Gold Price Overextended: Is a Bearish Pullback Imminent?XAUUSD Monthly and Daily Chart Analysis
In the monthly chart of XAUUSD, we observe a significant price overextension, where the market has been aggressively buying for several months. This type of upward momentum often signals that a correction or retracement could be approaching soon.
When we zoom into the daily chart, we notice signs that the price is ready to initiate a bearish move, at least a small downward correction. The market may begin to shift as buyers take profits or as sell orders increase in reaction to the extended price.
Xauusdsignal
XAUUSD:Trading around 2638-2663 during the day
Following its drop to the 2600 level, gold has found solid support and rebounded strongly, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions. Prices are now trading back above the 2650 mark.
In the short term, attention should be focused on the 2643-2638 support zone. On the upside, key resistance remains near the recent highs, particularly around 2658.
This week's daily close (1D) will be pivotal. Should we continue to see bearish candles without a break above the previous highs, a significant downturn is likely next week or in early next month. This correction is expected to extend over several weeks, shifting from intraday moves to more sustained declines.
We must also closely monitor the global political landscape. If tensions escalate further, there is a strong possibility of gold breaching the 2700 level. However, if conditions stabilize, we can anticipate a drop below 2550 within the next month.
DOW Theory ! XAU ! 10/14 uptrendXAU / USD trend forecast October 14, 2024
Gold price (XAU/USD) rises for the third consecutive day on Monday, reaching over $2,667, a one-week high in early European trading. Expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts due to a favorable inflation outlook drive demand for the non-yielding metal. Additionally, growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East provide extra support for the safe-haven asset.
Gold price M30 frame shows signs of breaking DOW uptrend - waiting for old peak resistance zone 2685
/// SELL XAU : zone 2683-2686
SL: 2691
TP: 50 - 100 - 300 pips (2656)
Safe and profitable trading
Gold- New all time high this week?Last week, OANDA:XAUUSD fell below the key support level of 2625-2630, briefly testing the area just above the important psychological support at 2600, which also aligns with the ascending trendline.
However, the bulls held strong, and after two failed attempts to push below this level, we saw a sharp reversal on Thursday, marked by a bullish engulfing pattern and a strong close on Friday. This erased the earlier losses from the start of the week.
These are clear bullish signals, suggesting we may see further upside movement and potentially a new all-time high this week.
My strategy is to buy on dips.
THE KOG REPORT THE KOG REPORT:
In last week’s KOG Report we said we would be looking for price to push up and look for a reaction above, this came earlier than expected but we got the move as anticipated down into the lower regions completing KOG’s bias of the week and day. It’s at that lower level we got the perfect tap and bounce giving the long trade back upside allowing us to use the red boxes and Excalibur to trade up to where we closed.
A good week on the markets again, not only on Gold but all the other pairs we trade giving us nearly a full house of completed targets, bar NAS.
So, what can we expect in the week ahead?
For this week we’re going to keep it simple and as usual update traders through the week with our plans.
We have a resistance level above 2663-5 which if held during the early session we feel could give traders the opportunity to attempt the short trade back down into the 2650-55 region and below that 2635-30. We’re likely to get tap and bounce on the move, so keep an eye on the red boxes for the reaction level.
We’re going to play a little caution here on this bullish move at the moment and say that if we manage to break below the 2650, we will hold back on attempting the long trades, reason being there is a structure on the chart that is sticking out and it entails caution.
Like we said, simple one this week, only looking for that move unless we break above 2675, otherwise, another curveball on the way!
KOG’s bias for the week:
Bullish above 2635 with targets above 2670 and above that 2675.
Bearish on break of 2635 with targets below 2595
Red boxes :
Break above 2665 for 2675 and 2680 extension of the move
Break below 2650 for 2640 and 2630 extension of the move
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Gold sideways - large range 2605 - 2682! next week ✍️ NOVA hello everyone, Let's comment on gold price next week from 10/14 - 10/18/2024
🔥 World situation:
Gold surged over 1% on Friday, with the metal on track to close the week with a modest 0.20% gain, following inflation data and Thursday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which slowed the US Dollar’s advance. Currently, XAU/USD is trading at $2,658.
Mixed economic data supported gold's rise. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported producer prices close to expectations, signaling inflation is declining but still above forecasts. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan's October Consumer Sentiment showed a decline, reflecting concerns about higher living costs.
🔥 Identify:
After gold broke the H1 downtrend, there was a recovery above 2650. Still in the long-term H4 uptrend. However, there is a high possibility that it will still move sideways to accumulate more in October (price range 2605-2682).
🔥 Technically:
Based on the resistance and support areas of the gold price according to the H4 frame, NOVA identifies the important key areas as follows:
Resistance: $2682, $2700, $2710
Support : $2629, $2605, $2575
🔥 NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
- The winner is the one who sticks with the market the longest
Break ! Gold recovered unexpectedly after CPI news⭐️Smart investment, Strong finance
⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold prices regained some ground on Thursday, rising 0.67% during the North American session following a hotter-than-expected US inflation report, balanced by weaker jobs data. However, hawkish remarks from a Federal Reserve (Fed) official limited gold’s gains. XAU/USD is trading at $2,624, rebounding from a daily low of $2,603.
While US inflation for August was slightly higher than anticipated, soft job data provided some relief. The US Department of Labor reported more unemployment claims than expected, raising the possibility of more aggressive Fed rate cuts.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
Gold price creates CHOCH in H1 frame - structural change from decreasing to increasing. Gold price recovered. Pay attention to the resistance zones: 2652, 2668
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $2628 - $2626 SL $2623 scalping
TP1: $2634
TP2: $2640
TP3: $2650
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $2605 - $2603 SL $2598
TP1: $2615
TP2: $2622
TP3: $2633
🔥SELL GOLD zone: $2668 - $2670 SL $2675
TP1: $2660
TP2: $2650
TP3: $2640
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
- The winner is the one who sticks with the market the longest
Gold Analysis==>>Ready to PumpToday, on October 10, 2024 , key U.S. economic data were released, including Core CPI m/m , CPI m/m , CPI y/y , and Unemployment Claims . These reports provide insights into inflation and the labor market, which have significant implications for financial markets, including gold.
Impact of Today’s Parameters on Gold :
Core CPI m/m : Increased by 0.3%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures. This could prompt the Fed to maintain high interest rates, which generally puts downward pressure on gold prices.
CPI m/m and CPI y/y : Both show easing inflation, which might reduce expectations of aggressive rate hikes, benefiting gold, as lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.
Unemployment Claims : Rose to 258,000, signaling weakness in the labor market, which could increase demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
Overall Impact :
Easing inflation and rising unemployment support gold prices, but persistent inflation could lead the Fed to keep interest rates high, limiting gold’s upward potential.
Now, let's go to the Technical Analysis of the Gold chart in the 1-hour time frame .
First, I must say that Gold moved very well according to the previous analysis ✅.
Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) is moving near the Descending Channel's upper line and the Resistance zone($2,640-$2,620) .
I expect Gold to break the Resistance zone($2,640-$2,620) after breaking the descending channel and rise to at least $2,640 .
⚠️Note: If gold goes below the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ), there is a possibility of breaking the Support line and the Support zone($2,600-$2,580).⚠️
🔔Be sure to follow the updated ideas.🔔
Gold Analyze ( XAUUSD ), 1-hour time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Go short gold!Bros, gold gradually rebounded to around 2650, breaking through the short-term resistance of 2530-2540, but according to the current conditions, gold does not have the conditions to form a unilateral upward trend. Therefore, in the short term, gold still needs to retreat downward, and the key resistance area above is around 2655-2660, so I will continue to short gold in this area.
Bros, do you have the courage to short gold?
Gold recovers - touch TREND H2 - SELL NOWXAU / USD trend forecast October 11, 2024
Gold price (XAU/USD) pulls back slightly from a three-day high, trading around $2,640 in early European trading on Friday, though still up over 0.40%. A rise in US jobless claims indicated labor market weakness, allowing the Federal Reserve to continue cutting rates. This led to a slight drop in US Treasury yields and a softer risk tone, helping gold gain for a second day.
However, stronger-than-expected US inflation data reduced the chances of another large Fed rate cut in November, supporting the US Dollar and limiting gold's gains. Traders now await the US PPI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and Fedspeak for further direction.
Gold recovered - broke the downtrend H1. However, the larger frame H2 - H4 still shows that the correction is still continuing. While the market psychology is worried that there will be no further interest rate cut in November.
/// SELL XAU : zone 2652-2655
SL: 2660
TP: 50 - 100 - 300 pips (2625)
Safe and profitable trading
XAUUSD | GOLDSPOT | New perspective | follow-up detailGold prices took a hit after a stronger-than-expected US jobs report, signalling a resilient labour market and likely gradual Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing with 25-basis-point rate cuts. This data boosted the US 10-year Treasury yield by 12 basis points to 3.971%, putting downward pressure on XAUUSD.
Next week’s key events include the US inflation data, jobless claims, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. Plus, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could offer support to gold prices as conflicts involving Hezbollah, Iran, Israel, and the US unfold.
Can gold challenge the $2,700 mark this week?
XAUUSD Technical Overview:
This week, we're focusing on the $2,630 zone. This could be a make-or-break point. If gold stays above this zone: Bulls might maintain control, potentially pushing prices higher and setting up new highs. If gold drops below the zone, Bears might gain the upper hand in an attempt to retrace into the structure-support line of the ascending channel. Join me as we explore these factors and potential opportunities in the gold market. Like, subscribe, and hit the notification bell for the latest analysis and insights!
📌 Follow my journey as I map out the next moves in this dynamic market!
#GoldMarket #FedRateCuts #USData #GoldTrading #ForexAnalysis #GoldForecast #EconomicOutlook #TradingStrategies #InvestingInGold #MarketUpdates📺🔔💼
Disclaimer Notice:
Trading in the foreign exchange market and other instruments carries a high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content provided here is for educational purposes only. Evaluate your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expect gold to fall below 2600Gold is currently in a swing state and is still relatively weak, but even so, I did not choose to chase gold short at this time.
Because in the short-term structure, gold has obviously built a double bottom structure in the 2605-2600 area, which is conducive to the rebound and repair of gold to a certain extent. Gold fell from the high of 2684 to around 2605, and the areas around 2635 and 2645 are exactly 38.2% and 50% of this round of decline. Then gold may rebound again in the short-term structure and touch the 2630-2640 area, which is why I am not in a hurry to short gold in the past two days.
Today, CPI and initial jobless claims data will be released. Gold may rise first and then fall back under the influence of the data. So in terms of short-term trading, if you see gold rebound and touch the 2630-2640 area, you can boldly start shorting gold!
CPI data is coming, are you ready to make money?Technical analysis of gold: Gold daily line recorded a big negative again, which is very weak from the perspective of the shape, especially after breaking the 2630 low support and closing at a low level. In terms of the daily line, the five consecutive negative lines in the daily line structure are unfavorable for the development of bulls, especially yesterday's daily line closed with a big negative, which further aggravated the need for adjustment at the daily level, and the price was under pressure below the short-term moving average. The moving averages of other periods maintained a short-term arrangement. The short-term indicators were downward and the volume increased, and the bears had the advantage. At the 4-hour level of gold, the short-term moving average continued the bearish divergence pattern and maintained downward. It is currently running above the lower Bollinger track, and there is no sign of bottoming out for the time being; at the same time, there is a trend of forming a dead cross. If it forms, the downward space will be further opened; the hourly level is currently maintained in a low narrow range of fluctuations, and the strength of the intraday rebound is relatively small. Pay attention to the possible secondary downward trend after the small adjustment and repair is completed. On the whole, He suggests that today's short-term operation strategy for gold should be mainly shorting on rebounds and long on pullbacks. The short-term focus on the upper side is the 2622-2627 line of resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is the 2600-2595 line of support.
Gold has made a profit of 200% this weekFrom the technical perspective of gold, in the daily K-line, the stochastic indicator crosses downward, and the main short is downward; in terms of form, it is temporarily supported near the central axis; it is not easy to break downward for the time being; in the 4-hour period, the stochastic indicator crosses downward and oscillates, and there is no golden cross for the time being. In terms of form, it oscillates downward. In the 1-hour period, the stochastic indicator and the MACD indicator cross golden cross temporarily, and the form temporarily stops the decline and rebounds. The support position is still at the upper and lower support positions of 2600. Further support positions focus on the positions of 2590-2580; the pressure position is at the pressure position of 2625-2630; although the 2604 line was not broken yesterday, there was no strong pullback, and the upper high point was gradually suppressed and moved downward. Even if there is a rebound, there is little room for release, so continue to look down from a high position during the day.
XAU down! correction 10/10/2024XAU / USD trend forecast October 10, 2024
Gold continued its decline for the sixth straight day after the Federal Reserve (Fed) released its September Meeting Minutes. The Minutes revealed that most FOMC members supported a 50-basis-point cut, though XAU/USD remains near $2,610, down 0.37%.
While some officials preferred a 25 bps cut, all agreed on lowering rates. Most participants saw inflation risks decreasing, while concerns about the labor market increased.
H1 frame shows Gold price correction - amid news of China stopping gold purchases continuing to impact further bullish momentum. Price continues to correct below 2600
/// SELL XAU : zone 2623-2626
SL: 2631
TP: 50 - 100 - 300 pips (2596)
Safe and profitable trading
CPI ! Opportunity for gold price to fall below 2600⭐️ Smart investment, Strong finance
⭐️ GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold price (XAU/USD) edged higher during the Asian session on Thursday, ending a six-day losing streak that brought it to a nearly three-week low. The US Dollar (USD) is in a consolidation phase as traders await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release. This repositioning has provided some support to gold.
However, a significant rally in gold seems unlikely due to reduced expectations for aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), as highlighted by the September FOMC meeting minutes. Elevated US Treasury yields may continue to limit gains, requiring strong buying to signal the end of gold's recent corrective decline from its all-time high.
⭐️ Personal comments NOVA:
The long-term framework H1, H4 shows that sellers prevail - the downward correction will continue towards below $2600
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $2583 - $2585 SL $2578
TP1: $2590
TP2: $2600
TP3: $2610
🔥SELL GOLD zone: $2649 - $2651 SL $2656
TP1: $2644
TP2: $2638
TP3: $2630
Pay attention to the trendline resistance area H1: 2633
⭐️ Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
- The winner is the one who sticks with the market the longest
XAUUSD BUY WEEKLY FORECAST Here on Xauusd price has been in uptrend and there is a chance of making pull back before continue it uptrend movement so is expected to go LONG around level of 2621.069 - 2612.742 and now target a profit of 2637.015,2662.358 and 2680.748 with stoploss of 2598.170 . Use money management
XAUUSD WEEKLY FORECAST |BUY @ 2621.069 - 2612.742
SL 2598.170
TP1 2637.015
TP2 2662.358
TP3 2680.748
Continue to short gold after the reboundBros, this week should be magical. Gold has touched my expectations one by one during the decline. I said that gold would at least retest the 2615-2610 area, and it is even possible to touch the area near 2600. Gold fell to around 2604 yesterday, which is exactly in line with my expectations.
Gold seems to have stopped falling and once rebounded above 2620, but in fact, I am not optimistic about the sustainability of gold's rebound here, and I think gold is a bit tempting to go long now. Once gold starts to kill bulls, I fully believe that 2600 is not the end point. Gold still has room to continue to fall, at least retesting the 2590-2580 area, and even looking at the area near 2550.
So in terms of short-term trading, you can boldly short gold with the short-term resistance in the 2630-2640 area! Therefore, in terms of short-term trading, you can boldly short gold by relying on the short-term resistance of the 2630-2640 area! Bros, let us look forward to the next profits!
#XAUUSD 30MIN#XAUUSD 30-Minute Forecast Sell with an Order Block Pattern
On the 30-minute chart for #XAUUSD, we are seeing a shift in momentum towards a downward trend, signaling a potential sell opportunity. Price action has broken key levels, and the market is now favoring bearish sentiment. We are closely watching **two order block areas** for further downside continuation.
#Key Insights:
1. Order Block Pattern:
- The price has moved into an identified bearish order block, an area where large institutions or traders have placed significant sell orders in the past.
- These areas often act as resistance, with the potential to push the price lower once retested.
2. Momentum Shift:
- The recent price action indicates that bullish momentum has weakened, with sellers now gaining control of the market. This shift supports a sell bias.
3. Continuation Areas:
- We are monitoring two critical areas within the order block for further price rejection. If the price fails to break above these zones, it confirms a strong bearish continuation.
4. **Volume Confirmation**: Increased volume near these order block zones would strengthen the sell scenario, as it confirms stronger participation from sellers.
5.Stop-Loss Considerations: For a short trade, placing a stop-loss above the order block area is recommended to protect against potential bullish reversals.
Trading Strategy:
- Entry: Look for sell signals near the identified order block areas with confirmation from bearish price action (e.g., rejection candlesticks or lower highs).
-Take Profit: Target lower support levels as potential areas to take profit.
-Stop Loss: Set stop-loss above the order block areas to manage risk in case of a bullish breakout.
This analysis highlights the potential for bearish continuation in #XAUUSD on the 30-minute timeframe, with focus on the identified order block areas for monitoring price action and sell entries.
Has gold seen bottom? Can we continue to be bearish?
Yesterday I clearly suggested shorting at 2648, and 2630 was not the short-term bottom. The final result was in line with expectations and unexpected, because the gold price plummeted by nearly $50, not only reaching our target of 2615, but also reaching the lowest point of 2604. I believe that friends who follow the trading strategy have made a lot of money. Congratulations!
Let's get back to the point. Because the market's bets on the Fed's sharp interest rate cuts have faded and most of the market's positions have chosen to take profits, gold fell sharply by nearly $50 during the US trading session yesterday, with the short-term low reaching 2604, and then the decline narrowed. As of now, it has remained around 2620 for consolidation.
From the gold daily chart, although the lowest point reached 2604, the final closing price was above 2620, just when the daily MA20 daily moving average position was held, and there was no effective break.
So since the lower support has not broken, we cannot directly choose to continue shorting today. Instead, we have to wait for the rebound power to be consumed before going short, and the upper suppression area will be a good choice.
From the 1H chart, the previous support of 2630 has now turned into resistance, and the same is true for the 2640 line. Therefore, today we need to observe the resistance situation in the 2630-2640 area. Once there is a sign of reversal here, I think it is an opportunity to short.
If there are any latest changes in transaction details, I will update you in time in the channel. If you are interested, you can enter below.
XAUUSD GOLD Technical Analysis and Trade Idea👀👉 XAUUSD (Gold) has been under selling pressure recently, presenting a possible short-term day trading opportunity. In this video, we’ll analyze the price action, examine the prevailing trend and market structure, and discuss a potential trade setup. Risk Disclaimer: Trading Forex involves significant risk, and market conditions can change rapidly. The information provided is for educational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice. 📉✅