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Overall bullish direction unchangedNews: The short-term impact of Saudi Arabia and Iran announcing the resumption of diplomatic relations on the international energy market is limited. However, in the long term, due to the impact of the development of new energy sources and reduced international investment, OPEC oil-producing countries hope to maintain oil prices at relatively high levels to achieve fiscal balance and ensure domestic financial income. This means that the expansion of OPEC's influence will be beneficial for the global oil market to stabilize and maintain at a relatively high level for a longer period. Technical Analysis: Crude oil is still volatile and closed lower this week, but the real body of the candlestick chart has not broken down. Therefore, it is possible to see a bullish candlestick chart next week, with a preference for low long positions. The weekly support level is around 75.6, and the resistance level is around 80, so it is possible to consider high short and low long positions. On Friday, the daily chart showed a bullish candlestick with a long shadow and closed at 74.7, suggesting an upward trend at the beginning of the week. The support level is around 76.1, and the daily trading position is uncertain, but a long position can be taken if it does not break down. If the market is volatile, it may give a buying opportunity near 75.3, with the target of breaking above 77.4 and possibly reaching above 1 USD. The recent strategy is based on two possibilities shown in the chart, and the second possibility is currently being followed. However, regardless of which possibility is followed, the overall direction is still bullish, and attention should be paid to the retracement of small cycles. Specific operations will be updated in real-time, and everyone should keep track of the market's real-time changes, remain calm, and make accurate judgments. All theories are just references.
TVC:USOILLong
by Navigation-h
Crude Oil (WTI) - Long; Load up on it!Just a near term play here on the anticipated, transitory USD weakness. The main chart ought to be self explanatory - just follow the arrows. (The dates in the chart are only denoted because I am building a sizable option position here, one part of which consists of diagonal spreads.) Fundamentally, Russian oil companies have already figured out - and are using to deliver -, alternate routes for most of their hydro-carbon exports, circumventing current and potential future EU sanctions. (Sales are already exceeding pre-sanctions levels!) As it turns out, contrary to EU and US delusions, Russian oil companies know their own businesses a lot better than their US or EU counterparts. - Who would've thought?! :-O The majority of the anticipated price fluctuations are conditioned on a near term, transitory USD weakness/fluctuations.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Nemo_Confidat
Crude oil: next target 80Scott Sheffield, CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources, a major US shale oil producer, stated at the CERAWeek energy conference held in Texas this week that oil prices have hit bottom and could surge 17% by summer. In an interview, Sheffield said that over the past year ending in December, US production growth was only about half of what was expected and the industry has been facing ongoing issues of declining refinery capacity and inventory. Over the past few months, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has fluctuated around $73-80 per barrel. On Thursday of this week, WTI crude oil prices hovered around $77 per barrel, while Brent crude oil prices were around $83 per barrel. Sheffield expects oil production growth to slow significantly, although not necessarily to decline, due to the constraints of refinery capacity and inventory. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the US produced an average of 11.9 million barrels of crude oil per day in 2022, lower than the record average of 12.3 million barrels per day in 2019. EIA predicts that daily oil production will be 12.4 million barrels per day this year. Sheffield believes that the US may recover to a production level of around 13 million barrels per day in two to three years, which is equivalent to the level recorded in November 2019. He added that this will be a "very slow pace." There are two reasons for the slow growth in US crude oil production: insufficient refinery capacity and limited inventory. Sheffield pointed out that "first, we don't have refinery capacity. If we increase drilling, service costs will rise another 20-30%, which will take away free cash flow. Second, this industry does not have enough inventory." He added, "Our estimate of free cash flow last year was $8 billion, and we expect free cash flow in 2023 to be only $4 billion." As for when oil prices will rise, Sheffield expects that "at some point this summer, WTI will break through $80 and move towards $90 per barrel." The market is changing rapidly, I hope everyone can seize the opportunity and make money The personal free guidance channel is open for a limited time, you are welcome to join
TVC:USOILLong
by Navigation-h
Crude Oil: Ideas and SolutionsCrude oil market trend analysis: Crude oil is still in a volatile state, with a bearish close this week but the body of the candlestick did not break through the support level. Therefore, a bullish close is not ruled out next week, and a long position with a bias towards the downside can be considered. The weekly support is around 75.6, with resistance around 80, and it is possible to consider a long position with a high short. On the daily chart, the price stabilized and rose on Friday, with a long upper shadow and a bullish close, suggesting a bias towards an initial rise at the beginning of next week. Support is around 76.1, and there is a long and short division within the day. If it does not break, a long position can be established first. If the market is volatile, there may be an opportunity to long around 75.3, with the first target above 77.4. Methods to resolve long and short positions: For investors with high-priced long or short positions, they can use rebound market trends to resolve their positions or reduce positions at a high level. Once the market changes, stop-loss positions should be established and positions should be reversed to compensate for losses. For investors with mid-priced long or short positions, they can temporarily observe and not rush to cut positions. If there are opportunities in the market, they can reduce positions appropriately, add positions based on trends combined with technical analysis, and compensate for losses. For investors with low-priced long or short positions, they can use the market downturn to resolve their positions or reduce positions at a low level. Once the market changes, stop-loss positions should be established and positions should be reversed to compensate for losses. For friends who have positions in the market, since I do not know the specific details of your position, it is difficult to provide corresponding strategies to resolve your positions. If you need to resolve your problem, you can enter a personal free channel for further information.
TVC:USOILLong
by Navigation-h
The support is not broken:upYesterday's long positions in crude oil yielded good profits, and after taking profits, crude oil experienced a temporary decline. Currently, the medium to long-term strategy for crude oil is still biased towards long positions. The chart shows two support levels and two possible trends. Aggressive traders can go long now, but they should be mindful of their position sizes. Conservative traders can watch and wait for the next move. From a technical analysis perspective, crude oil rose then fell yesterday, with the highest rebound reaching the 78.0 resistance level and then declining below the 4-hour midline. It fell again at the end of the day, and closed at a low point. The daily chart closed with a bearish K-line, forming a continuous downward trend. From the daily K-line structure, the continuous decline suggests a further decline. However, overall, it is still oscillating within a wide range of 72.0-82.0, and may return to the lower range, but breaking through will be difficult. It may also end up oscillating after a downward probe. The 4-hour chart continues to decline below the midline, and the step-by-step downward trend continues. Yesterday's high point of 78.0 is the critical point for short-term bears and also the short-term defense point for the midline Bollinger band. Below this point, traders can consider short positions. The overall break of the hourly chart support level of 76.0 has turned into short-term resistance. Taking into account yesterday's rebound and subsequent decline, today's trading may repeat this type of oscillating downward trend, with only the strength of the rebound determining the entry point for short positions. In summary, for short-term trading in crude oil today, it is recommended to focus on the resistance level of 78.0-79.0 and the support level of 74.0-73.0. Welcome to the discussion channel and express your thoughts
TVC:USOILLong
by Navigation-h
1
WTI OIL 13 March AnalysisWTI Oil has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern on the price chart, which is a technical analysis pattern that appears when the highs and lows of the price action converge towards each other, forming a triangle shape. This pattern indicates a period of consolidation or indecision in the market, as buyers and sellers are evenly matched, causing the price to fluctuate within a tight range. Traders often watch for a confirmation of either a breakout or breakdown from this pattern, which can indicate a potential trend reversal or continuation. It's important to use additional indicators such as volume, momentum, and moving averages to confirm and evaluate the strength of the move before taking action. The crucial area to monitor is illustrated on the chart, and traders should be cautious of false breakouts. Make necessary move during this breakout or breakdown.
TVC:USOIL
by arnvon1213
WTICOUSD Ready for next long? it's been a while guys! So technically I'm a fibo guy, a test was conducted between 0.5 - 0.618 zone. and friday last 4 hours session retested the 0.5. Zooming out, with what is happening in the world, there's a chance it will dip even further as the world needs more investment for Oil and Gas industry. Short term view, I see a raise in oil to 78 or extend to 79.2 but fundamentally, in long term, in order to have more investment to occur, price has to be affordable for big players to enter. while reading the news, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait all plan to raise their oil production capacity this decade where we will see Supply > Demand in future. Till then, trade safe!
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by shiyishiyi
Will crude oil continue to rebound strongly? Long or short?In the crude oil market, due to the larger-than-expected decline in U.S. crude oil inventories and bullish expectations for Chinese demand, concerns that the Federal Reserve's more aggressive interest rate increases will slow economic growth and weaken oil consumption have limited the rebound in oil prices, so the crude oil market is still uncertain. Judging from the trend, the current crude oil has rebounded strongly in the short term after fluctuating at a low level, but it is not enough to change the daily shorting situation, indicating that the overall trend of crude oil at a large level is still weak.Although the short-term rebound is shown on the 2-hour level chart, the short-term rebound is quite strong, but the pressure is heavy above, and the short-term continuity is a problem. It may continue slightly, but it is difficult to say how much room there is to continue without breaking the low range for the time being.Short-term may be accompanied by resistance loops, the market has returned to operate within the weak range. In terms of strategy, yesterday's thinking was also high-level shorting, but today's thinking is still high-level, supplemented by low-level long-selling. Crude oil is shorted near 77.8-78, and the first target is near 75.5 In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
TVC:USOILShort
by Blessed_V
2
Harnessing Gains from Mean Reversion in WTI Crude FuturesThere are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics. Fortunately, not always. Statistics enables investors and traders in financial and commodity markets. In statistics, mean is also known as the average. It is a number that represents the entire data set. Mean is the sum of the data set divided by number of data points in it. For example, in a group of six men who weigh between 70kg to 80kg with an interval of two kilograms apart, the mean weight of the group is 75kg. Previously, Mint published two case studies looking at WTI crude oil futures. a short position and a long position . Both of these case studies were centered upon the same range-bound price action of WTI futures. Mean Reversion in Financial & Commodity Markets In financial markets, mean refers to the average of all the data observations. For example, let's say in WTI futures, it refers to the average price of a barrel of WTI futures over the observed period. For commodity traders, mean and reversion to the mean is a godsend. Reversion to the mean is a consistent occurrence in finance. Especially in crude oil, ample academic research shows that crude oil prices tend to mean revert. In other words, crude oil prices has a tendency to stray away from the mean but will eventually retrace back to the longer term average. Asset prices oscillate around the average. The bigger the diversion from the mean, the higher the probability that prices will revert to it. Harnessing Mean Reversion in Financial Markets An astute trader can identify the pattern embedded in the price. Such traders carefully ride the path of the asset prices to gain from it and switch their positions around when prices start to trace back. This phenomenon has led to the development of many investing and trading strategies that involve the buying & selling assets whose prices have veered away from their historical averages. At its core, trading the mean reversion strategy involves buying the asset whose values have fallen below the long-term average and waiting for prices to recover back up to the long-term mean before selling it. Trading strategies are based on either taking advantage of mean reversion or momentum in the market. Markets spend greater time in consolidation mode relative to trending phases. Incorporating mean reversion in trading strategies is not only important but potentially lucrative. For those assets, whose prices are far above the mean, the strategy would then involve selling the asset first in the hope of a price correction to the mean. When prices fall, the asset is bought back at a lower price to lock in the gain. Mean Reversion is not Guaranteed. Take Caution. Readers to take caution that mean reversion is not guaranteed. Unexpected highs or lows could indicate a shift in the norm. A significant price change could be structural indicating a new normal. The structural shift may provide a significant headwind or tailwind to asset prices in the longer run. Technical Indicators to help identify Mean Reversion This paper aims to illustrate mean reversion using WTI Crude Oil futures. Crude oil prices are known to follow Brownian motion with mean reversion, according to academic literature. WTI Crude Oil futures follow a lognormal distribution with slowly changing volatility. Brownian motion? Lognormal distribution? Park them aside for now. Mint will cover those topics in another educational paper in near future. Effective mean reversion involves effective timing of trade entry and exits. Trend following indicators, such as moving averages help to identify patterns. Oscillators, such as the RSI, also enable investors to identify overbought and oversold conditions. Bollinger Bands is a complementary indicator to identify mean reversion trend. Mean Reversion in Crude Oil Prices in 2022 and 2023 WTI crude oil prices soared in the first half of 2022 as the war in Ukraine clouded supply projections after sanctions were placed on Russian oil and gas by the US and EU. This reduced the available supply pushing prices higher. However, during second half of the year, the gloomy global economic outlook and recession risks in the US meant that demand for crude oil started to drop. Moreover, COVID outbreaks in China meant that the largest importer of Crude Oil had lesser appetite to buy. Over the past 3 months, WTI Crude Oil has traded in a tight range between $70 to $80 a barrel. The reasons behind the range bound price action are: At the bottom end of the range, there is strong support between $67-72 as that is the price range that the US DoE plans on purchasing oil to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. At the top end of the range, supply outpacing demand, as well as the availability of cheap Russian oil for major consumers – China and India – limits the upside potential for oil. Capex into new oil exploration has dropped as the world starts to shift towards alternative energy sources. Despite the SPR currently at a 40-year low, the Biden administration continues to draw more crude from the reserves to limit fuel price inflation in the US & keeping WTI crude prices lower.
NYMEX:MCL1!Education
by mintdotfinance
USOIL WTI cautiously bullishWith the 4% drop on Tuesday, it appears that USOIL is likely to experience some moderate fluctuations over the next few trading sessions. While there are a number of factors that could impact price action, it seems that the market is currently in a relatively stable state despite the dump. I would like to outline three potential scenarios: USOIL could see some gains early today as the falling wedge looks set for reversal. There may also be some resistance at $77.40, which could limit the extent of any upward movement. with a potential retest of $76.06 Watch out for a potential retest of previous low ($76.07) before finding upwards momentum. Overall, and right now, I think it is difficult to predict exactly how USOIL will perform today and tomorrow but I'm cautiously bullish plus it's Friday! Trade safely and don't take my word for it! ❤️📈🔥
TVC:USOILLong
by foxvolta
1
USOUSD Daily: 22/02/2023: Will buyers push the price up? As you can see, the price is in the bearish structure and we expect the price to see lower levels. I am bearish till the price is below the weekly resistance. But for now, we can see that price move in the trading range for a while and it means there is huge liquidity on both sides of this range. In addition, we are under 50% of the previous bearish wave so we are in discount and searching for a buy setup. In that case, from here or low time frame demand zone with low time frame confirmation we can go long. our first target can be the supply zone and then 50% Fibo level and finally, above 83.31 we can close our position. 💡Wait for the update! 🗓️22/02/2023 🔎 DYOR 💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌
FX:USOILLong
by VahidTradingCR
13
US Oil - Last downward leg- Pt.2- About to become impulsive?Hello traders, in our previous posts about oil we highlighted how we expect cycle wave 2 to complete around the 57-63 area with the final C wave of the corrective structure. We then showed how we applied leading indicators to obtain confirmation of more downside: . We entered at the golden zone (61.8%fibo) strong volume rejection. We are short from @78.18 aiming to ride the microcount outlined in the chart. Stop loss on entry as per the update in previous post. Cheers GMR
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by GMR-Capital