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XBI

WEEK OF 12/5: WHAT I'M LOOKING AT: XBI AND EWZWith the VIX still hovering in sub-15 territory and an examination of broad index exchange-traded funds therefore yielding less premium than I would like,* I'm turning my attention to sector exchange traded funds for possible premium selling plays. Naturally, VIX levels could change in light of the outcome of the Italian referendum (as of the writing of this, Dec 7th expiry VIX futures are up .125 to 14.40, with Dec 14th expiries up a similar amount to 15.05. www.cboe.com). After having ground through the entirety of "X" series SPDR's, along with a few non-X funds, it appears that EWZ and XBI offer the best implied volatility rank and implied volatility metrics for premium selling, with both being >70% in rank over the preceding six months and >35% in implied volatility, which is generally what I look for to play. Since I already have an EWZ iron fly on, I'll look to get one filled in XBI (See Post Below). * -- Currently, QQQ has the highest implied volatility of the four major index exchange-traded funds, but the Jan 20th 20 delta iron condor yields less than a 1.00 credit for a three-wide, which is what I like to see out of these trades (credit received > one-third the wing width).
TVC:VIX
by NaughtyPines
XBI Speculative Long PlayWe are finally starting to see some bullish indicators on the daily for XBI. Of course with bio, the swings are long and hard to predict bottoms, so this idea/play is pure speculative. Looking back we can see similar RSI divergence signals and MACD crossovers as to what we can "potentially" see here in the next couple of days. Any bounce off the 55.95-ish area would be pretty bullish for a short term long swing, using possibly LABU. It'll be interesting to see what happens in the next couple of days...
AMEX:XBI
by xsubtownerx
3
WHAT I'M LOOKING AT NEXT WEEK (10/24) -- BANC, EWW, XBIFocus in the short term (which is 25-45 DTE for me) will be on ETF's, although opportunities could crop up with earnings (still hoping for a TWTR dip post-earnings to go long via short puts). Here's what came up on my high IVR/IV screen: BANC, IVR's 100/IV 100. Options, however, are crappy (monthlies only), but you can get something decent for a 20 delta short put if you're willing to go all the way out to Jan (bullish assumption). The drawback -- in addition to the fact that it only has monthlies -- is that it's a bank. Banks generally aren't known for high volatility, so if you get put the stock, it may be difficult to write calls for something decent to reduce your cost basis if vol collapses at some point going forward here. Things like short strangles or iron condors (which would be vol contraction plays) are cumbersome due to the unavailability of dollar wide strikes. EWW (the Mexican ETF) IVR 97/IV 32. The general play on this has been bullish on the assumption that Hillary will win, since that's good for Mexico (Donald has said he'll rescind NAFTA, which would be bad for Mexico). I could see further upside if Hillary wins, although it may have priced some of that in already. The Dec 18th 47 short put brings in .70/contract at the mid (bullish assumption; straight premium selling or precursor to covered call). Although this is not the most liquid thing in the world, nondirectional strats like iron condors, short strangles, and iron flies are also workable here. XBI (the biotech ETF) IVR 88/IV 40. Biotech's been getting a bit of whooping here, and it may not be over, since the notion is that Hillary's bad for pharma and for biotech. She's not keen on high drug prices and has vowed to "do something" to lower drug costs (good luck with that). In any event, the Dec 18th 52 short put brings in 1.07/contract at the mid. (Bullish assumption; straight premium selling or precursor to covered call). A short strangle or iron condor/fly are also doable here.
NYSE:BANC
by NaughtyPines
GET OUT OF THE S&P RUT: LOOK AT ETF'S AND INDIESIf you have ever spent more than a few hours in the Stocks and Indices chat room, you'll soon get the impression that the trading universe is seemingly made up primarily of E-Mini S&P Futures, SPX CFD's, and/or SPY (I probably exaggerate a touch, but that's the overall impression I get), along with a repeated frustration with the way the S&P is behaving in one way or another: the old "it shouldn't be here," "a correction is due," "who's buying way up here," etc. In short, some are frustrated, for various reasons, with the S&P or other broad U.S. market instruments. Well, there's hope for you out there ... . And that's because the trading universe is made up of a ton of instruments that focus on various sectors, various markets, and individual companies. Naturally, some of these don't trade 24/5 like SPX500 or /ES, but if you can't figure out how the S&P, /ES, or SPX500 should be traded here, you should quit banging your head against the wall and move on to other instruments. (Unless you enjoy banging your head against a wall ... ). Some of the more obvious things to look at are naturally instruments like GLD (the gold ETF), SLV (the silver ETF), and TLT (the treasuries ETF). For non-US broad market exposure, look at things like EFA (the world market, ex. Canada and the U.S. ETF) and EEM (the emerging markets ETF). And for U.S. equities sector exposure, look at sector SPDR's, such as XME (mining), XBI (biotech), XRT (retail), XLF (financials), etc. Naturally, getting into individual stocks can be a bit of a slog due to the number of companies involved. However, you can contract that universe to liquid stocks trading an average than 2 million shares daily and that are within the price range you want to devote to a play.
AMEX:EFA
by NaughtyPines