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Recession is poised to weigh on the oil demand and higher pricesSince our previous idea, USOIL broke above 80$ and halted its rise slightly below the 50-day SMA. After that, it faltered to 79$ handle where it currently trades. Meanwhile, we noticed bullish calls emerging all over the place. However, while we allow for the possibility of a further price increase, we do not think it will be as dramatic as many people forecast. At this point, we are very skeptical about the narrative claiming a retest of 100$ and continuation of the rally beyond this price level. That is because economic activity shows a significant decline in 2022. Furthermore, as if it was not enough, economic activity is poised to slump even more in 2023, with signs of a recession on the horizon. As a result, we expect the economic slowdown to weigh heavily on the oil demand. It would not surprise us to see the U.S. administration put more pressure on oil producers, prompting them to pump more oil out of the ground, especially if the prices continue to climb higher. In turn, that could offset some price increases and help to balance the market. Therefore, we are cautious and pay close attention to market developments. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL and two simple moving averages. The yellow arrow indicates the retracement toward the 50-day SMA, which often coincides with a strong downtrend correction. In this case, the price failed to fully retrace and break above the 50-day SMA, which may hint at signs of exhaustion for the rally. Therefore, we raise our level of cautiousness. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of USOIL and simple support/resistance levels. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOIL
by Tradersweekly
20
Recession concerns and a stronger USD sends WTI back below $80WTI suffered its worst day in 30 yesterday, with a combination of a stronger US dollar, recession concerns and weaker natural gas prices all playing their part for a bearish session. A bearish outside day formed which markets a double top around $81.20, daily volume was above average (and its highest in 14 days) which adds weigh to the bearish reversal candle. Also note that previously the market has reversed lower around the 100-day EMA, yet here it is trying to turn lower around the 50-day EMA (which itself is below the 100-day EMA). A bearish divergence also formed on RSI ahead of the double top, therefore the bias is for another dip lower. A break of the September low assumes bearish continuation, and next support resides around 72.50 – 73.40. In light of seeking to ‘remain nimble’, we prefer to stick to intraday timeframes in line with the daily bias. Commitment of traders (managed funds) We can see that net-long exposure has been ticking higher on WTI for managed funds, but this is due to shorts being covered and not new longs being initiated in recent weeks. Given the negative sentiment then it’s plausible to suspect some of those bears will now be returning. But if or when we see gross longs increase and gross shorts decrease, we would be more confident in calling a bottom in oil. We’re just not there yet.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by CityIndex
Leading Indicators - PPI (PPIACO) vs. Unemployment (UNRATE) I wanted to highlight how the peak (downward move) in the Producer Price Index (PPIACO) typically corresponds with the trough (upward move) in the Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) (inverse correlation), as a period of Recession takes hold on the economy, & the financial markets. I also wanted to compare the above correlation with cycle tops in WTI Crude Oil (WTISPLC) , & also with respect to the OECD Leading Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM) — as this helps to pinpoint some of the historic baseline(s) for predicting the peak &/or trough in the business vs. market (financial) cycles. Here is the key for the attached chart(s): Top Chart Black Line (Unemployment Rate - UNRATE): *Black Vertical Dotted Line* = Recession Timing Trough Blue Line (Producer Price Index - PPIACO): *Blue Vertical Dotted Line* = Recession Timing Peak Orange Line (WTI Spot Crude - WTISPLC): *Orange Vertical Dotted Line* = Recession Timing Peak Red Shaded Areas (Recession): Indicator via @chrism665 Bottom Chart OECD Leading Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM): *Black Dashed Line* = Pre-Recession Indicator Peak Green Horizontal Dotted Line = Expansion Baseline (100) Orange Horizontal Dotted Line = Current Reading (98.62) Red Horizontal Dotted Line = Danger Zone (<97) Red Shaded Areas (Recession): Indicator via @chrism665 Looking at the larger picture of both charts, you can see that typically in previous periods of Recession you would see this flow of the signals (first to peak/trough, last to peak/trough): Peak - OECD Leading Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM) Trough - Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) *Peak - Producer Price Index (PPIACO)* *Peak - WTI Spot Crude (WTISPLC)* *Note* - As you can see PPIACO & WTISPLC are very closely correlated as demand peaks out, you then see a shift downward in WTISPLC as this is a signal of the topping of economic growth. Now let's dive close-up into each time period of recession, as we can see some linkages/similarities in the 1991, 2001, & 2009 recessions vs. the what is (likely) a 23' recession, depending how the economic , markets , & financial data plays out this upcoming year — potentially into 24'. 1991 Recession Timeline Peak - OECD Leading Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM): July 1987 Trough - Unemployment Rate (UNRATE): Mar. 1989 Peak - Producer Price Index (PPIACO): Oct. 1990 Peak - WTI Spot Crude (WTISPLC): Nov. 1990 2001 Recession Timeline Peak - OECD Leading Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM): Jan. 2000 Trough - Unemployment Rate (UNRATE): Apr. 2000 Peak - WTI Spot Crude (WTISPLC): Nov. 2000 Peak - Producer Price Index (PPIACO): Jan. 2001 2009 Recession Timeline Trough - Unemployment Rate (UNRATE): May 2007 Peak - OECD Leading Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM): June 2007 Peak - WTI Spot Crude (WTISPLC): June 2008 Peak - Producer Price Index (PPIACO): July 2008 2023(24) Recession Estimated? Peak - OECD Leading Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM): May 2021 Peak - Producer Price Index (PPIACO): June 2022 Peak - WTI Spot Crude (WTISPLC): June 2022 Trough - Unemployment Rate (UNRATE): Sept. 2022 What do you think about this macro analysis? Have we potentially been in a recession in 22' — or are we moving closer to higher unemployment (UNRATE) in 23' as the macro/market conditions worsen, & the Federal Reserve's tighter monetary conditions (liquidity & credit) take their toll on the economy? Let me know what you think in the comments below! 👇🏼
FRED:UNRATEShort
by kylemusserco
USOil | New perspective for the week | Follow-up detailThis is a follow-up video to my previous analysis where we made over 1,000 pips in profit (see link below for reference purposes). Crude oil prices witnessed significant gains to close last week's trading session with approximately 8% growth as Moscow said it may cut oil production to offset price caps on Russian crude imposed by the G7 nations and the European Union. In the coming week, the chances of subdued trading activities are very likely and this might not be unconnected to the hangover of the holidays thereby reducing the liquidity in the market. In this video, we took a look at the chart from a technical standpoint where the $80 level will be serving as a major determinant of price movement for the new week. Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
FX:USOILSPOT
by darcsherry
USOIL 70The chart shows the downtrend. After breaking for the second time the support of 78, it will test 74. We will see if it bounces towards 85 or we go to 70 Technical analysis: daily time frame The RSI is bearish . DISCLAIMER: This review is not intended to encourage the buying or selling of any particular security. Furthermore, it should not be the basis of any trading action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly recommended before entering into a trade. TVC:USOIL
FX:USOILShort
by UnknownUnicorn9051525
WTI Crude oil : Last chance to buy before new ATH? 18.05Inflation, inflation, inflation. In China, 15/16 districts have zero Covid cases and all restrictions are set to be cancelled by June. Globally, the disease is under control - Pretty much insuring a very busy summer for travel. So fundamentally - Crude oil has plenty of room to rise in the short-term and mid-term. When we look at the technicals we see : 1) Clear breakout and retest above triangle consolidation which led to strong bullish movement and bull trend ongoing now. 2) Clear close above key support/resistance zone of 108-109. 3) Probable immediate term target is resistance zone of 112.90 to 114.80. 4) A break above 114.80 could be strong confirmation for rally back to previous high and above. 5) Range trading between 108 to 114.80 is also very possible. Bottom line - Good chance for strong rally, downside to 108 is possible. A close below 108 would be bearish in the immediate term. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thank you so much for reading! If you found my idea useful, please like and follow! It would mean a lot. Don't hesitate to comment/ask me anything - I promise to respond to each and every one. I am not a financial advisor and encourage you to do your own research and be cautious when trading. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by Exactus
16
$USOil - HamonicsPresenting this $USOil short that may in place, if the price stays under $80. Gartley is now complete and a Barracuda is currently in play - taking the price down to just under $70. However on a weekly timeframe, we have the perfect AB (62 to 129) and CD (70 to 137) in place where the C point retracement was 0.886. So whiel the daily timeframe seems to show some retracement, the weekly timeframe is very bullish. But $USoil has a mind of it's own so stay careful, operate with caution.
FX:USOIL
by VishalShah9
WTI or USOIL (XTIUSD): BUY analysisWe can see WTI price jumped up as our prognosis here: Now, what will be happen? Price tested upper level on the chart and it will not stop here or it will continue its nonstop movement. Hereby, WTI confirms own strenght. This is very gratifying occasion for us, because we love WTI trading. So, today WTI broke up trend channel to upward. You will see on the chart. We need draw new channel for further explanation. OIL was moving between blue-green channel and it is entering to red trend channel. I marked these channels on the chart. It tries to create a new channel by choosing the correct entry point. What is next level? I think that, WTI will continue own movement until it reachs to 82.35. Because, this point is keypoint and strong level also. On the technical side, this is non-breaking level. But we think that this barrier can be broken, taking into account the volatility of the oil price (of course, if there is no strong fundamental or strategic news). You can open a BUY operation by setting a stop loss. It is possible to set 82.30-82.35 as a target. Let's trade and see what will happen in the coming days.
TVC:USOILLong
by Forexcues
WTI (CRUDE OIL) shortterm forecastHi dear traders. WTI (Crude OIL) created nice trend channel started from 73.37. Upper border of the channel is 75.60. Although, oil prices is moving between these prices from 16 December, as soon as it will jump to 77.55 level. This is my private opinion and this is good opportunity for buyers. Signal characteristics: WTI will move down firstly, then possibly impulse here. Small impulse will reach to 76.29. Then will come retracement. It will retest 75.80-76.00 secondly. As a resut, second impulse will take us to target. Of course, we need entry, take profit and stop loss levesl for signal: ENTRY: 75.62 TP 77.50 SL 74.25 Signal can reach our target during this week. Do not forget to put Stop Loss because trading without SL is gambling only. This will be non-professionalism. Good luck and follow us ))
TVC:USOILLong
by Forexcues
USOUSD short … for the week of 19 Dec 2022US Oil (WTI crude) has been steadily making its way to the downside since the past 6 months. This has been a clean downtrend, respecting previous structure for the most part and I do not see any reason why this would change. I am looking for a pullback either to the minor level in the 77.60 area or even to the major level in the 82.00 area. If some bearish price action (on a lower time frame) becomes evident, such an event would provide a good location to join the down trend that is likely to follow. Targets are located at supports at 71.50 and then at 66.50 regions. Always use sound money and risk management and stay patient in all your trades. If you like my analysis, please give it a “thumbs up” and follow me to get even more awesome content. What do you think about this trade idea? Please comment and share your thoughts!!
EIGHTCAP:USOUSDShort
by Trading_Vista
USOIl Crude Oil important Support LevelWTI Crude Oil is at a key support level now and i don`t think we have seen the last of it. OPEC+ unexpectedly decided to cut output in October by 100,000 barrels a day. It`s not much for now, but they will continue cutting the supply until they will get the oil to $90. I`m looking for a bounce to the $85 - $92 area before heading to $62 by the end of next year, when i expect the beginning of an electric revolution worldwide. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
TVC:USOILLong
by TopgOptions
2
70$ nearly hit, reconsideration of thoughts, and retracementFor several months, we provided price rankings for USOIL, most of which were fulfilled already. The only price target we kept was 70$ per barrel, which was nearly hit last Friday when the price stopped at 70.10$ (just 0.13% away from the price target). With the price level nearly hit, it is time for us to step away from the market and reconsider the situation. In our previous idea, we outlined how the price deviated too far from its moving averages (20-day SMA and 50-day SMA) and might be setting itself for the price retracement to the upside. After hitting a new low, that became the case for USOIL, with the price rising to 74.30$. At the moment, we do not expect a primary trend reversal from bearish to bullish. However, we want to stay on the sidelines and avoid setting new price targets until the picture gets clearer. Until then, we will maintain a neutral position. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL. Yellow arrows indicate a new low at 70.10$ and retracement toward 20-day SMA in progress. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bearish (but showing signs of exhaustion) Weekly time frame = Bearish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOIL
by Tradersweekly
7
WTI USOil Setting for Short Trade?FX:USOILSPOT TRADE PLAN INSTRUMENT: USOil TIMEFRAME: DAILY DESCRIPTION Although fundamental drive illustrates that OPEC+ will cut oil production by 2mil barrel a day going forward, our Technical Outlook suggests that USOil Price will continue to fall untill we arrive at 70.00. The current rally appears a sentiment drive. We will look to short the market when price visit a 55EMA with some confirmation to short for completion of Daily Bat Pattern. Updates to follow. Disclaimer Charts are educational not investment recommendations
FX:USOILSPOTShort
by edgeAZFX
4