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WTI/Oil 4h Technical Analysis during IranVSIsrael warDespite Iran's attack on Israel, the prices of Brent and WTI crude oil remained stable. However, in the event of a reciprocal response from Israel to Iran within the next 24 hours, the price of oil is expected to make a significant upward jump from its long-term trend line. Currently, the price of WTI crude oil is within its supportive range on the 4-hour timeframe, and last week, it broke above a long-term daily trend line, which is now being tested with a pullback and a bearish candle which can be a fake bearish sign by geopolitics issues! The RSI is in a suitable range for buyers and playing around 44, so opening long positions on oil is the best decision at the moment. Entry: CMP at 84.7 - 85 even TP: 92.627 TP: 98.34 TP:106.52 TP: ATH Around 168
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by Money_Hedge
Crude oil fluctuates and rises, and is about to go up WTI crude oil prices rose choppily despite a somewhat downbeat inventory report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and a stronger-than-expected March consumer price index (CPI) report (which may further delay the Federal Reserve's first rate cut). The current geopolitical environment continues to provide support for oil prices. Crude oil real-time market analysis: The 4-hour upper track pressure is at the 87 mark. The daily SAR indicator has appeared at a high level and diverged downwards since yesterday. The current extension point is at the 87.5 line. The defensive resistance lies in the daily Bollinger Band upper track position of 88.1. If crude oil prices break down, focus on the 84 mark and the daily MA5 moving average of 83.5. On the whole, crude oil prices continue to fluctuate at high levels, and it is enough to maintain the high-sell-low-low mentality until it breaks the range. U.S. trading strategy: Crude oil is recommended to go short in batches at 86.9-87.5, stop loss if it breaks 88.2, target 86-85, hold if it breaks below 84; go long when the low hits 84.5 (±2 points) for the first time, stop loss 83.7, target 85.5 -86.2;
TVC:USOILLong
by Jerome-Leon
Oil: Thoughts and analysis Today's focus: Oil Pattern – Continuation? Support – 85.38 Resistance – 87.37 Hi, traders; thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at oil on the daily. After a surge from the USD caught a lot of attention yesterday, we are watching oil after it rejected a push lower by sellers and continues to hold in a potential continuation type set-up. Do you think that price is showing signs of a continuation? Could a close above yesterday's high signal a new move higher that could test resistance at 87.37? Watch out for a new move lower that tests the 85.50 area, as that could be a sign that sellers have more numbers than first thought. Good trading.
EIGHTCAP:USOUSDLong
by Eightcap
#XTIUSD/WTIOIL: 2000 Pips Buying Opportunity! Do not miss outFirst prediction on XTIUSD turned out to be a successful one where take profit '1' hit . successfully which gave us nice 900 pips in profit. Now we are looking at the broader picture on XTIUSD, targeting 96.00 region which remain crucial for many traders. Price is at the right zone to enter swing, take entry with accurate stop loss that suits your trading style. Please do your own research too before taking any buying entry on XTIUSD. Like and share for more!
FXOPEN:XTIUSDLong
by Setupsfx_
7
#XTIUSD/USOIL: Will bull take price to $100?Dear Traders, Hope you are doing great, US OIL we can see a strong bullish impulse in coming months, in coming months we can target US OIL to hit 79.00 region first then $85.. and final target will be $100. Plus, wait for price to breakthrough the bearish trend line and once it does you can take safe entry. If you want to take higher risk you can enter now with a accurate risk management. Sellers exhausted and we can see in daily timeframe as price have failed to break through recent LOWER LOW. This is a good sign for us when we are eying for big target. Please like and comment if you agree with the idea ;)
FXOPEN:XTIUSDLong
by Setupsfx_
26
XTIUSD(USOIL): 07/04/2024 We are pleased to inform you that our previous four setups on XTIUSD have been successfully respected. We maintain our belief that our initial target of $100 is highly achievable. The price has rebounded effectively from our initial concept. At this juncture, we anticipate a minor correction before the price reaches our designated area. Our immediate target is $92, which represents a substantial 1000 pips from our entry point. Our ultimate take profit objective remains at 1800 pips.
FXOPEN:XTIUSDLong
by Setupsfx_
6
Time for a small pullback before higher price tags?West Texas Intermediate crude oil has increased nearly 20% since the start of 2024 and is currently trading near $86.50 per barrel. The precarious situation in the Red Sea, production cuts by OPEC (and its allies), and the inability of the United States to bring more production online fast enough have greatly contributed to the rising oil prices in the past four months. Going forward, it is unlikely that the geopolitical issues in the Middle East will improve anytime soon, especially following a severe escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran earlier this week when Israel killed two Iranian generals by airstrike in Damascus, Syria (not to mention constant failures in peace negotiations between Hamas and Israel, and Israel’s plans to continue military operations in Gaza). These actions will likely provoke retaliation from Iran in the form of more attacks on Israel through its proxies. As these relationships seem to have entered a spiral of reciprocating aggression, the odds of a huge war spillover continue to grow, which has enormous implications for this oil-rich producing region and the oil market itself. On the subject of technicals, the daily and weekly time frames are bullish. However, the USOIL broke above the ascending channel on Tuesday, and the RSI reached overbought territory on the daily timeframe. Besides that, the price also deviated too far from its 20-day and 50-day SMAs, which increases the chances of a short-term pullback in the price of oil. Nonetheless, the probability of oil reaching $90 per barrel in the coming weeks continues to rise. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the upward-sloping channel on USOIL’s daily chart. The yellow arrow indicates a breakout above the channel. Illustration 1.02 The chart above illustrates simple support/resistance levels derived from past peaks and troughs. Alternative support levels lay at $85.85, $83.56, and $79.72. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILLong
by Tradersweekly
WTICO Outperforms BCO on US Oil Production RiseWTICO (West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil) has recently been outperforming BCO (Brent Crude Oil). This trend coincides with an increase in US-produced oil replacing sanctioned Indian refined oil. Potential Opportunity in WTICO The shift in market dynamics could present an opportunity for traders considering long positions in WTICO. However, as always, it's important to conduct your own research and consider factors like: • Market Volatility: Oil prices can fluctuate significantly due to various factors. • Global Oil Production: Changes in global oil production can impact WTICO's price. • Your Investment Strategy: This trade should align with your overall risk tolerance and investment goals. Stay Informed, Make Informed Decisions We recommend staying updated on market developments before making any investment decisions. We're Here to Help Please don't hesitate to contact us if you have any questions or would like to discuss this further within the comments.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
Israel strikes Iranian consulate, what does WTI chart tells us?Hi, 1PERCENT here. Today I am sharing a chart that I drew a few years ago. Contrary to crypto where we have fast movements of 30% intraday, Bonds, commodities, inflation rates, etc. are "slow movers"... but only in peaceful times. So patience is required for investors who focus on the forest. You were correct, but 10 years early. Now is your time to shine. #PeterSchiff #MikeMaloney WTI crude oil price that bounced from the $68-74 support zone . This support zone held well even last year when mass media and the EIA (US government's puppy) kept screaming that we have an oversupply of oil & gas. Remember what happened back in 2022 when oil went to $128? Especially those in Europe & Asia? Pay attention & Be prepared for the changes occurring in our societies. Stay safe. 1PERCENT
TVC:USOILLong
by RVD_1PERCENT
US OIL (WTI) MARKET ANALYSE. (READ CAPTION)Technical Analysis: Incorporate key trading indicators such as the double line resistance breakout, pullback support, and demand zone analysis to assess price movements in the US Oil market. Identify channels and trendlines to spot potential breakout or breakdown points, confirming with volume and momentum indicators like relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence divergence (MACD). Additionally, monitor the US Dollar Index (DXY) for its impact on oil prices, considering its inverse correlation. Stay vigilant for opportunities at support and demand zones, utilizing these levels for entry and exit points in your trading strategy. If you like this idea please support with boost comment and follow thanks for with us.
TVC:USOILLong
by Alexview009
A Renko Trading Strategy with Multiple Indicators (Update 3)An update from the last summary: Stating the obvious but the recurring pattern did not play out. This was a painful past couple of days but some realizations that I will walk through here for anyone who may be on a similar journey or realizations. “Buy high and sell low” or “buy support and sell resistance” are simple words to speak, to walk through in back testing, but, in the heat of the moment with live data and markets unfolding in ways you weren’t expecting make these phrases an near impossible accomplishment. As for the chart setup, I’ve with the following for the Renko WTI/CL chart: 25 tick block size and a 15-minute timeframe (more on this later) DEMA at 12 and 20 MA at 20 with a 9 period (or block in case of Renko) WMA Stoch of 5,3,3 and 25,3,3 DMI of 5,5 Bull Bear Power at 25 (this is new and seems to provide good insights) Wednesday and Thursday had me watching the Renko charts waiting for an opportunity to go short (remember, my trading style is to buy either Calls or Puts as near to the money as possible and at least 3 to 4 months out). From the patterns I saw on the Renko, I firmly believed that the market was ready to sell off and I wanted to be in. As an aside, I cap my losses at 10% of the price I pay for the option. In my losses this week, I realized that my strategies for every period of time that I’ve tried to trade had basically been a breakout trader. It wasn’t that I made a definitive statement of “Hey, my methodology is that of a breakout trader” but more like “Hey, I need to see confirmation of the price movement before I enter”. The problem is that the confirmation I was looking for was well after price had started moving and, as I looked at it, it was what could be classified as a breakout. And it was in my 3rd loss for the week, that I realized what I was doing wasn’t working. Sure, I could find points in time where it would have seemed to work but not this week. As closed out my 3rd loss, I read back through some items I had highlighted in the “Pivot Boss” book referenced earlier and in it found the pages were I had marked up the callout that you have to buy at support and sell into resistance if your going to succeed. It seem intuitive but in reality, it goes completely against my nature while trying to find an entry point with live data flying by. By now, if you’ve read this far, you may have picked out some items that resonate with you or you may be finding this as a serious source of entertainment :D For the discussion that continues, you’ll need to reference the previous article I wrote to see the specific charts before the price action on Thursday. The following link will give you view of how price played out. The red rectangle outline on the chart is where I was looking for price to repeat a similar pattern noted in the related article. How simple (and unrealistic) could this be. What played out was a price movement that I didn’t know how to handle and took me some time to figure out where to get in. As price continued to go up, I realized this was where I would usually just try to get in and then, I would get in at a intra-day high, have price pull back and 10-20% of my option value hit and I’d be out just to watch the market reverse. So, on this day, I resolved myself not to make a trade unless I could figure out this “buy support and sell resistance” thing. In my resolve, I agreed to some points: I will only buy at support and will sell into resistance: (the hardest concept known to man, not in understanding but execution) The key must be in the Camarilla Pivots so use them and the system that is outlined in the book. Or, as close as you can with how you want to trade. Renko chart setting will stay at 25 ticks for a block size and 15 minutes for a timeframe. What does this mean for Renko in TV? It means that price of a 25 tick increment must be held for 15 minutes before the block is committed or printed. Because volume profile and camarilla pivots are not a natural fit on the Renko charts, I’ll create a candle chart side-by-side to the Renko chart and then place all of these indicators on it. Additionally, all of the mark-ups I do for projecting the volume area on the chart and the opening range will be done on the candle chart The Renko chart will continue to have the indicators I track on it but they will be for confirmation and helping to form an opinion of the market and nothing to do with entry or exit. Remember, I want to buy support and sell resistance and not breakouts. I wanted to have multiple periods of levels on my candle chart so I included 3 sets of camarilla, a daily, weekly, and monthly set of levels. The next big decision I had to make was the timeframe for the candle chart itself. After much experimentation and debate with myself, I landed with the following: Start with an hourly chart. The first general notion of entry and if at support or resistance will come from the hourly chart. I will continue with my volume area and opening range markup but it will be for a weekly timeframe. Meaning that the volume profile indicator is set to weekly and I use the first 5 hours of the week to set the opening range. From these markups I’ll create an opinion of the coming week and a trading plan based on what I see. Then, I’ll let price movement between the camarilla pivots prove out my opinion or lead me to adjust it. Once I find a potential trigger, I will switch the 1hr candle chart to a 5 minute candle chart and look for candle setups to trigger the actual trade. What do I use for triggers and how to I decide where to look? The following chart is a bit of an eye chart but you get the idea. With the 3 camarilla pivots plus a year pivot, you can see the various levels. While it may seem like a confused mess, there is some method to the madness. The Camarilla pivots in TV allow you to color code the levels plus set the size or pixel width of the lines of the levels. For all periods, I set the pivot to black, R1/S1 and R2/S2 to purple and then based on the book’s recommendation, R3/S4 to red, R4/S3 to green, and R5/S5 to blue. For the daily, week, monthly, and yearly pivots, I set their pixel width to 1px, 2px, 3px, and 4px respectively. This is how I get a visual clue on what timeframe price is approaching (by the width) and the type of triggers or market behavior I should be looking for based on the color. I will use the weekly, monthly, and hourly pivots to look for price levels of support or resistance. It will be at these levels that I’ll look for price action to provide insight as to what the market wants to do with the level (there is a good discussion in the “Pivot Boss” book on identifying candle patterns that distills a lot of complexities of endless chapters of concepts into a few simple ones in one chapter). Once I see some type of candle pattern on the 1 hour chart that could indicate a trigger to enter, I change it to a 5 minute chart to find a pattern in the price movement of the next candle to make the entry. In theory, this should provide me with an entry at support; don’t wait for a confirmation via a breakout. So, why mess with the Renko charts then? Fair enough of a question; I believe that the Renko chart setup will filter noise out of the view and provide a cleaner view of support and resistance lines due to the nature of its makeup. If you follow along with any of this in your own charts, you will begin to see that the pivots begin to form identifiable lines of support and resistance in the Renko chart. And, back to the point that the Renko setup I have with the specific indicators and their settings seem to provide a good path toward confirmation of trends and positions. Another key issue I was struggling with was how to correlate the Renko chart with the candle chart. This is where I came up with the 5-minute chart which, after thinking about it, I realized that the 5-minute chart would reconcile nicely with the 15-minute Renko chart. If you look at how Renko charts are printed, they will print on the time frame that you set so, if a brick prints, it should do so on a :15-minute boundary. And, the 5-minute candle will correlate to it. The next chart shows the Renko with the 1hr candle side-by-side with the same rectangle. The rectangle on the 1hr is a reasonable estimate but squarely in the middle is an interesting candle formation that happens to be near the daily S5 and the weekly R1. I looked at this for awhile in real-time and thought, how do you really decide to make this trade? It seems like price has moved further from the trigger before you have the nerve to pull the trigger on the trade. Plus, if you look at the DEMA on the Renko at this time, it’s still set bearish with 20 above the 12 and the -DI was still swapped above the +DI. All things I’ve used in the past and now causing paralysis in pulling the trigger in a “buy at support” trade. The next is the same chart setup but I’ve switched to the 5 minute view and have adjusted the red rectangle in the candle chart a little. The candle chart shows the boundary of the lowest red brick, the one red brick to the left and the two green bricks to the right. In this price action, candle on the one hour chart (engulfing is corroborated by the extended wick of the green brick that is the first reversed color in the down move. However, with the DEMA swapped bearish, what would lead you to look to buy on this. There are valid cases where price continues down from the one green brick. This is where the importance of the camarilla pivots along with the 5 minute chart come in. With the engulfing candle on the 1-hour chart and the green brick on the Renko, what I should have done is use the 5-minute chart with the various pivots to find support and candle patterns to enter the market long. This would have been fulfilling the mantra of “Buy Support; Sell Resistance”. The following chart zooms in to both the Renko and the 5-minute candle in hopes to show details of how to get from potential triggers to confirmations and physical entries with tighter reins on the stops to guard more on the ‘Hope this will work’ strategy. By using the 15-minute Renko and the 5-minute chart, I can now see exactly what’s going on in the Renko bricks to get a better feel of what the market is doing. The blue double arrow on the Renko correlates with the 5-minute candle. With the first green brick being a trigger, then the key is to look at what is going on once that brick prints to see how price behaves around the Camarilla pivots. The green dashed line is the time that the first green brick printed (committed, good to go). So, what is important is to now watch the price to find a setup to enter. Or we see the market push through the support of the camarilla pivots that are in close proximity and begin the search for an entry short. The chart below is zoomed in even more on the candle chart with the daily Camarilla S4 which, from a daily context, is the last level of support before more sellers hop in and drive price lower. I’ve outlined this pivot in a green rectangle and here you can see price action and find some interesting setups. I’ve put some black arrows at some of the more interesting candles and those which are probably some type of reversal patters of 2 or 3 in nature. I’ll end this here but have more in my notes that I’ll include in a future update.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by mxb1961
U.S. oil prices will continue to rise on March 14th. As the four major inventories continue to decrease. U.S. oil continues to rise. WTI quotation as of closing: 79.153 U.S. API crude oil inventories for the week to March 8 (10,000 barrels) (-5.221 million barrels) U.S. EIA Cushing, Oklahoma crude oil inventories for the week to March 8 (-1.536 million barrels) EIA crude oil inventories in the United States for the week to March 8 (-220,000 barrels) EIA Cushing, Oklahoma crude oil inventories in the United States for the week to March 8 (596,000 barrels) BLACKBULL:WTI FPMARKETS:WTI BLACKBULL:WTI NYMEX:WTI1! MATBAROFEX:WTI1! There are good motivations for the rise in oil prices. At the beginning of the Asian market, oil was stable above 79. Judging from short-term trends, market demand continues to increase due to the spread of geopolitics. It is expected to continue to rise above 80. At the same time, OPEC countries have also decided to reduce production. If there is no physical fall below 79 in the short term, you can directly buy. If the body falls sharply and falls below 79. We can buy near 78.6 in the second position personal suggestion: 79.-79.3 buy. sl78.TP80.6 The transaction price is based on the real-time price of TradingView. When you are not a member and follow the above operations, remember to control risks.
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by T0_messenger
WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis: Trends, Tensions, and TurnaroundsThe WTI light crude oil benchmark is currently navigating a complex landscape, trading around $83.50 amidst a convergence of factors influencing its trajectory. At present, the market finds itself within a critical juncture, characterized by the interplay of supply dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and currency movements. Recent market movements have seen WTI prices facing downward pressure, largely attributed to the resurgence of the US Dollar (USD) and unexpected increases in US crude and gasoline inventories. The hawkish remarks from US Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller have bolstered the Greenback, signaling a cautious approach towards interest rate adjustments. Consequently, a stronger USD renders dollar-denominated oil more expensive for foreign investors, thereby curbing demand and exerting downward pressure on WTI prices. Moreover, the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) report revealing a surprising build-up in US crude inventories further compounded the bearish sentiment surrounding WTI prices. This unexpected uptick in stockpiles added to the downward pressure on prices, reflecting a delicate balance between supply and demand dynamics in the market. Despite these bearish indicators, the geopolitical landscape presents a contrasting narrative. Escalating tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine have injected a degree of uncertainty into global oil markets. The intensified attacks on Russia's oil infrastructure by Ukraine, coupled with ongoing geopolitical unrest, have the potential to disrupt global supply chains and mitigate the downward pressure on WTI prices. Amidst this backdrop, market analysts are closely monitoring key technical indicators for potential market reversals. The presence of an H4 supply area, coupled with the formation of a possible Double Top pattern and overbought conditions signaled by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggests the possibility of a reversal in WTI prices. However, the outcome remains uncertain, contingent upon the interplay of market forces and geopolitical developments in the coming days. In conclusion, the WTI crude oil market is navigating a complex web of factors, encompassing supply dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and currency fluctuations. While bearish indicators weigh on prices, geopolitical uncertainties and technical signals hint at the potential for a market reversal. As market participants continue to monitor developments, the future trajectory of WTI prices remains subject to ongoing market dynamics and geopolitical events.
ICMARKETS:XTIUSDShort
by FOREXN1
1
Options Blueprint Series: Perfecting the Butterfly SpreadIntroduction to the Butterfly Spread Strategy A Butterfly Spread is an options strategy combining bull and bear spreads (calls or puts), with a fixed risk and capped profit potential. This strategy involves three strike prices, typically employed when little market movement is expected. It's an excellent fit for the highly liquid energy sector, particularly CL WTI Crude Oil Futures Options, where traders seek to capitalize on stability or minor price fluctuations. Understanding CL WTI Crude Oil Futures Options WTI (West Texas Intermediate) Crude Oil Futures are one of the world's most traded energy products. These futures are traded on the NYMEX and are highly regarded for their liquidity and transparency. The introduction of Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures has further democratized access to oil markets, allowing for more granular position management and lower capital requirements. Key Contract Specifications for Crude Oil Futures: Standard Crude Oil Futures (CL) Contract Size: Each contract represents 1,000 barrels of crude oil. Price Quotation: Dollars and cents per barrel. Trading Hours: 24 hours a day, Sunday-Friday, with a 60-minute break each day. Tick Size: $0.01 per barrel, equivalent to a $10.00 move per contract. Product Code: CL Micro Crude Oil Futures (MCL): Contract Size: Each contract represents 100 barrels of crude oil, 1/10th the size of the standard contract. Price Quotation: Dollars and cents per barrel. Trading Hours: Mirrors the standard CL futures for seamless market access. Tick Size: $0.01 per barrel, equivalent to a $1.00 move per contract. Product Code: MCL Options on Crude Oil Futures : Options on WTI Crude Oil Futures offer traders the ability to hedge price risk or speculate on the price movements. These options provide the flexibility of exercising into futures positions upon expiration. Constructing a Butterfly Spread The essence of a Butterfly Spread lies in its construction: It involves buying one in-the-money (ITM) option, selling two at-the-money (ATM) options, and buying one out-of-the-money (OTM) option. For CL WTI Crude Oil Futures Options, this could translate into buying an ITM call or put, selling two ATM calls or puts, and buying an OTM call or put, all with the same expiration date. The goal is to profit from the premium decay of the ATM options faster than the ITM and OTM options, especially as the futures price gravitates towards the middle strike price. Using call options would typically generate positive delta making the strategy slightly bullish. Using put options would typically generate negative delta making the strategy slightly bearish. Selection of Strike Prices: Identify suitable ITM, ATM, and OTM strike prices based on current crude oil futures prices and expected market movement. (The below chart example uses Support and Resistance UFO price levels to determine the optimal Strike Selection.) Determine Expiration: Choose an expiration date that balances time decay with your market outlook. Manage Premiums: The premiums paid and received for these options should result in a net debit, establishing your maximum risk. Advantages and Risks Advantages: Defined Risk: The maximum potential loss is known at the trade's outset, limited to the net debit of establishing the spread. Profit Potential: Profits are maximized if the futures price is at the middle strike at expiration. Flexibility: Suitable for various market conditions, especially in a range-bound market. Risks: Limited Profit: The strategy caps the maximum profit, which is achieved under very specific conditions. Commission Costs: Multiple legs mean higher transaction costs, which can erode profits. Complexity: Requires careful planning and monitoring, making it less suitable for novice traders. The construction of a Butterfly Spread in the context of CL WTI Crude Oil Futures Options highlights the strategic depth required to navigate the volatile energy market. Meanwhile, understanding its advantages and inherent risks equips traders with the knowledge to apply this strategy effectively, balancing the potential for profit against the complexity and costs involved. Market Scenarios and Butterfly Spread Performance The performance of a Butterfly Spread in CL WTI Crude Oil Futures Options is highly contingent on market stability and slight fluctuations. Given crude oil's propensity for volatility, identifying periods of consolidation or mild trend is crucial for this strategy's success. Neutral Market Conditions: Ideal for a Butterfly Spread, where prices oscillate within a narrow range around the ATM strike price. Volatility Impact: Sudden spikes or drops in crude oil prices can move the market away from the strategy's profitable zone, reducing its effectiveness. Understanding these scenarios helps in planning entry and exit strategies, aligning them with expected market movements and historical price behavior within the crude oil market. Executing the Strategy Executing a Butterfly Spread involves precise timing and adherence to a pre-defined risk management plan. The entry point is critical, often timed with expected market stagnation or minor fluctuations. Entry Criteria: Initiate the spread when volatility is expected to decrease, or ahead of market events predicted to have a muted impact. Adjustments: If the market moves unfavorably, adjustments can be made, such as rolling out the spread to a further expiration or adjusting strike prices. Exit Strategy: The ideal exit is at expiration, with the futures price at the ATM option's strike. However, taking early profits or cutting losses based on predefined criteria can optimize outcomes. Case Study: Applying Butterfly Spread to Crude Oil Market Let's explore a hypothetical scenario where a trader employs a Butterfly Spread in anticipation of a stable WTI Crude Oil market. The futures are trading at $80.63 per barrel. The trader expects the price to move down slowly due to mixed market signals even though key support and resistance (UFOs) price levels would indicate a potential fall. As seen on the below screenshot, we are using the CME Group Options Calculator in order to generate fair value prices and Greeks for any options on futures contracts. Underlying Asset: WTI Crude Oil Futures or Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures (Symbol: CL1! or MCL1!) Strategy Setup: Buy 1 ITM put option with a strike price of $82.5 (Cost: $3.00 per barrel) Sell 2 ATM put options with a strike price of $78 (Credit: $0.92 per barrel each) Buy 1 OTM put option with a strike price of $73.5 (Cost: $0.24 per barrel) Net Debit: $1.40 per barrel ($3.00 - $0.92 - $0.92 + $0.24) Maximum Profit: Achieved if crude oil prices are at $78 at expiration. Maximum Risk: Limited to the net debit of $1.40 per barrel. Over the following days/weeks, crude oil prices could fluctuate mildly due to competing factors in the market but ultimately close at $78 at the options' expiration. The trader's maximum profit scenario is realized, demonstrating the strategy's effectiveness in a stable market. Risk Management Considerations Executing a Butterfly Spread or any options strategy without a robust risk management plan is perilous. The following considerations are essential for traders: Use of Stop Loss Orders: To mitigate losses in unexpected market moves. Hedging: Employing alternative positions to protect against adverse price movements. Defined Risk Exposure: Always know the maximum potential loss before entering any trade. Market Analysis: Continuous monitoring and analysis of the crude oil market for signs that may necessitate strategy adjustment. Conclusion The Butterfly Spread is a nuanced strategy that, when applied carefully, can offer traders of CL WTI Crude Oil Futures Options a means to capitalize on relatively slow market moves. While the potential for profit is capped, so is the risk, making it an attractive option for those with a precise market outlook. It exemplifies the strategic depth available to options traders, allowing for profit in less volatile market conditions. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by traddictiv
A Renko Trading Strategy with Multiple IndicatorsThis study will walk through several concepts in analyzing crude oil. The primary chart type will be a Renko chart with the block size (ticks) set to 25 (0.25 in TV) and with a timeframe set to 15 minutes. The significance of timeframe is that in TV, it will take this amount of time for the price to maintain a full block change (25 cents) in order for it to be ‘printed’. In times of high volatility, a 15-minute window can allow for more than one block to print at the same time. While this may be a disadvantage in trading CL futures either day or swing trading, it helps filter out noise in the type of trading I do. The basic strategy I’m wanting to establish using this setup is the buying of options, either puts or calls, that are as near to the market as possible and to limit risk to a % of the value of the purchase price of the option. So, for example, if I pay $2,500.00 USD for a CLQ24 85 Call, I will limit my loss to 10% of that price should the market go against what I had expected. The chart setups and scenarios in this study will be based on Renko charts along with various indicators that will be discussed (for the most part individually). A view of 2024 based on the Renko setup. I will start with this basic view that has the Renko chart configured as outlined above with two linear regression drawings manually drawn on it. There is an indicator for LR which will follow each block change and change accordingly based on the lookback configuration. With the drawing tool, you can start and end the LR based on your strategy. In mine, I want to base the LR on price from a major low to a major high and then adjust based on if a new high or low is obtained. In this chart, I picked the low as that of late December (the first long black arrow). As an exercise, you can hit the new highs from this point to see how the LR adjusted and how future price flowed within it. There are two LR drawings on this chart; one with an upper and lower deviation set to 2/-2 and the second with a upper and lower deviation set to 1/-1 (these are the ones with dots for a boundary). In this specific chart, I’ve started with the latest high to be that on 01-March and with the LRs both extended to the right, you can see the price movement against these LR into the future. As price broke through the top of the LR recently, a new high was put in on 24-March and the adjustment of the LR will be shown next. With this new high confirmed, the LRs are both move to end at this high while keeping the original starting point the same. In this view, price pulled back to the top of the LR 1std and close here. With the LR extended, you can see where the mean is and a potential price target if just considering the LR itself. An expanded view of above: Next, I’ll introduce the DEMA and simple MA on the chart. There are two DEMAs added to the chart with one set to a period of 12 and one set to a period of 20. The significance of the two is that when the 12 (black on this chart) is above the 20 (red on this chart), then the trend is bullish and when the opposite, the trend is bearish. I use these two more for confirmation than for timing. If you study these, you’ll see that they lag for the most part but there are key times that they will provide insight to the direction of a market during times of consolidation. The next two indicators that I’ll introduce are the Stochastic and Directional Movement Index (DMI with the ADX). The experience of using these indicators on a Renko chart is like that on a candle chart except that the period is not for time but the number of bars that have been printed or committed. There are two Stochs used (5,3,3 and 25,3,3). The intent of the 5,3,3 is to provide a fast-moving change in momentum while the 25,3,3 is designed to provide insight to the momentum of the longer trend. Insight as to timing the entry and exit of trades may be possible with an in-depth understanding of the crossover of the 25,3,3 between the %k and the %d. The DMI can be used like it is against a candle chart but with settings at 5,5. This provides a faster moving indicator and, with some study, can determine the importance of the interactions between the 3 lines. There is one key aspect of this indicator with the Renko that works similar to the candle and that is of identifying pending consolidation of the market. In a traditional setup of the DMI on a candle chart, the settings are 14,14 and the line of 20 in the indicator is traditionally the line of strength. Meaning that when the ADX falling at or below the 20 line, then the trends are weak and the market is entering consolidation. During this time, the guidance from various sources is to look for patterns on the market and signs of a breakout. For the Renko charts, the are to watch for trend strength and consolidation is between the 35 and 20 area based on the analysis I’ve done. On the following chart, I’ve highlighted some of these areas of consolidation. Additionally, there is a notion of a high-swap of the +/-Dis which is when price has started moving strongly in one direction and then pivots to change direction and build into a strong trend from this. While in hindsight these look compelling, they can be difficult to trade in real-time, it’s difficult to differentiate between a high-swap and a future degradation of the trend that leads to consolidation. I think that the more reliable setup is finding the longer points of consolidation and prepare to trade in the breakout direction. As you can see on the close Friday, price has moved off of a new recent high and could now be trending down into a period of consolidation (if one were to use just the combination of the DMI and ADX). If you’ve not read “Secrets of a Pivot Boss” by Franklin O. Ochoa, I would encourage you to do so as it has many extremely valuable and innovative ideas in trading off volume, value, and pivots. The following discussions will be based on concepts from this book. The first covered will be that of volume area. I will not dig into the specifics of this but to just show one of the many indicators available in TradingView for these concepts. The volume indicators will work with Renko charts and the specific one I’m using allows me to set the increment of volume based on rows or ticks. I’ve chosen ticks and set the number to 5. With a 25 tick Renko chart, this will allow for a granularity of 5 rows per block for displaying the volume profile. In the chart below, I’ve highlighted a concept outlined in the book of the volume area that is extended out to the next trading day and is what forms the basis for 2-day volume area analysis. There are 6 scenarios that go with this analysis and the pink channels on the chart are intended to enable this view. The volume profile I’ve picked in the indicator is for the week so the analysis I do is for the week and not daily. One of the key setups from the book is an ‘inside day’ which you can see at the black arrow. An inside day is a day to watch for breakout (in this case it would be an inside week) and, after support was found, the price went higher. The last set of indicators that I’ll cover is the Camarilla Pivots. These too are covered in depth in the book referenced above as well as a wealth of details on the web. These pivots do not work on Renko charts so I will create a candle chart with an 8hr setting and then set up the monthly and yearly pivots on it. From this chart, I’ll copy key lines over to the Renko chart. This first chart is a view of the 25 tick, 15 minute chart going back to the beginning of 2024. I’ve labeled some of the key lines on this chart for both the year 2024 and the month of March. This is zoomed into the month of March. I believe a key concept that makes these pivots on the Renko with the timeframe powerful is the ability to see the tests that happen around the various pivots for both support and resistance. There is an entire trading strategy that is outlined in the book referenced above. The current price action seems to imply that price should come back to either the March R3 or the 2024 R3 (which is also the top of the value area for 2023). If price action does come back to these lines, careful attention should be paid to how support plays out and if a buying or selling opportunity arises from it. Next, I’ll provide a view with all of the reviewed items in one view. I’m standing aside on trading this for now until the current price action plays out and a cleaning view of potential trade comes into focus. Some observations considering what’s been discussed individually in this study: The DEMA is currently swapped to the bearish trend. The -DI is over the +DI which is a bearish trend. However, The ADX has been dropping to the 35 line but has not dropped in the 35 to 20 range to indicate a consolidation phase. The Stoch has not completely bottomed out long term and could see more downward movement. While price is at the top of the 1std of the LR, it could drop further. A drop and hold of the 2024 R3, March R3, top of the 2023 volume area, and the median of the current LR (all would be within proximity of each other) could be a strong buy setup. A break below these lines with an ensuing test from the bottom could be a strong sell setup. The relationship of the past two weeks’ volume area is bullish.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by mxb1961
Breakout for crude oil in focusCrude oil has been grinding higher since the December low, but after a 4-week period of choppy trade momentum has turned higher. Whilst $80 has been a tough level to crack in recent week, we suspect a breakout is now on the cards - 200-day MA has provided dynamic support - Falling wedge into 200-day MA - Bullish range expansion out of the falling wedge - RSI (14) curling higher from the neutral zone (50) Prices are teasing the $80 level during a quiet Asian session. Bulls could either look to enter the breakout above $80 alongside rising volume, or seek dips down to the $79 handle / 2023 open price in anticipation of a breakout. The bias remains bullish above the $200-day MA with $84 now in focus
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CityIndex
Crude Oil Price Analysis: Implications of Recent EventsIn the H4 timeframe, US Crude Oil prices started the week with a bearish candle, contrasting with the strong gains seen in the previous week. This bearish sentiment seems to be influenced by multiple factors, including technical indicators such as the 61.8% Fibonacci level and overbought stochastic conditions, particularly around the $81.50 mark. The recent disturbances, including Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and increased drone strikes on Russian oil refineries by Ukraine, have added volatility to the market. Additionally, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's announcement to push into Gaza's Rafah enclave has further fueled concerns. Despite these geopolitical tensions, the decision by OPEC+ members to extend production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day through the second quarter has contributed to worries about a tight global supply. This has acted as a catalyst for Crude Oil prices. Looking ahead, the market is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates. Expectations that the Fed will maintain higher rates for an extended period may dampen economic activity and fuel demand, potentially impacting Crude Oil prices. However, the overall fundamental backdrop remains supportive for bullish traders, suggesting that any corrective pullbacks could be viewed as buying opportunities. In conclusion, while the opening bearish sentiment in US Crude Oil prices raises questions about short-term direction, the broader outlook remains bullish. Investors should remain vigilant for potential buying opportunities amid the prevailing geopolitical tensions and supply concerns. Daily setup:
TVC:USOILShort
by FOREXN1
1
Oil continues to ascend within the upward-sloping channelWest Texas Intermediate crude oil regained a bullish momentum and managed to establish a new high at $81.58, which marks the highest value in over four months. Additionally, RSI, MACD, and Stochastic all moved higher on the daily chart. These developments are positive for oil and bolster a bullish case in the short term and medium term. However, while it is possible that oil might reach $85 per barrel (or perhaps even $90, depending on the global economy, oil supply/demand dynamics, and the situation in the Middle East), we are skeptical about such high price tags as $100 per barrel in the coming months. In our opinion, the United States will continue to ramp up its production against OPEC, which is trying to balance the market by cutting its own production quotas. Furthermore, the declining industrial and manufacturing production in Europe and the United States is likely to continue holding a lid over rising oil prices. Consequently, at the moment, we see very limited upside for oil. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the ADX’s daily chart, which reflects the trend’s momentum. Yellow arrows indicate a temporary decline in momentum ahead of the OPEC’s monthly report and subsequent awakening after the report. Illustration 1.02 The image above shows the daily chart of USOIL and simple support/resistance levels derived from past peaks and troughs. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILLong
by Tradersweekly
2