Crude oil - Bullish (daily timeframe)Overview on daily timeframe (same analysis of the previous one, with more details)
Wticrudeoil
Crude oil - BullishAfter tensions escalation i'd say that crude oil is definitely bullish at least to 84.5 $/barrel. Then we'll see.
WTI H1 / POTENTIAL LONG ENTRY / OIL IS GOING BULLISH 🛢Hello Traders!
This is my forecast for WTI H1. I see another retracement from the bullish channel, considering this an opportunity to execute a long entry until the resistance level and above the Previous Day's High.
If confirmed, I will execute a long entry.
Traders, if you liked my idea or if you have a different vision related to this trade, write in the comments. I will be glad to see your perspective.
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USOIL AMAZING BULLISH OPPORTUNIY Hello guys ,
it seems usoil started a bullish reversal after Breaking the neckline of the double bottom and an important keylevel on the daily tf.
if the price manages to do a pull back towards the area where the trendline + poc + demand zone is it could give a great great buying opportunity .
lets wait and see !
USOIL (W) will aim for the $81.5 price areaTVC:USOIL USOIL (W) will aim for the $81.5 price area
With a solid pinbar candlestick pattern, most likely, oil prices will return to the 81.5 price range
within the next 1-2 months before new fluctuations occur.
The Red Sea tensions - all you need to knowThe West Texas Intermediate crude oil has trended mostly sideways for over a month, moving between $68 and $75 per barrel. Yet, while the situation in the Middle East and the Red Sea continues to deteriorate, the oil market keeps growing increasingly ignorant of the dangers of a broader war in the region that could further disrupt the transit of goods and oil through (other) important shipping chokepoints and impact the oil supply (remember, the Middle East region accounts for about one-third of global oil supply).
To put into perspective how bad the situation in the Red Sea has become (following the start of the Israel-Hamas War), here are a few numbers: the number of cargo ships and oil tankers transiting through the Bab el-Mandev Strait fell by approximately 50%, and the volume of the cargo (measured in metric tons) dropped by about 67% between 7th October 2023 and last Friday (with most of the decline starting in mid-December 2023 after major shipping like companies halted transit through the Red Sea). In addition to that, since the start of the year (until last Friday), the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operation reported thirty-five instances of either attack, hijacking, incident, or suspicious approach in the area.
Furthermore, about a week and a half ago, the United States and the United Kingdom finally decided to take more aggressive steps against Houthi’s harassment, launching airstrikes on their positions in Yemen. In response to that, the rebels vowed to continue fighting the United States and Israel (and their allies), executing multiple new attacks on commercial and military vessels in the regional waters (the terrorist group also announced a safe passage for Russian and Chinese ships). In essence, Houthi’s attacks against the United States Navy equal a declaration of war, something the United States is trying to deny as it attempts to avoid an all-out war with Houthis and other proxies of Iran (and potentially Iran itself; do not forget this is a highly political question for the United States as it would mean higher prices of oil and a likely return of rising inflation).
Nevertheless, with Israel’s administration being opposed to stopping its campaign against Hamas in Gaza, it is improbable there will be any relief from Houthi’s attacks anytime soon. In fact, a lack of diplomatic efforts to end the Israel-Hamas War and to resolve the Red Sea crisis keeps increasing the risk of new parties entering the conflict and letting the war spiral out of control. As this has tremendous implications for the oil market (with the broader war being a highly bullish catalyst for the oil price), monitoring the situation in the Red Sea remains a high priority. However, as this scenario still remains only a speculation, our price target of $65 per barrel remains unaffected (at least for now); in the short term, though, we expect the USOIL to continue oscillating between $68 and $75 (and perhaps even breaking temporarily above this range).
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of the USOIL. Yellow arrows indicate significant events in the Middle East. It can be observed that oil rose only slightly in response to the eruption of the Israel-Hamas War on 7th October 2023, and then quickly reversed the direction. Once Houthi rebels began to ramp up their attacks on commercial and military ships in November 2023, oil ticked higher only a bit and then resumed a decline (it is important to note that Houthis were causing problems in the region already before the war). Then, in mid-December 2023, major shipping companies started to halt the transit of their ships through the region. Since then, the USOIL has trended mostly sideways (despite tensions continuing to rise).
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Neutral
Weekly time frame = Neutral
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
CRUDEOILA pullback trade for crudeoil. After almost resisting the levels of 81$ now crude has given a correction till that levels buying oil seeems favouable and could be considered fro a long setup. #crudeoil #wtic
USOIL H1 / POSSIBLE BEARISH MARKET STRUCTURE 🛢💲Hello Traders!
This is my idea related to USOIL H1. I see that WTI set a new WH and I expect a bearish move to close the FVG H1.
If confirmed, it's a good opportunity to execute a Short Trade.
Traders, if you liked my idea or if you have a different vision related to this trade, write in the comments. I will be glad to see your perspective.
____________________________________
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WTI Crude oil - last update. Our overview: Jitter due to the Red Sea tension persist. CoT released Friday "net long positions" report, showing an increasing long positions in futures and decreasing in options by the "non commercial". This could suggest that the market could be close to an upward movement of the price. Waiting for market mover data and news. Trends analysis: Primary(purple): upward corrective structure wave C, intermediate(green): upward impulsive structure wave 3, minor(yellow): upward impulsive structure wave 3.
Our current strategy: Moderately Long following wave3 of the minor trend(yellow). Our current position's risk profile @$72.58: delta +0.35, gamma +0.28 Hedging point: on breakout $72.30. or @area $74.00
Long setup for WTI oilYou can see clearly the up trend in oil.
I want to take entry from demand zone in chart
WTI OIL is a strong long-term buy opportunity.WTI Oil (USOIL) has hit today the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since October 24 2023. Today's analysis is on the 1W time-frame but we have explained the reasoning behind a long-term buy once the 1D MA50 would break, a month ago (December 19, see idea below):
That Buy Zone offers a low risk action ground for longs and as you can see on today's chart, it is also supported by the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which hasn't allowed a 1W candle to close below it for almost 3 years (since January 25 2021). At the same time the 3-year Support Zone has had 7 times that was hit and held, with the most recent being on December 11 2023.
As a result, if Oil closes a 1D candle above the 1D MA50, there are high chances of a strong medium-term rally on the 1W scale. So far the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) is the Resistance. All 3-year Support Zone rallies rose very aggressively and the two most recent hit at least the 82.50 level, which will be our Target.
This is just below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, a line that has been approached 4 times already since November 28 2022. Practically the market has been ranging within a 16-month Rectangle after the 2022 High.
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WTI Crude oil - last update Our overview: Red Sea tension on focus again. Divergence on hourly RSI. On breakout and close on hourly timeframe above $74.00 push the price straight to area $75.60/$76.00. On the other side, breakout of $72.80 could push again the price towards the bottom of the trading range. Trends analysis: Primary(purple): upward corrective structure wave C, intermediate(green): upward impulsive structure wave 3, minor(yellow): upward impulsive structure wave 3.
Our current strategy: Neutral follow the market. Our current position's risk profile @$73.95: delta -0.03, gamma +0.24 Hedging point: not set
WTI crude looks set to retrace before its next big leg higherWTI appears set tor a cheeky retracement. Volumes were falling during its leg higher from $68, and Wednesday closed with an exhaustion candle. Note the strong trading activity around $70 which indicates some bears were caught short and bulls initiated, which assumes short-covering helped fuel the rally and any retracement towards $70 could also be supported.
From here we’re looking for prices to revert to $70. But given the strong support around the June lows / $68 and false break of $70, the bigger picture view is for a bullish rally to develop following a retracement heading into the new year.
$80 seems feasible as an initial target, around the 200-day EMA. But as you’ll see in the next post, a bigger bullish reversal could be unfolding on the weekly chart.
WTI Crude oil - last update Our overview: Negative EIA data, worse then the previous API release, push the price back to retest the support @$71.00. Trends analysis: Primary(purple): upward corrective structure wave C, intermediate(green): upward impulsive structure wave 3, minor(yellow): upward impulsive structure wave 3.
Our current strategy: Moderately Long looking to follow the trend's wave with first target in area @$74.00(top of the actual trading range). Our current position's risk profile @$71.25: delta +0.25, gamma +0.23 Hedging point: on breakout $71.00
WTI Crude oil - last update Our overview: Conflicting API data once again suggests caution. Big draw in crude counter with big build in gasoline and distillates. Trends analysis: Primary(purple): upward corrective structure wave C, intermediate(green): upward impulsive structure wave 3, minor(yellow): upward impulsive structure wave 2.
Our current strategy: Still moderately Long looking to follow the trend's wave with first target @$74.00. Our current position's risk profile @$71.50: delta +0.20, gamma +0.21 Hedging point: on breakout $71.30
WTI Crude oil - last update. Our overview: The selloff of the yesterday's session, redraw the intermediate(green) trend's structure with a deep wave 2. Trends analysis: Primary(purple): upward corrective structure wave C, intermediate(green): upward impulsive structure wave 3, minor(yellow): upward impulsive structure wave 1.
Our current strategy: The breakout of $72.50 in the yesterday's session trigger the hedging point in our system, then we took profit and resetting our position's delta to moderately long
close to the yesterday's session low at $70.55. Our current position's risk profile @$70.70:
Delta +0.35, gamma +0.22
Hedging point: on breakout $70.50
Moderately Long looking to follow the trend's wave with first target @$72.50.
WTI Crude oilOur overview: Weak demand balance Middle East tensions bringing to the market a substantial weakness. Resistance @$74.00 showed in the first days of the year to be strong enough to reject the price two times. Our overview in the short period is long with target in area $79/$80. Trends analysis: Primary(purple): upward corrective structure wave C, intermediate(green): upward impulsive structure wave 3, minor(yellow): upward impulsive structure wave 3, intraday(orange): upward impulsive structure wave 1.
Our current strategy: Moderately Long looking to follow the trend's wave with first target @$75.00. Our current position's risk profile @$72.80: delta +0.25, gamma +0.21 Hedging point: on breakout $72.50
RSI "D": Neutral
Stochastic "D": Positive
RSI "H": Neutral
Stochastic "H": Negative
RSI "5min": Positive
Stochastic "5min": Positive
USOIL reacting only slightly to the tensions in the Red SeaIn mid-December 2023, we witnessed major shipping companies announce a halt to transit through the Red Sea. Then, with the launch of Operation Prosperity Guardian, we saw the same companies start reversing their decisions, only to again pause shipping quickly after the resumption (thanks to more attacks from Houthi rebels targeting Maersk ships). As such, the past three weeks in the oil market were marked by turmoil, affecting about 8.2 million barrels per day in transport through the region (and an estimated 12% of the world’s trade). With these tensions increasing, USOIL is reacting positively, and we acknowledge that USOIL may continue to oscillate between $68 and $75 in the short term (before diving lower). However, our price target of $65 per barrel stays in place.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Neutral
Weekly time frame = Bearish (turning neutral)
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
WTI CRUDE OIL: Targeting the 1D MA50.WTI Crude Oil is rebounding today aggressively after hitting and holding the 1W MA200, which as we've discussed on our channel, has been the long term Support since February 1st 2021. The rebound has turned the 1D technical outlook neutral (RSI = 47.857, MACD = -0.970, ADX = 22.204) but the 1D RSI is inside a Channel Up, which indicates that there might be a hidden bullish divergence for the long term.
Nevertheless, we cannot discuss any +25% to +30% moves as those in April and July 2023 unless the 1D MA50 breaks. Until then, we will focus on the short term and aim just under the 1D MA50 (TP = 74.50).
See how our prior idea has worked:
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WTI OIL Bearish below the 1D MA50.WTI Oil (USOIL) got rejected two days ago near the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been the downward Resistance since October 24, despite the fact that the price marginally broke above the 3-month Channel Down.
As long as it stays below the 1D MA50, the trend is bearish and we will target the 68.00 Low. On the long-term though, this is a huge Buy Zone since March but the price only rallied sustainably when a 1D candle closed above the 1D MA50. The 1D RSI is technically repeating the December 2022 bottom pattern, but we will only engage in buying above the 1D MA50, in which case we will target 82.50, which is a level reached both on the March and July's rallies.
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WTI Crude oilOur overview:
Despite EIA report a big draw in stock and the impact of the Red Sea commercial routes disruption, is still not clear, the market experienced a deep selloff. In our opinion due to end of year portfolios correction and take profit.
Trends analysis:
Primary(purple): upward corrective structure wave B, intermediate(green): downward corrective structure wave B, minor(yellow): upward corrective structure wave A, intraday(orange): upward impulsive structure wave 1.
Our current strategy:
Aggressive Long looking for a technical rebound with first target @$73.80. Our current position's risk profile @$72.20: delta +0.48, gamma +0.19
Hedging point: on breakout $71.50
WTI Crude oilOur overview: Once more API data highlighted weak demand, let's see if will be confirmed by EIA report scheduled today. Trends analysis: Primary(purple): upward corrective structure wave B, intermediate(green): corrective structure wave A, minor(yellow): downward impulsive structure wave 5, intraday(orange): downward impulsive structure wave 3.
Our current strategy: Neutral. Our current position's risk profile @$74.04: delta 0.06, gamma 0.017 Hedging point: Not set
Targets:
@$75.58
@$75.14
@$74.38
@$73.77
@$73.15
@$72.49
RSI "D": Neutral
Stochastic "D": Positive
RSI "H": Negative
Stochastic "H": Negative
RSI "5min": Negative
Stochastic "5min": Negative
Disruption to the oil supply chain averted (at least for now)Following the initiation of Operation Prosperity Guardian in the Red Sea, major shipping companies like Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd began to reverse their recent decisions to halt transit through this waterway. That is positive news for the world as the region is estimated to account for about 12% of global trade, with 340 million metric tons of cargo and 8.2 million barrels of oil passing through daily. Nonetheless, as disruption to the oil supply chain seems to be averted, this news is likely less favorable for the oil price, which is currently trading near $75.50 per barrel. With that said, we have no reason to change our outlook for the next year, and our price target stays at $65 per barrel; however, in the short term, we acknowledge that USOIL may move higher (potentially somewhere in the range between $77 and $78) before reversing. We will update our thoughts with the emergence of new developments.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL. The yellow arrow indicates a bullish breakout above the upper bound of the downward-sloping channel, which is quite bullish (unless invalidated).
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Slightly bullish
Weekly time frame = Bearish (turning neutral)
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
