WTICOUSD-Testing 50-Day EMAThe West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market fell on Wednesday to reach down towards the crucial 50-day EMA. The 50-day EMA is an area that will continue to cause a certain amount of attention, but it should be noted that we have sliced through the $80 level rather easily. We are closing towards the bottom of the range for the day, so now the question is whether or not we will have follow-through. That typically is the case that when you close towards the bottom of the range; quite often you will see a bit of follow-through in the next session.
There are a lot of concerns out there that the Biden administration may release the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which could bring down pricing for a short-term move, but longer-term it tends to have a very limited effect on the markets. Because of this, I think that we will eventually have a nice buying opportunity, but it is a scenario where we need to pay close attention to the idea of value as it occurs, because there is no reason that I can see for a longer-term trend change. The market looking at the consolidation area could probably see it as a bullish flag being formed.
This is a market that I think continues to offer plenty of value, so it is likely that we could eventually find quite a bit of buying pressure. Keep in mind that the inventory numbers coming out of the United States will continue to dictate where we go, and we have those over the next 24 hours. Underneath, I think the $75 level is going to end up being a bit of a floorin the market, unless of course there is some type of huge negative attitude out there, something that I have not seen much of recently. In fact, one could make an argument for the recent action forming a little bit of a big “potential double bottom” in what would be a continuation longer term. We will have to wait and see, but that is one potential set up if we can break above the highs of the day, extensively recapturing the $80 level. I do not like shorting oil right now, but that does not necessarily mean you need to jump in with both feet.
This is a market that I think continues to offer plenty of value, so it is likely that we could eventually find quite a bit of buying pressure.
Wticrudeoil
Technical analysis update: WTI oil (2nd November 2021)USOIL ceased its decline at 80.62 USD per barrel just three days ago. Since then USOIL reversed to the upside and now it trades around 84.25 USD per barrel. In our previous two ideas we noted that despite correction in price we would remain bullish on oil in medium-term and long-term. In addition to that, we noted correction in price could serve as good (re)entry opportunity for long position. Demand continues to pick up while recovery progresses further; and we continue to maintain bullish stance as we expect price to climb even higher. We would like to set new short-term price target to 85 USD per barrel. Our medium-term price target is 87.50 USD while our long-term price target remains 90 USD.
Technical analysis
RSI is bullish as it strives to penetrate 70 points into overbought territory. If it manages to do so, then we expect such occurence to be accompanied by further rise in price. Stochastic is also bullish, however, MACD is bearish. DM+ and DM- remain bullish. Although, ADX started to decline slightly which suggests that trend is weakening. Overall we are bullish on USOIL.
Support and resistance
Major resistance sits at 85.39 USD. Short-term support sits at 82.50 USD and Support 1 lies at 80 USD. Support 2 appears at 76.95 USD while Support 2 lies at 74.21 USD. Then major support level sits at 61.58 USD.
Our latest idea on USOIL from 28th October 2021:
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Technical analysis update: WTI oil (18th November 2021)We abandoned short-term price target of 85 USD in our previous idea (as correction resumed). In addition to that, we noted that it was very likely that price would drop towards 78 USD. Currently, USOIL trades slightly below that level. We will observe WTI oil in the following days and we will look for more weakness or possible end of correction. Though, at the moment, we think it is likely correction will continue little further towards 76 USD. Because of that we will watch support level at 76.95 USD; and we will observe whether this support will be able to hold further selling pressure. Technical analysis on daily time frame suggests more weakness for oil. Despite that, we think current price is very attractive to start considering (re)entry of long position in WTI oil, however, with big cautiousness.
Picture below shows USOIL on daily time frame.
It also shows possibility of bearish breakout below crucial support level at 76.95 USD. If this support is broken then we expect price to drop even further.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI and Stochastic are very bearish as they continue to move downward. MACD is also very bearish. Indeed, MACD nears crossover into bearish area. If MACD manages to perform crossover then we expect such occurence to be accompanied by more selling pressure. ADX contains low value which suggests that trend is either neutral or very weak. Technicals are overall bearish and suggest more trouble ahead for USOIL.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI has bearish structure. MACD remains in bullish territory, however, it strives to reverse into downside. Similarly, Stochastic is in bullish area but it already reversed its direction into downside. DM+ and DM- still suggest that bullish trend is present but ADX continues to decline which reflects that this trend is weakening.
Support and resistance
Major resistance sits at 85.39 USD while major support lies at 61.58 USD. Short-term support level sits at 76.95 USD. Another (closest) important support appears at 75 USD (as psychological support).
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
WTI starting to recover from inflation driven plungeHello everyone, as we all know the market action discounts everything :)
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Oil prices surged above $83 per barrel in volatile trading on Thursday, recovering from significant drops caused by concerns about rising US inflation, as OPEC reduced its 2021 oil demand prediction owing to high energy prices.
In a monthly report, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) stated that it expected oil consumption to average 99.49 million barrels per day (bpd) in the fourth quarter of 2021, a 330,000 bpd decrease from last month's prediction.
Possible Scenario for the market :
The market is currently trading at $81.26 and looks like it going to the support line located at $80.17 where a battle will happen between the Bears and the Bulls over control, the outcome will probably be in favor of the bulls which will cause the market to increase in value reaching the first resistance at $84.08.
in case the demand for oil increases even more then we will most likely see a further push that could reach the $88.00 level by the end of the week.
Technical Analysis show :
1) The market is below the 5 10 20 MA and EMA indicating a Bearish Short-term movement, but still above the 50 100 and 200 MA and EMA indicating a Bullish Long-term trend
2) The RSI is at 51.61 showing good strength in the market with a small Bullish divergence that could be a sign of a Bearish short-term trend.
3) The MACD is above the 0 line still indicating a Bullish market, but it has a Negative crossover between the MACD line and the Signal line indicating a small Bearish movement.
Support & Resistance points :
support Resistance
1) 80.17 1) 84.08
2) 78.63 2) 86.45
3) 76.26 3) 87.99
Fundamental point of view :
OPEC expects global consumption to hit 100 million bpd in the third quarter of 2022, three months later than predicted last month.
On Wednesday, data indicated that inflation in the United States surged by 6.2 percent, the quickest rate in 30 years, owing primarily to increasing energy prices, which pushed the dollar higher while sending Brent and WTI oil down by 2.5 % and 3.3 %, respectively.
A surge in US oil supplies following the government's release of some critical reserves pushed up prices even further.
In reaction to rising inflation, US President Joe Biden stated he directed the National Economic Council to concentrate on lowering energy costs and the Federal Trade Commission to crack down on market manipulation in the energy industry in order to reverse inflation.
This is my personal opinion done with technical analysis of the market price and research online from Fundamental Analysts and News for The Fundamental point of view, not financial advice.
If you have any questions please ask and have a great day !!
Thank you for reading.
WTI Cude (OIL) SELL TRADE IDEA
💹WTI Crude Oil ⏬ SELL @ 80.99
✅TP-1# 80.09
✅TP-2# 79.10
✅TP-3# 78.10
⛔️SL 82.00
N.B- If have small balance to trade. Plz avoid OIL trade now.
Because market highly volatile.
AronnoFX will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of
reliance on the information contained within this channel including
data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals
If you like this idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow.
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Brent bearish correction Oil buyers start to take the rally profits, by reaching 86.75 - 82.75 area we are on-sell correction after the bullish rally.
3 Oct 2018 is what we will see next few days, I see we have reached a good area to sell the oil targeting 68 - 70 area,
with some bearish tips as we saw in Monetary Policy Report Press Conference, market makers are pushing the oil price down to reduce inflation.
WTI CRUDE OIL - Long Trade Idea - Trend Following With AriasWaveThe previous idea was invalidated because we broke the low before we hit the entry.
This time it looks like Wave ii has completed and we are now heading for the highs in an impulsive manner.
Once again the idea is to get into a long position because if this is wave iii then price action won't be coming back to these levels anytime soon once it starts moving higher.
Entry: $84.86
Stop: $79.65
Target: TBA
As always, any breakdown below the Stop level before we hit the Entry automatically invalidates this idea.
Check out the wave analysis video linked in related ideas below.
Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader.
If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd?
Just remember: I am not a financial advisor, I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
WTI Cude (OIL) TRADE IDEA
AronnoFX will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of
reliance on the information contained within this channel including
data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals
If you like this idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow.
Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion about it,
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WTI Short setupThe WTI seem to be entering into a top setup, with a Daily MACD turning red and upper BB closing.
In H4 price have closed above the Upper BB and has been followed by a seller rejection.
I would try a short trade here at 84$ with a stop at 86.5$ and final target around 75.5$. At 81$ i would think of putting SL to BE.
Plan to be followed during the week..
Technical analysis update: WTI oil (28th October 2021)On 25th October 2021 USOIL reached our price target of 85 USD per barrel. After that we announced that we would not be surprised to see shortlived correction since USOIL reached overbought condition in the short-term. Now it is clear that price retraced from high of 85.39 USD to as low as 80.62 USD today. It is likely that correction will continue little longer since indicators point to more downside. In short-term we are bearish and we will observe whether support at 80 USD will manage to stop selling pressure. However, in long-term we remain bullish and we think that current price drop presents good opportunity for long position (re)entry. Our long-term price target remains 90 USD.
Technical analysis
RSI penetrated 70 points to downside. It is bearish. MACD and Stochastic also turned bearish. DM+ and DM- are due to perform bearish crossover. ADX started to decrease from recent peak. Price retraced towards 20-day SMA. We will observe whether price manages to hold above 20-day SMA which would be bullish sign. Overall technical analysis is very bearish for WTI oil.
1-day RSI:
Support and resistance
Short-term resistance sits at 82.60 USD while major resistance sits at 85.39 USD. Support 1 appears at 80 USD and Support 2 sits at 76.95 USD. Support 3 lies at 74.21 USD. Major support sits at 61.58 USD.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
WTI CRUDE OIL - Long Trade Idea - Long Entry PointAt this point it appears that wave ii may be a very small and shallow correction which is indicative of wave iii price action.
If this particular count is correct then it indicates specific important levels which can be used as entry and support.
The idea is to get into a long position because if this is wave iii then price action won't be coming back to these levels anytime soon once it starts moving higher.
Entry: $84.85
Stop: $81.51
Target: TBA
As always, any breakdown below the Stop level before we hit the Entry automatically invalidates this idea.
Check out the related video linked below which outlines the bigger picture.
Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader.
If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd?
Just remember: I am not a financial advisor, I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
US Oil (WTI Crude Oil) Analysis and trade IdeaOil has broken structure to the downside, and a return to the originating impulse was expected... and now fulfilled. What now? This video explains identifies the most likely scenarios... and the higher probability movement.
I believe price is indicating further declines, for a shallow pullback on the HTFs.
OIL SALES? After reaching the 261% fibbo extension, hitting the guideline of the last two highs on the high side, after 9 consecutive weekly green candles and plus the sum of the first low of the uptrend since 60 is a good time to think about sales. no?
This last weekly candle has left us a curious wick and the formation of an MHM, apart from all this we have to bear in mind that the price comes with a lot of upward force due to this we have to watch for false leaks at the maximum.
I don't want to waste too much. Greetings and good luck.
WTICOUSDThe West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has fallen rather hard to kick off the trading session on Thursday, but as you can see, we have rallied quite drastically to recapture the $82.50 region. By doing so, we ended up forming a bit of a hammer, which of course is a bullish sign. By doing so, I do think that it is only a matter of time before we continue to go higher. After all, we are in a very strong uptrend and that has not changed, despite the fact that we have pulled back over the last couple of days. Looking at this chart, the $80 level underneath is significant support, as it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. The $80 level underneath has been important more than once, so therefore I think we will continue to pay close attention to it. At this point, I like the idea of picking up bits and pieces of value on dips, as the crude oil market has been so heavily influenced by the reopening trade and of course the fact that we are looking very likely to continue to see demand pick up due to the fact that there was so little in the way of capital expenditure over the last several months, and of course there has been an increase in burn rate. Furthermore, other forms of energy have failed miserably, and therefore power plants are being forced to burn petroleum as well. With the noisy behavior, I think it is only a matter of time before we see this market go looking towards the $85 level. The $85 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and one that will be a target. If we can break above there, then it is likely that this market takes out to the upside.
Underneath, the $80 level should offer quite a bit of psychological and structural support, so that being said it is likely that we will see plenty of buyers in that area. The 50 day EMA currently sits just above the $75 level, and it does suggest a certain amount of resiliency and could be the “floor the market” going forward. Regardless, this is a longer-term uptrend, and we cannot fight it. Energy demand will continue to be very strong going forward, and therefore we should continue towards $90 over the longer term.
Technical analysis update: WTI oil (26th October 2021)WTI oil continues to rise along with other commodities. Recently, USOIL reached our short-term price target of 82.50 USD and then our medium-term price target of 85 USD. In light of these events we would like to change long-term price target of 90 USD to medium-term price target. In short-term we remain neutral as price of USOIl remains overvalued at the moment. Because of that we would not be surprised to see shortlived correction in WTI oil. Despite that we continue to be bullish on USOIL as rising demand and other fundamental factors support bullish case for it.
Technical analysis
RSI continues to move sideways in overbought territory. Its current value suggests that price is due to correct which would be very healthy for oil before next climb to 90 USD per barrel. We await reversal in RSI which will be accompanied by selling pressure. However, Stochastic and MACD remain bullish. Though, MACD loses momentum. ADX continues to grow which suggest that bullish trend is very strong and it is possibly nearing its peak.
Suport and resistance
Short-term support sits at 82.50 USD while short-term resistance sits at recent high of 85.39 USD. Support 1 lies at 80 USD and Support 2 sits at 76.95 USD. while Support 3 appears at 74.21 USD. Then major support sits at 61.58 USD.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Oil 4hrs distribution schematics!Hello my beauties.
Usoil has created some clear distribution schematics targeting the low indicated by the red arrow based on an exact measurement of the volatility in the trading range in red.
If you find this idea to be helpful like, follow, and drop a comment below if you'd want me to analyse a different pair.
Consider supporting me if you think I am providing you with value.
Peace.
Luca, TrickleDownFX