.
RSI bouncing off 18 month low with harmonics generally supporting a turn soon. Plenty of upward room for the stoch, but it does appear to be faltering a little here.
Note large volume buying of FAZ starting mid-June 2021 and a lot of overall interest in this derivative since just before the COVI-crash.
This volume isn't retail.
They say you cant' predict a black swan event but FAZ seems to be sensing something wicked.
Not financial advice.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 7/16The sectors ended the week in a very character than they started the week. None of the leading sectors early in the week were leading by the end of the week.
Financials (XLF) started the week in first as investors anticipated earnings reports from big banks that began on Tuesday. By Friday, the sector slipped to the middle of the list, ending the week with a -1.61% decline.
Technology (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC) took over the top spots for Tuesday and most of Wednesday. They also reversed downward and ended the week with losses.
The only sectors to end the week with gains were Utilities (XLU), Consumer Staples (XLP), and Real Estate (XLRE). The defensive sectors gained ground at the end of the week as worries over the economy grew among investors.
Energy (XLE) was at the bottom of the list, dropping -7.89% this week. OPEC+ continues to have disagreements, destabilizing the sector along with the price of oil. Add the fears of a slowing recovery, and investors are exiting positions in the sector that performed well in the first half of 2021.
BAC - Double bottom on dailyHappy saturday traders! Next week, we have a load of bank earnings and we start off with BAC and WFC tuesday morning. Here's my thoughts on BAC: Double bottom pattern on daily TF and put/call ratio of .76 . On Friday, 3800 38.5 7/16 calls were bought during the day. Options are looking for a 3.5% implied move. GL! I will post a WFC analysis later!
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 6/25Energy (XLE) and Financials (XLF) topped the sector list this week. Energy continues to rise while crude oil prices hit record highs. Financials (XLF) is recovering along with yields on Treasury Bonds, which both were hit by the hawkish stance from the Fed last week.
At the bottom of the sector list were the defensive sectors. Utilities (XLU) was the only sector to decline this week.
The growth sectors mixed with the cyclical sectors in the middle of the list.
XLF - IWM fractalXLF has been following a perfect IWM fractal so far. i overlayed IWM recent accumulation pattern on xlf. Lines up with what i think will be a further rotation away from value and into tech/growth next few weeks. accumulated longs at the lows last friday, and will leg into couple month out calls if it can consolidate like this.
The Credit Cycle - Free Wealth is Over?Idea for Macro:
- Financial sector selling off heavily.
- While it's early to call a bear market, the exhaustion gap at an all time high is a reasonable signal for market reversal.
- XLF, XLE and FAAMG have been holding up the broader markets at this high... Cracks appearing?
Underlying conditions:
- Institutions will invest based on 18 months into the future (Druckenmiller).
- There are 3 relevant possibilities for the banks:
(1) Inflation is sticky, interest rates will be raised in the future, within 18 months. This actually increases the banking sector's profitability, but the price is declining because they have been speculated above valuations.
(2) Inflation is transitory, interest rates will not be raised, and we will have negative real rates. This will hurt the banks' profit margins. This is a possibility due to the 40 year demand-push deflation the US has been in (see Oil/CPI).
(3) More importantly, the economy will decelerate (deflationary). Liquidity components of the Fed B/S have been decelerating and global credit impulse (lending) has gone negative. No more easy lending, less loans, meaning less earnings for the banks. Investors know this and are exiting the overheated trade.
Either way for inflation, global liquidity and global credit impulse are turning down, so the Long Volatility trade seems to be ideal.
Why did global risk assets rise to such insane levels? Credit impulse - easy lending. Now that supply of sugar is gone. Only one thing left that can happen.
GLHF
- DPT
#XLF: Financial names look strongI like the setup here for some quick gains in this ETF. Downside risk is very low compared to potential upside within the next 10 days give or take.
Longer term this could go higher, value stocks are strong in general due to inflation concerns and the reopening momentum.
Best of luck if taking this trade.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
XLF and others might lead the wayAs noted in my previous ideas about $SPY (bearish), $XLF, $XLI, $IWM, $XLE might be the catalyst that leads the markets higher. $XLF tapped the 8day EMA twice before going back to positive which to me shows resilience with a market that has no sense of direction. A nice hammer doji before breaking off into Memorial Weekend. XLF might try and tap the upper band (38.50 - 39) before fading back to middle channel.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 5/14It was a mix of defensive and cyclical stocks that led the sector list this week. Only three sectors ended the week with gains, while the high growth sectors took the biggest declines.
Consumer Staples (XLP) topped the list with Utilities (XLU) in fourth place. Both are defensive sectors for investors. Real Estate (XLRE) was lower in the list but still outperformed the sectors.
Financials (XLF) and Materials (XLB) joined Consumer Staples as the only sectors to end the week with gains.
Technology (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) were at the bottom of the list. Both contain high growth companies that are likely to be impacted by inflation and potential increases in interest rates. They started to recovery on Thursday and Friday after the US Dollar and Treasury interest rates dropped.