XAUUSD Bearish scenarioXAUUSD
Bearish scenario
The gold is now in a key zone between two strong levels – $1880 resistance and $1850 support. The asset is consolidating here for almost three days now. It is also yet too far from the 9 EMA which for some market participants could be take as a short play in regard of returning to the mean strategy.
The key trigger point for short sellers will be if the price breach the support level of $1850 and start trading there for at least day or two. The first target for the bears should be $1800 round number.
Bullish scenario
The price is in an uptrend in the last two years or so. A break above the 1880 level and close above it will be most likely taken as a buying opportunity for the gold bucks and trend traders.
Fundamentals:
Couple of things to consider in regards of what is moving the price of gold currently:
1. The positive news around the vaccine would make a lot of the big guys to cash out their gold positions the get in in the stock market looking for value and underestimated companies.
2. Gold yearly return is approximately 22% which is higher than the average. This in combination with the above stated forming strong sell bias for within the next 3 – 4 months.
3. The printing money is keeping going even with the new president administration which is clearly a bull fact for gold.
Xaudusd
XAUGUSD Bullish: Do we have a strong resistance level at 29.55?I do not think that the 29.55 level is strong enough a resistance. Chances of price breaking above this level are high. Price respected the 26.21 level and closed above it yesterday, this is my go signal. I would be careful thou just in case price fail to break above the immediate resistance.
Don't miss the great sell opportunity in XAUUSDTrading suggestion:
. There is still a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested resistance line (1731.0). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets.
Technical analysis:
. XAUUSD is in a range bound and the beginning of downtrend is expected.
.The price is above the 21-Day WEMA which acts as a dynamic support.
. The RSI is at 27.
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 1711.43
TP2= @ 1691.60
TP3= @ 1670.30
SL: Break Above R2
XAUDUSD//1800 Target// ElliotWave+Fib// Analysis*Target Impulse 1800
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2nd wave/corrective
+ needs to retrace to .618 - .786
+ TD Sequencial is complete and a bit over extended, meaning it is due for a correction
+ Stochastic Divergence also indicates a need for correction
+ Resistance/Support, Strong resistance at 1750, Strong support at 1720
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3rd wave/impulse
+ Impulse to 1.618 or 2.618 fib
+ can not be the shortest wave
+ indicators are reset, breathe air is done and ready
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4th wave/ corrective
+ short correction to .236
+ can be very minor correction
+ cannot go lower than peak of wave 1, meaning this wave can be just an R/S flip
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5th wave/ final impulse
+ target fib is 2.618
+ approx 1800
Don't Buy into Shooting Stars; Enter 'True' Longs @ 1380ishA lot of people confuse shooting stars and dead cat bounces with 'real' runs - both in stocks and metals. Right now, we are seeing and have been seeing shooting stars in Gold for a little while and we have received another one. Silver has recently formed a shooting star as well.
What this means is we can expect a likely breakdown once again in Gold to sub-1450 and Silver likely sub-11 for cash (liquidity) and more margin covering sometime early next week.
The generational buying opportunity in Gold, Silver and eventually Platinum is coming, however, refrain from buying into these shooting stars that are simply filtering out weak bulls.
There will continue to be more strength in the DXY up to at-least the 108 range which will further the selling pressure on Gold, and we are certainly not near the equity lows before stabilization. Both of these will add to selling pressure in Gold and Silver. With most of the world essentially shutdown, there is little to no industrial necessity for Silver, and as such, I see Silver's current rise as nothing more than a dead cat bounce.
At this point and as I have been calling for a little while, Gold will come to test its pre-breakout levels which is at-least the 1390-1400 range. It is possible it can find support from the top of the elongated 6 year cup which is closer to 1350. However, I would begin entering large buys around the 1390-1400 rather than "hoping" for something that may not come.
- zSplit
Yellow Metal Losing the Shine?It was fishy already the moment when I realized how people being greedy over equities TVC:SPX | TVC:DJI . Knowing much of major steps already taken in action from global governments and central banks all those honchos working together to save their own country equally from this pandemic created financial crisis let me think at least once that something is coming better for the future even if it's not soon but later for sure! I have already realized some good changes around which I don't like to mention here but take it optimistic for now and know that the shine of this yellow metal may no longer be brighter then past if the whole world are about to contain this virus inside a box!
XAUDUSD TECHNICAL ANALISYS GOLD HAS REJECTED THE 2.618% RATIO @17000 FROM 25 JAN 18 AND 16 AUG 18 PROJECTION ASWELL THE 200% FROM THE H&S FORMED IN BETWEEN 2014 AND 2017
THE PRECIOUS METAL IS APPROACHING TO 1497.494 @ 100% SYMMETRY FROM 25 JAN 16,
AUG 18 AND 9 MAR 18 IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE 200 MA
@1497.494 COULD GIVE A POSITIVE REACTION
HOWEVER, PRICE NO ALWAYS REVERSE @ 100% SYMERTY HAVING IN MIND THE 4 IMPORTANCE LEVEL IN SYMMETRY....
100%
1.272%
1.618%
2.618%
WE COULD USE THESE PERCENTAGES AS S&R LEVELS
ON A WEEKLY CHART PRICE HAS FORMED A BAT HARMONIC PATTERN
WITH PRICE TARGET PROJECTION @ 1370. 317 1.618%
XAUUSD is interesting!Fibonacci Ratio is useful to measure the target of a wave’s move within an Elliott Wave structure. Different waves in an Elliott Wave structure relates to one another with Fibonacci Ratio. For example, in impulse wave:
Wave 5 is typically 61.8%, 100%, or 123.6% of wave 1
Could we also be looking at an early wave correction? Make sure to keep an eye out for gold.
Sell Gold at the current priceOANDA: XAUUSD AFter such a long time of not analyzing the charts I have finally taken my time off the studies for a while to send you this analysis of the gold signal , this analysis has shown me a possible selloff gold from the current price
the sell-off target with my analysis is a short term trade with the take profit at the level of 1487.50 and my stop loss just above 1505.00 I will be opening this trade wish you all the best with this trade
Gold: The Lows are the Key; Not the HighsWe had a slight retracement today based on an algo bounce across the US indices. Despite the decent bounce across the indices around the world, Gold and Silver's losses were muted, thereby further supporting the long bullish trend I have been discussing for a long time. If today was "true bearish", we would be sitting into the 1490s.
I am expecting a movement upwards next week with a near-term target of 1540 +/- 5pts with a slight retracement before a longer and more gradual uptrend from late August to the 2nd week of September.
The ECB is expected to almost for certain ease and that will likely provide a quick jolt of about 20.00 in Gold.
The Fed is also expected to ease, however, the Fed's easing is more questionable even though I believe Powell will ease 25bps. Due to the fact that the Fed's policy is more unpredictable than ECB, I am looking at a retracement after the ECB and before (in anticipation of) the Fed. After the Fed is likely to ease however, I am expecting that pushes Gold over 1600. Therefore, my 1600 ETA date is September 17-18.
Banks around the world will begin QE (Quantitative Easing) and by no means should any rational person who understands monetary policy and geopolitics call for Gold and Silver to be bearish longer than a daily interval (for shorts). I do not focus on shorts however, because nearly everyone loses money in the long-term when shorting metallics. Gold and Silver's bull run will end when the threat of rate HIKES increases which puts us in an at-least 3-4 year overall bull cycle.
While the DXY and the metallics are somewhat disconnected now, big 3%+ daily gains will be subdued until the DXY begins to drop below 97. The DXY will begin declining when the Fed confirms the longer easing cycle which will likely be in September.
- zSplit
Gold: 1525+ Near-Term. And Then...?Today we had a very interesting day upon us. A day where Gold barely moved until basically the last half of the US exchange where we hovered in the 1511-1512 range.
Despite a reasonable move today, most of the Gold and Silver stocks finished down today due to them being heavily overbought: I expect a rebound tomorrow. Why are they being overbought? Many countries continue to see negative yields, dropping interest rates and falling GDP. Contingent on the Hong Kong protests and we see overbought Gold and Silver stocks.
From here I see that we get to 1525-1530 in the near term, then off to 1550 and 1580 before a slight correction from 1580s to 1550s before we set our eyes bound to 1600. Once we get into the 1600s and 1700s there will be less retracements by a significant amount compared to the 1400s and 1500s.
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Today is a perfect example why I focus heavily on political and geopolitical factors. If you search all over this website, people thought today would be a strong bull because for example, SP closed at 2900. However, you must realize 70% of the market is geopolitical/politically motivated/manipulated/related and only 30% can be based on hypotheticals, mathematicals and trends.
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I invite everyone to view all of my Gold/Silver posts and check the consistency and accuracy of my predictions and forecasts.
- zSplit