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USOil | New perspective for the week | Follow-up detail3 days into the EU ban on Russian seaborne crude imports, oil producers in Russia are going against all expectations to ramp up production in recent weeks. With the Russian seaborne crude oil import ban around the corner, a potential OPEC+ output cut on the table, and ongoing discussions about capping Russian oil & gas prices, we looked at the charts from a technical perspective in this video to decipher how the recent developments will affect price movement in the coming week(s). Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, and risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
FX:USOILSPOT
by darcsherry
1
New lows, volatility about to continue, and a potential bounceIn the past few days, USOIL constituted a new low below 73$, marking a 43% decline from its peak a few months earlier. This move came amid our bearish expectations for oil and forecast for lower prices. We continue to stick to this call altogether with our price target at 70$, which was updated recently to a short-term price target (from medium-term). Our views are based on technical and fundamental factors described below and in previous articles. Illustration 1.01 The daily chart of USOIL shows the price decline between 8th March 2022 and today. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish breakout below the previous low and subsequent bullish retracement. To further support our bearish thesis, we would like to see the price break again below 73.62$ and hold there. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bearish Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of USOIL and simple support/resistance levels + two simple moving averages. At the moment, the price deviated too far from its 20-day and 50-day SMAs, which is often followed by the price retracement toward a mean; currently, these SMAs act as important resistance levels. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradersweekly
27
USOIL 5th DECEMBER 2022Organization of Petroleum Exporters and its Allies (OPEC+) maintained production cuts, keeping production at 2 million barrels per day (bpd) from November to 2023. Oil prices weakened as China's zero-covid policy weighed on demand. However, after the regulation was relaxed in a number of cities including Beijing and Shanghai, oil prices slowly moved up. WTI and Brent oil are significantly bullish, this is partly driven by the easing of China's covid-19 lockdown. Technically, oil prices are still in a bearish trend, but bullish is possible in the next few days until the resistance area. recommendation to sell in the resistance area marked by the red area. Prices can go higher, pay attention to several points that can make oil prices tend to be bullish: opec policy, easing lockdown in china, and weakening USD.
TVC:USOIL
by DNP-FX
2
USOil | New perspective for the week | Follow-up detailA record number of new coronavirus cases in China (the world's highest importer of crude oil) coupled with the inability of the EU to agree on a price cap for Russian oil Crude prices resulted in a plunge in price as the price fell for a third straight week. From a technical standpoint, it is obvious that price action has been caught within a channel ($93.50 and $87.00) in the last couple of months to emphasize the indecision in the market. However, it is worth noting that the lower timeframes reveal that price action has continued to find lower lows and lower highs in the last 3 weeks to signal a possible bearish continuation in the new week but we can not ignore the possibility of a breakout of the bearish trendline to incite a reversal structure. Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, and risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
FX:USOILSPOT
by darcsherry
How to profit from Crude Oil - LONG (and short) The USA is in a political battle over the price of oil with OPEC and right now they are winning, but how low can they go? Not too much lower actually, they need to start buying again to ensure their strategic reserves remain useful and not at risk of dropping below the requried levels to support the country in times of emergency. OPEC $64 - To ensure OPEC break even on oil product, they will control the market above SPR $72 - To replenish the reserves the USA is a buyer at $67 - $72 a barrel, not too far from where we are now EU $70 - The EU are in talks to ensure Russian oil cannot be sold above $70 Pin Bar $77 - We have a bin bar rejection to support the market move North again Fib 78.6% - We've rejected this level 7 times on the weekly and daily chart Target 1 - We've already tested and profited from this move upto $82 and we'll be doing that again Target 2 - Fib 61.8% at 88 will be our next target Target 3 - Fib 50% at 92 will be our final target Short - If we break down past 77, we'll be a buyer just below at the SPR support levels.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDELong
by CBMotivation
2
USOIL Long Strategy / Flip.What has really happened? Drawing from reserves? Pushing the price cap narrative? They are all temporary relives, just like a plaster/bondage on a wound. Chinese demand will pick up and war continues, and latest developments around south korea... I believe the Oil Rally is far from over, and the longer the spring is tried to be controlled/held, the harder it will be released back up. With OPEC+ Set to meet this week, and the possibility of reduction of production, intimation of South Korea, WTI prices will also be effected indirectly for sure. I believe the strategy is pretty forward with 3 TP targets on long, and should we cut our losses and move short before longing again, 1 TP for short. TVC:USOIL
TVC:USOILLong
by TheHopinionist
BIG UPDATES PART 1 (CHAPTRE 3)We're back with breaking news Expecting oil retracement to the 85$ zone before a "ready to launch phase" Big pockets on the edge and i might sound crazy but we can touch the +100$ zone in a very short time of a period. Risk of your own and i wont recommend any TP or SL in this one If you lose don't blame me if you win don't thank me As always lose to win and risk to gain. that's the moto. The full chapter: 1) Sell "Done" 2) Buy "We are Here" 3) Sell
FX:USOILLong
by UnknownUnicorn2830187
3
Oil buyers step in at $72/bbl: Is the downside limited?The oil market has seen a lot of activity, with recent developments mostly easing worries about market tightness. In China, Covid-related restrictions have been reinstalled in major cities, triggering rare protests and consequently reducing outlook for oil consumption, in striking contrast to perceived moves to reopen the economy at the beginning of November. On the supply side, reports that the United States granted Chevron Corp permission to restart oil production in Venezuela, as well as Iraq's statement that it will add 1 million to 1.5 million barrels per day of oil export capacity by 2025, weighed on oil prices. The oil future curve is no longer in a backwardation state. The price premium that spot WTI held over its future contracts ( 3A1! ; 4A1! ; 5A1! ) has been fully wiped away by the most recent leg of oil depreciation. In essence, the spot price of oil is currently trading at par compared to its 6-month future delivery, indicating that the market is not currently concerned about prompt supply. This condition has not been observed since January 2021, and it may be prudent to be wary of surprises at this time. Bad news is priced, but positive catalysts are still to come? With most bad news already priced in by the market, it may take something new to stop oil prices from falling. In October, the US White House signalled that it intends to repurchase crude to replenish its SPR stocks when WTI prices are at or below about $65/bbl and $72/bbl. Consequently, this area could present a strong price support and thus limit the downside relative to current market prices. Additionally, supply-side risks have not completely disappeared. The G7 has postponed a price ceiling on Russian oil, but Russia said that it may retaliate, restricting supply, if the G7 applies a price cap. In view of recent market developments, OPEC+ could also reinforce its very restrictive supply strategy on Sunday, December 4th. Dip buying to resume at $72? Technically speaking, oil has revised its lows for 2022 and is currently experiencing a negative year-to-date performance. The most recent wave of decline was dramatic, bringing the daily RSI close to oversold territory. In the past, massive selloffs in oil prices, with the daily RSI in oversold territory, produced some near-term price recovery. WTI prices are currently 14% and 30% below their respective 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which appears overly pessimistic considering the persistence of upside risks. Given how sharp the recent downward trend was and the fact that a positive catalyst might happen soon, dip buying may start to come back at these levels.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDE
by Capitalcom
WTI BEARISH OUTLOOKCrude Oil benchmark WTI broke its previous established support at 81.75 and continued its downtrend through Wednesday after G7 talk for implementing a price cap on Russian supply. The mark cap of 65-70 USD per barrel was higher than the market expected, which elevate some of the fears of supply distribution of the oil. Another positive news for the global oil supply is that Chervon Corp. might expand operations in Venezuela. Both MACD and RSI technical indicators are confirming the downtrend with MACD histogram below the 0 line and RSI below the 50 neutral line. If the trend continues the price might try to reach levels of 73.65 or even 70.47 In the opposite scenario, the price might revert and test its resistance at 81.75 Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by legacyFXofficial
$70 crude coming? A major (bearish) development in oilThe technicals in crude continue to break down as the buyers stand aside – the 26 Sept swing low looks close to being taken out at $76.61 and a break here sees $65 come into play – it does feel like these lows will be tested, so a short bias is preferred. The fact we see crude down 4% when copper is up 1% speaks to the EU price caps as the driver, over just a China Covid and an economic/demand story. I think it's important to look at the crude futures curve – On TradingView I have shown the difference between the continuous front month contract and August 2023 contracts (code CL1! -NYMEX: CLQ2023) – this is now eyeing inversion, having been as high as $11. 90 in October. This is a big development in the crude complex as it removes a key reason for funds/producers to hold longs for the roll down into the next contract on expiry. What else has caused the moves on the day? • Poor liquidity – everyone watching Ger vs JAP - obviously many market ballers are off now for US Thanksgiving • EU price caps on Russian exports came in a $65 to $70, perhaps higher than consensus – not that Russia will comply and work with countries that apply such caps – but I guess the view is given the caps are higher, and Russia is selling crude at discounts of c.$20 p/b, that these caps won't affect Russia supply • The DoE Weekly Inventory data showed a 3.7m drawer in crude inventories, however, the market caught onto a 3.06m build in gasoline inventories (most since July), while distillates rose by 1.72m. I always find with the inventory report the market will see what it wants to see, but on today’s report it’s the gasoline numbers that have won out • China Covid restrictions – obviously still highly fluid but it is influential on the demand side of crude’s driver – traders seeing new mobility controls in the city of Zhengzhou and PCR testing – we watch Beijing and Shanghai as always given the record case count sweeping the country. We gear up to the next OPEC meeting on 4 Dec, which could even more focus if price breaks $70 – we have our eyes on US payrolls then but the OPEC meeting could drive some solid cross-asset vol.
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDEShort
by Pepperstone
WTI Crude Oil, Weekly (log), The 2008 AnalogyThe actual USOIL weekly chart is confusingly similar to the 2008 daily chart. By analogy, the oil price should go south even to twenty-something dollars. The current economic situation confirms it, as the leading economic indicator (LEI) announces a recession in the near future. Also, moving average analysis confirms it. I matched the closest smoothing moving average (53), which was support after by candle closes (two taps) a year ago. And now, the same moving average was a strong resistance also with two taps by candle closes/opens.
TVC:USOILShort
by MichaelFX_ICT
Observing this setup for the following 6-8 monthsThe winter is coming and global tensions are still rising, the war in eastern europe is not even yet in the phase where both parties are willing to sit down. It could be a long and bloody winter for Europe. I believe oil futures have been going down based on recession fears, but with signs that China will re-open I believe this will be balanced out. I believe that we're still 2-3 winters away from a recession which could bring the oil price down.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by Owcheew8
USOIL - Deteriorating outlook On 7th November 2022, USOIL broke above the short-term resistance at 93.61$ and peaked at 93.73$. However, a few hours later, the breakout became invalidated, and the price started to drift lower. For the subsequent ten trading sessions, the price kept declining approximately 16% to a low of 77.24$ on the last Friday; before closing at 80.14$ that same day. In April 2021, we stated the oil market peaked, and the price was headed to 90$ in the long term, which was hit four months later. In addition to that, we provided several more short-term and medium-term price targets until the volatility started to pick up in late summer. Because of this elevated volatility, we announced that we would abstain from setting more price targets, except for a long-term one at 70$. Now, with the recession in full progress and the deteriorating outlook for the oil market, we are starting to reconsider the timestamp on our price target. We are considering updating the price target to medium-term (and potentially short-term after a while) depending on more oil market developments. With that being said, we will pay close attention to the rhetoric of the U.S. administration and the possibility of more SPR releases, which would lead to lower oil prices. Additionally, we will monitor the narrative of OPEC and other energy institutions for more oil market data that could suggest lesser oil demand and oil demand growth going forward. Technical analysis - daily time frame MACD broke below 0 points, which is very bearish. RSI and Stochastic are also bearish. DM+ and DM- performed a bearish crossover. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Although the trend remains weak, Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the daily chart of USOIL and simple support/resistance levels. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI is bearish. Stochastic and MACD are neutral. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is neutral. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradersweekly
7