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Wticrudeoil

WTI bears eye a move down to $80Last week's swing trade to $90 worked out well, yet momentum ha since shifted lower. I noted in the recent COT report that managed funds and large speculators have been trimming long exposure in recent weeks, and that managed funds increased short exposure last week despite the slew of negative headlines surrounding the Middle East conflict. This also coincided with the two small bullish weekly candles, which appeared to be corrective on the weekly chart - and therfore suggests lower prices. A lower high has formed below $90 and momentum turned lower. As support has been found around the Jan/April highs, we suspect a bounce is due. And this could allow bears to fade into favourable prices below $87 - $87.50 on the assumption a breakdown is pending ahead of its move to $80. Should this be part of a larger decline, note that $75 and $70 are near the 100% and 138.2% Fibonacci projection levels on the daily chart.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by CityIndex
WTI OIL Short-term rebound expected.Last month's Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern (see chart below) hit both of our Targets (79.00 and 75.00) and transitioned into a Channel Down: The price almost hit the pattern's bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) and after a 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) rejection, the 4H RSI formed the same Higher Lows trend-line as it did on October 12. We are expecting this to be the start of the Lower High leg towards the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). This is expected to be within the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and a +10.25% range. Target 82.50. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILLong
by TradingShot
2
WTI Crude oil - front expirationTechnical Analysis: Support level $75 looks like resisting. After the forecasted rebound, seems the market stay cautious with a triangle formation on hourly time frame. Scenarios: 1. Scenario 1 - Positive continuation till the first target (ABC intraday structure). Strategy for Scenario 1: - On consolidation above $77 set the position's Delta to positive, following your investment criteria. - First target: $78.50 - Strategy on reaching target 1: Set the position's Delta to zero - Second target: $79.50 - Strategy on reaching target 2: Set the position's Delta to zero 2. Scenario 2 - Negative Acceleration. If the price breaks down below today's low of $76.50, we could see a further decline to around $75 from where restart a rebound. Only a breakdown of 74.91 would indicate a negative acceleration in price. Strategy for Scenario 2: - Set the position's Delta to negative, following your investment criteria. - First target: $75 - Strategy on reaching target 1: Set the position's Delta to zero - Second target: $72.50 - Strategy on reaching target 2: Set the position's Delta to zero Summary: The technical analysis suggests a potential short term technical rebound. We consider a positive rebound strategy if the price hold level $75 and till $79.5/$80 area, where we will consider close wave 4. On the close of wave 4 or a price drops below $74.91 we will consider a short strategy. Make sure to follow your investment and adjust your position's Delta accordingly to manage your risk. Investment criteria we highly recommend: CONSERVATIVE strategy: max position's Delta value (+/-) 0.20 MODERATE strategy: max position's Delta value (+/-) 0.30 AGGRESSIVE strategy: max position's Delta value (+/-) 0.40 Please note that investing in derivatives involves hight risks. We strongly advise against invest in future or options naked (not hedged), and to carefully follow your investment strategy criteria and risk management. Delta Zero Technical Analysis team
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by DeltaZeroProprietaryTrading
WTI Crude oil - front expiration Technical Analysis: Today, the WTI Crude Oil futures experienced a negative extension in their price, and they reached an important support level around $75. On an hourly basis, it seems like wave 3 may have exhausted. This suggests a potential change in the price direction. Scenarios: 1. Scenario 1 - Positive Rebound. It's realistic to expect a rebound in the price to around $80. This means the price may go up from the current level. Strategy for Scenario 1: - Set the position's Delta to positive, following your investment criteria. - First target: $77.50 - Strategy on reaching target 1: Set the position's Delta to zero - Second target: $79 - Strategy on reaching target 2: Set the position's Delta to zero 2. Scenario 2 - Negative Acceleration. If the price breaks down below today's low of $74.91, we could see a further decline to around $73.90. This would indicate a negative acceleration in price. Strategy for Scenario 2: - Set the position's Delta to negative, following your investment criteria. - First target: $73.90 - Strategy on reaching target 1: Set the position's Delta to zero - Second target: $72.50 - Strategy on reaching target 2: Set the position's Delta to zero Summary: The technical analysis suggests a potential short term technical change in the price direction. We consider a positive rebound strategy if the price hold level $75. I the price drops below $74.91 experiencing a negative extension, we will consider a short strategy. Make sure to follow your investment and adjust your position's Delta accordingly to manage your risk. Investment criteria we highly recommend: CONSERVATIVE strategy: max position's Delta value (+/-) 0.20 MODERATE strategy: max position's Delta value (+/-) 0.30 AGGRESSIVE strategy: max position's Delta value (+/-) 0.40 Please note that investing in derivatives involves hight risks. We strongly advise against invest in future or options naked (not hedged), and to carefully follow your investment strategy criteria and risk management. Delta Zero Technical Analysis team
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by DeltaZeroProprietaryTrading
1
Oil says nothing flattering about the global economyWest Texas Intermediate crude oil hit our price target of $80 and continues to slide lower. At the moment, it trades slightly above $76, which marks a decline of nearly 20% from the highs in late September 2023. Today, we want to talk concisely about two things. First, China’s demand for oil began to slow down again after slightly picking up during the summer, which is reflected in the latest data revealing the rising level of the country’s stockpiles (do not forget, China also experienced a significant drop YoY in exports for October 2023). Second, Saudi Aramco posted 23% lower net income in the third quarter of 2023 versus the same time in 2022. All in all, we presume that does not tell anything flattering about the global economy. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bearish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradersweekly
8
Oil is likely headed to $70 per barrel in 2024For the past four trading sessions, West Texas Intermediate crude oil oscillated between $83 and $85 per barrel. At the moment, it trades near the lower end of this range, and technical indicators on the daily chart continue to grow bearish; the same applies to technicals on the weekly graph. As a result, the likelihood of oil slumping below $80 in the short/medium term increases. This view is also supported by the weakening global economy and the latest data (preliminary) from Saudi Arabia (the world’s second-largest oil producer), which revealed the country’s economy shrank by 4.5% YoY in the third quarter of 2023 (the oil activities declined by 17.3%, while non-oil and government activities rose 3.6% and 1.9% respectively). Unless there is any significant disruption to the supply in the Middle East amid the Israel-Hamas War, we believe the crude oil is headed lower. With that said, we want to set our price target to $80 per barrel in the short/medium term and next year’s price target to $70 per barrel. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of USOIL. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish crossover, confirming the trend reversal. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradersweekly
4
USOIL to find sellers close to market levels?WTI - Intraday The AB=CD formation target is located at 70.19. Reverse trend line resistance comes in at 83.91. Bespoke resistance is located at 84.06. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. The medium term bias remains bearish. We look to Sell at 84.00 (stop at 85.50) Our profit targets will be 80.20 and 79.60 Resistance: 83.91 / 84.06 / 89.83 Support: 80.19 / 77.64 / 70.19 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by OANDA
WTI CRUDE OIL Expecting a rebound on the MA200 (1d).WTI Crude Oil has been declining rather sharply since September 28th and today's green (1d) candle should give way to a new low tomorrow. Based on the (1d) RSI sequence, this fall resembles the fractals of November 2022 and April-May 2023. Both rebounded to the 0.5 Fibonacci level after pricing their respective bottoms. Trading Plan: 1. Sell on the current market price. 2. Buy at 78.15 (MA200 1d and a little over Support 1). Targets: 1. 78.15 (MA200 1d and a little over Support 1). 2. 86.30 (Fibonacci 0.5 level). Tips: 1. Both sequences traded sideways after bottoming for around 2 months. This will be an excellent scalping opportunity. Take advantage of it. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
TVC:USOIL
by TradingBrokersView
1
WTI CRUDE OIL Trade it based on today's candle closing.WTI Crude Oil is breaching at the moment the Rising Support of the last 3 months. The (1d) candle closing will determine in our opinion the short term direction, as on this level the momentum is neutral, with a Falling Resistance above and numerous Support levels to target if broken. Trading Plan: 1. Buy if the (1d) candle closes over the Rising Support. 2. Sell if it closes under it and breaches Support (1). Targets: 1. 87.50 (Falling Resistance). 2. 79.00 (a little over the MA200 (1d)). Tips: 1. The sentiment could be a little more favorable to selling at the moment as the MACD (1d) just made a rare shift, invalidating the bullish build up as it switched from a Bullish Cross immediately to a Bearish Cross. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
TVC:USOIL
by TradingBrokersView
The U.S. reveals a trick up its sleeveA few weeks ago, we expressed our bewilderment at the U.S. administration and its handling of the oil stockpiles. Despite oil plummeting below $70 during the summer, officials did not take the initiative to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (also canceling plans to buy oil in July 2023), prompting us to speculate about what trick the administration could have up its sleeve. Finally, last week, we might have discovered exactly what it was when news erupted that the United States lifted some of the sanctions on Venezuela, allowing it to produce and export oil to its chosen markets for the next six months without limitation. While Venezuela’s oil production is only about 800,000 barrels per day, the news announcement is still quite a big thing as it will enable U.S. entities to buy crude oil and help alleviate rising crude oil prices (especially if the country ramps up production in the coming months and the global economy continues to slow down - presuming no broad conflict will affect oil supply in the Middle East). Now, on the topic of technicals, we are paying close attention to the Sloping Support/Resistance. If the price breaks back above the resistance (and holds the ground), it will be bullish. However, a failure will raise our skepticism about more upside. In addition to that, we are watching MACD, RSI, and Stochastic on the daily chart. To support a bearish case, we would want to see all of them continue declining. Contrarily, to support a bullish case, we would like to see MACD reversing and breaking above the midpoint. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL and a simple setup with bullish prospects above the sloping support/resistance and bearish prospects below it. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of MACD. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish breakout below the midpoint. If MACD fails to rebound back into the bullish area above zero, it will raise the odds for a continuation lower. Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 shows the daily chart of USOIL and simple moving averages. The yellow arrow indicates an impending bearish crossover between the 20-day SMA and the 50-day SMA. If successful, it will bolster a bearish case. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bearish (with weak trend) Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOIL
by Tradersweekly
4
WTI CRUDE OIL Buy on this Falling Support. Sell below.WTI Crude Oil hit the Falling Support, the 3rd time making contact with and turns into a short term buy. Target 89.75 (Resistance A at 89.80). The medium term pattern is a Channel Up so id the Falling Support fails, take the small loss and wait for the bottom of the Channel Up to breaks. Sell and target 79.00 (1week MA50). A bearish reversal is quite probable at the moment since the 4hour MACD is on a strong Bearish Cross. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
TVC:USOIL
by TheCryptagon
WTI OIL Channel Up. Short-term sell opportunity.WTI Oil (USOIL) got heavily rejected following our sell signal (see chart below) earlier this month (October 02) after failing to close above the 12-month Double Top: This long-term bearish trade is still valid but on the short-term (4H time-frame) we see another sell opportunity in the making. The Channel Up that is emerging after the price got rejected on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) calls for a sell back to the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the pattern. Our target is 83.50 (-5.66 bearish leg as the one before it). The 4H MACD is about to form a Bearish Cross so if the price breaks below the (dashed) Higher Lows trend-line, we will sell the break-out and target the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) at 78.50 (just above Support 1). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingShot
4
WTI Long Trading SignalIsrael-Hamas Conflict Fuels Uncertainty in Crude Market. Oil prices rise amid Israel-Hamas conflict, with risks of surpassing $100 and potential U.S. sanctions on Iran adding to market volatility. 1. The price closed above the Trend Magic Indicator line. Strong long signal. 2. Vortex will cross and indicates strong uptrend signal. SL - below the Trend Magic Indicator line or Vortex indicator change trend direction signal TP- 94.90 Keep It Simple and Always Trade With the Trend! Please, Support Our Work with Like & Comment! Thank You!
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by ForexWithTsanev
WTI CRUDE OIL Buy SignalWTI Crude Oil hit twice the Rising Support and today is having the strongest green (1d) candle in 5 months. This is a buy signal assuming the line holds. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the current market price. 2. Sell if the price closes a (1d) candle under the Rising Support. Targets: 1. 95.00 (Resistance 1). 2. 78.00 (little over Support 2). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) is crossing over its MA line. If we close above, then it will be like the August 29th bullish break out. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
TVC:USOILLong
by TradingBrokersView
2
A new conflicts roils the oil marketOver the weekend, a new conflict broke out in the Middle East after Hamas, a designated terrorist organization, initiated an assault on Israel. This attack is already roiling the oil market, which saw oil prices rise more than 5% after the futures market opened. However, it is possible the impact has not been fully felt yet, considering the potential for further escalation amid Iran’s involvement in the preparations for the attack. Such developments could lead to broader conflict in the region responsible for producing one-third of global supply. That, in turn, could send the oil price much higher from the current levels (likely toward $100 and potentially even higher). As a result, we are closely monitoring the situation and will update our thoughts with the emergence of new events. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL. The yellow arrow indicates an opening gap. If the gap fails to be filled, it will bolster a bullish case for oil in the short term. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of USOIL and two simple moving averages. The yellow arrow indicates the initial return of the price in the upward-sloping channel (after the market opened). It will be bullish if the price re-enters the channel again and holds above the lower bound. Illustration 1.03 The picture above portrays the daily chart of MACD. If it fails to break below the midpoint and starts flattening, it will be a bullish sign. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Slightly bearish Weekly time frame = Neutral Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILLong
by Tradersweekly
WTI trade analysis Over the past weekend, conflicts in the Middle East shook the market, and oil prices jumped on Monday (October 9). News from Israel has been dominating Asian markets, with the usual safe havens finding bids. Oil prices led the gains, with Brent and U.S. crude rising as much as 5%, at a time when oil prices retreated slightly. It is recommended that crude oil rebounds from 86.2-86.7 and shorts in batches, with a stop loss of 87.3 and a target of 84.7-83.0; hold if the position is broken; It is recommended to go long in batches when crude oil hits 83.5-83.0 for the first time, with a stop loss of 82.5 and a bullish target of 84.2-84.8;
TVC:USOILLong
by Jerome-Leon
WTI CRUDE OIL Important bearish breakout. Short the spike.WTI Crude Oil crossed under the 1D MA50 (and the Channel Up) for the first time since July 6th turning the 1D technical outlook bearish (RSI = 35.225, MACD = -0.060, ADX = 34.325). The short term timeframes are oversold so expect a minor spike to the 1D MA50 or near the 4H MA50. We will use that as our new sell entry and target the strong support zone consisting of the S1 level, the 1W MA50 and 1D MA200 (TP = 78.50). Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:USOILShort
by InvestingScope
3
WTI OIL Rising prices are here to stay for years to comeUnderstanding WTI Oil (USOIL) on the larger, long-term time-frames such as the 1W or 1M charts can broader your perspective and allow you to consider market dynamics that you never thought they were possible to affect the trend. From time to time we tend to make such studies in order to give you an idea of how the long-term trend may be shaped. Example of such pieces of publications include the following, where a slow down on the Oil rise allowed us to realize that inflation peaked and get a timely sell: Or the following that got as a timely buy while the price was still at $69.20 to target $100 after a break above the 13 year Lower Highs Resistance: ** Why is Oil rising now? ** On today's study we look into the 1M time-frame and attempt to explain the current non-stop rise (completed 4 straight green 1M candles) that has taken most of the market by surprise. Let's start by acknowledging that it started on strong foundation as the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) held on 3 separate tests. The 1M MA100 (green trend-line) that was formerly the Resistance (had 2 emphatic rejections on June and October 2018) since October 2014, has been holding as Support since the April 2021 bullish break-out. ** The MA levels, Inflation and comparison with DotCom ** At the same time it is the first time we have all three 1M MA50, 1M MA100 and 1M MA200 (orange trend-line) squeezed so close to each other since late 2001. That was during the DotCom Bubble burst. As you can see, the patterns of now and then aren't all that different. In our time the market is attempting a recovery from the Inflation Crisis, coming off a war and the generational COVID crash (that led to the inflation crisis of course). The 1M RSI fractals have started and peaked on similar oversold and overbought levels respectively, while holding on their strong corrections the 0.786 Fibonacci level. Similar situation with the 1M MACD, Oil is about to form the 2nd Bullish Cross of the fractal, placing us in relative time terms to the 2002 rise. ** Importance of MACD and conclusion ** Similar oversold 1M MACD Bullish Crosses were during the 2016 Oil crisis (May) and in the aftermath of the 2008/09 Housing Crisis (October 2009). As a result, in our humble view, if Oil completes that Bullish Cross, it will give the market a signal that the price will continue to rise for many years to come (unless of course a higher fundamental intervention takes place). In conclusion, this shouldn't surprise us, as Oil has risen along with stocks following such Bear markets. Do you also expect rising Oil prices in the near future? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILLong
by TradingShot
3
WTI CRUDE OIL Sharp correction to the MA50 (1d).WTI Crude Oil got rejected a little after crossing over Resistance (1) that was the double top of Nov 7th and Oct 10th 2022. The trend remains bullish but that calls for a standard correction to the Rising Support and the MA50 (1d). Trading Plan: 1. Sell on the current market price. Targets: 1. 86.00 (MA50 (1d) and Rising Support). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) is on a Falling Resistance while the price trading under a Rising Resistance, flashing a big bearish divergence. This can be the signal that breaks the Falling Support to the downside. Please like, follow and comment!!
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingBrokersView
5
WTI Bullish OutlookSince March 2020, crude oil prices have been on the rise with simple Fibonacci 38.2% pull backs along the way ... BUT nothing appears to be able to stop what's coming next. Per barrel is currently hovering around $90 but the gas pumps and tempers will exceed the charts as we move into mid-2024 on the heels of the 2024 election. Also included the Elliott waves 1 thru 5 showing the 38.2% retraces with the mid wave showing a perfect 61.8% retrace of it's prior price action. There's no guarantee that the 1.618% extension will occur so the 1.414% at the $180 price point appears to be more probable. NFA DYOR ... comments welcome.
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by kerdirks
2
WTI prints key reversal day ahead of FOMCWhilst we retain our view that oil prices could be headed for $100 further out, the trend seems to have hit a speed bump over the near-term. WTI broke above $90 with ease yet faltered around $95 with a shooting car candle with high volume (which makes it a potential key reversal day). A bearish divergence has also formed with the RSI (2) after it reached overbought. With the potential for the Fed to be more hawkish than expected, it could provide the catalyst for a pullback on WTI. A break below $90 confirms the near-term reversal is underway, with $87 making an initial target around the volume node from its preceding leg higher. $85 could also provide support around the August highs, which might tempt dip buyers more focussed on the fundamentals currently supporting higher oil prices.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by CityIndex
1
WTI CRUDE OIL: Long term target hit. Reversal to 1D MA50 imminenAfter WTI Crude Oil hit our long term target it managed to close a 1D candle under the 4H MA50 and on prior displays inside the three month Channel Up, that was a sell signal. The 1D timeframe has been normalized from the previous overbought technical state (RSI = 67.378, MACD = 2.060, ADX = 37.892), the 1D MACD is past a Bearish Cross, which makes a complete sell opportunity. We are short, targeting the bottom of the Channel Up and potentially the 1D MA50 as well (TP = 85.00). We are on an early long trade, targeting the course of the 4H MA50 (TP = 1.2275), even though a Channel Down top extension can even reach as high as 1.2425. Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:USOILShort
by InvestingScope
6