WTI Oil Aiming for +99$Hello Traders
This week oil price jumped almost +12.5$ from the opening price on Monday and ended in a big green weekly candle.
2 major factors affected Oil prices:
1- OPEC has reduced its production limit.
2- Cold seasons started in Europe and demand for energies such as oil has soared.
Technically:
1- Price has broken a falling wedge pattern.
2- Price has made a big green weekly candle.
3- Also the price has made a local higher high indicating a reversal in trend.
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Team Fortuna
-RC
(Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
Wticrude
Macro and TA is making Oil look ripe for an upward moveMacroeconomic trends with a rough heating season for Europe, the continued war in Ukraine, the internal troubles in Iran, and the most recent OPEC+ meeting makes the macro position for Oil look bullish.
Looking at the charts it looks likely that oil will challenge the downward trend that has persisted recent months and coming two days let us know if it'll begin a bullish upwards trend.
US OIL SHORT IDEAHello Traders!
Hope we are all having a great profitable week.
We are currently seeing on US oil that the market has been very bearish for the past couple of weeks and we have seen a clear bearish order flow consequently.
Having that in mind, we had to spot our supply zone from where we have a strong bearish order block, waiting to see the retracement stop at that point and the new impulsive leg start immediately.
So here it is on our charts and we look to take full profits at the new lower low.
Cheers!!!
Under Cover Trading!
Swing Trading Simplified!
WTI oil - Rumors about production cuts elevate the priceOver the past few days, rumors about the OPEC production cut started circulating in the market, with some suggesting the cut could be between 1 mil. bpd up to 1.5 mil. bpd. Subsequently, the price of WTI oil rallied above 83 USD.
This development comes in spite of OPEC's inability to reach its own production quotas and might temporarily lift the price of oil. However, at this point, we still remain relatively bearish on oil in the long term, with a price target of 70 USD.
Despite that, we will pay close attention to the rhetoric of OPEC members about future (potential) production cuts. If the cartel proceeds with further cuts on the supply side, then it might force us to abandon our price target. We will update our thoughts soon.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI and Stochastic are bullish. MACD is neutral. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL and simple support/resistance levels.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, Stochastic, and MACD are bearish. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
WTI analysis: Will OPEC+ cuts boost crude to $100?OPEC+ has taken a tough stance, slashing output by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) beginning in November 2022, the largest reduction in crude oil production since March 2020.
In addition to production extending the agreement through 2023, oil producers have agreed to hold semiannual rather than monthly meetings.
WTI oil briefly spiked to $87/bbl following the OPEC+ announcement. It then broke through that level in response to disappointing US crude oil inventory data (-1.36 million barrels vs. 2.05 expected) and a strong US ISM Services PMI, which delayed recessionary warning signs following the weak ISM Manufacturing PMI earlier this week.
The move by OPEC+ risks putting renewed pressure on crude oil’s global supply-demand balance in the coming months, potentially resulting in a price floor at pre-OPEC+ meeting levels.
On a technical level, WTI crude and (also Brent) prices are currently testing a key resistance area, defined by the 50-day moving average and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the range between September lows and June highs.
A sharp break above this resistance zone and then the $90/bbl level (September highs) could put additional upward pressure on an extension towards the 50% of the Fibonacci level ($98.6/bbl) and then $100/bbl.
Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
USOIL 3rd OCTOBER 2022 - COMBINATION STRATEGYUSOIL Combination strategy with a Trendline, Unfilled Order (UFO) and Psychological level.
Trend is a movement that shows where the market is moving. The term "trend" in everyday life is often used to express a situation, where something is in vogue or is gaining public attention.
As you know, a trendline is a tool that can be used to recognize the direction of a trend. Therefore, a trendline can serve as both Support (in an uptrend) and Resistance (in a downtrend). Trend line, Its function as a technical tool does not need to be doubted. Besides being able to help identify trends, this tool can also be used to find entry points. In looking for entry points, you can use bounce and breakout opportunities. remember "the trend is your friend". Believe it or not, in forex trading, the trendline is one of the friends that can help you to follow the direction where the market is moving.
This trend movement forms a series of sequential waves with the following levels:
Peak (High/H),
Higher peak (Higher High / HH)
Lower peak (Lower High / LH )
Valley (Low/L)
higher valley (Higher Low / HL )
Lower valley (Lower Low / LL)
By knowing the support and resistance levels, a trader can minimize risks and maximize profits. During a downtrend, a trendline can serve as resistance. But conversely, during an uptrend, the trendline can function as support. In finance market, a psychological level, is a price level in technical analysis that significantly influences the price of the underlying security, commodity or derivative. Usually, the number is something "easy to remember," like a number that is rounded up.
Meanwhile, Unfilled order is a shipment of orders that have not been fulfilled and inventory reported by domestic manufacturing companies. historically it can be seen that the balance between buyers and sellers is broken due to high volatility.
for example in the case of US30 23rd AUGUST 2022
WTI SHORT TERM RECOVERYWTI recovered some of its loses yesterday after expectations of supply slow-down due to the hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. But the continuous straightening of the US dollar and the expectations of continuing slow-down of Chinese economy might decrease the demand of crude oil. This will probably put further pressure on the crude oil price. Bearish traders might take advantage of this scenario by waiting a bit for WTI to reach more favorable levels and enter into positions.
Although technical indicators on the 1H graph show "Buy" signals, on the 4H and the daily graph the indicators are still bearish, with MACD histogram below 0 line and RSI below 50 neutral line. This might indicate that the recovery is temporary and the bearish move has not finished, but just slowed down.
If bearish trend continues the price might test levels of 72 USD, but if the trend makes a more permanent reverse, it might test its previous high at 86 USD.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
USOIL is in possible sell zone!!USOIL 4h Has broken down after creating a head & shoulder on the lower timeframe. Upon new opening, the price has formed a new bearish structure and again has broken down after a liquidity grab as soon as the market opens. Currently, price retesting the previous support as resistance on the local structure and rejecting that can give us another opportunity to sell WTI after our first successful trade as soon as the market opens.
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WTI Oil- Will it drop under 70?In my previous Wti Oil analysis, I draw attention to the possibility of a double top formed above 120 with the neckline at the 92 zone.
Oil has dropped under this support and confirmed this zone as new resistance.
At this moment the price is also under 85 support and the road looks clear for continuation.
The next obvious level of support is around 65 and as long as 85 is intact sell rallies is my strategy.
WTI BEARISH OUTLOOKWTI reached its 8 months low, after the spike in price from the invasion in Ukraine. Investors are afraid that combination of increasing interest rates and high inflation will slow down the economy, from there and the demand for crude oil. The economic slow down of China has also put a down pressure on the oil price.
Technical indicators are also placing WTI into bearish scenario, with MACD under the 0 line and RSI under the 50 neutral line.
If the trend continues, the price might reach levels of 67.5 In opposite scenario, however, the price might test its previous high of 89.5
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
Oil Analysis - updateG'day all, hope you're well.
Well, looks like the EMA theory I mentioned before turned out to be correct. Check out my previous posts for the low down on that if you like. The price fell through the 55 EMA (yellow) and failed to get back above it, or at least hold above it. In theory, the next stop should be the Sasha Grey EMA, or the 200 EMA if you wanna be technical and politically correct. This would make plenty of sense as it would line up with the W pattern's neckline, which happened to be the .618 when measured from the last high before its formation to the next logical low (dotted Fib retracement on the left), which also turns out to be the 0.5 Fib retracement of the overall move if you consider a 5-wave count from the Covid bottom to the peak. A great technical retracement for those of you who go by Gann theory.
That being said, the .618 Fib retracement is still below us at around $50/barrel. Could it actually hit there? Who knows. If this pop ends up being anything similar to the 2008 pop, then yeah, it could. In my shitty opinion, if it does dip that low, I'd bet that it would get bought up pretty quickly. On the weekly chart, it would likely end up looking like a wick, possibly a reversal type candle such as a dragonfly doji or something similar. Point being, I doubt prices would hover around there for too long before greed sets back in.
We'd also have to take into account the WEF's push for green energy, weaning off of fossil fuels, worldwide recession...all that stuff. At the risk of sounding like a conspiracy theorist, it really seems like they're pushing HARD to make their agenda a reality. There's evidence of this worldwide at this point and they have been pretty publically vocal about it. So it could be possible that even if oil prices fall to these levels, fuel prices may remain high as part of their push for a "greener world". Let's leave aside the debate of how EV's can cost more in the long run and be just as or more polluting to the environment. Regardless, these elites see an opportunity for creating a bigger profit margin, more control and more economical/social status division, so I highly doubt they'd ditch all of that and take the moral high ground to improve affordability for peasants like us :)
Well, that's my 2 cents worth.
TL;DR: Price action fell below the yellow 55 EMA and now we're looking to be on top of Sasha Grey at around $64 - $70/barrel. Giggity.
Stay safe all!
USOIL - A Bullish opinion Hello traders in my opinion USOIL is approaching a strong support zone on spotted the weekly time frame via a brearish trendline and a falling support i think that if it bounces back from that zone + the falling support , breaks the trendline and retests we might see a Bullish correctional movement
just an opinion not financial advice
CRUDE OIL WTI : BEARISH POSITIONS BELLOW 88.78BLACKBULL:WTI
Hello folks!!!,
This is my analysis brought to you after deeply analyzing the Curde Oil WTI from a technical, trend and fundamental perspective:
Pivot point : 88.78
Stop loss : 92.28
Take profit : 73.28
Entry Price : 86.40
Risk/Reward Ratio : 1 : 2.32
If this post was useful to you, do not forget to like and comment.❤️
Trade Safely,
Best Regards,
Yasser Tavarez
USOIL - An attempt to support the price failsOn 17th August 2022, we warned that the oil market might be positioning itself for a downtrend correction. Accordingly, we said we would pay close attention to the sloping resistance and a potential breakout above it.
Then, a few days later, the breakout occurred, and the price of USOIL spiked to 97.65 USD. Meanwhile, we abandoned our bearish price targets due to the OPEC considering production cuts. However, we also stated that the retracement (below the sloping resistance) could be utilized as short position re-entry.
Finally, after the OPEC announcement, we said the production cut would have a minimal impact on the market. So today, we would like to update price targets for USOIL. Our new short-term price target is 80 USD, and our long-term price target is 70 USD.
Illustration 1.01
The image above shows the daily chart of USOIL. It also depicts the bullish breakout above the sloping support/resistance and subsequent bearish retracement.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, Stochastic, and MACD are bearish. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows simple support and resistance levels for USOIL. The yellow arrow indicates the most recent bearish breakout.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, Stochastic, and MACD are bearish. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
WTI oil - 80 USD in sight Since our last update on oil, much has not changed. Therefore, we continue to be bearish on USOIL and stick to our short-term price target of 80 USD and a long-term price target of 70 USD. Our views are based on technical and fundamental factors we reiterated throughout 2022.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of USOIL. Additionally, it shows two yellow arrows that indicate natural price retracements toward its 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA (which acted as a correction of the downtrend).
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, Stochastic, and MACD are bearish. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, Stochastic, and MACD are bearish. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
USOIL 23rd SEPTEMBER 2022Oil prices slipped below the US$85 per barrel level after the US central bank, the Fed, announced an interest rate hike.
U.S. oil demand over the past four weeks fell to 8.5 million barrels per day (bpd), the lowest since February, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). On the other hand, there was a 1.1 million barrel increase in crude oil stocks last week.
The European Union is considering restrictions on Russian oil prices, as well as on high-tech exports to Russia, as well as sanctions in the event of an escalation of Moscow's war in Ukraine.
On the other hand, China's crude oil demand is also still pressured by tight restrictions due to Covid-19.
OPEC crude oil exports have been fairly stable, since the high increase in demand earlier this month for an early winter contract.
When Russia refuses to 'restrictions on Russian oil prices', and OPEC starts to 'reduce oil exports', that's we can see prices will tend to be bullish.