Wticrudeoil
USOIL - Russian oil ban = higher oil pricesMore than a week ago, we warned about potential EU's ban on Russian oil and the risk it poses for the higher price of oil. We suggested that this step would lead to higher prices of oil in the short-term. Just two days ago, Germany was reported to back a gradual ban on Russian oil. Because of that we abandon our short-term and medium-term price targets. Although, our long-term price target remains in place.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI points to the upside which is bullish; however, over the past few days, it shows choppy pattern. MACD oscillates near the midpoint; if it manages to break above it, then we expect it to bolster a bullish case for USOIL. Stochastic is bullish. DM+ and DM- are bearish but due to perform bullish crossover. ADX signals presence of no significant trend. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish for USOIL.
Illustration 1.01
The illustration above shows the rectangle pattern - in which most of the choppy price action has been going on lately.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI is neutral. MACD is highly elevated and flattening at the same moment, which makes it neutral. Stochastic reversed to the upside. DM+ and DM- show bullish conditions in the market. However, ADX's signals that these conditions deteriorated over the past four weeks. Overall, the weekly time frame is mixed.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
USOIL - A gloomy outlook for WTI oilA few weeks ago, we noted that we believe USOIL peaked and is headed lower. Indeed, we set a long-term price target of 90 USD. Now, we would like to change this price target to medium-term and set a new long-term price target of 80 USD. Additionally, we would also like to set a short-term price target of 95 USD.
Illustration 1.01
Yellow arrows indicate the recent bullish breakout (above the trendline) and subsequent loss of momentum.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-, which recently performed the bearish crossover. In addition to that, ADX halted its decline, suggesting the resumption of the bearish trend. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish for WTI oil.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI and Stochastic are developing bearish structures. MACD performed the bearish crossover. DM+ and DM- show bullish conditions in the market. However, ADX signals that the bullish trend is losing momentum. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
WTI OIL Neutral short-term buy watch these break-out levels.WTI Oil (USOIL) just broke above the Lower Highs trend-line that started after the brutal March 08 multi-year High. The 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) has turned into a short-term Support while the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) remains the short-term Resistance.
Despite the Lower Highs trend-line, the price action remains rather neutral due to March's wild swings and high volatility, unless either the 93.10 Support or the 117.00 Resistance break.
A break below 93.10 should be bearish towards the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) and then the December 20 low, but still it would be best to get a closing below the 85.50 High of 2021 before engaging into long-term selling.
A break above 117.00 should be bullish towards the 1.5 Fibonacci extension (152.60) long-term, which is the less likely scenario.
The safest strategy on the medium-term is to scalp inside the neutral zone.
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USOIL - WTI oil peaked and now it is headed lowerFor the past year, we were predominantly bullish on USOIL. However, this came to a change recently, and we turned neutral to bearish on USOIL. That is due to Strategic Petroleum Reserves being released in vast quantities, production hike talks, and the eventual need to lower energy prices. Therefore, despite the general bullish narrative, we make a contrarian case for the lower cost of oil. Indeed, we would like to set a long-term price for USOIL to 90 USD per barrel.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows USOIL on the daily time frame. It also shows the resistance at a slope (white line) and the bullish breakout above it (indicated by the yellow arrow). We will look for a potential breakdown in price and invalidation of the bullish breakout.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI and MACD are neutral. However, MACD needs to be observed for potential bullish crossover above 0 points in the following days. Stochastic oscillates in the bearish area, although it points to the upside. DM+ and DM- show bearish conditions in the market. ADX indicates the trend is weak. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI continues to develop a bearish structure. However, for the past three weeks, RSI started to flatten, making it neutral. MACD also started to flatten, making it neutral too. DM+ and DM- are bullish. ADX seems to have peaked; indeed, ADX started to decline, which suggests that the bullish trend of a higher degree is weakening.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
WTIUSD OIL bearish mediumtermWTIUSD OIL bearish
WTI broke below a key long-term pennant that had been squeezing the price action earlier in the week, with some technicians taking this as a sign that WTI will fall back towards support in the $90 area.
Projection would be 60. But on Mediumterm i think we will have conditions to go to 93.50 or 90.00. Would be our targets.
I will be a false breakout we will recover to retest ma50 4h near 102 area.
For now seems we retested today the pennant and we have conditions to have an impulse to the downside.
Targets. Supports, Resistances on chart.
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Be carefull, patient and discipline.
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This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only! You can use the information from the post to make your own trading plan for the market.
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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information discussed in this presentation or linked to from this presentation are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice.
This Plan can be changed anytime, depending on how the price will arrive at the level and what will be happening on my level of interest for entry. Then I will decide if I will enter or not.
So please don't just blindly follow this. The author of the analysis does not accept liability for any loss or damage.
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WTI OIL UPTREND TO 110WTI OIL UPTREND TO 110
Disclaimer:
I am not a financial advisor nor am I telling you what to do with your capital.
I am simply stating my thoughts on the financial markets.
Take what I say with caution and do your own research.
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Results are not typical so anything can happen in these markets, so proceed with caution.
Buy or Sell decision on Oil is about to comeAs expected price broken down the wedge which is a reaction of 618 retracement of the downside movement. This will potentially create an impulse move to the downside when price retrace a little bit up and unable to break the resistance. However, it's also in its crucial area as it rejected in SMA(20). Buy Oil when price breaks up the resistance / the last swing high
WTI OIL Can the death fractal of 2008 be repeated?We haven't looked into WTI Oil recently, the last post I made was on March 08, calling what I thought at the time as the medium-term peak:
The price did eventually pull-back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and rebounded as it constitutes the medium-term Support, following the March 2021 sequence.
On a much larger scale though, and since the war isn't over yet and inflation runs wild, I thought it would be beneficial looking at the last time similar conditions were leading the Oil market higher. Sadly, that was during the 2008 peak of the U.S. Housing Bubble.
As you see, today's 2021-2022 fractal can be related to a great extent to the 2007-2008 sequence. If the market dynamics have been indeed aligned as in 2008, then Oil has entered the final phase towards the blow-off top, as it rebounded on its 1D MA50. Now of course, reaching the 2.382 Fibonacci extension around $178.00 for a blow-off top, seems even under the latest aggressive conditions, as unrealistic. But a value around $150.00 as a Higher High to the March 08 shock, could very well be printed.
Do you think the market will follow in 2008's footsteps and if so what is your projected top?
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WTI Cude (OIL) BUY TRADE IDEA
Hello Traders, here is the full analysis for this pair,
let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions,
the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be
satisfied. I suggest you keep this pair on your watch list and see if
the rules of your strategy are satisfied.
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WTI oil - Price drops due to release of the SPRWTI oil rose to as high as 129.98 USD on 7th March 2022. However, today USOIL fell to as low as 115.51 USD. Currently, the price of USOIL trades around 170 USD price tag. We remain bullish on oil as we expect bullish factors to persist for a while longer. However, we also remain very cautious as we think any progress in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine could possibly put pressure on rising oil prices.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI exhibits extreme strength of the bullish trend as it holds for so long in the overbought territory. However, this raises a warning signal. MACD and Stochastic remain bullish. DM+ and DM- show that same condition in the market. ADX grows which suggests the trend is gaining strength. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish; however, it starts to flash first warning signs.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI is overbought. MACD and Stochastic are bullish. DM+ and DM- are also bullish. ADX increases which suggests the trend is gaining momentum. Overall, the weekly time frame is bullish.
Please feel free to express your own ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering trade.