Gold Analysis==>>PumpingToday, U.S. Retail Sales figures were released. Retail sales increased by 0.7% , surpassing the forecast of 0.6% . However, Core Retail Sales rose by only 0.2% , below the anticipated 0.4% .
These figures indicate continued strength in U.S. consumer spending, which can lead to a stronger U.S. dollar ( TVC:DXY ) . A stronger dollar typically exerts downward pressure on gold prices, as gold is priced in dollars, making it more expensive for international investors when the dollar appreciates.
However, it's important to note that multiple factors influence gold prices, including upcoming Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates and global economic conditions.
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Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) continued to fall as I expected and is currently moving through the Support zone($2,642-$2,620) and the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) .
According to Elliott's wave theory , Gold seems to be completing wave 5 .
Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD+) between Consecutive Valleys.
I expect Gold to start rising again from the PRZ and Support lines and attack the Resistance lines .
⚠️Note: If Gold breaks the Support zone($2,642-$2,620), we can expect more dumps.⚠️
🔔Be sure to follow the updated ideas.🔔
Gold Analyze ( XAUUSD ), 15-minute time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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Xauusdsignal
XauUsd- New leg down towards 2610 support?In my Friday analysis, I highlighted that while the 2660-2665 zone is a technical support, it is too obvious and very likely to fall.
This prediction came true as the week closed with Gold trading below this level, forming a strongly bearish daily candle.
Additionally, a Pin Bar from the 2700+ resistance zone appeared on the weekly chart, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
During the Asian session last night, the price tested the ascending trendline, and as of now, Gold is trading at 2656, hinting at a potential rebound following the 800-pip drop from its recent peak.
Looking ahead, if a deeper rebound occurs, the 2680 zone will be a key level for bears to monitor. This area presents an ideal shorting opportunity given its favorable risk-to-reward setup.
At the moment, I’m out of the market, waiting to sell into signs of weakness, with 2610 support as my target.
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⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold price (XAU/USD) extends its recovery from the $2,633 level, a one-week low, and gains modest traction during the Asian session on Wednesday. The uptick appears to be driven by repositioning ahead of a key central bank event. However, gains are likely to be limited as traders await the outcome of the crucial two-day FOMC policy meeting later today. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is broadly expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and signal a more cautious approach to further rate reductions.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
The market will pick up and recover when the FED lowers interest rates later today. But it won't have too much of an impact because most investors won't be too surprised.
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone: $2664 - $2662 SL $2667 scalping
TP1: $2658
TP2: $2652
TP3: $2645
🔥SELL GOLD zone: $2694 - $2696 SL $2702
TP1: $2685
TP2: $2670
TP3: $2660
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $2607 - $2605 SL $2600
TP1: $2618
TP2: $2630
TP3: $2645
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable BUY order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
#XAUUSD 4HXAUUSD Based on the 4-hour analysis, I am currently monitoring key support levels at 2610.00 and 2605.00 for potential buying opportunities.
Target levels: 2660.00, 2680.00, 2700.00, and 2780.00.
Important note: If the price closes below 2600.00, it is advisable to avoid any buying positions.
For now, refrain from placing any pending orders. Wait for strong bullish confirmation signals before entering a trade.
This setup represents a significant swing trade opportunity.
Gold Market Update: Indecision Dominates Ahead of FEDYesterday, OANDA:XAUUSD broke below the key confluence support at 2645.
However, the drop lacked meaningful follow-through. After reaching a local low at 2633, the price reversed and closed right at the confluence level.
As of now, gold remains virtually unchanged from Friday's close. Monday saw a spike up to 2665, while yesterday marked a dip to 2633, reflecting market indecision.
Technical Perspective:
At the time of writing, gold is trading below this critical level, currently at 2643. If the break below support proves genuine, bears will likely target the 2610-2615 zone, as highlighted in my previous analyses.
Conversely, if the price climbs back above 2655, the recent dip would be considered a false breakout, shifting the focus to the upside, with the 2680 zone as the next target.
FED's Influence:
The market awaits clarity from the Federal Reserve’s announcement and press conference today, which could provide direction for gold in the coming days.
Gold Influenced by Various Factors, Focus on The Fed's DecisionGold prices need to clear $2,664-$2,664 levels for investors to gain control of the short-term market.
From a technical perspective, any subsequent up-move might face hurdles near the weekly highs, around the $2,664-$2,666 area touched on Monday, ahead of the $2,677 area.
A sustained strength beyond the latter should allow Gold prices to reclaim the $2,700 round figure.
The up-move could extend towards the monthly swing highs, around the $2,726 zone, above which XAU/USD is likely to resume its upward trajectory.
On the flip side, the overnight swing low, around the $2,633 region, now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the monthly trough, around the $2,614 zone.
This is followed by the $2,600 level, which, if broken decisively, will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and make Gold prices vulnerable to extending the recent sharp decline from the one-month highs touched last week.
TRADING STRATEGY FOR DECEMBER 18 XAUUSDGold prices fell on December 17 due to:
Stronger USD (+0.1%), making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies.
Higher 10-year bond yields, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold.
Key Takeaways from the Fed:
A 0.25% rate cut is expected on December 18, but the likelihood of further cuts in January 2025 remains low (only 18%).
US Economic Impact:
November retail sales exceeded expectations, fueling inflation concerns. This suggests the Fed may pause further rate cuts in January 2025.
Gold is strongly supported by important economic data this week. From a technical perspective, after recent sharp declines, gold has shown signs of reversal from the 2633.xx resistance area, rebounding toward 2650.xx.
Today's Main Trend: Focus on long-term buy opportunities at strong sell points. Use sell scalping strategies and observe reactions to trade more effectively.
INTRADAY TRADING STRATEGY
SELL SCALP:
Entry: 2661 - 2663
Stop Loss (SL): 2666
Take Profit (TP): 2655
BUY SCALP:
Entry: 2634 - 2632
SL: 2629
TP: 2640
BUY ZONE:
Entry: 2618 - 2620
SL: 2615
TP: ???
SELL ZONE:
Entry: 2672 - 2674
SL : 2677
TP: 2664
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⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold prices (XAU/USD) inch higher during Tuesday's Asian session but struggle to sustain momentum, hovering near the one-week low reached on Monday. Market participants remain cautious, awaiting the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting on Wednesday before making new directional moves.
Attention will center on the Fed's policy statement, the updated dot plot, and remarks from Chair Jerome Powell during the post-meeting press conference. Investors are keen for insights into the future path of rate cuts, which could influence the US Dollar (USD) and provide clearer direction for gold prices.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
The market is currently waiting for important information to lower interest rates tomorrow. The positivity will return when it reduces another 0.25 points tomorrow.
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone: $2678 - $2680 SL $2685
TP1: $2670
TP2: $2660
TP3: $2650
🔥SELL GOLD zone: $2663 - $2665 SL $2668 scalping
TP1: $2655
TP2: $2640
TP3: $2630
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $2626 - $2624 SL $2619
TP1: $2635
TP2: $2648
TP3: $2655
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
Buying opportunity at 2643-2628Gold is currently facing some selling pressure near 2648, but the overall trend remains bullish with a high probability of breaking through. In the coming days, prices are likely to rise above 2660, making buying the primary trading direction for now.
In a weak market, gold may fluctuate multiple times within the 2643-2628 range to build up momentum. In a strong market, prices could rally after just one retest today.
However, there’s also a possibility of breaking below the support. If that happens, the likelihood of a short-term drop to 2580 will increase significantly.
Gold range fluctuations, short-term profit strategyOn the daily level, the pressure is at 2665-2675, and the support below is around 2640. If it continues to weaken, the rebound may not be too large, but it is a small deviation, so it is not easy to chase the short for the time being, waiting for the rebound to go short. If it breaks 2640 further below, then it will be a small rebound and go short, but for now, it is still tentatively set at 2640-2675 for the beginning of the week! Overall, today's short-term operation strategy for gold is to focus on rebound shorting and callback longing. The short-term focus on the upper side is 2670-2675 resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is 2640-2643 support.
XAUUSD Gold (XAU/USD) puts pressure on daily lows and trades below $2,660 on Friday’s early American session. The US Dollar (USD) reclaims its leadership ahead of the weekly close, helped by rising US Treasury yieldsGold price faced rejection at higher levels on Thursday and turned south before finding support at the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,671 early Friday.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also witnessed a renewed upside while holding well above the 50 level.
If Gold price resumes the recovery momentum, it could retest the multi-week high of $2,726, above which 2,750, the confluence of the psychological barrier and the November 5 high, will act as a tough nut to crack.
A failure to defend the 50-day SMA support at $2,671 on a daily candlestick closing basis will prompt sellers to target the 21-day SMA at $2,650 once again.
#XAUUSD/GOLD 4HXAUUSD 4-Hour Analysis
The XAUUSD (Gold) pair has broken below a significant trendline support on the 4-hour chart, signaling a shift in momentum to the downside. This breakdown indicates increased selling pressure and provides a strong opportunity for bearish positions.
Technical Outlook:
Pattern: Trendline Support Line Breakdown
Forecast: Bearish (Sell Opportunity)
Entry Strategy: Enter a sell position after confirming the breakdown with bearish price action signals, such as a retest of the broken support line acting as resistance or the formation of lower highs and lower lows.
Traders should monitor indicators like RSI for confirmation of bearish momentum or MACD for a bearish crossover. Risk management is essential, with stop-loss orders placed above the retest level and profit targets set at key support zones below.
XAU/USD Strategy: Selling Rallies Amid Bearish StructureIn my analysis of XAU/USD yesterday, I highlighted that after the 800-pip drop, a rebound was likely. However, given the weekly Pin Bar and the bearish daily structure, I emphasized that any upward move should be viewed as a correction and an opportunity to sell.
Indeed, the market did see a rebound, but it was weak and short-lived. After reaching the 2665 zone, the price reversed to the downside and ended the day with minimal change.
Currently, the price sits at 2652, with the recent lows now acting as confluent support, reinforced by the rising trendline from the recent bottom. A decisive break below this support zone would shift focus to the next key level at 2610-2615.
My strategy remains unchanged: I continue to look for selling opportunities on rallies.
Gold Shows Bullish Signs, Eyeing 2666-2672 Resistance ZoneGold is at a critical point of contention between bulls and bears. From the technical chart, the bulls are in a stronger position, with signs of a double bottom. If this stabilizes, gold is expected to rise again towards the 2666-2672 area. Therefore, today's trading should focus on long positions.
XAU - monday sideway! Scalping follows the downtrendSCALPING XAU / USD
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⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Last week's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will ease its rate cuts at a slower pace next year.
On Friday, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to a three-week high, reflecting market bets on a less dovish Fed stance, which could limit gains for the non-yielding gold.
Looking ahead, Monday's release of global flash PMI data may shape broader market sentiment and potentially impact demand for the safe-haven precious metal.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
Gold price is slow on the first trading day of the new week, around the 2650 area.
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone: $2662 - $2664 SL $2667 scalping
TP1: $2657
TP2: $2650
TP3: $2640
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
XAUUSD next possible move“Risk management is more important than being right.” – Ray Dalio
In trading and investing, always wanting to be right can lead to impulsive decisions and significant losses.
It’s not your ego, but your ability to protect your capital that determines your long-term success.
Risk management is like a shield: it allows you to stay in the game, even when the market goes against your predictions. Being a good trader doesn’t mean always predicting the market correctly, but knowing how to limit the damage when you're wrong.
By adopting a disciplined approach to risk, you create an environment where mistakes are not failures, but learning opportunities.
Remember, the goal is not always to win, but to stay in position to win tomorrow.
The most accurate trading strategy for goldGold fell sharply again last Friday, hitting a low near 2646 before stopping, continuing the bearish trend of last Thursday. It closed in the form of two large negative lines at the end of last week, and after opening in the morning, it retreated slightly and hit a low of 2643 before rebounding and fluctuating. It is currently temporarily maintaining a volatile situation. Looking at the current trend, the two-day retreat has basically destroyed the previous upward trend. The daily short-term moving average has also formed a suppressive pattern. The previous support level is also likely to be converted into a top and bottom pattern to form a suppressive effect. The operation is still treated as a rebound short.
From the 4-hour analysis, the upper short-term resistance continues to focus on the high of 2658-62 in the early morning of last Friday. The intraday rebound relies on this position to continue to be short and look down. Pay attention to the short-term support at 2640 below. The short-term long-short watershed focuses on 2670. Before the daily level breaks through and stands on this position, any rebound is a short-selling opportunity.
Gold Set for Recovery After Friday's DeclineLast Friday, gold encountered strong selling pressure at 2692, continuing its downward movement to the green zone, which I’ve marked as a potential buying area. Traders who held long positions on Friday may see profits on Monday.
There could be a second downward move, but if this happens, the 2644-2636 area is expected to act as strong support. For long positions, the initial targets are 2657-2666, and if prices stabilize around 2654-2658, we can target the 2671-2679 range.