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XLF

$XLF tons of overhead supply ; will the gaps fill?Financials on full display going into earnings . Will those GAPS fill? Keep them on your radar. #XLF #JPM #C #BAC Interest Rates continue to rise on 30 year home mortgages and the federal interest rates consumers begin feeling the pain of being both pushed out of the market and every direction they turn. In most cases higher interest rates help the banks and some could say, “higher rates drive up prices, which increase companies earnings and consumer price index ( CPI );” however, I think many are overlapping the current with past recessions. In most cases that may work – but this time isn’t like any time of our past. The amount of headwinds on the global fronts and out of control printing of debt holistically. In any case, I am cautious on banks with all the segments of their lives being impacted with oil , shipping, economic contraction, rising rates, etc. not to mention rising wages being outpaced by inflation and poverty increase by x-hundreds of thousands per month. Tons of overhead supply that could be potential opportunities for entries on rejection. WILL THE GAPS FILL? ** What happens when households cannot afford to acquire loans and it’s too late for them to refinance their homes… just food for thought.
AMEX:XLFShort
by bsdvs23
XLF (Financial Sector ETF) - Support Bounce Hammer Candle - 1DXLF (SPDR Financial Sector ETF) price has bounced up from 0.618 fibonacci support on the daily chart. Entry (long): $37.53 Take Profit +3% (exit): $38.66 Stop Loss -1.5% (exit): $36.95 Note: Many Finance related stocks have a similar pattern on either the Daily or 4-Hour charts. Could see an industry-wide bounce up if fibonacci support levels hold this month. -BAC (Bank of America) -WFC (Wells Fargo) -C (Citi Group) -JPM (JP Morgan Chase) -MS (Morgan Stanley) All content is Not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
AMEX:XLFLong
by NoFomoCharts
XLF building a base on demand zoneXLF is currently in Range on Macro Trend, and Uptrend on Micro Trend "OB" means Order Block " ( def: Big Money Buying/Selling prior to a directional move) * 5m means 5 minutes TA: -we hit session low of 39 (3/30/22) a psychological number in a demand zone -break above 40 for macro uptrend to continue -multiple Time Frame Order Blocks from 38.95 to 39.64 ( long/short positions being built depends on Market Environment and Price action ) Looks like liquidity is being accumulated for the upside run to 40-41.50 buy the dip 39.04 an 39.25 depending how price action is moving. look for structure to hold above 39.50 and the break above 40 confirms bullish segment if Market Segment and Macro Trend Align with micro trend All of this is my predications, and personal opinion. Thank you for reading.
AMEX:XLF
by quantumiam
1
Falling Wedge- Bullish - UpdateJust posting a quick update here as GS has gotten beaten down as the broader markets pulled back but has seemingly found some support after reclaiming its 20-Day SMA. GS is lagging the XLF at the moment, however, looks to be setting up nicely for a big breakout. GS respected support nicely with a triple bottom around the $228 mark. GS is holding within a nice falling wedge along with forming an inverse head and shoulders & bullish Gartley harmonic pattern on the hourly timeframe. Additionally, Bollinger bands are squeezing along with some bullish hidden divergence on the RSI on the 4-hour timeframe, and a golden cross on the MACD on the daily timeframe. Bullish and will be looking for a breakout from this wedge (Broader Market Conditions Permitting). Just some support and resistance levels to watch along with some RSI-based supply and demand zones to keep an eye on in the meantime- Price Targets & Previous charts are attached below - Falling Wedge - MACD Cross on the Daily Timeframe - Sitting on the 20-day SMA - Bullish Gartley Harmonic Pattern Formed on the Hourly Timeframe - Bullish Hidden Divergence on the RSI on the 4-Hour Timeframes as well PT1- $340.23 PT2- $342.28 PT3- $344.08 PT4- $345.73+ 4-Hour Timeframe Hourly Timeframe Previously Charted
NYSE:GSLong
by jacobosiason7
2
XLF Long XLF Analysis done on daily candles. The financial sector has been one of the more resilient sectors on the stock market in 2022, with most stocks managing to hold their key levels and not declining as severely as major markets. When analyzing bank stock performances, we see that they have lagged way behind many other industries since the Covid crash in recovery, but this year may bring change to that. With interest rates expected to increase starting in March, banks and other financial companies are projected to benefit from this monetary policy change. We’ve been primarily focused on the XLF ETF to gauge overall health in the financial sector; this is an ETF (exchange traded fund) that holds assets such as Berkshire Hathaway, JPMorgan, Back of America…etc. Keeping an eye on this ETF is critical if you’re interested in trading or investing in the financial sector considering it allows you to see how the overall industry is performing. Keep in mind that banks are known to be slow movers, so their breakouts may not be as robust as a tech stock breakout would be, but the patient will be rewarded in the long run.
AMEX:XLFLong
by hyperstocks
Market Outlook Feb 14th--->Feb 18th $SPYBreakdown of Each chart Top left - S&P 500 / General market Bottom left - QQQ / Nasdaq / Tech sector Top right- XLF / Financial sector Bottom right- Dollar index Recap Investors went on another wild ride this week, but ultimately US stock indices finished modestly below where they started. Trading remained choppy as traders digested another slew of earnings reports around the release of key US inflation data. Even before the CPI print inflation worries percolated, copper, iron ore, timber and coffee prices surged garnering attention. Quarterly earnings conference calls were rife with commentary about the expectation that companies will continue to raise prices through the remainder 2022 to offset rising supply chain costs. Also, a protest by Canadian truckers over vaccine mandates shut down several key bridges on the US/Canada border resulting in significant down time at multiple US automobile OEM facilities. WTI crude hit a fresh 8-year high on Friday spurred by reports that the US government now believes Russian President Putin has made the decision to invade Ukraine. Thursday’s January CPI release spooked markets yet again, after coming in substantially hotter than already-goosed market expectations, reaching the highest annual pace since 1982. The upside surprise in the core index was spread across a wide range of categories, including some that have been heavily influenced by bottlenecks and others where price pressures could be viewed as more likely to stick. Stock markets came under pressure and Treasury yields immediately shot up on the news, led by the 2-year yield which surged 25 basis points, the largest daily gain since 2009. The 10-year yield retook 2% for the first time since 2019, but investors were also quick to fret over the narrowing of spreads or the curve flattening and what it might signal about future growth prospects. Futures markets quickly saw the odds of a 50 basis point March rate hike rise above 50%. By Friday, investment houses were aggressively ratcheting up their Federal Reserve tightening expectations after FOMC voter Bullard called for a 50bps hike in March, while also indicating significant quantitative tightening (balance sheet reduction) and perhaps intra-meeting hikes may also be necessary to get inflation under control. For the week, the S&P lost 1.8%, the DJIA was off 1%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.2% In corporate news this week, Disney shares rose after reporting strong quarterly results, boosted by robust theme park attendance and higher than anticipated streaming service subscriber growth. Pfizer dropped after issuing a weaker 2022 outlook than expected, and late in the week said it would delay its application to the FDA to expand its Covid vaccine to kids under 5 until April. On the supply chain front, Intel’s CEO said the company expects chip wafer supply to remain tight through 2023, while FMC Corp noted they have seen initial signs of packaging costs easing. Republic Services confirmed plans to buy US Ecology for $2.2B in cash, and Republic added it plans to pursue additional tuck-in acquisitions in the environmental solutions sector.
TVC:DXY
by WallSt007
$XLF long idea in a higher rate environmentWith the Federal Reserve announcing rate hikes starting in March, financials should prosper. Higher interest rates ($TNX) means that it costs more to borrow money which is a bullish sign for banks. The economy is also not showing any signs of slowing down, commodities continue to move higher and job reports signal a strong economy. This can be translated to assuming that consumer spending will not slow down; low supply on high demand shows that they will continue to spend and borrow money. Also, if we look at Treasury Bonds ($TLT), we see some serious selling even though the Federal Reserve continues to purchase. This could lead to a stronger Dollar ($DXY) and a move from growth equities ($ARKK, $QQQ) into cash or savings accounts. During rate hikes, history shows an inflow into companies with high cash reserves, cash flow, and high dividends. The technical side of $XLF shows relative strength while indices continue to fall. On the weekly timeframe, we can see a clear bull flag pattern that has broken out and if we close above $40 today, we have confirmation. MACD shows a bullish crossover is near and RSI is healthy. Targets are 43, 45 and 47. OptionsSwing Analyst Daniel Betancourt
AMEX:XLFLong
by optionsswing
Market Outlook Feb 7th--->Feb 11th $SPYBreakdown of Each chart Top left - S&P 500 / General market Bottom left - QQQ / Nasdaq / Tech sector Top right- XLF / Financial sector Bottom right- Dollar index Recap for last week. Momentum from last Friday’s melt up in US equity markets carried over this week when US trading got under way. Oversold conditions coming out of a horrific January opened the door for a modest reawaking in growth stocks amid a likely heavy dose of short covering as the calendar turned to February. Investors debated whether the choppy, violent bounce in equities was anything more than a typical bear-market-type rally ahead of catalytic earnings reports and central bank meetings scheduled for later in the week. WTI crude oil prices continued to surge, surpassing the $90 mark after OPEC+ producers stayed the course regarding expected output increases at their February conclave. Also EU CPI figures remained stubbornly high, and ongoing hawkish Fed rhetoric kept investors on edge about the expect path of Federal Reserve tightening. By midweek, risk assets, namely equities, came under some pressure after a few high-profile earnings duds combined with hawkish, overseas central bank commentary. Several BOE members dissented to Wednesday’s 25 basis point hike, wanting to see England’s central bank raise by a more aggressive 50 bps instead. Following that, the European Central clearly pivoted as ECB Chief Lagarde was unwilling to repeat the recent mantra that rates were “unlikely” to rise this year. The US dollar softened against both the Pound and the Euro . Rates moved up globally and spreads between Germany and the periphery widened. By the end of week the German BUND reached +20 basis points. Trading remained very choppy into and after Friday’s January US employment report blew away depressed expectations on nearly all accounts brining focus squarely back onto the US Federal Reserve . The 5.7% y/y gain in hourly wages stuck out in particular. To this point, there has been little indication in the composition of the rise in CPI that wage pressures are passing directly through to prices, but that concern may now be increasingly on the Fed’s radar. The US 2-year Treasury yield jumped above 1.3% while futures markets saw the odds of a 50 bps hike at either the March or May FOMC meeting creep higher. The benchmark US 10-year yield moved back above 1.9%, levels not seen since late 2019 while EU rates continued to track higher. For the week, the S&P gained 1.6%, the DJIA was up 1%, and the Nasdaq added 2.4%. In corporate news this week, earnings season entered its stride, with a slew of major tech companies reporting quarterly data. Facebook parent Meta’s shares saw a historic post-earnings drop this week, hitting their lowest since mid-2020, after issuing an ugly forecast amid pressure from competition and further fallout from iOS privacy changes. Google parent Alphabet posted a beat on its top and bottom line, as its ad revenue jumped 33% year on year to over $61B, and the tech giant announced a 20-for-1 stock split. PayPal shares hit a two-year low after cutting its user numbers outlook and cautioning that growth would be hit by supply chain pressures, inflation , and weakening e-commerce activity. Snap issued a beat on revenue, earnings , and user growth, sending shares up over 50%, recouping and then some earlier losses spurred on by the Facebook fallout earlier in the week. AMD reported a hot quarter, recording record revenue and forecasting a strong 2022, despite ongoing supply chain issues. Clorox posted an ugly miss on EPS and guidance, citing a challenging cost environment. AT&T dropped after confirming plans to cut its dividend following the spin-off of WarnerMedia.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by WallSt007
Market Outlook Feb 7th--->Feb 11th $SPYBreakdown of Each chart Top left - S&P 500 / General market Bottom left - QQQ / Nasdaq / Tech sector Top right- XLF / Financial sector Bottom right- Dollar index Recap for last week. Momentum from last Friday’s melt up in US equity markets carried over this week when US trading got under way. Oversold conditions coming out of a horrific January opened the door for a modest reawaking in growth stocks amid a likely heavy dose of short covering as the calendar turned to February. Investors debated whether the choppy, violent bounce in equities was anything more than a typical bear-market-type rally ahead of catalytic earnings reports and central bank meetings scheduled for later in the week. WTI crude oil prices continued to surge, surpassing the $90 mark after OPEC+ producers stayed the course regarding expected output increases at their February conclave. Also EU CPI figures remained stubbornly high, and ongoing hawkish Fed rhetoric kept investors on edge about the expect path of Federal Reserve tightening. By midweek, risk assets, namely equities, came under some pressure after a few high-profile earnings duds combined with hawkish, overseas central bank commentary. Several BOE members dissented to Wednesday’s 25 basis point hike, wanting to see England’s central bank raise by a more aggressive 50 bps instead. Following that, the European Central clearly pivoted as ECB Chief Lagarde was unwilling to repeat the recent mantra that rates were “unlikely” to rise this year. The US dollar softened against both the Pound and the Euro. Rates moved up globally and spreads between Germany and the periphery widened. By the end of week the German BUND reached +20 basis points. Trading remained very choppy into and after Friday’s January US employment report blew away depressed expectations on nearly all accounts brining focus squarely back onto the US Federal Reserve. The 5.7% y/y gain in hourly wages stuck out in particular. To this point, there has been little indication in the composition of the rise in CPI that wage pressures are passing directly through to prices, but that concern may now be increasingly on the Fed’s radar. The US 2-year Treasury yield jumped above 1.3% while futures markets saw the odds of a 50 bps hike at either the March or May FOMC meeting creep higher. The benchmark US 10-year yield moved back above 1.9%, levels not seen since late 2019 while EU rates continued to track higher. For the week, the S&P gained 1.6%, the DJIA was up 1%, and the Nasdaq added 2.4%. In corporate news this week, earnings season entered its stride, with a slew of major tech companies reporting quarterly data. Facebook parent Meta’s shares saw a historic post-earnings drop this week, hitting their lowest since mid-2020, after issuing an ugly forecast amid pressure from competition and further fallout from iOS privacy changes. Google parent Alphabet posted a beat on its top and bottom line, as its ad revenue jumped 33% year on year to over $61B, and the tech giant announced a 20-for-1 stock split. PayPal shares hit a two-year low after cutting its user numbers outlook and cautioning that growth would be hit by supply chain pressures, inflation, and weakening e-commerce activity. Snap issued a beat on revenue, earnings, and user growth, sending shares up over 50%, recouping and then some earlier losses spurred on by the Facebook fallout earlier in the week. AMD reported a hot quarter, recording record revenue and forecasting a strong 2022, despite ongoing supply chain issues. Clorox posted an ugly miss on EPS and guidance, citing a challenging cost environment. AT&T dropped after confirming plans to cut its dividend following the spin-off of WarnerMedia.
TVC:DXY
by WallSt007
Market Outlook Jan 31--->Feb 4th $SPYBreakdown of Each chart Top left - S&P 500 / General market Bottom left - QQQ / Nasdaq / Tech sector Top right- XLF / Financial sector Bottom right- Dollar index The Beijing Winter Olympics are almost here, shadowed by boycotts, fear of a possible Russian attack on Ukraine and of course the coronavirus. There’s been no shortage of issues for other nations to protest about, from the case of the missing tennis star to Beijing’s comprehensive effort to snuff out free speech and a free press in Hong Kong. But the biggest source of ire from the West and elsewhere has been China’s detention and treatment of more than a million Muslim Uyghurs in Xinjiang. The presence of thousands of foreign athletes from countries that value free speech may be risky for President Xi Jinping, who seeks to cement (maybe lifetime) control over China with a third term. Avoiding controversy could be key. As for athletes, keep an eye on Eileen Gu, China’s American-born star. Cryptocurrencies won’t go up just because they’re going mainstream, at least according to Goldman Sachs. There’s growing concern about criminal activity in the digital asset market, too, while regulators wonder whether 18% yields on crypto savings accounts might be too tempting. Russian President Vladimir Putin may be a fan of crypto mining, but memories of 2018 are sparking fears among the Bitcoin faithful. Biden has been saying that his economic plan is working, and America’s GDP, record job growth and rising wages arguably support his case. But consumer confidence has yet to reflect that, with supply chain issues and (relatedly) the “I” word being all the rage. Many economists have predicted inflation will fall to 3% as the year progresses, and the Fed’s rate-hike plans are part of that. But others see inflation being stickier. An omicron subvariant appears to be even more contagious than the original fast-spreading strain, U.K. health authorities said, though vaccine booster shots remain an effective shield. The new version is already in dozens of countries, including across America. Data from contact-tracing shows the subvariant, BA.2, spreads more frequently in households, where the rate of transmission is 13.4%, compared to 10.3% for the original omicron. In the U.S., some 60 million households have availed themselves of free Covid-19 tests being distributed by a Biden administration program. A drug developed by Merck showed activity versus omicron in six lab studies, raising confidence it may be useful in battling the variant. While the initial omicron wave has peaked in some places, worldwide it continues to infect millions daily. There were 3.5 million new confirmed infections and 10,200 Covid-related deaths on Thursday alone. Over the past two years, there have been 364 million confirmed cases and 5.6 million deaths , though the actual numbers are likely much higher. Airlines are avoiding much of Ukrainian airspace as Russia continues to mass troops and equipment on that nation’s borders, stirring global fears of another unprovoked attack on its neighbor. Many carriers have largely avoided overflights since 2014 following the deaths of 298 people from 10 countries—including the Netherlands, Indonesia and Australia—when a Russian-made missile downed Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 in eastern Ukraine. An international probe concluded Moscow-backed separatists who have been fighting Ukrainian forces since Russia annexed Crimea were behind the mass killing. Russia has denied any role, though Australia and the Netherlands accused the Kremlin of complicity. Meanwhile, the U.S. is calling for a United Nations Security Council meeting in which Russia would be asked to explain its moves toward Ukraine, a session that may evoke memories of a 1962 UN meeting following the discovery of Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba . Ukraine’s leaders, for their part, appear less worried that an attack is coming.
TVC:DXYLong
by WallSt007
Bearish Divergence on US DollarThis is a long term monthly chart of the US Dollar. There was a bullish divergence back in the 1980's that preceded a long term strengthening dollar throughout the 90's. There's a bearish divergence that started in 2014 and is intact today. I don't like to put to much emphasis on inter-market analysis because it can cause paralysis by analysis. However, wouldn't this question the breakouts we see in banks? Would this confirm the breakout we're seeing in energy continuing from last year? If the dollar does weaken even with higher interest rates does that mean that inflation is here to stay? I have no idea. LOL. I'm no economist but I think this chart is interesting. Thoughts?
TVC:DXY
by Breakout_Charts
7
Week 4: Sector ETF Expectations I use sector ETFs in my IRA account. Currently, I hold XOP and XLF, and I wish I held XLE. I will try to buy XLP (Which shouldn't be a problem) next week. For Week 4, I'm expecting XLF to firm up and XOP to come in a bit. XLE would be kind to give me an entry point at prior resistance/ support, but we'll see. Oil looks darn strong at the moment. XLF (Held), hurt me Friday, but held support. XLE on fire XOP (Held), can it hang on and break through resistance?
AMEX:XLP
by SpartyPA28
JPMorgan ChasePotential double bottom setup here. I like this companies financials. It's a credit card company so I'm thinking about the attractiveness of reward points and holiday spending. Even though it's not estimated to be a great holiday season for some, I'm more so thinking about the surcharges and end of month billing here. Chase is also a bank on top of that and just in case they raise interest rates, this may not be a bad move. I want us to reach anywhere between 50-68% of the previous high which was set inn October. I love financials around this time of the year. Let's see what happens! Not Advice! Only an Idea! This trade may end up going wrong. That's the nature of trading! Let's keep getting better!
NYSE:JPMLong
by Redimere_91